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SiriusPoint Ltd (SPNT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • SiriusPoint delivered its 10th consecutive underwriting profit; consolidated combined ratio was 91.4% and Core combined ratio 95.4% as California wildfires added 10.9 points but were offset by favorable development and lower attritional losses .
  • EPS of $0.49 and total revenues of $727.3m both beat Wall Street consensus (EPS $0.26, revenue $688m); EPS beat reflected accretion from share repurchases and stable investment income—key near‑term catalyst alongside AM Best/Fitch outlook upgrades to Positive .
  • Net premiums written rose 20% and gross premiums written rose 12% (Core), driven by Insurance & Services and targeted retention of profitable books; A&H saw double‑digit growth and improving margins .
  • Book value per diluted common share ex‑AOCI increased to $15.15 (+3.5% QoQ) and annualized ROE was 12.9%, within the 12–15% “across the cycle” target; BSCR estimated at 227% .
  • Management reiterated FY25 guidance: net investment income $265–$275m, expense ratio 6.5–7%, and double‑digit net premium growth, while announcing a $0.50 quarterly dividend on Series B preference shares .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “Fourth consecutive quarter of double‑digit premium growth,” with NPW +20% and GPW +12% in Core; Insurance & Services drove margin improvement (combined ratio 94.0% vs 98.4% YoY) .
    • Earnings quality improved: attritional combined ratio fell 3.0 points (to 90.0%); acquisition cost ratio −1.4 pts; OUE ratio −1.2 pts; favorable PYD of $34m (5.5 pts) marked the 16th consecutive quarter of releases .
    • Ratings momentum: AM Best and Fitch revised outlooks to Positive, citing stronger balance sheet and reduced catastrophe exposure—supports capital access and valuation .

  • What Went Wrong

    • California wildfires added $59m of cat losses (10.9 combined ratio points), compressing Core margins and Reinsurance profitability (Reinsurance combined ratio 97.1% vs 84.2% YoY) .
    • Consolidated combined ratio rose to 91.4% from 84.9% YoY; total cat losses larger versus prior year, partially offset by favorable reserve development .
    • Investment income declined $8m YoY (to $71.2m) due to a smaller asset base post buybacks; effective tax rate increased 8.5 pts with Bermuda corporate income tax starting in 2025 .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)685.5 562.2 612.8 727.3
Net Income available to Common ($USD Millions)90.8 4.5 (21.3) 57.6
Diluted EPS ($)$0.49 $0.03 $(0.13) $0.49
Combined Ratio (Consolidated, %)84.9% 84.4% 94.4% 91.4%
Core Combined Ratio (%)91.4% 88.5% 90.2% 95.4%
Net Investment Income ($USD Millions)78.8 77.7 68.9 71.2

Segment breakdown (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024):

Segment MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Reinsurance GPW ($USD Millions)356.4 354.8
Reinsurance Underwriting Income ($USD Millions)39.9 8.4
Reinsurance Combined Ratio (%)84.2% 97.1%
Insurance & Services GPW ($USD Millions)524.3 635.1
Insurance & Services Underwriting Income ($USD Millions)4.4 20.1
Insurance & Services Combined Ratio (%)98.4% 94.0%
Core Net Services Fee Income ($USD Millions)18.1–19.8 (reported variations) 18.9–19.0 (reported variations)

Key performance indicators:

KPIQ1 2024Q1 2025
Catastrophe Losses ($USD Millions)~0 67.9
Catastrophe Loss Ratio (Core, pts)~0 10.9
Favorable Prior Year Development ($USD Millions, consolidated)11.1 34.2–34.3 (consol./core)
Attritional Combined Ratio (Core, %)93.0% 90.0%
Book Value per Diluted Common Share ex‑AOCI ($)14.64 (Q4 2024) 15.15
Annualized ROE (%)15.4% 12.9%
BSCR Ratio (estimate)265% (Q3 2024) 227%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Investment Income ($USD Millions)FY 2025Not disclosed numerically $265–$275 Established range
Expense Ratio (Other Underwriting Expenses, %)FY 2025Not disclosed6.5–7.0% Established range
Net Premium GrowthFY 2025Not disclosedDouble‑digit expected Established target
ROE TargetAcross the cycle12–15% 12–15% maintained Maintained
Preference DividendQ2 2025 (payable May 30)Prior cadence$0.50 per Series B share Maintained/affirmed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Catastrophe risk and underwriting disciplineReduced cat volatility and improved combined ratio; set PMLs lower; Q4 cat losses from Hurricane Milton but strong PYD Wildfires added $59m; still profitable; more retrocession bought; moderation of rate decreases expected; disciplined growth only where margins adequate Near‑term headwind, strategy intact
MGA strategy and data investmentsAdded new partnerships; fee income growth in A&H MGAs 5 new/expanded partnerships; >80% opportunities rejected; investing in data capabilities Expanding selectively
Tariffs/macro monitoringLimited prior commentaryActive monitoring; ready to adjust pricing/appetite; inflation top focus Heightened vigilance
A&H pricing and product performanceConsistent profits; rate hardening in parts; growth despite mix changes Double‑digit growth; U.S. medical rates hardening; life pricing normalizing; stable margins Positive momentum
Capital and ratingsBSCR 265% (Q3); transformation actions completed; outlooks hinted BSCR 227%; AM Best & Fitch outlooks revised to Positive Supportive
Taxes/regulatoryFY24 tax benefits one‑offs Bermuda corporate tax effective; higher ETR by 8.5 pts Structural headwind

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Our aim to deliver stable and consistent earnings can be seen with our first quarter return on equity of 12.9%… as our diverse portfolio performed well against the backdrop of elevated natural catastrophe losses.”
  • CEO: “Our earnings per share of $0.49 was flat to prior year despite lower net income, demonstrating the significant accretion benefits now being derived from the previously announced share repurchases.”
  • CFO: “Excluding catastrophe losses, underwriting income increased by approximately 100%… reflecting higher levels of earned premium and an attritional combined ratio that improved 3 points to 90%.”
  • CFO: “We generated 8 points of BSCR capital in the first quarter… and returned $7m of capital via buybacks and $4m in preference dividends.”

Q&A Highlights

  • The published transcript reflects prepared remarks and operator close with no recorded analyst Q&A; key topics addressed in remarks included wildfire impact, pricing and segment mix, retrocession and capital/rating updates, and FY25 guidance .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus vs actual (Q1 2025):

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
Primary EPS ($)0.26*0.49+0.23*
Revenue ($USD Millions)688.0*727.3+39.3*

Values retrieved from S&P Global. Actuals cross‑checked with company release . EPS and revenue were material beats; only one estimate in each case (limited breadth)*.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core beat vs consensus on both EPS and revenue, driven by underwriting resilience and share count accretion; expect estimate revisions upward near term [GetEstimates]*.
  • Insurance & Services momentum (GPW +21%, combined ratio 94%) offsets Reinsurance cat volatility; portfolio mix is shifting toward lower‑volatility lines .
  • Favorable reserve development continues (16 consecutive quarters), supporting confidence in reserve adequacy and earnings quality despite cat activity .
  • Capital and ratings stance strengthened (AM Best/Fitch Positive outlooks, BSCR 227%); supports capacity and may narrow the valuation discount to peers .
  • FY25 guidance (NII $265–$275m, expense ratio 6.5–7%, double‑digit NPW growth) implies durability of earnings; monitor reinvestment yields and asset base post buybacks .
  • Watch cat seasonality and retrocession costs; management is actively moderating property exposure and remains “rate adequate” only where margins clear targets .
  • Near‑term trading: positive beat and ratings upgrades are catalysts; medium‑term thesis hinges on sustained mix shift to A&H/specialty, continued reserve releases at prudent levels, and delivery within the 12–15% ROE band .

Footnote: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.