Capital Investment and Expansion

In Q4 2024, discussions focused on a record $56 billion capital plan with significant roll‐forward increases for Texas and Oncor, with details on projects like transmission and resiliency investments. " " " " " In Q3 2024, the emphasis was on Oncor’s $24 billion capital plan and incremental increases (up to an additional $12 billion) driven by growth in Texas along with addressing permitting and transmission needs. " " " "

In Q2 2025, the focus is on incremental CapEx in Texas and Oncor including a $36 billion five‐year capital plan and assessments of an additional $12 billion tied to legislative developments, permitting progress, and strong growth drivers in Texas. " " "

Consistent emphasis on robust capital expenditure plans, with the current period offering a more granular view of incremental opportunities and execution risks amid continued Texas growth. " " "

LNG Business Expansion

Q4 2024 discussions detailed progress on Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 and Phase 2, highlighting partnerships with Aramco, EPC agreements, and the expected FID in 2025. " " In Q3 2024, the focus was on Phase 2 progress with Saudi Aramco as an anchor partner, ongoing commercial discussions and permitting issues. " " "

Q2 2025 highlights steady progress: Phase I construction is more than 50% complete, and Phase II has secured all major permits including a long-term 20‑year SPA with JERA. The market outlook is optimistic with emphasis on energy security and efficient LNG positioning in global markets. " " "

The narrative remains focused on LNG expansion, but there is a shift from an Aramco-centric discussion to new long-term SPAs with JERA, reflecting evolving partnership dynamics while overall progress remains steady. " " "

Regulatory Environment Dynamics

In Q4 2024 the conversation included detailed discussion on specific regulatory cases such as the California rate case, FERC decisions (including CAISO adder issues), and bills like HB 2668, along with region-specific measures and challenges. " " " " " In Q3 2024, emphasis was placed on California’s GRC details and supporting measures in Texas such as permitting improvements. " " "

Q2 2025 presents a broader regulatory narrative: while still noting policy uncertainties (wildfire legislation and California rate cases), it highlights favorable Texas legislative initiatives (e.g. House Bill 5247 and UTM filings) and a focus on strengthening regulatory compacts and capital execution strategies. " " " "

There is a clear shift from discussing region-specific regulatory challenges to a wider emphasis on overall regulatory frameworks and execution factors, particularly leveraging positive Texas developments. " " " "

Equity and Funding Concerns

In Q4 2024, the focus was on the established $3 billion ATM program, asset sales (especially Mexican assets), and a balanced financing strategy to support a large capital plan, with discussions on maintaining strong credit metrics. " " " Q3 2024 similarly focused on the ATM equity program as a flexible funding tool without mentioning major strategic partnerships. " " "

In Q2 2025, the narrative changes to emphasize a potential KKR deal for an equity sale, targeting a range between 15% and 30% ownership, with discussions on its potential benefits for EPS, credit profile, and deconsolidation, marking a strategic shift from the earlier ATM program focus. " "

The focus evolved from relying on ATM-based equity programs to exploring strategic equity sales (via the KKR deal), reflecting evolving dilution risks and changing transaction timing dynamics. " "

EPS Growth Outlook vs. Near-Term Dilution

Q4 2024 emphasized strong long-term EPS growth targets (with a revised full-year 2025 EPS guidance) while noting near-term pressures from regulatory outcomes and increased capital expenditures. " " " In Q3 2024, the narrative highlighted a 6%–8% EPS growth outlook supported by strategic financing (including the ATM program), balanced against dilution concerns. " "

Q2 2025 reaffirms long-term EPS growth guidance (with targets for 2025 and 2026) but also underscores the near-term dilution risks from capital recycling initiatives and potential equity sales (e.g. the KKR deal), contributing to short-term earnings pressures. " " "

The mixed sentiment continues, with strong long-term EPS growth targets maintained while near-term dilution risks are now increasingly linked to new funding initiatives, intensifying concerns over immediate earnings pressures. " " "

Shifts in Narrative

In Q4 2024, discussions included both detailed region-specific issues (California rate cases, CAISO adder) and broader capital execution strategies. Q3 2024 maintained a focus on regulatory details (for instance, the California GRC) alongside disciplined capital allocation but did not explicitly note a narrative shift. " " " "

Q2 2025 marks an evident shift away from hyper-specific regional regulatory cases to a broader strategic emphasis on regulatory and capital execution factors—highlighting Texas developments such as HB 5247, incremental CapEx, and more generalized regulatory frameworks, moving the narrative toward overall operational excellence. " " "

The narrative is shifting towards a broader and more integrated focus on capital execution and regulatory frameworks rather than being anchored in specific regional issues, reflecting a strategic repositioning to support long-term growth. " " "