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SP

Solid Power, Inc. (SLDP)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • FY24 revenue was $20.1M, slightly above the $16–$20M guidance range; Q4 revenue (derived) was $4.46M, down ~4% QoQ from Q3 but up ~90% YoY on improved milestone and tech-transfer execution, primarily with SK On .
  • Cash investment for 2024 totaled $79.8M, materially better than prior guidance of $100–$120M, preserving liquidity; year-end total liquidity was $327.5M .
  • 2025 outlook: cash investment of $100–$120M (ex-DOE grant); revenue expected to be consistent with or higher than 2024, with significant 2025 capex on a continuous electrolyte manufacturing pilot line; DOE award for up to $50M is contracted but disbursement timing is uncertain due to a federal pause .
  • Strategic pivot reinforced: emphasize capital-light electrolyte supply and licensing; scale back internal cell manufacturing as OEMs/Tier-1s assume more cell development—seen as a key narrative driver for partner engagement and sampling volumes .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Exceeded revenue guidance: “slightly above our guidance range of $16M to $20M” for 2024, driven by SK On agreements and execution on line-installation and technology transfer steps .
  • Cash discipline: 2024 cash investment $79.8M vs. guided $100–$120M, extending runway; ended 2024 with $327.5M liquidity .
  • Strategic validation: DOE selection for up to $50M to install the first globally known continuous sulfide electrolyte manufacturing process; contract executed in Jan 2025, signaling confidence in the approach and market potential .

What Went Wrong

  • Sequential revenue softness: Q4 revenue (derived) declined ~4% QoQ to $4.46M (from $4.65M in Q3), reflecting milestone timing and still-early commercialization phase .
  • Continued losses: FY24 net loss $96.5M ($0.54/share); Q4 net loss (derived) $(30.62)M as the company invests heavily in R&D and partner programs .
  • DOE funding timing risk: Although the DOE agreement was executed in Jan 2025, disbursements are under federal review, introducing uncertainty to the cadence of the continuous line project .

Financial Results

Note: Quarterly Q4 figures for revenue, direct costs, and P&L line items are derived from FY vs. 9M deltas where not explicitly reported. All amounts USD.

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$2.35 (FY’23 $17.41 − 9M’23 $15.06) $5.08 $4.65 $4.46 (FY’24 $20.14 − 9M’24 $15.68)
EPS ($)$(0.11) (FY’23 $0.37 − 9M’23 $0.26) $(0.13) $(0.13) $(0.17) (FY’24 $0.54 − 9M’24 $0.37)
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$(5.03) (Rev 2.35 − Direct costs 7.38) $(0.36) (5.08 − 5.44) $(2.32) (4.65 − 6.97) $0.88 (4.46 − 3.58)
Gross Margin %−214.2% (−5.03 / 2.35) −7.1% (−0.36 / 5.08) −49.9% (−2.32 / 4.65) 19.7% (0.88 / 4.46)
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$27.98 (FY’23 108.03 − 9M’23 80.05) $32.01 $32.24 $29.48 (FY’24 125.47 − 9M’24 95.99)
Operating Loss ($USD Millions)$(25.63) (FY’23 90.62 − 9M’23 64.99) $(26.94) $(27.59) $(25.02) (FY’24 105.33 − 9M’24 80.31)
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(19.04) (FY’23 65.55 − 9M’23 46.51) $(22.27) $(22.42) $(30.62) (FY’24 96.52 − 9M’24 65.90)

Comparison vs estimates:

  • Consensus estimates (S&P Global) were unavailable due to data access limits at query time; therefore, vs-estimate comparisons are noted as N/A.
Metric vs EstimatesQ4 2024 ActualConsensusBeat/Miss
Revenue$4.46M (derived) N/A (S&P Global unavailable)N/A
EPS$(0.17) (derived) N/A (S&P Global unavailable)N/A

KPIs and Balance Sheet (selected):

  • Liquidity ($USD Millions): Q2 $358.83; Q3 $348.07; Q4 $327.47
  • Cash used in operations ($USD Millions): FY $(63.90) ; 9M $(50.03) ; 1H $(40.18)
  • Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions): FY $15.9; YTD Q3 $11.2; 1H $8.5
  • Deferred Revenue ($USD Millions): Q2 $10.08; Q3 $6.73; Q4 $3.15

No reportable segment breakdown disclosed.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance / ActualChange
RevenueFY 2024$16M–$20M (lowered in Q2) $20.1M actual Above high end (CFO: “slightly above our guidance range”)
Total Cash Investment (Ops + Capex)FY 2024$100M–$120M $79.8M actual Lower than guided (better cash preservation)
RevenueFY 2025N/A“Consistent with or higher than 2024”; no range New qualitative guide
Total Cash Investment (Ops + Capex)FY 2025N/A$100M–$120M, ex-DOE grant New range
Major Capex FocusFY 2025–2026N/ABegin facility engineering/construction of continuous electrolyte pilot line; commissioning mid-2026 New program milestone

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3)Current Period (Q4)Trend
Electrolyte sampling/customer demandIncreased sampling; positive feedback; shipments to potential customers . Continued repeated sampling; constructive feedback .Larger quantities expected from existing customers in 2025; electrolyte-focused model emphasized .Uptrend in sampling scale and focus on electrolyte commercialization
DOE grant/continuous manufacturingSelected by DOE for up to $50M; planning to expand electrolyte production capabilities .DOE contract executed Jan 2025; funding disbursement timing uncertain due to federal pause; 3rd pilot line engineering in 2025; commissioning mid-2026 .Program advancing, with timing watch-item
SK On partnershipAchieved 2024 milestones; line installation on track mid-2025 .Installation “later this year” with subsequent validation; unique breadth of collaboration .Execution remains on track; validation stage approaching
BMW & Ford JDAs/cell developmentContinued A-2 design advances; execution on JDAs .Maintain JDA collaboration; scale back internal cell manufacturing to prioritize electrolyte .Shift of internal resources toward electrolyte, partners continue cell efforts
Macro/EV adoptionSlower-than-expected EV sales backdrop (management context).OEMs converging on sulfide solid-state architectures; strategic emphasis on capital-light path .Industry alignment supportive; commercialization still developing
Supply chain/tariffsNot highlighted in Q2/Q3 as a risk item.Sourcing diversified across US, Korea, Europe; monitoring dynamic tariff landscape .Risk monitored; diversified sourcing mitigant

Management Commentary

  • “We believe our capital light business model focused on electrolyte development supported by in house cell design is unique in our industry and provides a compelling business model moving forward.”
  • “This guidance [2024 revenue] was... slightly above our guidance range of $16 million to $20 million.”
  • “In January 2025, we and the DOE entered into an agreement which formalized the terms of the grant... timing of funding... uncertain due to the January 2025 executive order that paused disbursements of funds pending further review.”
  • “By pursuing this strategy, we will decrease the amount of internal cell development... including scaling back on significant cell manufacturing... Our business model is to supply electrolyte to these cell developers, not to compete with them on the cell front.”
  • “We currently anticipate the continuous process pilot line to be commissioned in the mid‑2026 timeframe.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Electrolyte sampling trajectory: Expect both ongoing back-and-forth with existing customers and larger orders in 2025 as sampling scales up .
  • Strategy rationale: With industry participants accelerating solid-state cell development, SLDP will prioritize electrolyte innovation and supply—its core, capital-light model—while partners carry more of the cell development load .
  • Tariffs/supply chain: Inputs sourced globally (US, Korea, Europe); the team is diversified and monitoring shifting tariff dynamics; will adjust as needed .
  • 2025 execution points: SK On pilot line installation “later this year,” then validation; major 2025 capex tied to continuous electrolyte pilot line .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 could not be retrieved at query time due to access limits; as such, we cannot state beats/misses versus consensus for revenue or EPS. Where estimates are required, mark as N/A and rely on company guidance and reported actuals . Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable at this time.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue quality improving: FY24 slightly exceeded guidance; Q4 gross margin turned positive on a derived basis (19.7%), reflecting milestone mix and lower direct costs—an important proof point as sampling deepens .
  • Cash runway extended: 2024 cash investment of $79.8M vs. $100–$120M guided; liquidity of $327.5M provides flexibility to fund the 2025–2026 continuous electrolyte initiative and partner commitments .
  • 2025 setup: Expect revenue at least in line with 2024 and cash investment of $100–$120M; stock narrative will hinge on visible progress in SK On line installation/validation, DOE funding timing, and tangible sampling-to-award conversions .
  • Strategic focus pays: Pivot to electrolyte—supply to Tier-1s/OEMs and licensing—de-risks capex and aligns with industry direction toward sulfide solid-state architectures .
  • Watch DOE timeline: The executed award is a validator, but disbursement timing is the key risk to project cadence; any clarity/resolution could be a catalyst .
  • Partner milestones: On-time SK On installation and validation later in 2025 would substantiate commercial readiness and support medium-term adoption scenarios .
  • Macro sensitivity: EV demand cadence and potential tariff volatility remain external swing factors; SLDP’s diversified sourcing partly mitigates risk .