SS
Stabilis Solutions, Inc. (SLNG)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 delivered record profitability metrics: net income of $2.1M ($0.11 EPS), Adjusted EBITDA of $4.0M, and Adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.2% driven by mix shift to aerospace and marine and operating efficiencies .
- Revenue mix pivot toward growth markets accelerated: aerospace +35% YoY, power generation +23% YoY, and marine bunkering +500%+ YoY; aerospace+marine reached ~49% of Q4 revenue vs ~14% LY, offsetting softer oil & gas and lower natural gas prices .
- Liquidity solid: $9.0M cash and $4.3M availability exiting Q4; TTM Adjusted EBITDA implies net debt/EBITDA ~0.03x, supporting growth investments and potential project financing for incremental liquefaction capacity .
- Guidance: no quantitative revenue/EPS outlook; management outlined maintenance capex of ~$1.5–$2.0M annually, potential $20–$25M FID to complete an additional LNG train (9–12 months to complete at George West), and incremental gross margin potential of $10–$15M upon deployment .
- Consensus estimates from S&P Global were unavailable at time of analysis, so beats/misses vs Street cannot be assessed; however, operational records and margin expansion are likely positive stock catalysts given the mix shift narrative and capex optionality [Values retrieved from S&P Global unavailable].
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record Q4 Adjusted EBITDA ($4.0M) and margin (23.2%) on improved utilization and mix toward contracted, higher-quality revenues; Q4 net income rose to $2.1M ($0.11) vs $1.4M ($0.08) in Q4 2023 .
- Strategic mix shift: aerospace and marine reached ~49% of Q4 revenue, up from ~14% LY, with aerospace +35% YoY and marine bunkering +500%+ YoY; management emphasized “multi-year value creation journey” and strong competitive position in these markets .
- Operating cash flow more than doubled YoY in 2024 to $13.7M, funding capex and storage expansion; exiting Q4, cash and availability totaled $13.3M, positioning SLNG to finance growth .
Management quotes:
- “Adjusted EBITDA of $4 million was a record for the fourth quarter… margin also reached a record 23.2%” .
- “Revenue mix in high-growth marine and aerospace increased from 14%… to nearly 50% in Q4 2024” .
- “Operating cash flow more than doubled… driven by improved utilization… and revenue growth within aerospace and marine” .
What Went Wrong
- Reported revenue declined ~4% YoY in Q4 due to lower oil & gas customer revenues and lower natural gas prices despite volume growth; commodity price pass-through muted revenue growth .
- Sequential revenue fell Q3→Q4 ($17.6M to $17.3M) amid timing effects (oil & gas contracts, slower aerospace uptake, marine scaling cadence); management flagged timing across end-markets .
- Q4 G&A declined on accrual adjustments and CEO transition-related items; management highlighted one-time costs expected in Q1 tied to separation, adding near-term noise to expense lines .
Financial Results
Notes:
- All figures are unaudited and in thousands in source; converted to USD Millions above .
- Adjusted EBITDA margins for Q2 and Q3 cited directly from prepared remarks/transcripts .
Segment/End-Market Mix
KPIs and Operating Metrics
Guidance Changes
No quantitative revenue/EPS guidance was provided; management emphasized financing and commercial milestones for growth projects .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategy: “We prioritized asset optimization and operational efficiency… and will prioritize growth within marine, aerospace and distributed power solutions” — Casey Crenshaw (Exec. Chairman & Interim CEO) .
- Q4 performance: “Adjusted EBITDA of $4 million was a record… margin reached a record 23.2%” — Andrew Puhala (CFO) .
- Liquefaction expansion economics: “It would take about $20–$25 million to finish construction on that train… could create $10–$15 million of additional gross margin… ~9–12 months to complete at George West” — Andrew Puhala .
- Liquidity and leverage: “Total debt outstanding… $9.3 million, resulting in a net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of just 0.03x” — Andrew Puhala .
Q&A Highlights
- FID timeline and costs: Management working multiple paths (marine, aerospace, distributed power) and financing options; ~9–12 months to complete at George West post-FID, longer on-water; $20–$25M capex with $10–$15M incremental gross margin potential .
- Marine customers and market: Cruise (Carnival) early mover; container, car-haulers, tankers at varying adoption rates; SLNG aiming to be primary supplier leveraging first-mover advantage on Gulf Coast .
- G&A cadence: Q4 benefited from accrual adjustments (bonus, CEO transition); expect one-time separation costs in Q1; run-rate approximates FY figures thereafter .
- Volumes timing: Gallons delivered up ~8M YoY (FY); Q4 fluctuations reflect oil & gas contract declines, slower aerospace uptake, marine scaling .
- Data centers: No active DC contracts yet; BD ongoing; SLNG will disclose when material; distributed power viewed as the framing for DC opportunities .
Estimates Context
Consensus estimates via S&P Global were unavailable at the time of analysis; as a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses vs Street. Values retrieved from S&P Global unavailable.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix-driven margin expansion: With aerospace and marine growing to ~49% of revenue, Q4 Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 23.2%; sustaining this mix is key for continued profitability improvement .
- Growth project optionality: A completed train (~$20–$25M capex) could add $10–$15M gross margin; financing and commercial offtake will dictate timing and returns (9–12 months to complete at George West) .
- Liquidity support: Cash and availability of ~$13.3M exiting Q4 and net debt/EBITDA ~0.03x provide capacity to pursue selective growth while absorbing one-time costs in Q1 .
- Commodity price sensitivity: Lower natural gas prices can dampen reported revenue despite higher volumes; focus on contracted/term agreements mitigates volatility .
- Near-term trading: Absence of quantitative guidance and Street comparison may limit immediate catalysts; watch for FID announcements, new marine/DC contracts, and financing updates as potential re-rating events .
- Medium-term thesis: First-mover advantage in small-scale LNG bunkering and distributed power, expanding storage and potential liquefaction capacity, and improving contract mix support durable margin and cash generation .
- Expense normalization: Expect Q1 one-time separation costs; G&A run-rate likely reverts to FY levels thereafter, preserving margin trajectory if mix persists .
Appendix: Additional Q3/Q2 Results (for Trend)
- Q3 2024: Revenue $17.627M; EPS $0.05; Adjusted EBITDA $2.582M; margin 14.6%; cash $12.4M; availability $3.2M; contracted revenue 68% .
- Q2 2024: Revenue $18.598M; EPS $0.00; Adjusted EBITDA $2.110M; margin 11.3%; cash $11.5M; availability $4.4M; storage expansion initiated .