Sylvamo - Q2 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Sylvamo's second quarter 2023 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, you will have an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, please press 1, then 0 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw a question, press 1, then 0 again. As a reminder, your conference is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Hans Bjorkman, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, the floor is yours.

Hans Bjorkman (VP of Investor Relations)

Thanks, Leah. Good morning, thank you for joining our call today. Our speakers this morning are Jean-Michel Ribiéras, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and John Sims, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Slides 2 and 3 contain important information, including certain legal disclaimers. For example, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. We will also present certain non-U.S. GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of those figures to U.S. GAAP financial measures are available in the appendix. Our website also contains copies of the second quarter 2023 earnings press release, as well as today's presentation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jean-Michel.

Jean-Michel Ribiéras (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Hans. Good morning. Thank you for joining our call. Let's turn to slide 4, please. In the second quarter, we generated adjusted operating earnings of $1.14 per share, and we achieved $124 million in adjusted EBITDA, both at the high, high end of our guidance range. We generated $32 million of free cash flow and returned $41 million in cash to shareowners via dividend and share repurchases in the second quarter. Price, mix, operation, and input and transportation costs were all favorable to the outlook we provided in our first quarter call. Our second quarter volume was short of expectations, reflecting continued channel inventory correction and weaker than projected demand. John will discuss the industry demand in more detail. Slide 5 compares our second quarter key financial metrics versus prior periods.

In the second quarter, we had $124 million in adjusted EBITDA after $58 million in planned maintenance outages expenses. Our operating teams match our production to our customer demand while executing two-third of our total planned maintenance outages for 2023. I'm proud of our teams that completed these outages safely and efficiently. If we normalize planned maintenance outages expense, our second quarter adjusted EBITDA margin would have been 17%. Now, John will discuss our second quarter performance in more detail. John?

John Sims (SVP and CFO)

Thank you, Jean-Michel, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. Slide six shows our second quarter earnings bridge. As Jean-Michel stated, we earned $124 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, which was in line with our guidance of $115 million-$125 million. Let's discuss the changes versus the first quarter adjusted EBITDA. Price and mix decreased by $38 million due to lower paper prices in Europe, less favorable mix in Latin America and North America, and lower global pulp prices. Volume was the one area that was significantly different than our outlook, and I will discuss more about this on the next few slides. Operations and other costs increased by $10 million, primarily driven by $15 million in higher unabsorbed fixed costs due to increased economic downtime.

Planned maintenance outages costs increased by $58 million as we conducted four major outages versus no outages in the first quarter. Input and transportation costs improved by $24 million, driven by favorable energy, chemical, and transportation costs. Over the next few slides, I'll discuss industry demand and our volume projections, which are central to our revised outlooks, so it's worth spending a few minutes on them. Let's move to slide 7. In the first half of this year, apparent demand for all printing and writing papers, including uncoated freesheet, declined significantly, especially in Europe and North America. The dark bars on this slide show the demand for the first half of 2023 versus demand for the first half of 2022. The lighter bar shows the demand over the last 12 months versus demand over the prior 12-month period.

We regard the lighter bars to be more representative of apparent demand. In the second half of 2022, Europe and North America experienced surges in uncoated freesheet imports, and customers built inventories well above normal levels. At the same time, uncoated freesheet demand began to slow down as some European economies entered recessions, and North America companies pulled back on advertising, some in anticipation of a recession. This impacted direct mail and commercial printing, which contributed to reduced orders for uncoated freesheet in the first half of this year. The next few slides show uncoated freesheet demand data by region and provide context to the recent regional demand trends. In summary, we believe that in 2022, customers were buying more paper than they were using. In 2023, they're using more paper than they're buying. In other words, reducing their inventory significantly.

Let's move to slide 8. Let's look at Europe first, where on average, industry demand declined 5% annually over the last 4 years. Despite the significant swing, the 4-year trend is similar to the long-term demand trend. We now expect channel inventory corrections in Europe to be completed by the end of the year, as many of our customers are targeting lower inventory levels than historical averages. For the balance of the year, we expect the demand to remain weak due to the slower European economies. This will continue to put pressure on our volume and price, and mix in Europe.

With respect to changes in supply, recently, one producer permanently shut down a 175,000 ton uncoated freesheet machine in Austria, and another producer announced the start of a process that may lead to the permanent shutdown of 220,000 ton paper mill in Germany. Let's turn to slide 9 to discuss the North America uncoated freesheet demand picture. Over the past 4 years, on average, North America industry demand declined at 3% per year, which is also close to the long-term demand trend. We expect North America channel inventory corrections to be largely completed by the end of the third quarter. The U.S. economy appears more resilient than many were expecting, and U.S. advertising spend recently grew for the first time in nearly a year.

Assuming this trend continues, we would expect paper demand to improve in the second half of the year. With respect to changes in supply, our one competitor shut down a 240,000 ton uncoated freesheet mill in May. We have started to supply the new business we gained as a result of that permanent shutdown. Let's turn to slide 10 to discuss Latin America. Over the past four years, on average, Latin American industry uncoated freesheet demand was up 3%, which is slightly better than the long-term demand trend. As you can see on this slide, Latin America has a very strong seasonality pattern, with the second half being stronger than the first half. First half 2023 demand was a bit lower than we expected, as customers were also adjusting their inventories throughout Latin America.

Let's turn to slide 11 to summarize our views on uncoated freesheet demand trends. The European and North America first half demand declines were driven by four factors. Number one, the 2022 surge in imports. As you may know, imports returned to normal levels by the first quarter in the United States and in the second quarter in Europe. Number two, significant channel inventory corrections. We now expect these corrections to be completed in the third quarter in North America and the fourth quarter in Europe. Number three, reduced advertising in the US, some in anticipation of a recession. As a recession has not occurred, and the economy continues to be more resilient than many expected. Finally, number four, the slowing economic growth in Europe. We expect continued low economic growth in Europe.

Now, let's turn to slide 12 to review our third quarter outlook. We expect to deliver a third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $130 million-$150 million. We project price and mix to decrease by $60 million-$65 million, primarily reflecting paper price decreases in Europe and the realization of prior price decreases for pulp across the globe. We expect volume to improve by $15 million-$20 million, reflecting seasonally stronger volume in Latin America and North America, and the recent new business we've gained in North America. Operations and other costs are projected to increase by $5 million-$10 million, primarily due to higher unabsorbed fixed costs as we continue to match supply to our customers' demand. We expect input and transportation costs to improve by $15 million-$20 million, with favorable trends in fiber and chemicals.

Planned maintenance outages are projected to decrease by $54 million. We project adjusted operating earnings of $1.20 to $1.55 per share. Let's turn to slide 13 and review our revised 2023 annual outlook. Based on the slower-than-expected demand recovery, we now project adjusted EBITDA of $560 million-$600 million for the full year. This revised outlook reflects lower volume and higher unabsorbed fixed costs from economic downtime in Europe and North America, less favorable pricing and mix in Europe and in Latin America, favorable input and transportation costs, and favorable operations and other costs. We now project free cash flow of $220 million-$250 million. This revised estimate reflects lower adjusted EBITDA, offset by lower cash taxes and a significant reduction in working capital.

We continue to focus on generating cash flow and remain a cash flow story. Our revised outlook indicates continued strong free cash flow of about $5-$6 per share. Importantly, we remain committed to returning $125 million in cash to our shareowners this year. Let's turn to slide 14, please. We will continue to maintain a strong balance sheet, return substantial cash to shareowners, and create value by reinvesting in our business. We will continue to reduce debt through required amortization. We plan to deposit $60 million in escrow, which will allow us to return more than the $90 million limit in our credit agreement. $125 million in dividends and share repurchases will be an increase of about 40% versus the $90 million we returned in 2022.

In the first half of this year, we have already returned $61 million to shareowners. Jean-Michel, I turn it back to you.

Jean-Michel Ribiéras (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, John. Let's put all of this into perspective. I'm on slide 15. Remaining the supplier of choice is paramount to our success in the second half. We will continue to supply the products our customers need, when and where they need them. We're also committing to managing our production to our customer demand, which will help us reduce working capital, and we will continue our efforts to reduce operating costs and selling and administrative expenses. We expect European earnings to remain under pressure, while our Latin America and North American results continue to be resilient. I'll conclude our prepared remarks on slide 16. Despite the difficult industry demand environments in Europe and North America, we are confident in our ability to create shareholders values throughout the cycle.

We have reduced debt significantly since the spin-off, and our financial position is robust at 1.2x net debt to adjusted EBITDA. Our free cash flow generation is strong, and we plan to return $135 million to shareholders this year. We are also reinvesting in our business to reduce costs, strengthening our low-cost position, so that we can exit the downturn in an even stronger competitive position. With that, I'll turn the call back to Hans.

Hans Bjorkman (VP of Investor Relations)

Thanks, Jean-Michel, and thank you, John. Okay, Leah, we're ready to take questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, you may press 1, then 0 on your telephone keypad. One moment, please. We go to a question from George Staphos with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Hi, thank you very much. Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the details. I, I wanted to start, Jean-Michel, John, Hans, if you could have us think how about how you think what the demand trajectory will be once we're through this weak period. I know that's to some degree up there with world peace, but, you know, do you think there's a demand snapback after we're through this, let's call it recessionary period, destocking period? Or do you think the trajectory on demand goes back to what had been the CAGR for North America, for Europe, for South America? What, what is your expectation? What would you at least try to convince us of from your vantage point in terms of the long-term demand trajectory after this period? Or the, or the, the, the intermediate period, I should say. Thank you.

Jean-Michel Ribiéras (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. Morning, George. Thanks for joining the call. We really believe we're going to go Latin and North America and Europe, sorry, to return to long-term trends. The difficulty we have is to put a time back. Demand will come back. Inventory correction is at the end. As you can see on the long-term, we've had a lot of ups and down, and it's more brutal sometimes than we expect, including COVID, but the trend has not changed. The trend, actually, if we take the last four years, is significantly- I mean, it's a little bit better than we expected. To answer your question, we are expecting to go back to longer trends-

George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Yeah

Jean-Michel Ribiéras (Chairman and CEO)

... the same we had in the past.

George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

I, I guess, maybe relatedly, and, and you don't show this here on the slide, and I'd, I'd have to go back and look at my numbers, but I, I seem to remember, you know, after the financial crisis, and here I'm just thinking about North America, uncoated freesheet demand really didn't snap back. It, it didn't decline at the rate that had been experienced during that recession. So it that was an improvement, but it didn't really snap back. So if, if you agree with that premise, and maybe you don't, why should it go back to more of a trend this time around?

Jean-Michel Ribiéras (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. I think there's two comments in that one, and I don't wanna be wrong in my comments. Snap back to prior level-... I'm not sure we're going to get there. I think we will have some snapback because we'll have the inventory correction behind us, but the trend will be the same.

George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay.

John Sims (SVP and CFO)

Yeah, I think, one thing, George, I would say also, just remember, we're looking at apparent demand. Sometimes apparent demand can give not an accurate view because apparent demand is calculated by domestic shipments minus exports plus imports. I think, and we tried to say this a little earlier, is that we think in 2022, actually, demand, which grew in North America and United States based on those that report it, but that was probably overstated. Today, you know, if you look at what's being reported year to date, demand is down almost 17% in the United States, but that is probably overstating the decline, and that's being driven because of the inventory corrections. We do believe that there is some pullback. We've seen that.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that, you know, when you're thinking about where is it gonna bounce back to, I, I think the 17% decline number is too low, given where we think, because of the you know, the way it's calculated with the apparent demand.

George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay. 2... Maybe one last question for me, I'll turn it over. So I realize you're not guiding on the 4th quarter, though implicitly you are, because of the full year and the 3rd quarter. When, you know, we just do the simple algebra, it's not even analysis, you wind up with a relatively wide range for what's implied for EBITDA for 4th quarter. Yes, it's gonna be driven by volume, by pricing, and so on. We get that. What specifically, you know, if you could be somewhat granular here, about, you know, either end markets, regions, pricing, you know, would be the key factors in terms of you know, whether you wind up towards the higher end of your guidance range, implied, both 3rd quarter, for sure, and then 4th quarter, or at the lower end.

Again, as we get to the fourth quarter, you know, that range is, you know, between $70 million, I think, and $140 million in terms of EBITDA. Thank you, guys.

John Sims (SVP and CFO)

Yeah, George, this is John. Thanks for that question. I think we gave the revised range of $560-$600, which is a $40 million range.

George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Yep.

John Sims (SVP and CFO)

If you look at our range, for the third quarter, it's, it's a $20 million range, $130-$150. You subtract what we earned in the first half, which is $332 million, you really get a range of the fourth quarter, about $20 million, you know, $100 million-$120 million. You know, what's driving our revised outlook, both in the third quarter and the full year, I think we talked about it, but it's really demand driven, mostly in Europe, because of the slower economic conditions that we're seeing in Europe. That's also having implications in terms of our views about pricing in the second half of uncoated freesheet in Europe.

It also incorporates our views on pulp pricing, which we've already seen, but we're gonna see the full impact of that in the second half. It also reflects, as we talked about, a little bit lower view, demand view in North America. I will say for the year right now, you know, through the first half of the year, pricing has been relatively stable in North America. In Latin America, we do see a seasonal increase in volume, and that reflects also our views on pricing in the export markets.

George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay. Thank you so much. I'll turn it over.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press 1, then 0 on your telephone keypad. We have a question from Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Paul Quinn (Global Paper, Packaging and Forest Products Analyst)

Yeah, thanks very much. Morning, guys. Thanks for the color on the, the, the, the machine shuts, that, you know, you've noticed in North America and Europe. Maybe the question I've got is: what kind of volume needs to come out to stabilize pricing, in your opinion, in both those markets?

Jean-Michel Ribiéras (Chairman and CEO)

Hi, Paul, Jean-Michel speaking. I would just start by saying in North America, we've seen our prices stable, but we don't have a calculation on what kind of volume has to be taken off. I don't have a number to give you. What is true, which is very volatile in Europe in terms of volume, is a non-integrated producer. You know, in Europe, they are much more important than it might be in Latin America or North America, and right now, with the very low cost of pulp and very low cost of gas, those producers, who sometimes are in the market, sometimes are not in the market, are much more competitive, so we see them, which sometimes you don't. There is a variable here, which is very difficult to answer your question because it depends on raw materials.

Paul Quinn (Global Paper, Packaging and Forest Products Analyst)

Okay, that's fair. Then maybe the, the second question I had, you, you've stated, $125 million return of cash to shareholders. What do you think about that level going forward, and what's your ability to increase that?

John Sims (SVP and CFO)

Thanks, Paul. Hey, we said that, you know, core to our capital allocation strategy and goal is to continuously increase cash returns to shareowners. Core to that is our dividend, and what we want to do is be able to provide a stable, a stable dividend that grows over time. The balance of it in terms of share buybacks is gonna be really based on an opportunistic view. Our first priority, and I should say, maintain a strong balance sheet so that we can invest through the cycle and then provide a stable growing dividend in the long term.

I think the short answer to your question too, where you're trying to get it, it really takes a sense of where, where we think each year in terms of the free cash flow that we generate, in terms of how much whether we can increase it above the $125 or not going forward.

Paul Quinn (Global Paper, Packaging and Forest Products Analyst)

Okay. That's all I had. Thanks, guys.

John Sims (SVP and CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

We go back to the line of George Staphos with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

John Sims (SVP and CFO)

George?

Operator (participant)

Mr. Staphos, do you have your phone muted? We don't hear you at this point. Mr. Staphos, if you can hear us, we are unable to hear you. With the inability to hear Mr. Staphos at this point in time, we don't have any further questions in queue. You may continue.

Hans Bjorkman (VP of Investor Relations)

All right. Thanks, Leah. George, we'll follow up with you after the call. Before I wrap up, Jean-Michel, any closing comments?

Jean-Michel Ribiéras (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. Thank you, Hans, and thanks, everybody, for joining the call. We remain a cash flow story, and we remain committed to returning $125 million via dividend and share purchases in 2023. We remain confident in our ability to generate stronger EBITDA and free cash flows through the cycle. We allocate capital increase to increase shareowners' value. We use cash to maintain a strong balance sheet, return cash to shareowners, and reinvest to strengthen our business. In short, we're still very confident through the cycle about Sylvamo.

Hans Bjorkman (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Jean-Michel, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Sylvamo, and we look forward to continuing our discussions in the days and weeks ahead. That concludes our call for today. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.