Executive Summary

Seasonal Q4 loss narrowed on an adjusted basis: adjusted EPS of $(0.47) vs $(0.54) a year ago, but GAAP EPS widened to $(0.74) due to acquisition-related adjustments; consolidated operating revenues were $334.1M vs $293.8M YoY .
Against S&P Global consensus, Q4 missed on EPS and revenues: EPS $(0.47) vs $(0.38) est., revenue $334.1M vs $439.6M est.; EBITDA $79.6M vs $94.3M est. (consensus/actuals via S&P Global estimates)*.
Company introduced two-year EPS guidance and lifted capital plan: FY26 adjusted EPS $5.25–$5.45 (excludes TN acquisition), FY27 $5.65–$5.85 (includes TN, excludes storage post expected sale); 10-year CapEx target raised to $11.2B through FY2035 .
Dividend raised 5.1% to $0.825 quarterly ($3.30 annual), marking 23 consecutive years of increases; board confidence, multi-year visibility, and potential gas storage monetization are near-term stock catalysts .
Regulatory momentum and portfolio actions: Missouri rate case effective in October; future test year enacted; TN acquisition progressing (HSR complete, FERC approvals in hand, TN PUC pending); evaluating storage sale with year-end target decision .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Adjusted Q4 loss improved YoY on stronger contribution margin ($242.6M vs $224.5M) and marketing performance; full-year adjusted EPS grew 7.5% to $4.44 .
- Regulatory and guidance visibility: FY26 adjusted EPS $5.25–$5.45 (ex-TN), FY27 $5.65–$5.85 (incl. TN, excl. storage), underpinned by constructive Missouri and Alabama frameworks and capital plan .
- Management tone: “We checked all of the boxes on our Fiscal 2025 key business priorities... our 10-year capital plan... totals $11.2 billion,” highlighting execution and long-term confidence .
What Went Wrong
- Q4 missed consensus on EPS and revenue; CFO noted the quarter “fell below our expectations due to higher utility O&M expense” (seasonally weak period amplified by cost pressure)* .
- GAAP EPS loss widened to $(0.74) vs $(0.51) YoY driven by acquisition-related items (pre-tax $15.2M; $(0.26)/sh) and fair value timing ($5.4M; $(0.09)/sh), partly offset by taxes .
- Midstream Q4 adjusted earnings modestly softer YoY (pipeline O&M up), and utility O&M/ D&A rose, reflecting scale and asset growth .

Financial Results

Quarterly snapshot vs prior periods and consensus

Metric	Q4 2024	Q3 2025	Q4 2025 Actual	Q4 2025 Consensus
Operating Revenues ($M)	$293.8	$421.9	$334.1	$439.6*
GAAP Diluted EPS	$(0.51)	$0.29	$(0.74)	—
Adjusted EPS (Non-GAAP)	$(0.54)	$0.01	$(0.47)	$(0.383)*
Operating (Loss) Income ($M)	$19.8	$69.2	$(0.5)	—
EBITDA ($M)	—	—	$79.6*	$94.3*

Note: Q4 seasonality at gas utilities typically produces a consolidated loss .
Asterisked values are from S&P Global; see disclaimer below.

Q4 segment adjusted earnings (Non-GAAP)

Segment ($M)	Q4 2024	Q4 2025
Gas Utility	$(32.0)	$(31.6)
Gas Marketing	$(0.3)	$3.6
Midstream	$13.4	$12.3
Other	$(8.7)	$(8.4)
Total Adjusted	$(27.6)	$(24.1)

FY results

Metric	FY 2024	FY 2025
Operating Revenues ($M)	$2,593.0	$2,476.4
Net Income ($M)	$250.9	$271.7
GAAP Diluted EPS	$4.19	$4.37
Adjusted Earnings ($M)	$247.4	$275.5
Adjusted EPS	$4.13	$4.44

Q4 operating KPIs

KPI ($M, except shares)	Q4 2024	Q4 2025
Contribution Margin (Non-GAAP)	$224.5	$242.6
O&M Expense	$112.2	$142.8
Depreciation & Amortization	$71.1	$76.5
Natural Gas Cost	$54.6	$77.4
Weighted Avg Diluted Shares (M)	57.7	59.0

S&P Global disclaimer: Asterisked values are retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EPS	FY2026	N/A	$5.25–$5.45 (excludes TN acquisition; includes storage)	New
Adjusted EPS	FY2027	N/A	$5.65–$5.85 (includes TN; excludes storage)	New
Gas Utilities Adj. Earnings	FY2026	N/A	$285–$315M	New
Gas Marketing Adj. Earnings	FY2026	N/A	$19–$23M	New
Midstream Adj. Earnings	FY2026	N/A	$42–$48M (65% storage/35% pipeline)	New
Corporate & Other	FY2026	N/A	$(31)–$(37)M (improving on lower interest)	New
O&M Growth Target	Ongoing	Below inflation (achieved FY25)	Below inflation (FY26 plan)	Maintained
FFO/Debt Target	Multi-year	—	15%–16% (300 bps cushion to downgrade thresholds)	Target stated
Dividend	Ongoing	$0.785/qtr ($3.14/yr)	$0.825/qtr ($3.30/yr)	Raised 5.1%
10-yr Capital Plan	Through FY2035	$7.4B through FY2034	$11.2B through FY2035	Raised

Additional context:

Missouri rate case new rates effective October; future test year enacted; Alabama RSE updates begin in December .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3 FY25)	Current Period (Q4 FY25)	Trend
Regulatory outcomes	Q2: Constructive MO progress; Q3: Unanimous stipulation filed in MO rate case	MO rate case implemented Oct; MO future test year enacted; AL RSE update underway	Improving visibility
Portfolio/M&A	Q3: Agreed to acquire Piedmont TN for $2.48B; HSR process underway	HSR complete; FERC approvals for supply contracts; TN PUC pending; integration planning; TSAs lined up	Advancing to close
Storage asset strategy	Q2/Q3: Storage expansion driving earnings	Evaluating storage sale; FY27 guidance excludes storage; decision targeted by year-end	Potential monetization
Cost discipline (O&M)	Q2: O&M lower YoY; Q3: modest O&M increase	Q4 below plan due to higher utility O&M; FY26 target remains below inflation	Watch cost execution
Financing/Leverage	—	Balanced mix debt/equity/hybrids; minimal common equity; FFO/debt 15–16% target	Balance sheet focused
Midstream mix	Q3: Storage-led growth	FY26 mix 65% storage / 35% pipeline; STL/MoGAS pipeline merger approved by FERC	Stable, pending strategic review

Management Commentary

Strategy and capital plan: “Today, we are also providing Fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings per share guidance of $5.65–$5.85… Our 10-year capital plan… totals $11.2 billion” .
Regulatory and affordability: “Despite significant critical investments… customer rate increases… have been in line with the rate of inflation… electricity is two to three times more expensive than natural gas” .
Financing posture: “We are pursuing a permanent capital structure… balanced mix of debt, equity, and hybrid securities… minimal amount of Spire common shares” .
Cost discipline: “Our guide for this year is to be below the rate of inflation… that was our performance this year” .
Balance sheet targets: “We continue to target FFO to debt of 15%–16%… 300 basis points of cushion above… downgrade thresholds” .

Q&A Highlights

Financing mix and equity: Management reiterated a balanced approach with “minimal” common equity needs and openness to hybrid/equity-linked securities; storage sale outcome will factor into the mix .
O&M trajectory: Target remains below inflation, with integration best practices expected to support ongoing discipline as TN assets are onboarded .
Leverage guardrails: Path from lower end of rating thresholds toward mid-band over time, premised on Missouri recovery and cautious TN financing .
Storage process timeline: “Targeting by the end of the calendar year” for a decision; strong inbound interest noted .
Dividend policy: Expect growth to roughly track earnings; payout ratio targeted at 55%–65% range .

Estimates Context

Q4 FY2025 performance vs Wall Street consensus (S&P Global)

Metric	Actual	Consensus	Surprise
Adjusted EPS	$(0.47)	$(0.383)*	Miss
Revenue ($M)	$334.1	$439.6*	Miss
EBITDA ($M)	$79.6*	$94.3*	Miss

Target Price Consensus Mean: $93.72 (9 estimates)*.
S&P Global disclaimer: Asterisked values are retrieved from S&P Global.

Where estimates may adjust:

FY26/27 visibility and MO future test year could support higher outer-year EPS trajectories, but near-term models likely raise O&M assumptions and moderate midstream/storage contributions pending sale outcome .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Multi-year EPS guide (FY26–FY27) and dividend hike provide clearer line-of-sight to 5%–7% LT EPS growth; regulatory cadence in MO/AL underpins trajectory .
Q4 miss was cost-driven in a seasonal trough; watch O&M run-rate early in FY26 to validate “below inflation” commitment .
Portfolio reshaping is a potential re-rating catalyst: closing Piedmont TN (Q1 CY26 target) and a storage monetization decision by year-end could de-risk financing and reduce equity overhang .
Balance sheet discipline remains a focus: 15%–16% FFO/debt target and minimal common equity needs (potential hybrids) mitigate dilution concerns .
Midstream contributes but is in flux: FY26 mix 65% storage/35% pipeline; storage sale would simplify and tilt toward regulated utility earnings .
Capital intensity is stepping up with a larger, longer plan ($11.2B through FY2035); constructive recovery mechanisms (incl. MO future test year) will be key to execution and affordability .
Near-term trading setup: headline Q4 miss vs consensus contrasts with strong FY26 guide and dividend raise; stock likely trades on confidence in cost control and regulatory execution rather than Q4 seasonal results.*

Additional Disclosures:

Non-GAAP adjusted results exclude fair value timing (primarily marketing), acquisition items and other unusual/non-cash items; reconciliations provided in company materials .