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SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP, INC. (SMBC)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Diluted EPS of $1.39 was flat sequentially but up 16.8% YoY, driven by higher net interest income and a lower tax rate; noninterest expense included $0.43M one-time consulting cost, implying underlying EPS of ~$1.42 if excluded .
  • Net interest margin expanded to 3.46% (3.47% on annualized-day-count basis), supported by lower funding costs and higher loan yields; management expects further margin tailwinds from CD repricing and easing deposit competition .
  • Credit costs rose: PCL increased to $2.5M on higher net charge-offs, including a $3.8M write-down within special-purpose CRE and a $0.74M C&I charge-off; NPLs increased to 0.56% of loans, while ACL coverage remained robust at 224% of NPLs .
  • Dividend was raised 8.7% to $0.25 (125th consecutive quarterly dividend), signaling confidence in capital and earnings durability .
  • Outlook: pipeline to fund in 90 days rose to $224.1M; management targets mid-single-digit loan growth for FY26; near-term prepayments could temper net growth, but margin and fee initiatives are incremental catalysts .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “We have seen improvement in the net interest margin this year with continued loan growth and moderate operating expense growth,” supporting EPS growth and improved efficiency (54.6%) .
  • Margin drivers include loan yield expansion and easing deposit competition; average loan origination ~7.3% vs ~6.3% for loans maturing in the next 12 months, positioning for further NIM expansion .
  • Fee upside: card network volume incentives added $0.54M in the quarter; annual bonuses will be accrued in FY26 to smooth noninterest income .

What Went Wrong

  • Credit costs elevated: $5.3M net charge-offs including a $3.8M special-purpose CRE charge-off; PCL rose to $2.5M, lifting YoY and sequential credit provisioning .
  • Noninterest income fell 6.3% YoY due to accounting for tax credits shifting from fee income to direct tax reduction under ASU 2023-02 and a $0.11M MSR fair value hit .
  • Legal/professional expenses were elevated by $0.43M consulting costs to negotiate a large vendor contract, temporarily pressuring operating leverage .

Financial Results

Core P&L and Profitability vs prior year, prior quarter, and estimates

MetricQ4 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025
Net Interest Income ($MM)$35.095 $38.143 $39.479 $40.333
Noninterest Income ($MM)$7.767 $6.865 $6.666 $7.280
Provision for Credit Losses ($MM)$0.900 $0.932 $0.932 $2.500
Noninterest Expense ($MM)$25.002 $24.876 $25.391 $25.976
Net Income ($MM)$13.530 $14.653 $15.683 $15.786
Diluted EPS ($)$1.19 $1.30 $1.39 $1.39
Net Interest Margin (%)3.25% 3.36% 3.39% 3.46%
ROA (Annualized, %)1.17% 1.21% 1.27% 1.27%
ROE (Annualized, %)11.2% 11.5% 12.1% 11.8%
Efficiency Ratio (%)58.3% 55.3% 55.1% 54.6%

Wall Street Consensus vs Actual (S&P Global)

MetricQ4 2025 ConsensusQ4 2025 Actual
Primary EPS Consensus Mean$1.255*$1.39*
Revenue Consensus Mean ($MM)$46.26*$45.11*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Note: S&P’s “Revenue” for banks may differ from press-release presentation; press release components sum to $47.61MM (Net interest income + Noninterest income) .

Balance Sheet and Mix

Loans ($MM)Jun-24Sep-24Dec-24Mar-25Jun-25
Gross Loans$3,849.803 $3,966.518 $4,026.979 $4,023.509 $4,099.698
1-4 Residential RE$925.397 $942.916 $967.196 $978.908 $991.553
Non-owner OCCRE$899.770 $903.678 $882.484 $897.125 $888.317
Commercial & Industrial$450.147 $457.018 $484.799 $488.116 $510.259
Ag Production$175.968 $200.215 $188.284 $186.058 $206.128
Deposits ($MM)Jun-24Sep-24Dec-24Mar-25Jun-25
Total Deposits$3,943.059 $4,040.142 $4,210.627 $4,261.382 $4,281.368
Noninterest-bearing$514.107 $503.209 $514.199 $513.418 $508.110
NOW$1,239.663 $1,128.917 $1,211.402 $1,167.296 $1,132.298
Savings$517.084 $556.030 $573.291 $626.175 $661.115
Certificates (Total)$1,335.406 $1,519.676 $1,561.446 $1,606.670 $1,648.594

Asset Quality and Liquidity KPIs

KPIQ4 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025
NPLs ($MM)$6.680 $8.309 $21.970 $23.040
NPLs / Gross Loans (%)0.17% 0.21% 0.55% 0.56%
ACL / NPLs (%)786.17% 658.80% 250.07% 224.08%
ACL / Gross Loans (%)1.36% 1.36% 1.37% 1.26%
Avg Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (%)96.3% 96.4% 94.2% 94.5%
Cash Equivalents & Time Deposits ($MM)$61.395 $146.078 $227.136 $193.105

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Dividend per shareQ4 2025 payout$0.23 $0.25, payable Aug 29, 2025 Raised
Net Interest Margin outlookFY 2026Not quantifiedExpect additional expansion; CD repricing and loan yields supportive Raised/Positive
NIM reporting methodologyFY 2026n/aMove to annualized day-count calculation (reduces quarterly volatility) Method change
Loan growthFY 2026n/aMid-single-digit loan growth expected; near-term prepayments may temper net growth New
CDs repricingNext 12 monthsn/aCDs rolling at ~4.24% to be replaced ~4.0% average Lower funding cost
Capital deploymentOngoingn/aPrefer M&A with shorter earn-back over buybacks at current valuation Strategic stance

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q4 2025)Trend
Net Interest MarginNIM 3.36%; asset yields +32 bps YoY offset by higher funding costs; accretion 9 bps; competition elevated NIM 3.46%; asset yields +4 bps QoQ, funding costs −1 bp; accretion 5 bps; deposit competition eased; expect further expansion Improving
Credit QualityNPLs rose to $8.3M; ACL 1.36%; qualitative factors raised; small ag-related charge-offs NPLs 0.56% of loans; $3.8M CRE write-down; $0.74M C&I charge-off; ACL coverage 224% of NPLs Worsening from low base
Loan Growth & PipelineGross loans +$60.5M QoQ; pipeline to fund in 90 days $172.5M Gross loans +$76.2M QoQ; pipeline $224.1M; mid-single-digit FY26 growth targeted; higher prepayments expected Strong origination; net growth moderated by prepayments
Deposits & FundingDeposits +$170.5M QoQ; brokered CDs opportunistically used; public unit seasonality Deposits +$19.9M QoQ; shift into CDs and savings; brokered CDs $233.6M; public unit deposits down YoY Stable; mix shifting; funding cost relief expected
CRE ConcentrationNon-owner OCCRE ~317% of Tier 1+ACL; none of office loans adversely classified ~302% at bank level; monitoring special-purpose assets; office loans 0.59% of loans, none adversely classified Managing within range
AgricultureSeasonal draws; input costs high; prior quarter noted suspected fraud in single ag relationship Mixed crop outlook; lower commodity prices; higher input costs; lenders stress-testing; some restructurings Macro headwinds
M&A & CapitalExpense discipline; efficiency improved; no explicit M&A color Modest pickup in discussions; prefer M&A over buybacks given earn-back Constructive

Management Commentary

  • “We have seen improvement in the net interest margin this year with continued loan growth and moderate operating expense growth, which improved overall earnings and profitability in fiscal twenty twenty five.”
  • “If we calculated the net interest margin by annualizing the day count in the fourth quarter, it would have been 3.47% as compared to 3.44% in the linked quarter…”
  • “Our average loan origination rate was about 7.3% compared to the average loans we have maturing over the next twelve months of 6.3%.”
  • “We took a $3.8 million charge in the quarter on one of the three [special-purpose CRE] loans… It would not surprise me if we would have additional charge off on the other remaining building.”
  • “Since the last quarter, we’ve seen a modest uptick in M&A discussions… we remain optimistic about the potential for attractive opportunities.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Loan growth momentum steady through the quarter; several larger credits indicated near-term payoffs, implying higher prepayment activity near term, primarily in non-owner-occupied CRE .
  • Margin outlook constructive: origination yields above maturing loan rates and ability to pull down CD specials as competition eased; potential incremental benefit if Fed cuts reduce funding costs .
  • Special-purpose CRE: updated appraisal triggered $3.8M write-down; 42% specific reserve on remaining balances; potential additional charge-offs possible .
  • Deposit mix and CDs: average CDs at ~4.24% rolling to ~4.0%; growth less heavily weighted to CDs in FY26 given strong funding position .
  • Capital allocation: buybacks remain secondary to M&A where earn-back appears shorter at current valuation .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2025 EPS beat: Actual $1.39 vs consensus $1.255; management’s underlying EPS would be ~$1.42 if excluding $0.43M consulting cost, reinforcing the beat narrative *.
  • Q4 2025 Revenue slight miss on S&P’s definition: Actual $45.11MM vs consensus $46.26MM; press-release components totaled $47.61MM, reflecting definitional differences for bank “revenue” *.
  • Street may raise NIM and EPS trajectories given deposit cost relief, origination spread, and fee accrual changes; conversely, credit-loss assumptions may drift higher near term given special-purpose CRE and ag pressures .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.
*Estimates and S&P-defined actuals marked with asterisks.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Earnings quality improved: NIM expansion and operating efficiency gains drove EPS strength despite higher credit costs; dividend increase signals confidence .
  • Margin tailwinds: origination yields > maturing rates, CD repricing lower, and easing deposit competition support further NIM expansion into FY26 .
  • Credit normalization underway: special-purpose CRE and C&I write-downs lifted PCL; ACL remains strong relative to NPLs, but watch for additional CRE charge-offs .
  • Growth pipeline robust: loans to fund in 90 days rose to $224.1M; near-term prepayments may dampen net growth, but management targets mid-single-digit FY26 loan growth .
  • Fee initiatives: card network incentives recognized; FY26 accrual smooths quarterly volatility, offering incremental noninterest income support .
  • Capital deployment optionality: preference for M&A over buybacks given earn-back calculus; improving tangible book value (+14.1% YoY) provides capacity .
  • Trading implications: near-term positive bias from margin and dividend catalysts; monitor headlines around CRE appraisals and ag credit to gauge risk premium adjustments .