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SG

Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 results and the 8‑K 2.02 press release have not been published as of Nov 20; management said they would provide “select third quarter 2025 financial highlights… in early December 2025” . Consensus for Q3: revenue $21.17M*, EPS −$0.40*, EBITDA −$6.82M*.
  • Management guided Q3 revenue to $19.5–$21.5M and reiterated FY 2025 revenue $85–$95M, setting expectations modestly below consensus at the midpoint .
  • Positive narrative drivers: an eight‑figure, five‑year Space Services contract; continued government demand (NOAA RO expansion, EUMETSAT €3M renewal); and microwave sounder progress toward an early 2026 launch .
  • Key risk factors: non‑GAAP losses persist; operating cash flow remains pressured into H2; accounting/auditor transition adds uncertainty to timing of filings .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • “Just this afternoon, we announced an 8‑figure, five‑year space services contract from a repeat commercial customer,” highlighting land‑and‑expand and pipeline quality .
    • NOAA and ESA contracts underpin weather data demand; ESA procured historical weather data, and EUMETSAT renewed a €3M RO data contract .
    • Hyperspectral microwave sounder completed aircraft flight testing; first on‑orbit launch targeted early 2026, strengthening differentiated data set and AI/physics modeling .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Non‑GAAP losses and negative adjusted EBITDA persisted in Q1 and Q2 (Q1 adj. EBITDA −$7.91M; Q2 −$10.23M), implying continued margin pressure before Q3 .
    • Operating cash outflows elevated in H1 (H1 operating cash flow −$43.50M; Q2 free cash flow −$37.83M) despite balance sheet improvements .
    • Auditor transition and complexities from the Maritime divestiture delayed filings; management could not provide firm dates, raising process risk .

Financial Results

Note: Q3 actuals are not yet reported; Q3 cells reflect consensus estimates* or company guidance where explicitly provided.

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025E
Revenue ($USD Millions)$23.88 $19.18 $21.17*
GAAP EPS ($USD)−$0.77 $3.72 −$0.40*
Non‑GAAP EPS ($USD)−$0.63 −$0.48 n/a
Gross Margin % (GAAP)37% 50% n/a
Gross Margin % (Non‑GAAP)41% 52% n/a
Operating Margin % (GAAP)−107% −123% n/a
Operating Margin % (Non‑GAAP)−48% −65% n/a
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)−$7.91 −$10.23 −$6.82*
Revenue Growth vs Prior YearQ1 2025 YoYQ2 2025 YoYQ3 2025 YoY
Revenue YoY ($)−$10.95M (from $34.83M) −$6.22M (from $25.40M) n/a
Revenue YoY (%)−31.4%−24.5%n/a
Sequential TrendsQ1→Q2Q2→Q3E
Revenue (% change)−19.6% (to $19.18M) +10.3% (to $21.17M*)
Adj. EBITDA ($ change)−$2.32M (to −$10.23M) +$3.41M (to −$6.82M*)

Segment/Geography (latest available):

  • Q1 2025 revenue mix: Americas 57%, EMEA 34%, APAC 9% .

KPIs and Balance Sheet (context through Q2):

  • Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): $208.9M (Q2)
  • Satellites deployed H1: 27 (many for Space Services)
  • Cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities: $117.6M (Q2)
  • Shares outstanding: 32.7M as of Oct 24, 2025
  • Headcount: ~380 (Q1); ~365 (Aug)

Values retrieved from S&P Global*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($M)Q3 2025—$19.5–$21.5 New Q3 range introduced
Revenue ($M)FY 2025$85–$95 (Q1 guide) $85–$95 (reiterated) Maintained
Non‑GAAP Operating Loss ($M)FY 2025$(43)–$(35) Not updated yetn/a
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2025$(24)–$(16) Not updated yetn/a
Non‑GAAP Loss per Share ($)Q2 2025$(0.49)–$(0.42) Actual: −$0.48 (Q2) In‑line outcome
Cash on Balance Sheet ($M)FY 2025 exit>$100 target >$100 reiterated Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ‑2 (Q1 2025)Q‑1 (Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 context)Trend
Space Services demand/pipelineMyriota expansion; land‑and‑expand approach 8‑figure 5‑year award; Q3 revenue guide supported by deployed satellites Await Q3 update; continued gov/commercial interest Improving
Government weather/RO procurementNOAA targeting 20k RO/day; pricing per sounding Expected RO step‑up starting late Sept EUMETSAT €3M renewal confirms demand Positive
RF geolocation/space reconnaissanceNew non‑US gov daily RF collection award AI‑powered voice RF processing; inbound demand Ongoing differentiated RF capability Strengthening
AI/tech initiativesAI‑WX/AI‑S2S models launched; optical ISL progress Microwave sounder flight test; early 2026 orbit target Sounder program continues toward launch Advancing
Tariffs/macroTariffs impact minimal due to low satellite cost ——Stable
Organizational/filingsDebt eliminated; >$100M cash target Auditor RFP; filing delays due to maritime complexities Q3 update scheduled early Dec Normalizing but watch timing

Management Commentary

  • CEO on strategic contract momentum: “Just this afternoon, we announced an 8 figure, five year space services contract from a repeat commercial customer” .
  • CEO on differentiated weather tech: “Our microwave sounder has successfully completed flight testing… targeting the first launch… early twenty twenty six” .
  • CFO on Q3/FY outlook: “For the third quarter, we expect revenues to be in the range of $19,500,000 to $21,500,000… For the full year, we reiterate… $85,000,000 to $95,000,000” .
  • CEO on NOAA RO expansion: “20,000 RO profiles per day… all studies… show [RO] impact… I feel very good that… budgets will continue to increase” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Revenue ramp drivers: Deployed satellites for Space Services, WildfireSat percent‑completion revenue, and NOAA RO step‑up underpin H2 acceleration .
  • Cash/EBITDA trajectory: Aim to end FY with >$100M cash; adjusted EBITDA breakeven targeted as entering 2026, with sequential improvement in H2 .
  • Pipeline and demand quality: Increased inbound interest, especially in RFGL and sovereign capabilities across US/Europe; long‑term partner focus .
  • Guidance context: Q3 range reflects close timing and auditor transition complexities; FY maintained on visibility from launches and government contracts .
  • Product roadmap: Microwave sounder platform and aircraft exposure analytics broaden data offering to governments and airlines/insurers .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 consensus: revenue $21.17M*, EPS −$0.40*, EBITDA −$6.82M*, vs company guidance $19.5–$21.5M. Guidance midpoint ($20.5M) sits modestly below revenue consensus, suggesting a potential slight miss if results align to midpoint* .
  • FY 2025 consensus revenue $89.21M* aligns within reiterated $85–$95M guidance; consensus FY EPS $2.07* likely reflects Q2 GAAP gains from divestiture, not normalized run‑rate profitability* .

Values retrieved from S&P Global*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Expect near‑term catalyst from the early‑December Q3 business and financial update; positioning suggests mixed headline risk on revenue vs consensus with improving forward visibility .
  • Government contracts (NOAA RO, EUMETSAT, WildfireSat) and an eight‑figure Space Services award support H2/H1’26 growth; watch for additional contract disclosures .
  • Margin recovery hinges on execution and scale benefits from newly deployed satellites; non‑GAAP losses persist but are narrowing sequentially into 2026 .
  • Cash runway (> $100M exit target) and debt elimination de‑risk operations, though accounting transition may influence timing of filings and reported metrics .
  • Differentiated data stack (RO, RFGL, microwave sounder, AI models) strengthens competitive moat in sovereign/weather markets; monitor sounder launch milestones .
  • Trading implications: Potential volatility around Q3 update if revenue prints below consensus; upside optionality from new contract announcements and NOAA procurement clarity .
  • Medium‑term thesis: 20%+ revenue growth target into 2026 on gov/commercial demand plus operating leverage from recurring data products and Space‑as‑a‑Service .