SiriusPoint Ltd (SPNT)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q4 2024 core operations delivered the ninth consecutive underwriting profit with a core combined ratio of 90.2% and underlying net income of $43.5M, but headline net loss of $(21.3)M ($(0.13) diluted EPS) due to one-time items (CMIG warrant MTM/settlement, Enstar LPT loss, and an MGA write-down) .
• Continuing-lines growth remained strong: Q4 gross premiums written (GPW) +21% YoY; net premiums written +28% as SPNT retained more lower-volatility business; Milton drove $38.6M of cat losses (6.6 pts) but underlying underwriting improved materially YoY .
• Strategic capital actions: repurchase of 45.7M CMIG shares and cancellation of warrants to be fully retired; expected >20% EPS accretion and >200 bps ROE uplift; BVPS ex-AOCI rose 2.7% QoQ; BSCR ~214% post-transaction (robust solvency) .
• 2025 setup: net investment income (NII) guidance $265–$275M; effective tax rate expected to step up to ~19% with Bermuda corporate tax; initial CA wildfires net pre-tax loss estimate $60–$70M, within retrocession protection .
• Stock narrative catalysts: immediate share-count reduction and P/E compression post-retirement, sustained underwriting improvement, and potential moderation of property-cat softening after CA wildfires; management highlighted post-deal P/E “well below peers” .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Underwriting quality improved materially: Q4 core combined ratio 90.2% (–330 bps YoY), driven by lower attritional losses and favorable PYD; FY core combined ratio improved to 91.0% despite higher catastrophe ratio YoY .
  • Capital optimization and simplification: CMIG share/warrant buyback immediately accretive; BVPS ex-AOCI +2.7% QoQ; BSCR ~214%; management emphasized reshaping is “complete,” refocusing fully on performance and growth .
  • Investment income strength: Q4 NII $68.9M; FY NII $303.6M (slightly above $295–$300M guidance); high-quality fixed income (99% IG, avg AA–), no Q4 defaults .

• What Went Wrong

  • Headline earnings were noisy: Q4 net loss $(21.3)M from (i) CMIG warrant settlement expense ~$26M, (ii) $20M pretax LPT loss, and (iii) ~$34–$55M MGA fair value decrease/write-down; management framed these as final reshaping items .
  • Elevated catastrophe losses: Q4 cat losses $38.6M (6.6 pts) mainly from Hurricane Milton; consolidated combined ratio increased to 94.4% vs 84.4% in Q3 (seasonality + cat) .
  • Higher 2025 tax burden and ongoing runoff drag: ETR expected to rise to ~19% in 2025; runoff impacted headline numbers but is expected to be insignificant in 2025 .

Financial Results

Headline metrics by quarter (oldest → newest)

Note: S&P Global consensus data was attempted but not available due to access limits; no estimate comparisons are presented for this quarter.

Segment performance (YoY)

Key underwriting KPIs (YoY)

FY context (for reference): FY 2024 core combined ratio 91.0%, FY NII $303.6M, consolidated ROE 9.1% (14.6% underlying) .

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “2024 marks the end of our major reshaping and that going forward, the entire focus of the company is improving our business performance further.” — CEO Scott Egan .
• “We delivered the combined ratio for our core business of 90.2%, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of underwriting profit.” — CEO Scott Egan .
• “The headline net loss of $21 million was the result of three items linked to our efforts to finalize the reshaping of the company… CMIG transaction… LPT… and the write-down of a legacy MGA investment.” — CFO James McKinney .
• “Upon close… we will permanently retire all 45.7 million of the common shares previously held by CMIG… EPS [to] meaningfully increase by >20% and ROE by >200 bps.” — CEO Scott Egan .
• “Net investment income for full year 2024 was $304 million… portfolio remains high-quality, low-volatility fixed income… 99% investment grade, avg rating AA–.” — CFO James McKinney .

Q&A Highlights

• The publicly available transcript included prepared remarks but did not include a Q&A section; key clarifications were provided in management commentary on: (i) the drivers of headline net loss (CMIG instruments, LPT, MGA revaluation), (ii) the CA wildfires loss estimate and retro protection, and (iii) the step-up in 2025 effective tax rate .

Estimates Context

• We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue; the data was unavailable due to access limits. As a result, comparisons versus Wall Street consensus are not presented this quarter.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Underwriting engine is compounding: core combined ratio at 90.2% despite a 6.6-pt cat headwind, with attritional loss ratio improvement and sustained favorable PYD; the ninth straight underwriting profit signals durable discipline .
• The CMIG transaction is a structural catalyst: retiring 45.7M shares and cancelling warrants drives >20% EPS accretion and +200 bps ROE uplift, while simplifying governance and removing P&L volatility from the warrants .
• Capital remains robust post-deal: BSCR ~214% and debt-to-capital ~24.8% provide flexibility to pursue targeted growth in Insurance & Services and Specialty Reinsurance .
• Investment income normalizes from a strong 2024: FY25 NII guided to $265–$275M given a smaller asset base after buybacks, but portfolio quality and reinvestment yields remain favorable (avg AA–; >4.5% reinvestment) .
• 2025 earnings bridge: headline ETR step-up to ~19% is a headwind, partly offset by lower share count, stable underwriting, and NII; management still targets 12–15% across-cycle ROE .
• Cat volatility mitigated: Q4 Milton losses and the CA wildfires estimate are within risk appetite and retro protections; portfolio repositioning since 2022 continues to dampen volatility versus peers .
• Near-term trading lens: Accretive share retirement and ongoing underwriting strength are likely positive drivers; watch for wildfire loss development, property-cat renewal dynamics, and tax-rate impact on reported EPS .