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SG

Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue and EPS beat Street consensus, while EBITDA missed; FY 2024 revenue grew 13% to $110.5M as ARR and Space Services contributed, despite revenue deferrals from restated accounting treatment *.
  • Management guided Q1 2025 revenue to $22–24M, non-GAAP operating loss of $(13)–$(11)M, adjusted EBITDA $(9.5)–$(7.5)M, non-GAAP EPS $(0.65)–$(0.63), and ARR $128–$130M; FY 2025 revenue ex-maritime is expected to grow ~12–17%, and ~20% in 2026 .
  • Remaining performance obligations (RPO) reached $216.4M with ~31% expected to recognize in the next 12 months, reinforcing multi-period revenue visibility .
  • Stock reaction catalysts: closing of the ~$241M maritime sale to Kpler and debt elimination , the expected 2H 2025 revenue ramp as new Space Services launches begin data delivery , and commercialization of AI-driven weather models .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “As we close out 2024, our focus shifts to the opportunities ahead in 2025… to accelerate project timelines, speed up product launches… and increase margins—ultimately driving greater stockholder value.” — CEO Theresa Condor .
    • ARR momentum with quarter-end ARR of $112.2M and forward ARR expected to rise to $128–$130M in Q1’25 .
    • Strategic wins: CAD 72M WildFireSAT award from Canadian Space Agency and U.S./European defense tailwinds underpinning Space Reconnaissance unit formation .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Revenue recognition restatement pushed Space Services revenue into later periods, creating a near-term “air pocket” (Q4 2024 through Q2 2025) and compressing gross margin reported trend .
    • Elevated non-recurring accounting/legal costs tied to restatement and the maritime transaction impacted Q4 and Q1 cash flow and profitability .
    • A Space Services payload from a third-party underperformed nominal expectations, weighing on revenue/ARR trajectory into Q4 .

Financial Results

  • Core P&L versus prior periods and consensus
MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD)$24.204M*$28.568M*$21.659M*
Primary EPS ($USD)$(0.35)*$(0.43)*$(0.83)*
EBITDA ($USD)$(5.143)M*$(7.002)M*$(21.466)M*
  • Actual vs Wall Street Consensus (Q4 2024)
MetricConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD)$20.342M*$21.659M*
Primary EPS ($USD)$(1.81)*$(0.83)*
EBITDA ($USD)$(15.270)M*$(21.466)M*
  • FY and balance sheet KPIs
KPIValueNote
FY 2024 Revenue$110.5M
FY 2024 Cash from Operations$(18.5)M
FY 2024 Free Cash Flow$(45.0)M
RPO (12/31/24)$216.4M; ~31% due next 12 months
Cash & Equivalents (12/31/24)$19.206M
ARR (Q4 2024 quarter-end)$112.2M
ARR Guidance (Q1 2025)$128–$130M
Debt (12/31/24)Current: $93.936M; LT: $4.618M

Notes: Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD)Q1 2025N/A$22–$24M New
Non-GAAP Operating Loss ($USD)Q1 2025N/A$(13)–$(11)M New
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD)Q1 2025N/A$(9.5)–$(7.5)M New
Non-GAAP EPS ($USD)Q1 2025N/A$(0.65)–$(0.63) New
ARR ($USD)Q1 2025N/A$128–$130M New
FY Revenue Growth (ex-maritime)FY 2025N/A~12–17% New
FY Revenue Growth (ex-maritime)FY 2026N/A~20% New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Revenue recognition restatementQ3 2024 PR detailed restatement scope; lowered gross margin trend; deferral of pre-space revenue Reiterated deferrals causing limited Space Services revenue Q4’24–Q2’25; revenue flow resumes 2H’25 Stabilizing; revenue to re-accelerate in 2H’25
Maritime sale & deleveragingStrategic update announced $241M sale; intent to eliminate debt Continued dual-track close in 2–4 weeks; court date set May 28 Near-term catalyst
Defense & intelligence demandQ3 call: RF geo-intel interest; EU/UK defense budgets rising Space Reconnaissance unit formed; awards in maritime data/aviation to defense orgs Strengthening secular driver
AI weather models & NVIDIACollaboration with NVIDIA Earth-2 noted Launched AI WX and AI S2S, 1,000x faster than physics-based; early customer traction Commercialization underway
ARR & bookings trajectoryRecord ACV bookings in Q3; NOAA/NASA wins ARR expected to lift to $128–$130M in Q1’25 Improving
Program ops & efficiencyQ3 noted ops launches and OISL progress PMO established, drive standardization, margin uplift initiatives Execution focus rising

Management Commentary

  • Strategic focus: “By sharpening our operational efficiency, we strengthen our position to tackle the challenges of severe weather and global security while providing proven on-orbit capabilities…” — CEO Theresa Condor .
  • Revenue timing: “This timing issue created a few quarters with limited space services revenue from the fourth quarter of 2024 through the second quarter of 2025… We expect to see that revenue start to flow in as we head into the second half of 2025.” — Interim CFO Tom Krywe .
  • Market drivers: “We officially established a space reconnaissance business unit… demand driven by global security remains robust.” — CEO Theresa Condor .
  • ARR outlook: “We expect to finish Q1 2025 with ending ARR ranging between $128 million and $130 million.” — Interim CFO Tom Krywe .

Q&A Highlights

  • 2H 2025 ramp: Growth weighted to 2H’25 driven by existing committed contracts, Space Services entering data delivery, and CSA wildfire contract timing .
  • Maritime sale: Intense engagement with buyer; reiterated 2–4 week close timeline; court date May 28 if necessary .
  • Free cash flow: Near-term pressured by one-time restatement and transaction costs; underlying path to FCF-positive intact post-transaction .
  • Gross margin trajectory: Restatement lowered reported gross margin baseline; leverage model expected to drive margins higher over time .
  • Guidance clarifications: Q1 guidance includes maritime; analysts should model its removal post-close consistent with FY 2024 annualized trajectory .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2024 comparisons vs consensus:
    • Revenue: $21.659M actual vs $20.342M consensus — beat*.
    • EPS: $(0.83) actual vs $(1.81) consensus — beat*.
    • EBITDA: $(21.466)M actual vs $(15.270)M consensus — miss*.
  • Prior quarter/prior year trajectory shows sequential decline due to restatement-related deferrals; management flagged this “air pocket” through Q2 2025 before re-acceleration in 2H 2025 *.

Notes: Consensus comparisons marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term prints (Q1–Q2 2025) likely remain noisy due to restatement timing and transaction costs, but committed RPO ($216M) and Q1 ARR lift to ~$129M support the 2H 2025 inflection .
  • Maritime sale closing is a high-impact catalyst (debt elimination, reduced interest burden), potentially improving FCF trajectory and de-risking the balance sheet .
  • Defense/intelligence and sovereign programs in Europe/North America are emerging growth pillars; the Space Reconnaissance unit and recent awards bolster multi-year demand visibility .
  • AI-driven weather products launched on NVIDIA Earth-2 can expand addressable market and support ARR/pricing mix, with early customer validation from energy/commodities verticals .
  • Model revenue cadence: expect limited Space Services revenue until post-launch commissioning; recognize ramp from 2H 2025 onwards as data delivery begins .
  • Trading lens: Watch for 1) maritime deal close headlines, 2) Q1 ARR realized vs $128–$130M guide, and 3) contract flow/launch milestones that confirm the 2H revenue ramp .
  • Medium-term thesis: Ex-maritime FY 2025 growth of ~12–17% and ~20% in 2026, underpinned by data subscriptions, defense applications, and Space Services; margin expansion expected as operating efficiency initiatives scale .

Notes: Where values are marked with *, they were retrieved from S&P Global.