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    Simply Good Foods (SMPL)

    Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Apr 21, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$33.19Last close (Apr 8, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$35.45Open (Apr 9, 2025)
    Price Change
    $2.26(+6.81%)
    • Expanding & Accelerating OWYN Growth: OWYN continues to exhibit robust momentum with strong velocity increases and new distribution gains. The management highlighted that OWYN is "one of the fastest-growing brands of scale in the category" with room to double net sales over the next 3–4 years, driven by low household awareness and a relatively limited SKU presence today, implying significant upside as the brand expands distribution and launches new products.
    • Innovative and Synergistic Strength of Quest: Quest is nearing $1 billion in net sales, supported by double-digit growth and a successful relaunch of its innovative products such as the new milkshake platform featuring 45 grams of protein, only 2 grams of sugar, and a favorable club test performance. The Q&A emphasized enhanced product innovation and improved merchandising, which support a continued strong performance for Quest.
    • Favorable Portfolio Shift & Margin Enhancement: The company is executing a strategic shift by phasing out less profitable Atkins SKUs in favor of higher-margin Quest and OWYN offerings. This rebalancing not only offsets any declines in Atkins sales but also demonstrates potential for improved overall contribution margins as the brand mix shifts towards more profitable segments.
    • Tariff and Commodity Inflation Headwinds: The company warned that tariffs could impact around 15–20% of total COGS, potentially resulting in a $5–10 million headwind for fiscal '25, and there are uncertainties about retaliatory tariffs and ongoing inflation pressures on raw materials, which could further pressure margins.
    • Declining Atkins Performance: Atkins, accounting for roughly 30% of net sales, is experiencing significant declines due to lost distribution and reduced promotional support. These weaknesses may drag overall performance, especially if the offsetting growth from Quest and OWYN doesn’t materialize as expected.
    • Dependence on Timely Offsets from New Brands: The plan to counterbalance legacy brand losses relies heavily on accelerating growth in Quest and OWYN. Any delays in execution, distribution expansion, or innovation uptake could jeopardize overall growth and margin improvements, posing a risk if corrective actions are slower than anticipated.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +15% (from $312.20M to $359.66M)

    Strong overall revenue growth was driven by robust performance in Quest (+16.7%) and the introduction of OWYN contributing $33.81M, which more than offset the 11.4% decline in Atkins revenue; additionally, a 16.4% increase in North America revenue supported the overall growth.

    Atkins Revenue

    –11.4% (from $122.76M to $108.65M)

    Atkins experienced a significant decline due to factors evident in the previous period such as potential category challenges and competitive pressures, reducing its contribution despite the overall revenue growth across the portfolio.

    Quest Revenue

    +16.7% (from $180.87M to $210.77M)

    Quest’s strong performance is attributable to continued product innovation and growing consumer demand for high-protein, low-sugar options, building on its momentum from the prior period.

    OWYN Revenue

    Newly Reported – $33.81M contributed

    OWYN's entry and strong market positioning in the plant-based category added a significant revenue stream in Q2 2025, highlighting the success of its recent launch and its potential to drive future growth.

    North America Revenue

    +16.4% (from $303.63M to $353.227M)

    North America revenue increased robustly, supported by strong performances from Quest and OWYN while offsetting declines in Atkins; this regional strength underpinned the total revenue expansion.

    International Revenue

    –25% (from $8.57M to $6.428M)

    International revenue declined sharply, possibly due to subdued demand or strategic focus shifts away from these markets compared to the previous period, thus affecting the overall geographic balance.

    Net Income

    +10.9% (from $33,123K to $36,747K)

    Net income improved as a result of higher gross profit and operating leverage from strong Quest and OWYN performance, even as the portfolio faced cost pressures; this indicates better profit conversion than in the prior period.

    Operating Cash Flow

    –32.7% (from $46,468K to $31,246K)

    Operating cash flow declined significantly due to increased working capital requirements—particularly in inventory buildup associated with the OWYN integration—resulting in reduced cash efficiency compared to the previous period.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Total Reported Net Sales

    FY 2025

    8.5% to 10.5%

    8.5% to 10.5%

    no change

    OWYN Net Sales

    FY 2025

    $135 million to $145 million

    $140 million to $150 million

    raised

    Total Company Adjusted EBITDA

    FY 2025

    4% to 6%

    4% to 6%

    no change

    Gross Margins

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    down approximately 200 basis points

    no prior guidance

    Net Interest Expense

    FY 2025

    $23 million to $25 million

    $21 million to $23 million

    lowered

    Effective Tax Rate

    FY 2025

    25%

    24%

    lowered

    Capital Expenditures

    FY 2025

    $10 million to $15 million

    $10 million to $15 million

    no change

    Net Leverage

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    around 0.5x

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    OWYN Growth & Integration

    Q1 2025, Q4 2024, and Q3 2024 emphasized robust double-digit growth, improving repeat rates, ongoing integration with increasing distribution, and a phased independence strategy for OWYN.

    Q2 2025 highlighted strong revenue growth (10.8% increase, robust retail takeaway and velocity gains), accelerating distribution expansion, and clear progress in integration with an optimistic long‐term outlook.

    Consistent high growth and integration success with increasing optimism as the focus sharpens on scaling distribution and innovation.

    Quest Product Innovation & Performance

    Across Q3, Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 calls there was detailed discussion on launching new product platforms (e.g. bake shop, new flavors, upgraded chips and bars), with supply constraints being addressed and innovative campaigns driving volume growth.

    Q2 2025 continued the emphasis on innovation with new product launches (Overload Bar platform, new ready-to-drink shakes) and strong double-digit growth reported in retail takeaway, building on the momentum from prior quarters.

    Consistent focus on innovation with momentum building; new product initiatives remain central to overcoming competitive challenges and sustaining growth.

    Atkins Brand Performance

    Q3 2024, Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 highlighted short-term declines in net sales and distribution with revitalization efforts underway through new innovation, improved packaging, and early repositioning.

    Q2 2025 reported an 11.5% decline in net sales driven by lower consumption, but also emphasized a reinvigorated focus on innovation and repositioning (e.g. targeting GLP-1 users) to turn around performance.

    Continued short-term decline offset by revitalization efforts and strategic repositioning—the baseline challenge remains, but a stronger focus on emerging trends (GLP-1) is evident.

    Brand Portfolio Rebalancing

    Q1 2025 and Q3 2024 discussed reallocating investments away from lower ROI initiatives (especially in Atkins) and shifting focus toward higher growth brands like Quest and OWYN; Q4 2024 had indirect mentions via cost savings and product mix adjustments.

    Q2 2025 explicitly stressed rebalancing the portfolio by replacing lost Atkins SKUs with more productive Quest and OWYN items, aiming to improve margin mix and overall performance.

    Increased emphasis on portfolio rebalancing to boost margins, with a clearer and more proactive strategy emerging in the current period.

    Commodity Inflation and Tariff Pressures

    Q1 2025 noted that margins were better than expected due to favorable commodity inventory, and Q3 2024 focused on cocoa inflation impacts (with a notable spike) while Q4 2024 briefly mentioned input cost inflation.

    Q2 2025 provided detailed discussion of rising cocoa/CLI and whey inflation, along with the emergence of tariffs impacting 15–20% of COGS (a headwind of $5–10 million), highlighting growing cost pressures.

    Growing cost pressures with tariffs emerging as a new concern, compared to earlier periods where only commodity inflation (particularly cocoa) was emphasized.

    Execution and Timing Risks

    Q1 2025 provided detailed coverage of shipment timing issues, Atkins adjustments, and integration timing risks, while Q4 2024 acknowledged integration and promotional timing challenges; Q3 2024 had limited mention.

    Q2 2025 mentioned timing issues such as delayed shipments for Quest and OWYN revenue acceleration targets, reflecting ongoing risks in coordinating distribution and integration, though not as extensively detailed.

    Ongoing execution risks with similar timing challenges observed; risks remain consistent with earlier discussions though the focus has shifted to slightly different operational milestones.

    GLP-1 Nutritional Trends

    Q4 2024 had initial mentions in new Atkins advertising and Q1 2025 provided detailed emphasis on GLP-1–tailored products and campaigns, positioning Atkins as supportive for GLP-1 users.

    Q2 2025 reinforced the narrative with strong mentions of GLP-1 opportunities, emphasizing consumer research, retailer collaboration, and a strategic focus on weight wellness trends as a key growth lever.

    Increasing focus on GLP-1 trends from a nascent mention in Q4 2024 to a robust, integrated growth strategy in Q1 and Q2 2025, highlighting evolving consumer dynamics.

    Supply Chain Disruptions

    Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 discussed challenges such as capacity constraints for Quest chips and crackers, with production shifts (e.g. second production line) implemented to resolve issues; Q3 2024 mentioned supply challenges briefly.

    Q2 2025 did not raise major supply chain issues, suggesting that earlier disruptions—primarily in chips and packaging—have been resolved, with the company highlighting an agile supply chain.

    Improved supply chain execution with earlier disruptions largely resolved, indicating operational stabilization compared to prior periods.

    Capital Allocation and Cash Generation Strategy

    Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 provided detailed discussion on strong cash generation, debt reduction, and disciplined CapEx, with Q1 2025 sharing specific cash and debt figures; overall the theme was one of financial prudence and preparation for growth.

    Q2 2025 shared updates on significant debt repayments (targeting near-zero leverage by year-end) and modest CapEx expectations, reinforcing the strategy of strong cash flow management and disciplined capital allocation.

    Consistent focus on strong cash generation and reducing leverage; a steady strategy maintained throughout, with Q2 2025 providing updated progress.

    Retail and E-commerce Momentum

    Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 reported solid retail takeaway growth (both physical and digital), with detailed channel performance for Quest, Atkins, and OWYN; Q1 2025 similarly touted robust retail and e-commerce gains.

    Q2 2025 continued to show robust retail and e-commerce momentum, with strong growth in key brands (e.g. Quest at 12%, OWYN surging 57%) and increased focus on expanded distribution, digital marketing, and product availability.

    Sustained and slightly accelerated retail and e-commerce momentum continues to drive overall growth, reflecting an enduring strength across channels.

    Competitive Pressure on Quest Bars

    Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 along with Q1 2025 detailed competitive pressures in the protein bar category, noting modest growth, aggressive competition from smaller brands, and the need for accelerated innovation (e.g. Quest Overload launch).

    In Q2 2025, while there was no explicit deep dive into competitive pressure on Quest Bars, the focus on innovation (such as new product launches and strategic messaging) implies that addressing competitive challenges remains a priority.

    Persistent competitive pressures continue to drive innovation; though less explicitly discussed in Q2 2025, the underlying strategy to differentiate the product remains consistent.

    1. Gross Margins
      Q: How is gross margin guidance evolving?
      A: Management noted Q2 margins were better than planned due to a favorable mix and delayed impact of higher commodity costs, though they expect mid-year pressures from tariffs and inflation to affect margins moderately.

    2. Tariffs Impact
      Q: Are tariffs fixed or improvable?
      A: They explained that while some contracts limit rapid changes, they are actively exploring mitigants to offset a $5–10 million headwind if tariff conditions ease.

    3. Atkins Performance
      Q: Why is Atkins underperforming sales?
      A: Atkins sales declined mainly from lost club distribution and reduced display space, a reduction management plans to offset with stronger Quest and OWYN performance.

    4. Quest Outlook
      Q: What drives Quest’s updated outlook?
      A: Management highlighted robust growth in Quest driven by its salty snacks and bakeshop platforms and expanding distribution, which is pushing retail takeaway into the low double-digits.

    5. OWYN Growth
      Q: What catalyzes OWYN’s revenue acceleration?
      A: They are confident in OWYN’s acceleration, expecting new door wins and increased velocity to drive mid-20% growth despite seasonality lapping prior distribution gains.

    6. Quest Shakes
      Q: What’s different in Quest’s shake relaunch?
      A: The relaunched shakes now deliver 45g protein, 2g sugar, 4g net carbs, differentiating them from the previous version and better meeting consumer demand.

    7. Quest Bars
      Q: How will Quest Bars achieve recovery?
      A: The strategy is to boost innovation with the overload bars, improved displays, and impulse-driven promotions, which early consumer reviews suggest are gaining positive traction.

    Research analysts covering Simply Good Foods.