Executive Summary

Q1 FY25 EPS of $1.34 and net income of $81.3M declined year over year on lower Missouri usage and weaker Gas Marketing, but Operating Income rose on lower gas costs and higher infrastructure-related revenues; management reaffirmed FY25 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.40–$4.60 .
Segment mix was constructive: Utility and Midstream grew (ISRS in Missouri, RSE resets in Alabama/Gulf, storage capacity and repricing), while Gas Marketing normalized lower; consolidated contribution margin increased ~$13.8M YoY .
Regulatory and legislative set-up is a key catalyst: Missouri rate case progressing (discrete adjustments allowed, ISRS filing for +$19M, staff process running to an October effective date); Missouri’s future test year legislation advanced (gas eligible starting July 2026) .
Weather drove near-term noise (MO ~18% warmer than normal; residential usage ~4% lower), but management expects recapture over the year and reiterated the long-term 5–7% EPS CAGR on 7–8% rate base growth at Spire Missouri and equity growth in Alabama/Gulf .
Wall Street consensus from S&P Global for Q1 FY25 was unavailable at time of analysis; results were assessed against company guidance and qualitative drivers (see Estimates Context).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Utility and Midstream earnings growth: Gas Utility adjusted earnings rose to $77.8M (+$2.0M YoY) on higher ISRS in Missouri and new rates/usage at Alabama/Gulf; Midstream adjusted earnings rose to $12.0M (+$9.6M YoY) on storage capacity and contract renewals at higher rates, plus MoGas .
- Cost discipline: Utility run-rate O&M was $1.6M lower YoY; interest expense decreased $3.9M; contribution margin rose across utilities .
- Management tone and strategy: “execution of our strategy,” reaffirmed FY25 EPS ($4.40–$4.60) and long-term 5–7% growth; focus on safety, reliability, and infrastructure investments; quote: “we continue to expect our fiscal 2025 earnings to be in the range of $4.40 to $4.60 per share” (Scott Doyle) .
What Went Wrong
- Weather and usage headwinds in Missouri: Quarter was ~18% warmer than normal in MO; residential usage down ~~4%, reducing volumetric margin (~~$3.4M) despite mitigation mechanism .
- Gas Marketing normalization: Adjusted earnings fell to $2.2M from $7.2M YoY on reduced basis volatility and higher transport/storage fees .
- Higher depreciation: +$3.9M YoY reflecting increased capital investment; “Other” adjusted loss widened vs prior year largely due to absence of prior-year interest hedge benefit and higher interest expense .

Financial Results

Metric	Q1 2024 (Dec 31, 2023)	Q4 2024 (Sep 30, 2024)	Q1 2025 (Dec 31, 2024)	YoY (%)	QoQ (%)	Consensus (S&P Global)	vs Consensus
Operating Revenues ($M)	$756.6	$293.8	$669.1	-11.6% (calc from )	+127.7% (calc from )	N/A	N/A
Operating Income ($M)	$139.2	$19.8	$148.8	+6.9% (calc from )	+651.5% (calc from )	N/A	N/A
Operating Margin %	18.4% (139.2/756.6)	6.7% (19.8/293.8)	22.3% (148.8/669.1)	+3.8 pp (calc from )	+15.6 pp (calc from )	N/A	N/A
Net Income ($M)	$85.1	$(25.9)	$81.3	-4.5% (calc from )	N/M (seasonal)	N/A	N/A
Net Income Margin %	11.3% (85.1/756.6)	N/M	12.1% (81.3/669.1)	+0.9 pp (calc from )	N/M	N/A	N/A
Diluted EPS ($)	$1.52	$(0.51)	$1.34	-11.8% (calc from )	N/M	N/A	N/A

Segment adjusted earnings (non-GAAP):

Segment Adjusted Earnings ($M)	Q1 2024	Q1 2025	YoY ($)
Gas Utility	$75.8	$77.8	+$2.0
Gas Marketing	$7.2	$2.2	-$5.0
Midstream	$2.4	$12.0	+$9.6
Other	$(2.7)	$(10.9)	-$8.2
Total Adjusted Earnings	$82.7	$81.1	-$1.6
Adjusted EPS	$1.47	$1.34	-$0.13

KPIs and operating drivers:

KPI	Q1 2024	Q1 2025	Commentary
Contribution Margin (Consolidated, $M)	$358.5	$372.3	+$13.8M YoY (all utilities higher; marketing down)
Missouri weather vs normal	Warmer than normal (similar)	~18% warmer than normal	Drove ~4% lower residential usage
MO residential usage change	N/A	~-4% YoY	Not fully mitigated
Utility run-rate O&M YoY	N/A	$(1.6)M vs PY	Cost management benefits
Depreciation YoY change	N/A	+$3.9M	Increased capital investment
Interest expense YoY change	N/A	$(3.9)M	Lower rates and ST debt balances

Non-GAAP disclosure: Adjusted figures reflect exclusions of fair value/timing and other items per company definitions .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EPS	FY2025	$4.40–$4.60 (Nov 2024)	$4.40–$4.60 (Feb 2025)	Maintained
Long-term EPS growth	Multi-year	5–7%	5–7%	Maintained
CapEx	FY2025	$790M	$790M	Maintained
10-year CapEx plan	Through FY2034	$7.4B	$7.4B	Maintained
Common dividend (quarterly)	Ongoing	$0.755 (FY24 Q4)	$0.785 (declared Jan 30, 2025)	Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 FY24)	Current Period (Q1 FY25)	Trend
Missouri rate case strategy	Filing planned; focus on cost recovery, weather mechanism; ISRS to bridge between cases	Case filed; procedural schedule targets Oct effective rates; staff allowing discrete adjustments; ISRS filed for +$19M rider (annualized to $72.6M if approved)	Constructive process developing; discrete adjustments positive
Weather normalization/decoupling	Acknowledged normalization mechanism; assumed “normalized weather” in FY25 guide	MO ~18% warmer than normal; mechanism not fully effective vs usage; company proposing fixes incl. decoupling/updating period	Elevated priority in case; fix could reduce volatility
Cost discipline (O&M)	FY24 utility O&M -3% YoY; flat in FY25 guide	Utility run-rate O&M -$1.6M YoY in Q1; reiterates flat FY25 utilities O&M	Continuing execution
CapEx and rate base growth	FY25 CapEx $790M; 10-year plan $7.4B (98% utility); 7–8% MO rate base growth	Reaffirmed $790M for FY25 and $7.4B plan; Q1 CapEx $260M, focus on infra and AMI	On plan
Midstream storage expansion	Step-up expected as capacity and repricing roll through	Material YoY earnings lift; additional capacity/renewals at higher rates	Run-rate uplift emerging
Gas Marketing volatility	FY24 ended below FY23; normalized outlook	Q1 down on low basis volatility; management confident in FY trajectory	Normalizing; Q2 started constructive
Legislative update (MO)	Future test year advocacy underway	Senate Bill 4 advancing; gas utilities eligible to file FTU starting July 2026	Positive regulatory construct

Management Commentary

“Our results for the first quarter reflect execution of our strategy while maintaining a focus on safety and strong operational performance… we continue to expect our fiscal 2025 earnings to be in the range of $4.40 to $4.60 per share.” — Scott Doyle, Acting President & CEO (press release) .
“We are reaffirming our long-term EPS growth target of 5–7% and our fiscal 2025 earnings guidance of $4.40 to $4.60 per share.” — Scott Doyle (call) .
On Missouri rate case: “We’re encouraged by the order that… allows for the proposal of discrete adjustments… it works to balance those out.” — Scott Doyle .
On weather and marketing: “We feel very comfortable… we’re comfortable with the plan… [and] recapture [MO margin]… achievable over the course of the year.” — Adam Woodard .

Q&A Highlights

Weather impact and recapture: Management emphasized early winter timing and potential for later-quarter normalization; Missouri usage down ~4% with warm weather, with recapture achievable over the year .
Gas Marketing outlook: Despite Q1 softness, team expects to meet segment guidance; January volatility provided a constructive backdrop .
Missouri rate case mechanics: Discrete adjustments allowed; multiple windows for settlement before/after hearings; no impact from proposed legislation on current case; FTU bill (SB 4) progressing for future cases .
O&M inflation and guidance: Utilities’ O&M expected flat for FY25 despite cost pressures; continued focus on cost control .

Estimates Context

Effort to retrieve S&P Global consensus (EPS and revenue) for Q1 FY25 failed due to request limit; consensus was therefore unavailable at time of analysis, and we cannot definitively classify beat/miss vs Street for revenue or EPS [GetEstimates error].
Management reaffirmed FY25 adjusted EPS guidance ($4.40–$4.60) in Q1 and again delivered strong Q2 results subsequently (Q2 adjusted EPS $3.60, reaffirming full-year guidance), which likely stabilizes estimate trajectories into the rate case and late-winter weather tailwinds .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Underlying trajectory is intact: Utility and Midstream are growing; cost discipline continues; guidance and long-term 5–7% EPS CAGR reaffirmed, supporting medium-term multiple stability .
Weather/usage headwinds were the main Q1 drag; fix to MO weather mechanism (potential decoupling/update) within the rate case is a material de-risking catalyst for 2026 earnings quality .
Missouri rate case path is constructive (discrete adjustments, ISRS cadence, October target for new rates); legislative progress (future test year) is a longer-term structural positive .
Midstream uplift looks durable: higher storage capacity/renewals at higher rates expanded segment earnings; provides counter-seasonal ballast to utilities .
Gas Marketing normalized lower on basis volatility; management still expects full-year within prior plan—reduces downside risk, but investors should not over-rely on this profit stream .
Short-term trading: stock likely responds to signs of a constructive MO case (staff testimony milestones, settlement signals) and any evidence the weather mechanism fix is gaining consensus; Q2’s strong print (post period) supports FY guide carry .
Medium-term: execution on $7.4B capex (98% utility), rate base growth (7–8% in MO), and O&M control underpin earnings power normalization as MO returns approach authorized levels by FY26 .

Sources: Q1 FY25 8-K/press release and exhibits ; Q1 FY25 press release ; Q1 FY25 earnings call transcript –; FY24 results materials – –; Q2 FY25 materials for trend context – –.

SPIRE INC (SR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary