SM Q2 2024: Cash Flow to Cut Debt, Buybacks Restart at 1x Leverage
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Debt Strategy
Q: Buyback pace vs debt reduction?
A: Management will prioritize free cash flow for debt reduction following the recent acquisition, opting for share repurchases opportunistically and resuming a higher buyback pace once leverage drops below 1x around mid-2025. -
Production Guidance
Q: How will production evolve in 2025?
A: Management indicated that production will depend on completion and rig cadences, with Q4 guidance near 115,000 barrels/day and an earlier preliminary target of 100,000 barrels/day, pending further detail after HSR approval. -
2025 Production Outlook
Q: What's the 2025 output with the Uinta addition?
A: They are refining 2025 scenarios post-Uinta acquisition, expecting improved capital efficiency once key contract details are in place, with more clarity following HSR approval. -
Operational Costs
Q: Why was LOE low this quarter?
A: Q2 LOE was particularly low at $4.82/BOE due to cost reductions across various areas, though a modest increase is expected in Q3 owing to added expenses like electric generators and water handling. -
LOE Outlook
Q: Will Permian LOE drop further?
A: While plans for 2025 are not finalized, management expects to maintain low LOE by strategically locating wells near existing infrastructure, though some cost increases are possible based on site specifics. -
Woodford-Barnett Plan
Q: What is the plan for Woodford-Barnett?
A: The play has shown promise with naturally flowing wells and 56%–58% oil cuts, but management clarified that no additional turn-in lines are planned this year as they work out further development details. -
Eagle Ford Activity
Q: How will you develop Briscoe C wells?
A: Management plans to co-develop the upper and lower Austin Chalk zones alongside existing Eagle Ford well operations, leveraging solid initial results to enhance capital efficiency. -
Uinta Development
Q: Will new Uinta acres follow the same plan?
A: The approach remains similar to the original XCL acquisition with a focus on optimizing inherited DUCs, capital efficiency, and integrating with established infrastructure. -
Sweetie Peck Acreage
Q: How did you arrive at 20,000 acres?
A: The 20,000-acre figure combines deep rights secured under Sweetie Peck with an additional 9,100 acres on the west, solidifying a robust asset base. -
Altamont Assets
Q: How is Altamont delineated?
A: Altamont is well mapped with strong vertical control—especially in the southern part—though the technology used isn’t as advanced as in XCL, suggesting potential for further upside. -
Klondike Update
Q: What is the status at Klondike?
A: Klondike has four wells online with two recent additions and plans for another four completions this year; however, definitive rates are pending as production ramps up. -
Sweetie Peck Oil Cuts
Q: How will oil cuts trend at Sweetie Peck?
A: Oil cuts are expected to vary; shallower, western areas yield higher percentages while deeper, eastern wells are naturally gassier, reflecting inherent geological differences. -
Well Spacing & Geometry
Q: What about off-azimuth Briscoe C wells?
A: The off-azimuth approach has delivered excellent performance without degrading spacing returns, confirming model expectations and providing operational cost advantages. -
South Texas Oil Quality
Q: Can high oil percentages be maintained in South Texas?
A: Maintaining oil percentages will depend on investment between western (favoring oil) and eastern (favoring gas/NGL) sides, but overall well performance improvements are evident.
Research analysts covering SM Energy.