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Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $19.2M, at guidance midpoint and above the upper end of preliminary range; GAAP net income surged to $119.6M driven by a $154.3M gain on sale of the Maritime business, while adjusted EBITDA was -$10.2M, below prior Q2 guidance and a notable miss on profitability .
  • Q3 2025 revenue guidance introduced at $19.5–$21.5M and FY 2025 revenue guidance maintained at $85–$95M; company reiterated ending 2025 with >$100M cash and marketable securities .
  • Operational focus centered on Space Services ramp (27 satellites launched in H1), WildFireSat percent-complete revenue recognition, and NOAA radio occultation revenue step-up; CEO highlighted broad-based government demand and an 8‑figure, five‑year Space Services award from a repeat customer .
  • Risk flags: late 10‑Q triggered an NYSE notice with a February 19, 2026 cure date; costs tied to accounting transition and auditor change may pressure near-term cash flows; adjusted EBITDA and non‑GAAP operating loss came in worse than prior Q2 guidance, a profitability headwind .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “This quarter marked a transformative milestone … the successful sale of our Maritime business. This strategic transaction … eliminating debt entirely and establishing a robust balance sheet” (CEO) ; GAAP net income of $119.6M reflects the $154.3M gain on sale .
  • Government and sovereign demand strengthening: NOAA RO data contracts ($11.19M for RO and $2.5M GNSS‑R pilot), NASA CSDA extension ($1.2M), and ESA historical data procurement broaden the public-sector revenue base .
  • Product innovation: successful airborne demo of Hyperspectral Microwave Sounder with targeted first orbital launch in early 2026; expanded RF GEOINT capabilities, including AI-transcribed public voice from space for near-real-time situational awareness .

What Went Wrong

  • Profitability miss vs guidance: Q2 adjusted EBITDA of -$10.2M versus prior guidance of -$8.5 to -$6.5M; non‑GAAP operating loss of -$12.4M vs guidance -$13 to -$11M (in range but at worse end) .
  • Core revenue decline YoY/QoQ amid portfolio transition: Q2 revenue fell 24.5% YoY to $19.2M (vs $25.4M) and 19.7% QoQ (vs $23.9M) as Maritime sale and timing of Space Services recognition weighed on reported revenue .
  • Reporting execution: late 10‑Q filing for Q2 resulted in NYSE notice; CFO flagged increased accounting-transition costs and auditor selection timing, potentially pressuring near-term cash/cash flow targets .

Financial Results

Core P&L and Margins vs Prior Year and Prior Quarter

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$25.399 $23.876 $19.182
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.68) $(0.77) $3.72
Non-GAAP EPS ($USD)$(0.41) $(0.63) $(0.48)
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$10.911 $8.784 $9.376
Gross Margin (%)43% 37% 50%
Operating Loss (GAAP, $USD Millions)$(12.352) $(25.430) $(23.527)
Operating Margin (GAAP, %)(49)% (107)% (123)%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(1.206) $(7.908) $(10.229)
Net Income (GAAP, $USD Millions)$(16.559) $(20.657) $119.590

Notes:

  • Q2 2025 GAAP net income reflects a $154.305M gain on sale of a business and a $12.008M loss on extinguishment of debt; FX gain was $6.965M .
  • Non-GAAP EPS excludes one-time items and fair value changes detailed in reconciliations .

Actual vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue Consensus ($USD)$30.1667M*$22.6827M*$18.4447M*
Actual Revenue ($USD)$25.399M $23.876M $19.182M
EPS Consensus (Primary, $USD)$(0.54)*$(0.9567)*$(0.846)*
Actual EPS ($USD)$(0.68) $(0.77) $3.72
Actual Non-GAAP EPS ($USD)$(0.41) $(0.63) $(0.48)
EBITDA Consensus ($USD)$2.8765M*$(8.9672)M*$(7.5812)M*
Actual EBITDA ($USD)$(6.131)M $(10.540)M $124.955M
  • Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.
  • For comparability on EPS, non‑GAAP EPS is more indicative of operating performance given the large GAAP gain in Q2 2025 .

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO, $USD Millions)——$208.9
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)—$36.463 cash; $136.0 incl post-sale (as of end-April) $117.6 (as of 6/30/25)
Satellites Launched YTD——27 in H1 2025
Shares Outstanding——32.7M (as of 10/24/25)
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$(16.827) $(17.330) $(37.830)

Segment breakdown: not disclosed for Q2 2025; Q1 2025 revenue mix: 57% Americas, 34% EMEA, 9% APAC .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)Q3 2025N/A$19.5–$21.5 New
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$85–$95 $85–$95 Maintained
Cash & Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)FY 2025 (year-end)>$100 >$100 Maintained
Non-GAAP Operating Loss ($USD Millions)Q2 2025$(13)–$(11) Actual $(12.378) In line (slightly better)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)Q2 2025$(8.5)–$(6.5) Actual $(10.229) Lower than guided
Non-GAAP EPS ($USD)Q2 2025$(0.49)–$(0.42) Actual $(0.48) In range

Other metrics (OI&E, tax rate, segment-specific guidance, dividends): not provided.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
AI/technology initiativesLaunched AI-WX and AI-S2S weather models integrating proprietary satellite data Hyperspectral Microwave Sounder airborne demo; first orbital launch targeted early 2026 Expanding capabilities; milestone achieved
Space Services pipelineFocus on H2 ramp; largest Can$72M WildFireSat contract; debt eliminated post maritime sale 8‑figure, five‑year Space Services award; 27 satellites deployed in H1 Strengthening demand; increased backlog visibility
Government/sovereign demandEmphasis on sovereign capabilities and public-sector buyers Broad-based inbound interest from governments; manufacturing facilities in U.S., Canada, U.K., Europe Rising public-sector engagement
RF reconnaissanceContract for daily RF collection and geolocation Expanded RF GEOINT incl. AI-transcribed public voice from space; low latency delivery Product expansion; differentiated offering
NOAA/NASA programsNOAA RO opportunities highlighted; NASA data delivery ongoing NOAA $11.19M RO award and $2.5M GNSS‑R pilot; NASA CSDA $1.2M extension Contract wins; revenue step-up expected
Reporting and auditorFY 2024 restatement behind; operational efficiency focus Progress on new auditor RFPs; late Q2 10‑Q led to NYSE notice Transitional; near-term reporting risk

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “The successful sale of our Maritime business … eliminating debt entirely and establishing a robust balance sheet. … We remain focused on execution … and committed to investing in the areas that fuel long term growth” .
  • CFO: “We deployed 27 satellites in the first half … giving clarity into the revenue ramp up for the next half of the year. … We expect a step up in revenue from our NOAA RO weather data effort … starting in late September” .
  • CEO on demand: “We’re having … more inbound interest than I’ve seen in a long time … particularly with RFGL … we actually have people coming to us because we have a good product” .
  • Product roadmap: “Our microwave sounder … completed flight testing … targeting the first launch … early 2026” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Space Services award: 8‑figure, five‑year contract from repeat customer; revenue recognition upon assets in orbit with 12–18 month lag, with billings along the way .
  • Q2 revenue midpoint lowered ~$0.5M due to longer close timing on larger contracts and auditor transition; H2 confidence driven by deployed satellites, WildFireSat percent-complete, NOAA RO step-up .
  • 2026 growth: Targeting 20%+ revenue growth excluding Maritime .
  • Cash flow: Ending 2025 >$100M reiterated; near-term cash pressures from accounting transition could limit H2 operating cash flow positivity .
  • Headcount ~365; selective hiring to support government opportunities and manufacturing expansion .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 revenue beat consensus ($19.182M vs $18.445M*); Non‑GAAP EPS beat (−$0.48 vs −$0.85*), while GAAP EPS was an outlier at +$3.72 due to one-time gains .

  • EBITDA significantly missed consensus given GAAP adds (Actual EBITDA $124.96M vs $(7.58)M* consensus), but Adjusted EBITDA was −$10.23M (operational metric) .

  • Consensus participation: ~3 revenue estimates and ~5 EPS estimates in Q2; prior quarters show modest coverage implying potential estimate volatility*.

  • Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Narrative shift to sovereign/government demand and Space Services backlog: Q3 guide implies sequential revenue growth; watch execution milestones and on-orbit timing for revenue recognition .
  • Profitability caution: Q2 adjusted EBITDA and non‑GAAP operating loss were worse than prior guidance; monitor opex discipline and cost normalization post auditor transition .
  • Contract catalysts: NOAA RO ($11.19M), GNSS‑R pilot ($2.5M), NASA CSDA extension ($1.2M), ESA data supply, plus the 8‑figure Space Services award—support H2/2026 revenue visibility if execution stays on track .
  • Reporting risk management: late Q2 10‑Q NYSE notice creates a compliance overhang; timely filings and auditor appointment are near-term sentiment drivers .
  • Product differentiation: expanded RF GEOINT and upcoming microwave sounder add unique data modalities, potentially strengthening pricing power and cross-sell into weather/defense ecosystems .
  • Cash cushion: ~$117.6M at 6/30 and reiterated >$100M by year-end afford runway; free cash flow still negative—watch conversion of RPO to cash and percent-complete contracts .
  • Tactical: Expect stock sensitivity to: (1) contract announcements, (2) auditor/filing updates, (3) Q3/H2 margin trajectory vs guide, and (4) Space Services deployment milestones .
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