Sow Good - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Executive Summary

• Q4 2024 severely disappointed: revenue fell 85.5% YoY to $1.38M and 61.0% QoQ, with gross margin collapsing to (88)% due to a ~$1.7M inventory reserve and deleverage; EPS was $(0.40). Both revenue and EPS were significant misses vs S&P Global consensus (Rev: $5.37M*, EPS: $(0.20)*).
• Management attributed the shortfall to product integrity issues (summer heat “melting”) and intensifying competition (including Mars entering the category), but detailed corrective actions: enhanced packaging, temperature-controlled shipping, and focused SKU/distribution expansion.
• Cost actions and operational fixes underway: payroll cut 38% vs Q3 with an additional 16% targeted in Q1; custom automated packaging machines went live Mar 14; deployment of additional freezers and candy-making machine deferred pending demand.
• Directional outlook only: no formal guidance; management expects Q1 2025 to be “marginally better than Q4” and Q2 to outperform Q1 as distribution expands (Albertsons 1,468 displays; hardware channel wins; KeHe onboards; Middle East and EU launches).
• Stock reaction catalysts: the large consensus misses, negative gross margin from the reserve, inventory build, and lack of formal guidance vs. visible distribution/international pipeline and cost cuts likely drove/drive narrative and positioning.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Operational stabilization and quality initiatives: enhanced packaging and temperature-controlled shipping to resolve “melting” issues; achieved a 97% SQF 2 audit score on Dec 31, underscoring food safety rigor.
• Distribution momentum and pipeline: Albertsons to launch 1,468 displays for summer; hardware channel onboarding with 50+100 store display orders; KeHe program launch with initial $25K order; ongoing European compliance (7 SKUs) and signed UAE distributor.
• Cost and automation: Q4 payroll down 38% vs Q3 with a further 16% reduction planned by end of Q1; two in-house designed automated packaging machines commenced operations on Mar 14 to reduce labor intensity.

What Went Wrong

• Revenue collapse and margin compression: Q4 revenue $1.38M vs $9.52M LY and $3.55M in Q3; gross margin (88)% vs 36% LY, primarily from a ~$1.7M inventory reserve and deleverage on lower sales.
• Operating expense pressure: Q4 OpEx rose to $2.9M vs $1.6M LY, largely from stock comp amortization and growth-related costs; drove GAAP net loss of $(4.17)M vs $1.33M profit LY.
• Competitive intensity and category headwinds: influx of low-quality imports and entry of major candy companies (Mars in Q4), slowing adoption and pressuring trial; lingering inventory and the need for allowances/promotions weighed on sales.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in today's conference call to discuss Sow Good's financial results for fourth quarter and the full year ended December 3rd. Joining us today are Sow Good's Co-founder and CEO, Chief Financial Officer, Brendon Fischer. Following their remarks, we'll open the call for analyst questions. Before we go further, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Slach as he reads the company's safe harbor statement within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that provides important cautions regarding forward-looking statements. Cody, please go ahead.

Cody Slach (External Investor Relations Representative)

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us in today's conference call to discuss Sow Good's financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31st, 2024. Certain statements made during this call are forward-looking statements, including those concerning our financial outlook, competitive landscape, market opportunities, and the impact of the global economic environment on our business. These statements are based on currently available information and assumptions, and we undertake no duty to update this information except as required by law. These statements are also subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those highlighted in today's earnings release and our filings with the SEC. Additional information concerning these statements and the risks and uncertainties associated with them is highlighted in today's earnings release and in our filings with the SEC. Copies are available on the SEC's website or on our investor relations website.

Furthermore, we will discuss adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP financial measure on today's call. The reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to net income or loss, the nearest comparable non-GAAP financial measure discussed on today's call, is available in our earnings press release at our investor relations website. With that, I will turn the call over to Claudia.

Claudia Goldfarb (Co-Founder and CEO)

Thank you, Cody. Good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. 2024 was a defining year for Sow Good. We experienced explosive growth in the first half, followed by a sharp slowdown in the second. Building an entirely new category and product line from the ground up comes with inherent challenges, and like many entrepreneurial, innovation-driven companies, we had to navigate the growing pains of bringing something truly new to market. The two most significant challenges we faced, which heavily impacted the second half of the year, were product melting issues and increased competitive pressures. We have addressed the melting issue by enhancing our packaging to improve product integrity and implementing temperature-controlled shipping where necessary. As for the competitive landscape, the market saw an influx of low-quality, cheap imports from China, which negatively impacted consumer trial and slowed adoption.

At the same time, competition escalated with the entry of major global candy companies as Mars entered the category in Q4 and Hershey followed in Q1 of this year. We are tackling this new reality head-on with a proactive and aggressive strategy, expanding our retail footprint, opening new doors, strengthening our presence in key markets, and continuously innovating and expanding our product portfolio to keep our assortment fresh and exciting. Despite these obstacles, our team remains incredibly proud of what we've built in such a short time, and we are fully committed to navigating these headwinds. Fortunately, we are seeing early signs of recovery in our sales pipeline for candy in Q1 of 2025. While the rebound is gradual, we have a clear and strategic path forward in the freeze-dried candy market.

The challenges of the past nine months, while difficult, have also created opportunities to think outside the box and drive innovative solutions for both sales growth and cost optimization. At Sow Good's core, we are innovators and manufacturers with deep expertise in food production. We are leveraging that experience to expand into adjacent categories with significant growth potential, which I will discuss further during my closing comments. We are excited to return to our innovative roots, but the next six months will require focused execution and discipline. Our priorities remain clear: expanding candy distribution, reducing costs, optimizing our manufacturing footprint, and successfully launching new product categories. Each of these initiatives plays a crucial role in our long-term strategy. While significant challenges remain, we are confident and steadfast in our ability to navigate them successfully. I'll turn it over to Brendon to review our Q4 and year-end 2024 financials. Brendon?

Brendon Fischer (CFO)

Thank you, Claudia. Jumping right into our financial performance, revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $1.4 million, compared to $9.5 million for the same period in 2023. For the full year, revenue increased significantly to $32 million compared to $16.1 million in 2023. The decrease in the fourth quarter was largely due to increased competitive pressure and the spillover effect from product shipment pauses in the third quarter of 2024, as well as increased promotional activity and customer allowances. The full-year increase primarily reflects our transition to selling freeze-dried candy in the first quarter of 2023, the growing market for freeze-dried candy, and our expanded production capacity after adding three new freeze dryers in 2024, as well as the addition of new retail customers. Gross loss for the fourth quarter of 2024 was $1.2 million compared to gross profit of $3.4 million for the same period in 2023.

Gross margin was negative 88% in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to 36% in the year-ago period. The decline was primarily due to an approximate $1.7 million inventory reserve expense taken during the quarter, as well as from higher costs related to our new facility and the impact of lower sales. Excluding this reserve, gross profit was $0.4 million, representing a gross margin of roughly 31.8%. Full-year gross profit increased significantly to $13 million compared to $4.5 million in 2023. Gross margin for the year was 41% compared to 20% in 2023. The increase was primarily due to the strong revenue growth. Operating expenses in the fourth quarter of 2024 were $2.9 million compared to $1.6 million for the same period in 2023. For the full year, operating expenses were $14.5 million compared to $4.5 million in 2023.

The quarter and full-year increases were primarily driven by higher share compensation expense related to the amortization of performance options granted in December 2023, and other operating expenses increased related to our rapid growth. Net loss in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $4.2 million, or negative $0.40 per diluted share, compared to net income of $1.3 million, or $0.26 per diluted share for the same period in 2023. For the full year, net loss was $3.7 million, or negative $0.40, compared to net loss of $3.1 million, or negative $0.59 in the prior year period. The quarterly decline reflects the lower level of gross profit and higher operating expenses in the fourth quarter of 2024. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2024 was negative $2.8 million compared to $2.3 million for the same period in 2023.

For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was $4.1 million compared to $0.1 million in 2023. Moving to the balance sheet, we ended 2024 with cash and cash equivalent of $3.7 million compared to $2.4 million as of December 31, 2023. The increase was primarily driven by the public offering we completed in the second quarter, when we raised $12 million in proceeds net of underwriting fees. We also filed a shelf registration in the fourth quarter, which resulted in aggregate proceeds of $2.2 million. Inventory at year-end increased sequentially to $20.3 million compared to $19.4 million as of September 30th, 2024. The increase was driven by new finished good production partially offset by sales and the aforementioned inventory reserves recognized during the period. This concludes my prepared remarks. I'll now turn the call back to Claudia. Claudia?

Claudia Goldfarb (Co-Founder and CEO)

Thank you, Brendon. I will focus on our three key strategies: our cost-saving initiatives, the opportunities we are pursuing in categories where our management team has deep expertise, and our candy distribution and expansion strategy. These initiatives are fundamental to our strategy as we strengthen our market position, streamline operations, and capitalize on high-growth opportunities beyond our core business. We are focused on creating operational and cost efficiencies while maintaining our exceptional manufacturing capabilities and food safety standards. Notably, we achieved a 97 on our most recent SQF 2 audit awarded on December 31st, 2024. In Q4, we successfully reduced payroll expenditures by 38% from Q3 and anticipate an additional reduction of 16% by the end of Q1. To ensure we continue meeting demand and can scale as sales recover, we have implemented two automated packaging machines, which were put into use on March 14th.

Designed by our in-house engineers, these machines automate our packaging process, previously done entirely by hand, while preserving product integrity. Unlike standard automated product packaging equipment, which often causes significant product breakage, our custom machines were designed to ensure superior product quality. This advancement represents a significant step forward in both efficiency and scalability, as it will allow us to pack more with less labor. Furthermore, we are evaluating opportunities to optimize our manufacturing footprint to better align with our current operational needs. As part of this strategy, we have decided to delay the deployment of freeze dryers 7-12 until production demands warrant their activation. This approach allows us to maintain maximum flexibility as we explore new category and geographic expansion opportunities. Similarly, we are postponing the activation of our candy-making machine.

We firmly believe that bringing candy production in-house is the right long-term move, as it would enhance our ability to innovate, introduce cleaner ingredient formulations to reach a larger market, and improve overall product quality. However, given our current priorities and the need for greater visibility into long-term demand, we believe that the most prudent course of action is to temporarily defer this investment. What has always set our management team and company apart is our manufacturing expertise, our passion for innovation, and our ability to identify trends and opportunities in the consumer landscape. While we are encouraged by the sales recovery underway, we have used the slowdown to strategically assess new growth areas. We are excited to enter into two key categories in which our team has extensive experience: beef jerky and freeze-dried yogurt snacks. We have shared samples with several customers, and the response has been tremendously positive.

Due to this early enthusiasm, we plan to launch both categories in the second half of the year. Yogurt melts will be introduced under the Sow Good brand, while beef jerky will launch under a separate brand currently being developed. We are motivated by the opportunities these expansions present and encouraged by the initial market reaction. We will continue to keep you updated on these exciting developments. Transitioning to our sales update, we are seeing encouraging momentum in the U.S., particularly in the hardware store channel, alongside key retail partnerships and seasonal initiatives that are expanding our brand presence. World Market is launching three SKUs next month, increasing our footprint in specialty retail. Albertsons Grocery is launching 1,468 of our displays for their summer set, positioning us for peak seasonal sales.

At Five Below, we're introducing a new summer SKU, Summer Taffy, along with two additional new items, Caramel Crunch and Mint to Be during Q2. At Ace Hardware Stores, we've begun the onboarding process with their distribution warehouse following a tremendously positive reception at their recent trade show. Due to the excitement surrounding our products, 50 stores have already placed orders for full displays, which will ship within the next two weeks. We expect further expansion when the onboarding process is completed and our products are available in their distribution center. Similar to our success with Ace, we saw strong demand at Orgill, a hardware store distributor. 100 new stores have placed display orders, with one larger store ordering five displays to create a significant brand presence at launch. Additional orders continue to roll in, strengthening our entry in the hardware retail space.

KeHE, one of the largest distributors in the U.S., will officially launch us through its new brand program in May. However, due to early demand, we've already received an initial $25,000 order from one of their customers, positioning us for continued growth in the second half of the year. Our international efforts continue with encouraging growth opportunities in the Middle East and Europe. During a recent trip in Dubai, we secured a contract with Xplor Investments, a leading distributor in the UAE. We are now preparing to ship our first orders for four UAE-compliant SKUs, which include a container for Qatar and an initial test order for Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. To support this expansion, Arabic-language packaging is currently being printed, and shipments are scheduled to leave in the next three to four weeks.

In Europe, we received a very positive reception at ISM Germany, one of the largest European snack trade shows. The European freeze-dried market is an emerging category with limited competition from high-quality brands and room for a market leader to establish dominance. We are in the final stages of securing compliance approvals for seven SKUs. We adjusted our launch timeline to the second half of the year to allow us to develop five SKUs that fully comply with EU ingredient regulations, ensuring that we launch with seven SKUs, giving us a diverse and competitive product lineup. With final formulations now complete, we are moving through the last regulatory steps. Once approved, our European distribution partner, who's one of the largest in the regions, will actively pursue retail and wholesale placements, giving us a strong foundation in a market with minimal high-quality competition.

We are executing on multiple fronts, expanding domestically with new retail partnerships and channels, increasing our presence in the hardware space, and making meaningful international inroads in the Middle East and Europe. With a strong retail pipeline, strategic distributor partnerships, and a continued emphasis on quality and innovation, we are confident in our ability to drive sustained growth in the quarters ahead. However, until we have greater visibility into our sustained level of sales, we are unable to provide formal sales guidance. What I can say is that Q1 will be marginally better than Q4, and with the planned launches, Q2 will outperform Q1, setting the stage for continued growth. Our recovery this year will be steady and methodical, and we remain enthusiastic about the opportunities ahead and unyieldingly committed to providing innovative and top-quality product to our consumers and long-term growth to our shareholders.

Operator will now open the call for Q&A.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, ma'am. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. To remove yourself from the queue, you may press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from George Kelly of Roth Capital Partners. Your question, please, George.

George Kelly (Analyst)

Hey, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions. First, a question on the new product categories. I'm just curious if you could explain a little bit sort of what attracted you to freeze-dried yogurt and beef jerky, and how quickly are you able to—I think you said a two-half launch, but do you have a good sense of production? Have you already started sort of testing the product, or how quickly do you think you can start to offer something there?

Claudia Goldfarb (Co-Founder and CEO)

Hi, George. It's good to talk to you today. Yeah, over the last six months, obviously, freeze-dried candy has provided some challenges for us. During that time period, we were really looking at what are the adjacent categories that make sense for us to manufacture to launch where we have a lot of expertise. As most of you may remember, a lot of our management team has extensive expertise in jerky, specifically in the pet space, that translates incredibly well to traditional CPG. That was an easy one for us to get started. As we looked at the jerky market, one of the things that we really saw was something that was very additive-filled, so a lot of salts, a lot of preservatives. Our approach to that market is cleaner ingredients, a really high-quality jerky production process that doesn't require a lot of capital expenditures.

We have started to make samples for various different buyers. The response has been overwhelming. It is something that, for a second half of the year launch, seems very feasible, again, because it does not require a lot of CAPEX. It is something that we know incredibly well. That is incredibly exciting. On the freeze-dried yogurt melt, it is something that we have always planned on doing. When we launched candy, going into adjacent freeze-dried categories was always part of the plan. Right now, because of the slowdown, we have the production capacity to do so. We already had the formulations in place. We already had extensive testing in place. Putting that into operation, again, not a lot of CAPEX, very easy for us to do, and we already have the expertise in-house to do so.

George Kelly (Analyst)

Okay. Understood. Second question for you. Your comment that you're seeing some signs of improvement, I guess I'm curious, is it mostly that you're getting kind of new inbounds from accounts you hadn't talked to before? If you look at your core customers and the velocity trends you're seeing, are you seeing stabilization there? Is that part of the improvement as well? What I'm just trying to get at is what is the consumption, and how has that trended? Is there still a lot of inventory at retail that will take longer to go through? There's just not a lot of visibility into that. If you could give any more data points there, that would be helpful.

Claudia Goldfarb (Co-Founder and CEO)

Yeah. No, great question, George. We're seeing both. We're very excited about the new launches that we detailed in the calls. We're having conversations with additional retailers for further Q2 launches that we're really excited about. We're definitely seeing recovery in our key customers, whether it be Five Below, convenience stores, other grocery stores such as Albertsons. Where we ended the last six months, I think they had a lot of inventory on hand. They worked their way through it. They've worked their way through it. Now we're able to refresh their assortment, restock them with the items that we're seeing continued traction in. That's pretty much limiting itself to six key everyday SKUs that are performing stably very well. I don't know if that answered your question, George, or if you want a little bit more clarity?

George Kelly (Analyst)

Yeah. Is there anything else you can share just about velocities at retail?

Claudia Goldfarb (Co-Founder and CEO)

One of the things that we're seeing, at least over the last 12 weeks, I was looking at the Circana data a few days ago. If you look at Circana, we're at about 17 units per door, and that's pretty much what we're seeing consistently over the last 12 weeks. I think that our sales on a per-door basis have very much solidified and stabilized. Now part of the go-forward strategy is, again, focusing on those everyday SKUs that are performing very well every day, day in and day out, whether it be C-store, traditional grocery, or now we're seeing a lot of lift in the hardware places and kind of those niche underserved categories that we haven't looked at before, and continuing to innovate, putting great SKUs forward that are a little bit different and differentiated than what's currently on shelf.

George Kelly (Analyst)

Okay. Just one last one for me, and then I'll hop back in the queue. What is the strategy to get inventory down? Do you plan to get more aggressive, either discounting or doing whatever it takes? If you could just give a little sort of inventory update. Is the quality of inventory—how should we think? $20 million, how should we think about the quality of that? Is any heat affected? Thank you.

Claudia Goldfarb (Co-Founder and CEO)

No, of course. Thank you for the question, George. The inventory that we have, the beautiful thing about freeze-dried technology is that it really increases the shelf life of everything that we put out there. The inventory that we have still has, at a minimum, a two-year shelf life. We are not concerned about that portion of it. It is stored in a temperature-controlled environment. Heat, moisture, and some of the other things that could be impactful to the inventory should not affect them. In regards to what we are doing to work our way through it, we are continuing to be really aggressive about the new doors that we open. That really is a key strategy that we are focused on. In regards to market penetration, we still have—we are in the low double digits in regards to the number of doors that we could be in.

We have put together a phenomenal sales team who is being very aggressive and is super excited and passionate about the traction that they are seeing in the market. That is really the focus. Let's get these great quality SKUs that we see that are performing very well every day, and let's get them on shelf and continue to market them aggressively in regards to social media and things of that nature to get them off shelf as well.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Claudia for closing remarks.

Claudia Goldfarb (Co-Founder and CEO)

Everyone, I just really want to thank you for your time today. We really appreciate that you are following our story and that you've been part of our journey. The next several months are going to continue to be challenging, but we're very excited and committed to the opportunities that we're seeing in front of us. We look forward to updating you on all of the exciting things that we see happening over the next few months. Thank you, everyone, and have a great day.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.