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Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2024 delivered revenue of $28.6M (+29% YoY), GAAP gross margin of 45% (+200 bps YoY), and positive operating cash flow of $14.0M with free cash flow of $5.1M; Adjusted EBITDA improved to $(3.1)M from $(9.2)M in Q3’23 .
  • Record quarterly bookings: $40.0M annual contract value (ACV), alongside seven satellites launched (total launched to date: 186) supporting Weather and Space Services missions .
  • Management completed restatement and filed Q2 and Q3 10-Qs; preliminary FY24 guidance was materially lowered versus May guidance due to lower NOAA RO volumes, Space Services payload underperformance, and restatement-related costs; focus shifts to operational efficiency and closing the maritime business sale to deleverage .
  • Near-term stock catalysts: closing of the maritime business sale (management expects 6–8 weeks), debt repayment, and clarity on 2025 outlook post-transaction; management emphasized “hell-or-high-water” provision and court-monitored weekly progress toward close .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record ACV bookings of $40.0M in Q3, largest in company history; awards include $6.7M from NASA and $3.8M from NOAA .
  • Cash generation inflection: cash from operations $14.0M and free cash flow $5.1M in Q3; management achieved long-stated FCF goal despite restatement complexity .
  • Strategic technology progress: demonstrated two-way Optical Inter-Satellite Links (OISL) laser communication up to 5,000 km on small form-factor satellites; potential to enhance secure, rapid data relay for future missions .

Quoted remarks

  • “We have filed restated financial statements… We are now entering a new chapter with a focus on reliable execution and operational efficiency.” — CEO Theresa Condor .
  • “We achieved long-forecasted objectives and set a new quarterly booking record.” — Executive Chairman Peter Platzer .
  • “With the restatement now complete, Spire is refocusing on the future and opportunities ahead.” — CFO Leo Basola .

What Went Wrong

  • FY24 outlook was cut materially vs May guidance, reflecting lower NOAA RO volume, bespoke solutions revenue shortfalls, timing/recognition of Space Services, and higher restatement/transaction costs .
  • Space Services setback: a four-satellite constellation payload from a third-party vendor underperformed; customer not paying for datasets, pressuring ARR and Q4 revenue .
  • Liquidity/financing overhang until maritime sale closes; Blue Torch covenants were breached earlier, and company indicated intent to seek additional equity/debt financing to bridge cash needs .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$22.13 $25.40 $28.57
GAAP Gross Margin %43% 43% 45%
GAAP Operating Margin %-77% N/A-48%
GAAP Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(23.34) $(16.56) $(12.47)
GAAP EPS (Basic & Diluted)$(1.12) $(0.68) $(0.50)
Non-GAAP Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(16.27) N/A$(10.58)
Non-GAAP EPS$(0.77) N/A$(0.43)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(9.20) N/A$(3.12)
Operating Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$(10.81) N/A$13.99
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$(16.15) N/A$5.08

KPIs and Business Mix

KPI / MixPrior PeriodCurrent
ACV Bookings (Quarter)N/A$40.0M (Q3’24)
ARR ($USD Millions)$112.82 (Jun 30, 2023) $111.89 (Jun 30, 2024)
ARR Customers785 (Jun 30, 2023) 663 (Jun 30, 2024)
ARR Solution Customers813 (Jun 30, 2023) 702 (Jun 30, 2024)
ARR Net Retention Rate112% (Q2’23) 85% (Q2’24)
Subscription Revenue Mix72% (Q2’23) 78% (Q2’24)
Geography Mix (Q2’24)Americas 55% / EMEA 30% / APAC 11% (Q2’23) Americas 55% / EMEA 37% / APAC 8% (Q2’24)

Notes

  • QoQ trends: Q3’24 revenue grew +12.5% vs Q2’24 and GAAP EPS improved from $(0.68) to $(0.50) .
  • YoY trends: Q3’24 revenue +29% and gross margin +200 bps; GAAP operating margin improved 29 pts YoY .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (May 15, 2024)Current Guidance (Mar 3, 2025)Change
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2024$122.0 – $132.0 $108.0 – $110.0 Lowered
Non-GAAP Operating Loss ($USD Millions)FY 2024$(11.0) – $(1.0) $(38.2) – $(36.2) Lowered
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2024$7.0 – $15.0 $(20.9) – $(18.9) Lowered
Non-GAAP Loss Per ShareFY 2024$(1.11) – $(0.70) $(2.39) – $(2.31) Lowered
Basic Weighted Avg Shares (Millions)FY 202424.2 24.0 Maintained (minor)

Drivers

  • NOAA RO volume came in lower; bespoke solutions revenue underperformed; Space Services revenue recognition shifted to data-delivery phase; restatement and transaction costs elevated OpEx .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3 2024)Trend
AI/Tech initiativesQ1: AI-powered long-range forecasting model for a financial firm; multipurpose RO data for high-res weather Demonstrated OISL lasers between satellites (secure, near-instant data relay), advancing comms capability Expanding technical differentiation
AviationQ2: MoC with Thales & ESSP for space-based air traffic surveillance (Phase A signed 6/28/24) Continued RFP/RFI activity; EURIALO context; Europe delays due to lawsuits/restatement noise Pipeline intact; timing noise
Space ServicesQ2: Reclassification of R&D costs to COGS; timing shifts to data-delivery revenue Payload underperformance (four satellites) causing customer non-payment; impacts ARR/Q4 Temporary setback; remediation needed
Government/DefenseQ2: Strong federal bookings season; contracts with uplifts RF geo-intelligence demand robust; US policy tilt to commercial solutions post-election Positive structural demand
Macro/NOAA RO volumesQ2: Lower NOAA RO award vs prior year; FX headwinds NOAA RO volumes cited in FY24 guidance reset Headwind persists
Regulatory/LegalQ2: Late filings; covenant waivers with Blue Torch Restatement complete; maritime sale “hell-or-high-water”; court-weekly progress Moving toward closure/deleveraging

Management Commentary

Prepared remarks highlights

  • “Inflection point… entering a new chapter with reliable execution and operational efficiency.” — CEO .
  • “Record bookings… achieved long-forecasted objectives.” — Executive Chairman .
  • “We shifted revenues between years (<$10M in any year), reduced gross profit trend 15–20 pts due to R&D costs in COGS; no cash impacts.” — CFO on restatement mechanics .

Important quotes

  • On Q4/Q1 noise: “Over this period… Q4 and Q1… noise over the signal is going to be pretty high… post transaction close, trajectory resumes.” — Executive Chairman .
  • On CapEx: “CapEx for replacement… $5M to $7M… future satellites more capable.” — Executive Chairman .
  • On maritime sale: “Hell-or-high-water provision… weekly briefings; counterparty expects close by early–mid April.” — Executive Chairman .

Q&A Highlights

  • Near-term outlook: Management framed Q4 as a “blip” due to restatement and transaction costs; expects growth to resume post-close; NOAA RO and payload issues explain softer 2H .
  • Space Services quality event: Third-party payload underperformance on a four-satellite constellation led to customer non-payment; remediation impacts ARR and Q4 .
  • Capital needs and deleveraging: Bridge financing contemplated until maritime sale closes; post-close, intent to be debt-free with healthier balance sheet .
  • Government demand: Positive policy stance toward commercial space solutions post-election; continued engagement across RF geolocation and weather .
  • Technology roadmap: OISL progress positions Spire to offer secure, low-latency data relay for customers; potential merchant offering under consideration .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q3 2024 EPS, Revenue, and EBITDA was unavailable at the time of this request due to data access limits. As a result, beat/miss analysis versus Street is not provided. Values would be retrieved from S&P Global if available.

Where estimates may need to adjust

  • FY24 consensus likely requires downward revision given the company’s preliminary FY24 ranges and disclosed Q4 pressures (NOAA RO volumes, payload issues, restatement/transaction costs) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution inflection: Q3 showed stronger fundamentals (revenue growth, margin expansion, positive FCF) and record bookings; monitor sustainability into Q1/Q2 as restatement/transaction noise fades .
  • Near-term caution: Management flagged Q4/Q1 softness and liquidity needs prior to maritime sale close; trading risk tied to timing of close and interim financing .
  • Structural demand intact: Government and security markets support Weather and RF geo-intelligence; Space Services remains attractive with revenue recognition aligned to data delivery .
  • Technology differentiation: OISL advances and continued satellite launches strengthen data moat; potential monetization pathways beyond internal use .
  • Guidance reset: FY24 guidance materially lowered vs May; recalibrate models to preliminary ranges; expect post-transaction growth profile to skew higher without maritime drag .
  • Watch NOAA and payload remediation: NOAA RO volumes and third-party payload performance were concrete drivers of near-term variance; look for updates on replacement datasets and customer outcomes .
  • Transaction catalyst: Successful maritime sale closing is the key de-leveraging catalyst; weekly court updates suggest progress; outcome remains pivotal for equity and credit narratives .

Appendix: Source documents consulted

  • Q3 2024 press release and financial tables .
  • 8-K Item 2.02 and Exhibit 99.1 (Q3 2024 results release) .
  • Q3 2024 earnings call transcript (Mar 4, 2025) –.
  • Q2 2024 10-Q (filed Mar 3, 2025) for trends and KPIs –.
  • Strategic business update press release (Nov 4, 2024) and 8-K (Nov 5, 2024) – –.
  • NASA wildfire monitoring press release (Oct 29, 2024) .
  • Q1 2024 8-K press release and guidance (May 15, 2024) .