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Stabilis Solutions, Inc. (SLNG)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 printed mixed fundamentals: revenue of $17.3M (-12.3% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $2.1M (11.9% margin), impacted by planned marine customer downtime and the roll-off of a large short-duration industrial project; GAAP net loss was ($1.6)M driven by $2.1M non-recurring executive transition costs .
  • Liquidity remained solid with $9.0M cash and $3.5M availability ($12.5M total), and management emphasized “essentially no net debt” at quarter-end alongside continuing operating cash generation ($1.0M) .
  • End-market mix continues to pivot toward growth verticals: marine and aerospace contributed ~51% of Q1 revenue versus 39% in Q1 2024; aerospace revenues grew 147% YoY while power generation was stable .
  • Strategic growth focus reiterated: progressing commercial contracts and FEED work to expand liquefaction capacity on the Gulf Coast (George West and waterfront), with potential FID requiring $20–$25M and ~9–12 months to complete at George West (longer on-water) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong momentum in growth markets: marine and aerospace revenue mix up to ~51% in Q1 2025 (+12ppt YoY); aerospace revenues +147% YoY, with management highlighting increased activity with a major aerospace customer .
  • Continued operating cash generation and liquidity: $1.0M cash from operations in Q1 and $12.5M total liquidity, positioning for growth investments; “essentially no net debt” at quarter-end .
  • Execution-ready platform for Gulf Coast expansion: FEED studies and equipment/infrastructure progress support potential capacity additions; management: “We’re actively positioning the business to scale… targeted opex investments… while continuing to generate consistent positive operating cash flow” .

What Went Wrong

  • Topline and profitability headwinds: revenue fell 12.3% YoY; adjusted EBITDA declined to $2.1M (11.9% vs 15.7% LY) due to lower equipment/labor revenues after a completed contract and planned cruise maintenance week reducing a bunkering event .
  • Non-recurring SG&A: ~$2.1M executive transition costs drove GAAP net loss ($1.6M, -$0.09/sh) versus $0.08/sh in Q1 2024 .
  • No formal quantitative guidance: management discussed growth pathways and capex/timelines but did not issue revenue/EPS/margin guidance ranges, limiting near-term model precision for the Street .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$19.770 $17.627 $17.298 $17.338
GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)$1.469 $0.997 $2.106 ($1.598)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.08 $0.05 $0.11 ($0.09)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$3.355 $2.569 $4.002 $0.160
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$3.103 $2.582 $4.013 $2.069
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)15.7% 14.6% 23.2% 11.9%
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)$3.929 $2.555 $2.171 $1.025

Segment/End-Market Mix and KPIs

MetricQ1 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Marine + Aerospace % of Revenue39% ~40% ~49% ~51%
Aerospace Revenue Growth YoY——+35% YoY (Q4) +147% YoY (Q1)
Marine Bunkering Revenue Growth YoY—~3x YoY (Q3) >500% YoY (Q4) Impacted by planned 1-week downtime
Liquidity (Cash + Availability, $M)$13.3 (YE 2024) $15.6 (Q3) $13.3 (YE 2024) $12.5 (Q1)
Cash & Equivalents ($M)$8.987 (YE 2024) $12.393 (Q3) $8.987 (YE 2024) $9.003 (Q1)
Total Debt ($M)$9.3 (YE 2024) $9.8 (Q3) $9.3 (YE 2024) $9.1 (Q1)

Estimates vs. Actuals

  • S&P Global consensus estimates were not available for SLNG for Q1 2025 (EPS, revenue, EBITDA, counts of estimates: unavailable). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Maintenance CapExFY 2025 and forward~$1.5–$2.0M annually (Q4 call) Reiterated as stable; Q1 highlighted $0.5M in Q1 and majority toward growth FEED Maintained
Growth CapEx (Liquefaction Expansion)Multi-year“Significantly larger capex required with FID” (Q4) FID for George West train would require $20–$25M; 9–12 months to complete (longer if waterfront) Clarified scope/timing
Liquidity/Leverage TargetingOngoingNet debt/EBITDA ~0.03x at YE 2024 “Essentially no net debt” at Q1; maintaining strong balance sheet flexibility Improved leverage
Revenue/EPS/MarginsQ2–Q3 2025NoneNone issued; management expects steady utilization with upside from new contracts N/A (no formal guidance)
DividendsOngoingNone disclosedNone disclosedN/A

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Marine bunkering build-out (Gulf Coast)First-mover, FEED, site identified; milestones needed for FID; 18–24 months post FID Planned 1-week cruise maintenance reduced Q1 events; continuing contract pursuit; evaluating Galveston/Houston Ship Channel expansions Execution progressing; minor timing noise
Aerospace demand3x growth in marine/aerospace mix to ~40% (Q3) +147% aerospace revenue YoY; mix ~51% marine/aerospace Strengthening engagement
Distributed power / data centersDetailed thesis and capabilities; hub-and-spoke vision (Q3) Working “half a dozen AI opportunities”; focus on behind-the-meter power; no current data center contracts disclosed Pipeline building; disclosure disciplined
Liquefaction capacity expansionPurchased 100k gpd train; storage expansion; capex to rise (Q3/Q4) FEED studies continue; FID capex $20–$25M; 9–12 months build at George West More granular capex/timing
Tariffs/macro exposureNot a focus in Q3/Q4“Changes in U.S. trade policy and tariff regimes are not expected to directly impact our business” Low risk from tariffs
Opex and SG&AG&A run-rate stable; Q4 accrual adjustments; onetime costs previewed for Q1 ~$2.1M non-recurring SG&A in Q1 related to executive transition One-time drag realized

Management Commentary

  • Strategy: “We’re actively positioning the business to scale… targeted operating expense investments… yet we continue to generate consistent positive operating cash flow.” – Casey Crenshaw .
  • End-market focus: “We are seeing strong demand across the marine bunkering, commercial aerospace, and power generation sectors.” – Casey Crenshaw .
  • Financial discipline: “With $9.1M of total debt outstanding, we ended the quarter with essentially no net debt and strong balance sheet flexibility.” – Andy Puhala .
  • Capex and FID: “It would take about $20–$25M to finish construction on that train (George West)… about a 9–12 month process… much longer on the water.” – Management Q4 call context .
  • Tariffs: “Changes in U.S. trade policy and tariff regimes are not expected to directly impact our business.” – Casey Crenshaw .

Q&A Highlights

  • Contracting/FID timing: Management expects clarity on commercial contracts supporting deployment of the additional train in Q2–Q3 2025; timing pushed slightly but expectations unchanged .
  • Distributed power pipeline: Multiple AI/data center and microgrid opportunities under discussion; projects range from 6 months to 5 years depending on bridge vs. backup needs .
  • Marine downtime: Quarter impacted by a planned non-sailing maintenance week for cruise operators (~1 week out of 52), reducing a bunkering event .
  • Demand indicators: Team monitors rocket launch/testing schedules and LNG vessel deliveries; customer plans (e.g., Galveston LNG vessels) inform near-term demand outlook .
  • Disclosure posture: No current data center work; management will disclose when material contracts are secured, emphasizing long-term value over short-term announcements .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus estimates via S&P Global for SLNG Q1 2025 (EPS, revenue, EBITDA, counts of estimates) were not available, limiting direct beat/miss benchmarking. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Given the absence of consensus, we expect Street models to lower near-term EBITDA and EPS for Q2 on the back of Q1’s non-recurring SG&A and lower equipment/labor revenue, while likely raising out-year aerospace/marine contributions given pipeline commentary .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix shift to higher-quality growth markets is intact: marine/aerospace now ~51% of revenue; aerospace +147% YoY; expect sustained momentum as contracts convert .
  • Q1’s margin/EPS pressure was largely transitory: planned marine downtime and $2.1M non-recurring SG&A drove the loss; adjusted EBITDA remained positive ($2.1M; 11.9%) .
  • Balance sheet supports optionality: $12.5M liquidity and “essentially no net debt” provide flexibility to fund FEED and growth capex ahead of FID decisions .
  • Gulf Coast expansion is real but phased: FID requires $20–$25M; 9–12 months build (George West) or longer on-water; watch for commercial milestones in Q2–Q3 .
  • Distributed power (including AI/data centers) is a meaningful potential leg: no contracts yet, but active engagements across behind-the-meter use cases; disclosure will follow material wins .
  • Near-term trading: Expect model/estimate ambiguity (no formal guidance) and sensitivity to contract announcements; catalysts include liquefaction FID, data center/AI wins, and additional marine bunkering agreements .
  • Medium-term thesis: Incumbent small-scale LNG supplier with execution-ready logistics and production is well-positioned to capture multi-year demand across marine, aerospace, and distributed power while maintaining capital discipline .

Footnote: *S&P Global consensus data for SLNG was unavailable at the time of this analysis. Values retrieved from S&P Global.