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Spero Therapeutics, Inc. (SPRO)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered total revenue of $5.87M and diluted EPS of ($0.25); YoY revenue declined vs Q1 2024 ($9.27M) as grant revenue fell, partially offset by higher collaboration revenue with GSK .
  • EPS significantly beat sparse Wall Street consensus, with actual ($0.25) vs consensus ($0.55) loss; revenue printed versus a $0.0M consensus base, reflecting low coverage and model alignment gaps. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Cash and cash equivalents were $48.9M at 3/31; management expects existing cash plus earned, non‑contingent GSK milestones of $23.75M to fund operations into Q2 2026 .
  • Near-term catalyst: the PIVOT‑PO Phase 3 trial met its primary endpoint at interim and will stop early for efficacy, with GSK planning an FDA filing in 2H 2025—materially improving probability of regulatory success and future milestones .
  • The company did not host a Q1 conference call, limiting qualitative color; the CEO transition to Esther Rajavelu was finalized May 2 and reiterated focus on tebipenem HBr execution .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • PIVOT‑PO Phase 3 interim met primary endpoint and stopped early for efficacy; GSK plans to include data in a 2H 2025 FDA filing. “Achieving the primary endpoint…marks a significant milestone for tebipenem HBr” — CEO Esther Rajavelu .
  • Collaboration revenue with GSK increased YoY within Q1, partially offsetting grant declines; total revenue of $5.87M reflects ongoing partner funding .
  • Liquidity preserved: $48.9M cash plus $23.75M earned milestones provide runway into Q2 2026, supporting execution without near‑term equity dilution .

What Went Wrong

  • Grant revenue materially declined YoY, driving total revenue down to $5.87M from $9.27M; net loss widened modestly to ($13.9)M from ($12.7)M YoY .
  • General & administrative expense rose YoY to $6.8M on personnel and professional fees despite prior restructuring, pressuring operating leverage .
  • No Q1 earnings call or transcript, constraining real-time guidance detail and Q&A clarity; investors relied on static disclosures until the late‑May clinical update .

Financial Results

Quarterly Trend (Sequential)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$13.47 $15.04 $5.87
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)($17.15) ($20.89) ($13.87)
Diluted EPS ($USD)($0.06) ($0.38) ($0.25)
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$76.29 $52.89 $48.89

YoY Comparison (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$9.27 $5.87
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)($12.67) ($13.87)
Diluted EPS ($USD)($0.24) ($0.25)
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$17.33 $13.61
G&A Expense ($USD Millions)$5.92 $6.82

Q1 2025 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.00*$5.87
Diluted EPS ($USD)($0.55)*($0.25)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Revenue Component Breakdown

Revenue Component ($USD Millions)Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Grant Revenue$5.65 $5.69 $0.76
Collaboration Revenue – Related Party (GSK)$7.75 $9.30 $5.10
Total Revenue$13.47 $15.04 $5.87

Operating Expense KPIs

Operating KPIs ($USD Millions)Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
R&D Expense$26.86 $28.84 $13.61
G&A Expense$5.20 $7.06 $6.82
Total Operating Expenses$32.06 $36.77 $20.61

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash RunwayThroughMid‑2026 (post RIF) Into Q2 2026 (cash + earned GSK milestones) Maintained (timing refined)
PIVOT‑PO Interim Analysis TimingQ2 2025Expected Q2 2025 Completed; met primary endpoint; trial stopped early for efficacy Raised (positive outcome)
GSK Milestones (Earned, Non‑Contingent)2025$47.5M remaining at FY24 (cumulative) $23.75M upcoming referenced for runway Maintained (timing clarification)
SPR206 Program2025IND cleared; initiate contingent on funding Discontinued following pipeline reprioritization Lowered
SPR720 Program Status2024–2025Oral program suspended post interim; complete full data analysis Continuing analysis of all 25 patients; next steps TBD Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Tebipenem HBr – PIVOT‑POEnrollment progressing; interim expected Q2 2025 Interim completed; primary endpoint met; early stop for efficacy; 2H 2025 filing plan Positive inflection; de‑risking regulatory path
Cash RunwayMid‑2026 post restructuring Into Q2 2026 with earned GSK milestones Stable runway; visibility maintained
SPR720 (NTM‑PD)Oral program suspended; safety signal; full dataset to guide next steps Completing data analysis of all 25 patients; next steps TBD Uncertain; awaiting analysis
SPR206 (HABP/VABP)IND cleared; contingent on non‑dilutive funding Discontinued after pipeline reprioritization Program removed; resource focus on tebipenem
LeadershipCEO transition under interim status Esther Rajavelu appointed CEO May 2 Stability improved; strategic continuity
CommunicationsQ4 hosted call/Q&A No Q1 call; results via press release Less live color in Q1; clinical update superseded

Management Commentary

  • “Our top priority remains the successful execution of the tebipenem HBr clinical program… We believe that, if approved, tebipenem HBr could deliver meaningful clinical and economic benefits” — Esther Rajavelu, President & CEO .
  • “Achieving the primary endpoint in the PIVOT‑PO trial marks a significant milestone… We look forward to working with GSK on next steps” — Esther Rajavelu .
  • “Existing cash, together with earned development milestones from GSK, provide runway… into Q2 2026” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Interim analysis design and outcomes: management outlined three prespecified scenarios (early stop for efficacy, futility, or continue enrollment) and a 10% NI margin; alpha spend accounted for in sample size .
  • SPR720 path forward: evaluate full dataset of 25 patients; oral path deemed unlikely due to reversible grade 3 hepatotoxicity at 1,000mg QD; potential reformulation considered .
  • Note: The company did not host a Q1 2025 call; highlights above reference Q4 2024 Q&A .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 EPS printed ($0.25) vs consensus ($0.55) loss, a ~$0.30 beat; revenue of $5.87M vs $0.0M consensus reflects low coverage and modeling gaps. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Coverage depth was one estimate each for revenue and EPS, limiting statistical confidence and implying potential for model updates post clinical efficacy disclosure. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Clinical de‑risking: Early stop for efficacy at PIVOT‑PO and 2H 2025 planned FDA filing materially improve probability‑adjusted milestone realization and long‑term value; expect stock to be sensitive to regulatory timelines and FDA interactions .
  • Liquidity: $48.9M cash plus $23.75M earned GSK milestones supports operations into Q2 2026; near‑term equity needs appear limited absent unforeseen events .
  • Operating discipline: R&D fell YoY in Q1 with SPR720 spend down; G&A up on personnel and fees—watch operating expense trajectory into regulatory submission .
  • Revenue composition: Collaboration revenue with GSK was the primary driver in Q1; grant revenue variability remains a swing factor in quarterly totals .
  • Communication cadence: No Q1 call reduced near‑term qualitative color, but late‑May clinical update is a dominant narrative driver—expect estimate revisions and thesis re‑ratings .
  • Pipeline focus: SPR206 discontinued; SPR720’s future hinges on full dataset review—capital and management attention are concentrated on tebipenem HBr .
  • Trading implications: Near‑term moves likely tied to regulatory filing progress, any FDA feedback, and milestones; monitor GSK disclosure cadence and additional non‑dilutive funding opportunities .