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SiriusPoint Ltd (SPNT)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 delivered another solid quarter: total revenues $755.9M, diluted EPS $0.73, consolidated combined ratio 85.9%, and Core combined ratio 89.1%, with no catastrophe losses in the quarter .
  • EPS significantly beat S&P Global consensus by $0.22 ($0.73 actual vs $0.51 consensus), while revenue consensus for Q3 was not available; Q2/Q1 revenues both beat consensus by ~$28M and ~$39M respectively (Values retrieved from S&P Global)* .
  • Management highlighted continued premium growth (Core GPW +26% YoY), underwriting income +11% YoY, and strong capital with BSCR estimate 226%; S&P upgraded the outlook to Positive in October, marking the third 2025 outlook upgrade .
  • Strategic catalysts: announced sales of Armada and Arcadian MGAs with combined proceeds of ~$389M, unlocking ~+$1.75/share to BV upon close; plan to use proceeds to reduce leverage by redeeming Series B preference shares at reset (expected Feb-2026) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “Strong underwriting performance, targeted growth … and a positive outlook upgrade by S&P means there is a lot to be proud of,” with operating ROE 17.9% in Q3 and 16.1% YTD, above the 12–15% target .
    • Core GPW +26% YoY; underwriting income up 11% YoY; consolidated underwriting income $91.4M vs $89.0M last year; no catastrophe losses in Q3 .
    • Net services fee income +47% YoY to $10.1M; service margin rose to 17.1% on improved IMG travel and Armada profitability .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Favorable prior-year development (PYD) was lower YoY in Q3: $9.1M vs $29.7M last year, reducing the YoY loss ratio tailwind .
    • Investment result declined YoY on a smaller asset base after 2024–Q1’25 capital actions; Q3 total investment result $72.7M vs $92.5M last year .
    • Reinsurance segment underwriting income fell YoY ($31.9M vs $41.6M) on reduced PYD; aviation remains pressured and property reinsurance rate adequacy closely monitored .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$727.3 $748.2 $755.9
Diluted EPS ($)$0.49 $0.50 $0.73
Operating/Underlying Diluted EPS ($)$0.66 $0.66 $0.72
Consolidated Combined Ratio (%)91.4% 86.1% 85.9%
Core Combined Ratio (%)95.4% 89.5% 89.1%

Segment breakdown and underwriting KPIs

Segment (Quarter)Net Premiums Earned ($M)Underwriting Income ($M)Combined Ratio (%)
Insurance & Services – Q1’25336.2 20.1 94.0%
Reinsurance – Q1’25289.6 8.4 97.1%
Insurance & Services – Q2’25369.2 39.5 89.3%
Reinsurance – Q2’25276.4 28.1 89.8%
Insurance & Services – Q3’25381.2 37.7 90.1%
Reinsurance – Q3’25262.3 31.9 87.9%

Additional KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Book Value per Diluted Share ex-AOCI ($)$15.15 $15.64 $16.47
Annualized ROE (%)12.9% 12.7% 17.7%
Annualized Operating ROE (%)—17.0% (underlying) 17.9%
Net Services Fee Income ($M)$19.0 $8.7 $10.1
Service Margin (%)30.6% 14.7% 17.1%
BSCR Ratio (estimate) (%)227% 223% 226%

Consensus and actuals (S&P Global)*

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
EPS Consensus Mean ($)0.26*0.5733*0.51*
EPS Actual ($)0.49 0.66 (underlying) 0.73
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)688.0*720.1*N/A*
Revenue Actual ($USD Millions)727.3 748.2 755.9
EPS Beat/(Miss) ($)+0.23+0.09+0.22
Revenue Beat/(Miss) ($M)+39.3+28.1—

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Investment Income (NII) ($M)FY 2025$265–$275 $265–$275; “on track to hit upper end” Maintained
Other Underwriting Expense Ratio (%)FY 20256.5–7.0 (stated expectation) 6.5–7.0 (comfortable with prior) Maintained
Capital Allocation: Series B Preference RedemptionPost MGA closings—Proceeds intended to redeem $200M Series B prefs at reset (Feb-2026) New action plan
Dividend on Series B Preference SharesQ4 2025—$0.50 per share payable Nov 28, 2025 Announced

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Accident & Health (A&H) growth/volatility bufferA&H premium +24% YTD; stable, high ROE; short-tail, low volatility A&H highlighted as ~$1B annualized GPW; key shock absorber; supports disciplined risk elsewhere Strengthening
MGA strategy & seasoning/reservingCareful with new partners; profit-sharing; decline ~80% of opportunities ~90% MGA premium from partners >3 years; newer relationships reserved above pricing projections; long-term capacity with Armada/Arcadian Maturing, disciplined
Catastrophe exposure & eventsQ1 California wildfires drove 3.5 pts COR YTD; focused portfolio actions No cats in Q3; Hurricane Melissa net exposure ~$10M expected manageable Reduced volatility
Aviation & specialty reinsuranceCautious on aviation; rate adequacy a focus; marine mixed rates; property shifts Aviation premium reduced; awaiting Q4 airline renewals; property XoL softening offset by QS demand Selective/cautious
Capital & ratingsAM Best and Fitch outlooks Positive (H1); BSCR 223–227% S&P outlook Positive; BSCR 226%; plan to redeem prefs to reduce leverage Improving profile
Investment portfolio/returnsNII guidance intact; duration matched 2.8 years; AA- avg credit On track upper end NII guidance; reinvest >$900M at >4.5% yields; no defaults Solid execution

Management Commentary

  • CEO (prepared): “We achieved a strong operating return on equity of 17.9% … our year to date operating return on equity of 16.1% is still outperforming our range … Our third quarter Core combined ratio of 89.1% delivered an 11% increase in underwriting income … We expect the previously announced sale of two of our MGA investments … to unlock significant value for shareholders representing an increase of around $1.75 per share” .
  • CFO (prepared): “Net service fee income increasing 47% to $10 million … Operating net income is $85 million … For the full year, we remain comfortable with our previously stated expense ratio expectation of 6.5% to 7%” .
  • Strategy: Long-term capacity agreements with Armada (to 2030) and Arcadian (to 2031); proceeds expected to redeem $200M preference shares at reset to reduce leverage and financing costs .

Q&A Highlights

  • Attritional loss ratio trajectory: Management sees continued optimization rather than “material” moves, with mix shift and ROE discipline driving outcomes; transparency promised if mix changes meaningfully .
  • Premium growth seasonality: Q4 growth expected closer to YTD trends; Q3 insurance growth strong with pipeline and relationships driving volumes .
  • Reinsurance/aviation: Cautious stance continues; capital allocation contingent on rate adequacy, with many major airline renewals in Q4 .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 EPS beat consensus by $0.22 (actual $0.73 vs $0.51 consensus); revenue consensus for Q3 was not available; prior quarters showed revenue beats of ~$28M (Q2) and ~$39M (Q1) (Values retrieved from S&P Global)* .
  • With continued underwriting discipline, no catastrophe losses in Q3, and strengthening services margins, analyst EPS estimates may need upward revision to reflect higher operating earnings quality and reduced volatility profile .

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Quality of earnings improving: attritional combined ratio down 1.8 pts YTD; services margin rising; 12 consecutive quarters of underwriting profits .
  • Capital/catalysts: S&P outlook Positive and expected BVPS uplift (~+$1.75/share) upon MGA sales closing provide tangible valuation support; preference redemption plan should lower leverage/costs .
  • Portfolio resilience: No cat losses in Q3 and diversified exposure (A&H, Surety) lower volatility; property reinsurance managed via XL protection and selective UK SME/residential focus .
  • Segment momentum: Insurance & Services delivering stronger growth with improved loss ratio; Reinsurance disciplined amid aviation/property market dynamics .
  • Near-term trading: EPS beat and positive rating outlook are supportive; watch Q4 airline renewals (aviation rates) and timing of MGA closings as catalysts .
  • Medium-term thesis: Continued underwriting discipline, services fee growth, and capital optimization (prefs redemption) underpin ROE at or above 12–15% target across the cycle .