NUSCALE POWER Corp (SMR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q4 revenue inflected to $34.2M, driven by RoPower FEED Phase 2 activity, while operating loss narrowed to $11.9M (vs. $41.0M in Q3 and $71.1M YoY); reported net loss of $180.3M was largely due to a $170.0M non‑cash warrant fair value expense .
• Liquidity strengthened materially to $446.7M in cash, cash equivalents and short‑term investments after ~97% of warrants were exercised, adding $227.7M of proceeds (including $205.3M in Q4); warrants were redeemed and no longer outstanding, reducing earnings volatility from derivative accounting .
• Commercial and regulatory momentum: long‑lead materials now in production for 12 modules; Standard Design Approval (SDA) for 77 MWe/module remains on track for mid‑2025; intensified engagement with hyperscalers for AI/data center PPAs under the ENTRA1 owner/developer model .
• Near‑term catalysts: first large PPA/anchor offtake, SDA approval (mid‑2025 target), and continued RoPower milestones toward an expected FID in Q4 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Step‑function revenue and sharp improvement in operating loss; management highlighted cost discipline as the company transitions from R&D to commercialization (“quarterly operating expenses decreased from $69.9M in 2023 to $42.7M in 2024”) .
  • Balance sheet fortified: $446.7M of cash/cash equivalents/ST investments; warrant redemption eliminated a source of P&L volatility. CFO: “The elimination of warrants greatly reduces earnings volatility by eliminating the noncash impact of those derivative liabilities” .
  • Manufacturing readiness advancing: “NuScale has 12 modules in production,” supported by Doosan forging long‑lead materials; Alleima ordered to supply steam generator tubes .

• What Went Wrong

  • Headline net loss expanded to $180.3M due to a $170.0M non‑cash warrant fair value charge (vs. non‑cash income of $6.5M in the prior‑year quarter), obscuring underlying operating improvement .
  • Visibility: management avoided providing revenue guidance; when asked, they noted some front‑loading in RoPower FEED but declined to guide quarterly cadence .
  • Commercialization complexity: no signed data center PPA announced yet; CEO flagged deal complexity across owners/operators, EPCs, and financing as the key gating factor (not “bottlenecks”) .

Financial Results

Notes:

• Q4 YoY: Revenue $34.2M vs. $4.6M in Q4’23; Net loss $180.3M vs. $56.4M in Q4’23, with Q4’24 including $170.0M non‑cash warrant expense vs. $6.5M non‑cash income in Q4’23 .
• Q4 cash balance reflects ~$205.3M Q4 proceeds from warrant exercises (total $227.7M) and no outstanding warrants post‑redemption .

Segment/KPIs: SMR does not report traditional revenue segments. Operational KPIs focus on program progress, supply‑chain readiness, and regulatory milestones.

Guidance Changes

No dividend guidance.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “NuScale has 12 modules in production, a testament to the confidence we have in our customer pipeline and our commitment to 2030 delivery.” – CEO, John Hopkins .
• “The elimination of warrants greatly reduces earnings volatility by eliminating the noncash impact of those derivative liabilities on our income statement.” – CFO, R. Ramsey Hamady .
• “We’re pretty much have completed all the technical requirements for the NRC [for the 77 MWe upgrade]… once we get finalization… we’re off to the races.” – CEO, John Hopkins .
• “It’s predominantly around the negotiation and finalization of long‑term power purchase agreements [for data center customers]… the PPAs are what we’re in discussions about right now.” – CEO, John Hopkins .

Q&A Highlights

• Offtake/PPAs: The gating item for data center projects is finalizing long‑term PPAs; ENTRA1’s model enables build/own/operate/transfer while utilities could operate; discussions ongoing .
• RoPower milestones: FEED Phase 2 progressing under Fluor; management expects a RoPower FID in Q4 2025, with continued support and coordination with Romanian stakeholders .
• Revenue recognition in Q4: Two components drove recognition—licensing of technology and subcontract work around EPC activities .
• DOE $800M grant: Company evaluating participation; seeking clarity on program structure and distribution .
• Supply chain/LLMs: Doosan forging long‑lead materials for 12 modules to compress schedules for first deployments; parts are allocated to “first customer to buy the modules,” front‑loading to mitigate bottlenecks .

Estimates Context

• We attempted to retrieve S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus for Q4 2024 and the prior two quarters (Revenue and EPS), but access limits prevented retrieval; as a result, we cannot provide definitive beat/miss analysis versus Wall Street consensus for this quarter (S&P Global consensus data unavailable) [SPGI request error].

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Q4 marked a commercialization step‑change: material revenue from RoPower FEED and a sharply lower operating loss indicate the model can generate revenue pre‑NTP, with operating leverage as programs scale .
• The de‑risked balance sheet (post‑warrants) extends runway and removes a major source of P&L noise, improving the setup into potential offtake announcements and SDA approval .
• Operational readiness is a differentiator: 12 modules’ LLMs in progress and supply‑chain partners (Doosan, Alleima) support compressed delivery timelines for first deployments .
• The near‑term stock narrative hinges on two milestones: (1) a first large PPA/anchor offtake (hyperscaler/utility), and (2) the SDA 77 MWe approval (mid‑2025 target). Either could be a catalyst for re‑rating .
• RoPower’s Q4 2025 FID is an additional waypoint; execution through 2025 on FEED deliverables and supply‑chain readiness will shape confidence in 2030 deliveries .
• Risk framing: headline net losses will remain sensitive to non‑cash warrant derivative marks no longer (warrants redeemed), but revenue volatility may persist without formal guidance; watch PPA cadence and policy dynamics (DOE funding, NRC timelines) .

Appendix: Additional Context (Prior Two Quarters)

• Q3 2024: Revenue $0.5M; Net loss $(45.6)M; Operating loss $(41.0)M; operating expense $41.2M; cash & ST investments $161.7M; non‑cash warrant expense ~$7.2M; progress on FEED Phase 2 and Doosan module production; strong AI/data center interest .
• Q2 2024: Revenue $1.0M; Net loss $(74.4)M; Operating loss $(41.9)M; highlighted authorization of FEED Phase 2 (RoPower) and accelerated AI/data center engagement .

Sources

• Q4 2024 8‑K (Item 2.02) and press release: revenue, net loss, operating loss, operating expenses; cash/warrants; program/regulatory updates .
• Q4 2024 earnings call transcript: commercialization, SDA timing, PPAs, RoPower timeline, revenue recognition, DOE grant .
• Prior quarter releases: Q3 results and financials ; Q2 results and financials .
• Warrant redemption completion (Dec 26, 2024) .

SPGI estimates note: S&P Global consensus data for Q2–Q4 2024 could not be retrieved due to request limits; comparisons versus consensus are therefore unavailable for this report.