Spire - Q2 2024

Transcript

Scott Doyle (EVP and COO)

Good day, and welcome to the Spire Fiscal 2024 Q2 Earnings Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Megan McPhail, Managing Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Megan McPhail (Managing Director of Investor Relations)

Good morning, and welcome to Spire's fiscal 2024 Q2 earnings call. We issued an earnings news release this morning, and you may access it on our website at spireenergy.com under Newsroom. There's a slide presentation that accompanies our webcast. You may download it either from the webcast site or from our website under Investors and then Events and Presentation. Before we begin, let me cover our safe harbor statement and use of non-GAAP earnings measures. Today's call, including responses to questions, may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although our forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there are various uncertainties and risk factors that may cause future performance or results to be different than those anticipated.

These risks and uncertainties are outlined in our quarterly and annual filings with the SEC. In our comments, we will be discussing Net Economic Earnings and Contribution Margin, which are both non-GAAP measures used by management when evaluating our performance and results of operations. Explanations and reconciliations of these measures to their GAAP counterparts are contained in both our news release and slide presentation. On the call today is Steve Lindsey, President and CEO, Scott Doyle, Executive Vice President and COO, and Steve Rasche, Executive Vice President and CFO. Also in the room today is Adam Woodard, Vice President and Treasurer. With that, I will turn the call over to Steve Lindsey. Steve?

Steve Lindsey (President and CEO)

Thanks, Megan, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for a review of our Q2 performance and an update on recent developments and outlook. Let's start with our quarterly results. This morning, we reported fiscal Q2 net economic earnings of $3.45 per share, compared to NEE of $3.70 per share a year ago. The year-over-year decrease was driven by a few key items, including lower usage in Missouri due to significantly warmer than normal weather and higher interest expense. Scott and Steve will discuss our results in more detail in a moment. Our results reflect our dedication and commitment to serve our customers and communities safe and reliable energy, and we continue to execute on our strategy to grow our businesses, invest in infrastructure, and drive continuous improvement to deliver value over the long term.

Having a diverse portfolio of natural gas businesses enhances our ability to provide value. Further, consistent with our board of directors' focus on strong oversight and governance, last month, we announced the election of Sheri Cook as the newest addition to our board. Her extensive business experience and leadership in human resources, along with her background in economics and finance, will be vital as we execute our strategy. Her presence and involvement throughout our Alabama service territory further ensures we remain connected to our communities we serve, and I look forward to working closely with her in the future.

Before I wrap up, I would like to highlight the important role that natural gas plays and will continue to play as part of America's sustainable energy future. Approximately 200 million Americans in businesses use natural gas because it's affordable, reliable, and safe. In fact, according to the American Gas Association, households that use natural gas for heating, cooking, and clothes drying save over $1,100 on average per year compared to homes using electricity. Together, natural gas utilities across the country, including Spire, continue to invest $ billions of capital each year to enhance the natural gas distribution and transmission systems.

As an industry, we can be proud of the important work we've done in modernizing infrastructure and deploying technology that has led to increased safety, efficiency, and reliability for natural gas customers. To sum up, we are well positioned for success in the second half of fiscal year 2024 and over the long term as we execute on our robust capital investment plan to support the growth and performance of our utilities and our gas-related businesses. Spire is a strong and well-positioned company with a proven growth strategy. We have confidence in that strategy and in the ability of our experienced management team and employees to successfully lead us into the future. With that, I'll now turn the call over to you, Scott.

Scott Doyle (EVP and COO)

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to begin by thanking our employees for their hard work and continued focus, maintaining safe and reliable natural gas service to our customers through the winter heating season. I am extremely grateful and proud to be a part of the Spire team. Turning now to an update on the gas utility segment. Our commitment to strong operations and continued modernization of our system was visible when we were well-positioned to deliver safe, reliable, and affordable natural gas energy for our customers and communities who depend on this resource as a critical energy need. We remain focused on driving efficiencies throughout the organization, including streamlining systems and processes and maintaining an unwavering commitment to operational excellence.

On the regulatory front, in Missouri, we were pleased with the constructive outcome in our recent filing for an updated ISRS, our semiannual capital recovery infrastructure rider. Last week, the Missouri Public Service Commission approved $16.8 million in new revenues for recovery of system upgrade investments made September 2023 through February 2024, bringing our annualized ISRS revenue to $36.9 million. Rates are expected to be effective later this month. In Alabama, the rates that were effective January 1st were the result of working alongside the Alabama Public Service Commission staff during our annual rate-setting process.

As you may recall, our rates in Alabama are set using a forecasted budget. Our Q2 results reflect the benefits of these constructive regulatory mechanisms we have in each state, as earnings benefited from new rates in Alabama and previously approved Missouri ISRS revenues. During the quarter, we experienced warm temperatures across all of our service territories. In Alabama, temperatures were approximately 10% warmer than normal. I'm glad to say, as a result of our efforts with the Alabama PSC to incorporate more accurate customer usage patterns into rates, the weather normalization mechanism in Alabama continues to be effective.

However, in our Missouri service territory, severe fluctuations in temperatures throughout the quarter resulted in the Weather Normalization Adjustment Rider, or WNAR, being less effective than last year, and the lost weather-related margins in our residential customer class during the quarter were only partially mitigated. Overall, weather for the quarter was 15% warmer than normal. However, combined, the months of February and March were nearly 32% warmer than normal. During these months, we saw periods of extremely warm days, followed by periods of more normal temperatures. These significant fluctuations in weather can cause usage to be lower than what the degree days would imply.

We look forward to working with the Missouri PSC staff to evaluate how to better recover lost weather-related margin in the future. As a reminder, the WNAR does not apply to the less weather-sensitive commercial, industrial, and transportation customer classes. Slides 15 and 16 in our appendix include further information on weather and customer usage for the quarter and year to date. During the quarter, interest costs increased, and O&M costs were also slightly higher than last year's Q2, increasing $2.3 million or approximately 2%. However, year to date, our O&M expenses remain below last year. Let me assure you, we are laser-focused on navigating these headwinds. On the cost side, we continue to control our O&M expenses. We believe that going forward, controlling O&M increases will enable our utility financial performance to further improve fiscal 2024.

We are working to improve efficiencies and reduce costs across the organization. We are targeting elements of our cost structure that can be reduced based on enhancements in technology that have occurred or will occur in the coming years. In addition, we are working to ensure our shared services are efficiently aligned and supportive of our capital investment programs. Moving to slide 5 and an update on our capital investment plan. We continue to invest significant amounts of capital focused on modernizing our gas utilities. Fiscal year to date, our CapEx totaled $409 million, which was primarily in our gas utilities. year-over-year, our gas utility CapEx increased 7% to $311 million, with an emphasis on upgrading distribution infrastructure and connecting more homes and businesses.

We continue to install advanced meters for residential customers across our service territory. In fiscal year to date, we have installed over 120,000 advanced meters, bringing the total number of customers benefiting from this technology to 660,000. Investment in our midstream segment totaled $98 million fiscal year to date, largely for the expansion of Spire Storage West. Looking ahead, the expected fiscal year 2024 capital investment at the gas utility segment remains unchanged. However, we are increasing our total fiscal year 2024 capital investment target by $35 million-$800 million in support of our storage expansion project. I will now hand the call over to Steve Rasche to discuss this project in more detail and provide a financial update.

Steve Rasche (EVP and CFO)

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Let's start with our Midstream segment. As you know, we closed the acquisition of MoGas and Omega in January of this year, and we are pleased with both our progress and integration, as well as the solid performance of the system this winter. We've also updated our expansion plan at Spire Storage West, supporting our targeted completion in fiscal year 2025. Here are a few key points. During the quarter, we completed our open season and recontracting activities for the capacity that is coming online in fiscal years 2024 and 2025. Consistent with the higher demand we've been seeing in the Western U.S., we were able to lock in rates well above our initial estimates, and for contract terms consistent with the current market of 3-5 years.

We also increased our total targeted investment by $55 million-$250 million, with $35 million of that investment falling in fiscal year 2024. This increase is driven by expanded scope of the project, including enhancing the power supply and line heating and maintenance capabilities, higher drilling costs for the injection and withdrawal wells, and increased construction costs, especially for electrical equipment and labor, reflecting the high demand across the energy sector and the market overall. Combining these factors, the returns on the project have improved from our original target. To put this in perspective, the total impact of the Spire Storage West expansion and a full year of MoGas is expected to increase our midstream earnings by $10 million-$12 million in fiscal year 2025. Now, turning to our results.

Earlier today, we reported fiscal Q2 Net Economic Earnings of $197 million, down $2.6 million from last year. Looking at the segments, our gas utility had earnings of $188 million, an increase of $4 million from last year. As Scott just touched on, higher rates and effective weather mitigation in Alabama were offset in large part by lower usage and only, and only partial mitigation in Missouri. Both gas marketing and midstream had very tough comps from the prior year, and as we guided earlier, we did not expect those highly favorable market conditions to recur this year. We did benefit from the cold snap in January, and both segments were well-positioned to capture value. For marketing, that value is reflected in the Q2 results.

Midstream also captured value, and we anticipate seeing that showing up in the back half of this year. And lastly, lower corporate costs were offset by higher interest expense. On a per-share basis, we reported Net Economic Earnings of $3.45 per share, compared to $3.70 last year, with most of the decline attributed to the impact of higher share count this year as a result of our forward sale that settled in December and the equity unit conversion in March. Slide 8 provides detail on key variances. Hitting a couple of the highlights, as I just mentioned, gas utility margins were higher overall, and the volumetric component, net of weather mitigation, was $10.3 million higher in Alabama and $8.6 million lower in Missouri.

Gas marketing margins, net of fair value adjustments, were lower, as I just touched on, and midstream was higher as a result of the addition of MoGas and Salt Plains. Looking at operations and maintenance expenses, gas utility expenses increased by $2.3 million as lower operational costs and third-party spend were offset by higher employee-related costs. I would also echo the point that for the first half of our fiscal year, our utility O&M costs are actually down $900,000 compared to last year. Marketing and midstream costs moved up, consistent with the underlying business drivers. Interest expense was higher by $5 million, driven mostly by higher long-term and short-term interest rates this quarter. Turning to our outlook.

We remain confident in our long-term net economic earnings per share growth target of 5%-7%, starting from the midpoint of our fiscal year 2024 guidance range. Our growth is driven by our utility rate base investments, a key component of our 10-year CapEx target of $7.3 billion. Despite the headwinds faced in the first half of the year, we are reaffirming our fiscal year 2024 net economic earnings range of $4.25-$4.45 per share. We are updating our business segment targets to reflect our first half results and expectations for the rest of the year. We are lowering our gas utility range by $10 million as we expect to offset some of the headwinds we discussed earlier by cost management.

We've raised the range for gas marketing by $5 million on stronger-than-expected earnings in the first half of the year. We've also increased the range for midstream by $4 million to reflect the pull-through of new storage rates and the value created during the winter. The corporate costs move up by $2 million to reflect higher interest expense. Moving to slide 10, our three-year financing plan is unchanged from last quarter, and this year's financing needs are now largely complete. On the equity side, we completed both the forward sales settlement and the equity units conversion, and our ATM program placed $12 million in forward settlements this quarter. This leaves very modest equity needs through 2026.

With the $350 million note placement by Spire Inc., our long-term debt needs are also largely satisfied, and the remaining long-term debt financing in our plan is largely tied to future refinancing activity. I would also note that we funded a short-term $200 million loan in January, and this loan will be fully repaid in early May. We continue to target FFO debt at 15%-16% on a consolidated basis. In summary, we are well positioned to continue growing and delivering strong overall performance for our customers, communities, and investors. Thank you for your continued interest in Spire, and we look forward to seeing many of you at the AGA Financial Forum later this month. Operator, we're now ready to take questions.

Operator (participant)

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press Star and then one on your touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press Star and then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. The first question comes from Richard Sunderland with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Richard Sunderland (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, good morning. Can you hear me?

Steve Rasche (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, we can. Morning, Rich.

Richard Sunderland (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you for the time today. Couple ones on the weather to start. I guess, looking across the business and given these weather headwinds, where are you trending in the guidance range, off the segment revisions? I think on my dumb math, it's maybe a 1% decline, old to new. So is it fair that that's putting you in the bottom half of the range? And then I'm also curious kind of where FFO to debt stands, currently, given this weather headwind as well.

Steve Rasche (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, Rich, let me, let me start on that. Yeah, you know, we, we have a range, and I, I can't argue with the logic that that you put forward. If you look at the individual businesses, it would show a little bit of degradation in total, and it's weather in the utility and a little bit of interest rates at at the, the corporate end.

What I would say is that, you know, as you think about this half year and then play it forward as we think about next year, you know, the beauty of the weather headwinds, if there's any bright sides to that cloud that we've dealt with, is that we would expect to get back to normalize weather and mitigation next year, which is essentially what we had in Missouri last year. And that if you look at the material, and we did in the appendix to the presentation, provide a lot more granular information on the weather, it would point to a rebound of, you know, $0.18 range.

So if you think about how to model the rest of this year, but then what does that look like as you rebase this year going forward? We're very confident that we're still on track. Adam?

Adam Woodard (VP and Treasurer)

Yeah, Rich, and, I think that good, good question on FFO to debt, connecting that to our weather pull-through. As you know, we're given our volume, the volumes that we count on for cash flow, that those lower volumes have negatively impacted that cash flow growth trajectory. So we do. While we still see very steady progress to that target range, you know, we do now expect that to happen after year-end 2024. On the bright side, we do see deferred gas costs almost completely recovered here at the end of the quarter and hope to be completely recovered here shortly.

Richard Sunderland (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Got it. Thank you. Very helpful color all around. And then, you know, I think you unpacked this in the script, but did wanna revisit in terms of how this weather impact is showing up. You were mentioning extreme fluctuations, and then there's a greater usage impact relative to what the degree days are. Is that effectively the difference between your Q2 results now and Q1? I'm just trying to think about where the degree days were light on both sides, but the weather impacting your results is actually really showing up this quarter. If you could help parse kind of Q2 versus Q1, that'd be helpful.

Scott Doyle (EVP and COO)

Hey, Richard, this is Scott Doyle. Yeah. Hey, maybe I can help with that a little bit. You know, maybe just start with the response and that tieback to the quarter last year. This quarter, we were 2% warmer than the quarter last year. And so if you just look at last year, we had good weather mitigation with the same mechanism in place. When you look at this quarter, really, February, March, were much warmer than normal, and it was variable weather, so much so that there was no real consistent weather pattern across those two months. What we saw as we've been analyzing the data is that the customer usage is off significantly during those months and are not correlated to what the HDDs would show for that same time period.

So, on balance, what that tells us is, is there's some work we need to do, relative to that mechanism to, get better correlation. That's work we have to do with the PSC staff. The timing of that will be in a rate case, is the forum which that takes place, but dialogue can certainly take place, in advance of that as well. So look for that, for us to dig more deeply into that and work closely with staff as we work to enhance and improve that mechanism.

Richard Sunderland (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Understood. Understood. And then just one last one, if I could. I know you reiterated the growth outlook here, but we've also had, I guess, a couple quarters now with some interest rate commentary and rate impacts and results. Just curious what you're assuming now on a forward basis for interest rates. You've given kind of the latest market backdrop and then your, you know, relative to your plan outlook here.

Scott Doyle (EVP and COO)

Yeah, no, I, Rich, great question. We have continued to take a higher for longer tack. It obviously, the interest rate forecasts are moving as well. I think a lot of the extra interest expense we're seeing is more balance-based rather than interest rate-based. So again, going back to the kind of volumetric pull-through, that's probably having more of a kind of a stubborn, stubbornly long impact there than our actual interest rate forecast.

Richard Sunderland (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Got it. Well, I'll leave it there. Thank you for the time today.

Steve Rasche (EVP and CFO)

Thanks, Rich.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim. Please go ahead.

James Ward (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, guys. It's James Ward on for Shar. How are you?

Steve Rasche (EVP and CFO)

Hey, James.

James Ward (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

... Hey. So, Richard had some good questions there that covered a couple of the ones I had, but I wanted to just delve a little bit more into on the weather. You mentioned, so rate case will be the proper avenue to go about making adjustments to the mechanism, and that there's a lack of correlation in Missouri between degree days and, you know, the amount of mitigation. Just sort of wondering, has the cause of that been identified? Is it something that needs to be studied? Just trying to get a sense of where we're at. Like, is there a solution in mind, and you're just waiting for the next rate case to be filed to kind of tack it on to that?

Or is it something that requires maybe a bit more modeling to figure out, you know, why they're not connecting the way that you would expect them to and the way they are working properly in other jurisdictions that you have? Just kind of how we should think about sort of the work to be done there in order to get them to match up. And then the follow-up would just be timing of, you know, when we might see, I guess, in this case, asking about a case, but really the question is when we might see a new mechanism take effect.

Scott Doyle (EVP and COO)

Hey, Jameson, Scott Doyle again. Thank you for your question. I think, you know, the simple answer to your question is: Is this something that does require a little more study, and more modeling, just to see if there's an opportunity to correlate this particular weather pattern? Just recall, this weather pattern was unique, and it's, that it, it was not a normal weather pattern, and it doesn't follow the norms, perhaps, within the mechanism. And so we just need to take a deeper dive looking at that alongside the PSC staff as we do that.

To answer your question about the timing of the rate case, you know, as a result of us using the ISRS mechanism, we have a must file date by May of 2026, but expect our rate case to be filed sooner than that, as we work to reduce regulatory lag associated with our significant capital investment program that we have underway right now.

James Ward (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Perfect. Very clear. Really appreciate the color. Thanks, guys.

Scott Doyle (EVP and COO)

Thanks, James.

Operator (participant)

If you have a question, please press star and then one. Our next question comes from Christopher Jeffrey with Mizuho Securities. Please go ahead.

Christopher Jeffrey (Equity Research Associate)

Hi, everyone. Thanks for the question. Maybe turning to the midstream and the storage in particular, looks like the guidance there was raised for the new storage rates, like Steve was talking about. Just curious how we should think about, is there any more room for expansion, any spare capacity there, and kind of how we should think about the fees expected after the capacity expansion in 2025? Are those rated at, are those kind of locked in at the current rates right now? Thanks.

Steve Rasche (EVP and CFO)

Hi again, Chris, this is Steve. Let me take a shot at that. You had a number of things there. If I miss something, just ping me. Yeah, you know, if you think about the midstream business overall, broadly, let's start broad. We're gonna step into the new scale that we currently operate and/or are striving to get to as we finish the expansion of Spire Storage West and the back half of this year in 2025 and 2026.

And the reason for that and the reason why you should expect to see that kind of step up over the next 2.5 years is that, you know, the physical dynamics of storage are that you bring the storage online, and then as the wells and the cavern season over time, the team not only gets comfortable with how the operations are, but then we get a better feel for how we can optimize the use of that cavern capacity over time. And this is pretty standard in the space. Takes a couple of years at least to kind of work our way through that. So if you think about the midstream segment broadly, you should expect to see that kind of step up over the next 2.5 years.

And we've given the guidance for this year for the midstream business, and we gave you a preview of how to think about the midstream business for 2025. Will we continue to look for opportunities to optimize? Absolutely. That's part of our job. But remember, the midstream business is a business where the rates that we charge really are driven by the volatility in the commodity, but the actual monetization of that volatility, in many ways, is left for our customers, but it does support higher rates. And as we mentioned, on the call in the prepared remarks, we have now completed the open season and the recontracting for the capacity that is online.

That actually just started injection in April, but will come online as we get into the next winter and in injection season next spring. We are extremely pleased that the rates that we got were well above what we had estimated. They're in the mid-twenties range, which is kind of where that segment of the market is right now. If you look at the market overall, the terms for contracts are between three and five years, and our contracting falls right in that category. In fact, I think the average is right in the middle at four years.

So, from that standpoint, while we will have some of our legacy contracts roll as we go through the next couple of years, we're in a very good position in terms of capturing the fixed storage value, getting it under contract and being able to operate it for a while. I think your last question was additional expansion opportunities. It's something that, frankly, the team has thought a little bit about, if you think about pie in the sky, but right now we are laser focused in making sure that, one, we complete the integration for MoGas that we lock down and get everything operationalized there. Salt Plains is actually performing very well. And lastly, that we complete the expansion of Spire Storage West.

Those are really our current focus, and that will be our focus. Once we can take a breath and get through the winter, probably next winter, because that's when the rubber meets the road for the Spire Storage West facility, then we'll start looking at where other opportunities might be. But at this juncture, I wouldn't wanna tell you to model anything in, but we do have a good path to see some step growth over the next 2.5 years.

Christopher Jeffrey (Equity Research Associate)

Great. Thank you, Steve. That, that's super helpful. And then maybe just last one from me, just kind of in terms of the reiterated guidance for 2024, if I kind of just, you know, compare that expectation for the second half of the year compared to last year's second half, kind of implies a decent amount of improvement. Just wondering, in that context of year-over-year, kind of what are you expecting to kind of be the driver of that trend improvement?

Steve Rasche (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. That's a pretty broad question. Let me focus on the utility and the corporate and other segment, because I think we've been pretty clear in what the drivers and movers are in both the midstream and the marketing segment. Yeah, if you remember last year, we had some outsized one-off costs in the corporate side in the last fiscal quarter of last year. We obviously don't expect any of that to recur this year. So from a cost perspective, you should expect to see our overall O&M costs be a lot lower. And as Scott mentioned in his prepared remarks, we are focused a lot on how we can get our costs in line and keep those in line over time. Now, we have a long history of doing this and doing this successfully.

It shouldn't be lost on you or anybody else that our actual costs in the utility are lower than they were last year, and we're gonna continue to make sure that we have the right cost structure that meet our customers' needs, but also and support the growth. And that's gonna be an ongoing process. So that will be one of the tailwinds that you will see when you compare this year versus last year. Then secondly, as Adam mentioned, now that we have largely recovered all of our deferred gas costs, and I think we can expect with April bills and as they flow through, we'll get the rest of that deferred gas cost recovered.

The headwinds on the balances in short-term debt should mitigate quite a bit and maybe turn into a tailwind. Although we have the same view that the market does, that it's probably higher for longer, getting those balances down is another way in which we should be able to create a little bit of uplift when you compare this year versus last.

Christopher Jeffrey (Equity Research Associate)

Great. Thank you. That's all for me.

Operator (participant)

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Megan McPhail for any closing remarks.

Megan McPhail (Managing Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you for joining us on the call today. We look forward to talking to you later today and in the coming weeks at AGA. Have a good day.

Operator (participant)

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.