ST
Spero Therapeutics, Inc. (SPRO)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered total revenue of $5.87M and diluted EPS of ($0.25); YoY revenue declined vs Q1 2024 ($9.27M) as grant revenue fell, partially offset by higher collaboration revenue with GSK .
- EPS significantly beat sparse Wall Street consensus, with actual ($0.25) vs consensus ($0.55) loss; revenue printed versus a $0.0M consensus base, reflecting low coverage and model alignment gaps. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Cash and cash equivalents were $48.9M at 3/31; management expects existing cash plus earned, non‑contingent GSK milestones of $23.75M to fund operations into Q2 2026 .
- Near-term catalyst: the PIVOT‑PO Phase 3 trial met its primary endpoint at interim and will stop early for efficacy, with GSK planning an FDA filing in 2H 2025—materially improving probability of regulatory success and future milestones .
- The company did not host a Q1 conference call, limiting qualitative color; the CEO transition to Esther Rajavelu was finalized May 2 and reiterated focus on tebipenem HBr execution .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- PIVOT‑PO Phase 3 interim met primary endpoint and stopped early for efficacy; GSK plans to include data in a 2H 2025 FDA filing. “Achieving the primary endpoint…marks a significant milestone for tebipenem HBr” — CEO Esther Rajavelu .
- Collaboration revenue with GSK increased YoY within Q1, partially offsetting grant declines; total revenue of $5.87M reflects ongoing partner funding .
- Liquidity preserved: $48.9M cash plus $23.75M earned milestones provide runway into Q2 2026, supporting execution without near‑term equity dilution .
What Went Wrong
- Grant revenue materially declined YoY, driving total revenue down to $5.87M from $9.27M; net loss widened modestly to ($13.9)M from ($12.7)M YoY .
- General & administrative expense rose YoY to $6.8M on personnel and professional fees despite prior restructuring, pressuring operating leverage .
- No Q1 earnings call or transcript, constraining real-time guidance detail and Q&A clarity; investors relied on static disclosures until the late‑May clinical update .
Financial Results
Quarterly Trend (Sequential)
YoY Comparison (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)
Q1 2025 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Revenue Component Breakdown
Operating Expense KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our top priority remains the successful execution of the tebipenem HBr clinical program… We believe that, if approved, tebipenem HBr could deliver meaningful clinical and economic benefits” — Esther Rajavelu, President & CEO .
- “Achieving the primary endpoint in the PIVOT‑PO trial marks a significant milestone… We look forward to working with GSK on next steps” — Esther Rajavelu .
- “Existing cash, together with earned development milestones from GSK, provide runway… into Q2 2026” .
Q&A Highlights
- Interim analysis design and outcomes: management outlined three prespecified scenarios (early stop for efficacy, futility, or continue enrollment) and a 10% NI margin; alpha spend accounted for in sample size .
- SPR720 path forward: evaluate full dataset of 25 patients; oral path deemed unlikely due to reversible grade 3 hepatotoxicity at 1,000mg QD; potential reformulation considered .
- Note: The company did not host a Q1 2025 call; highlights above reference Q4 2024 Q&A .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 EPS printed ($0.25) vs consensus ($0.55) loss, a ~$0.30 beat; revenue of $5.87M vs $0.0M consensus reflects low coverage and modeling gaps. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Coverage depth was one estimate each for revenue and EPS, limiting statistical confidence and implying potential for model updates post clinical efficacy disclosure. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Clinical de‑risking: Early stop for efficacy at PIVOT‑PO and 2H 2025 planned FDA filing materially improve probability‑adjusted milestone realization and long‑term value; expect stock to be sensitive to regulatory timelines and FDA interactions .
- Liquidity: $48.9M cash plus $23.75M earned GSK milestones supports operations into Q2 2026; near‑term equity needs appear limited absent unforeseen events .
- Operating discipline: R&D fell YoY in Q1 with SPR720 spend down; G&A up on personnel and fees—watch operating expense trajectory into regulatory submission .
- Revenue composition: Collaboration revenue with GSK was the primary driver in Q1; grant revenue variability remains a swing factor in quarterly totals .
- Communication cadence: No Q1 call reduced near‑term qualitative color, but late‑May clinical update is a dominant narrative driver—expect estimate revisions and thesis re‑ratings .
- Pipeline focus: SPR206 discontinued; SPR720’s future hinges on full dataset review—capital and management attention are concentrated on tebipenem HBr .
- Trading implications: Near‑term moves likely tied to regulatory filing progress, any FDA feedback, and milestones; monitor GSK disclosure cadence and additional non‑dilutive funding opportunities .