EPS Guidance

FY 2025

Affirmed adjusted EPS guidance range "

Revised to $4.30 to $4.70 " "

cannot determine

EPS Guidance

FY 2026

no prior guidance (guidance to be provided later)

Provided for the first time at $4.80 to $5.30 "

no prior guidance

Long-Term EPS Growth Rate

Long-Term

Projected long-term EPS growth rate "

Updated to 7% to 9% " " "

cannot determine

Dividend Growth

FY 2025

no prior guidance

Increased annualized dividend to $2.58 per share " "

no prior guidance

Oncor Rate Base Growth

Long-Term

no prior guidance

Expected to roughly double from $26B to over $52B—with an additional $12B of incremental capital investments " "

no prior guidance

EPS Growth Guidance Adjustments & Dilution Risks

Q1 discussions highlighted a consistent 6%-8% long‐term EPS growth expectation and no need for additional equity (Q1: " " ); Q2 reiterated EPS guidance ranges with confidence in performance ( " " " ); Q3 noted comfort with a 6%-8% growth target and referenced the use of an ATM equity program to manage dilution ( " " ).

Q4 detailed a revised 2025 EPS guidance range with a lower near-term outlook but an upgraded long-term growth forecast (7%-9%) and acknowledged minor dilution risks related to equity sales ( " " " ).

Consistent focus on EPS guidance evolves from steady growth expectations to a strategic recalibration that lowers short-term guidance while emphasizing stronger long-term potential.

Oncor Capital Expansion & Rate Base Growth Opportunities

Q1 detailed Oncor’s 5‐year capital plan of about $24.2 billion including system resiliency filings ( " ); Q2 discussed the execution of a $24 billion plan with a $3 billion SRP filing ( " " ); Q3 emphasized expected increases (40%-50% increase in the plan) with expanded transmission and load growth ( " " ).

Q4 announced a record 5‐year capital plan of $36 billion, significant rate base growth (15% increase) and new interconnection request metrics driving future potential ( " " " ).

A consistently bullish narrative with progressively larger investments and aggressive rate base growth, reflecting an increasingly strong positioning in Texas.

LNG Project Development, Permitting Challenges, and Cost Management

Q1 presented advanced stages for ECA LNG Phase 1 and Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 with robust commercial interest, noting a DOE permit pause ( " " ); Q2 reiterated progress on Port Arthur phases, highlighting fixed price EPC agreements and minor schedule adjustments ( " " " ); Q3 provided detailed updates on both Phase 1 and Phase 2 projects along with anticipated permitting milestones ( " " " " ).

Q4 emphasized further progress on LNG projects including an FID target for Port Arthur LNG Phase 2, continuous construction benefits, and cost–efficiency measures, while also addressing critical permitting (DOE non-FTA permit) milestones ( " " ).

The topic remains a consistent focus with steady operational progress and disciplined cost management, though permitting challenges continue to be a cautious element in the narrative.

Regulatory Uncertainty and Delayed Approvals

Q1 mentioned expectations for a proposed California rate case decision with retroactive effect and noted DOE permit issues without significant impact ( " ); Q2 discussed CPUC delays and pending DOE non-FTA export permit while expecting a proposed decision later in the year ( " " ); Q3 highlighted ongoing uncertainty in the California GRC process and pending DOE export permit resolution ( " " " " ).

Q4 noted that the final decision on California rate cases was less favorable than anticipated, with added pressure from an unexpected FERC CAISO adder and further regulatory lag impacting financial planning ( " " " ).

While regulatory topics have been consistently present, the sentiment has shifted from cautious optimism in earlier periods to increased concern in Q4 due to adverse final rate case outcomes and unexpected regulatory costs.

Capital Expenditure Demands and Financing Strategy Concerns

Q1 outlined a $24.2 billion 5‐year capital plan with an incremental SRP and strong balance sheet performance, dismissing the need for new equity ( " " ); Q2 reiterated similar capital expenditures with ongoing use of the ATM equity program to support growth ( " " ); Q3 described an increased capital plan at Oncor with flexible financing via a $3 billion ATM program and disciplined capital allocation ( " " " ).

Q4 introduced a record $56 billion capital plan over 2025–2029 with detailed financing strategies including planned net equity issuance, an established ATM program, and approved SRP filings that fit within a broader aggressive growth mandate ( " " " " " " ).

The discussion shows a steady escalation in capital expenditure demands and a corresponding evolution in financing strategies, moving from moderate growth financing to a bold, record-setting capital plan that necessitates sophisticated equity and debt management.

Supply Chain and Labor Constraints Impacting Project Timelines

Q1 mentioned some supply chain constraints but overall confidence in securing materials and labor for Oncor, with minimal overall disruption ( " " ); Q2 raised significant concerns for the ECA LNG project due to craft labor constraints in Baja California, resulting in a delay to spring 2026 ( " " ).

Q4 did not feature any significant references to supply chain or labor constraints impacting project timelines.

This topic emerged sharply in Q2 but appears to have been effectively mitigated or resolved by Q4, indicating improved project execution conditions over time.

Parent Company Financial Challenges Offsetting Subsidiary Gains

Q1 noted a $48 million negative impact for Sempra Parent primarily due to higher taxes, with an expectation of turnaround over the year ( " ); Q2 reported a $10 million net change influenced by lower taxes offset by higher interest expenses ( " ); Q3 mentioned a $3 million net change driven by higher taxes and offset by investment gains ( " ).

Q4 described that improved performance at Sempra Texas was more than offset by additional losses at the parent company, largely due to financing methods and cost structure pressures ( " ).

The narrative remains mixed, with recurring challenges at the parent level—primarily tax and financing structure issues—continually offsetting subsidiary gains, though the magnitude varies across periods.

High-Growth Market Opportunities in Texas

Q1 highlighted robust growth with Oncor serving millions of customers and rising peak load forecasts driven by diverse industrial growth ( " ); Q2 focused on strong capital investment needs in Texas with growing annual premise and load increases along with significant interconnection requests ( " " " ); Q3 emphasized digital infrastructure demand, legislative support shortening permitting timelines, and substantial transmission investments leveraging AI and data center demand ( " " " ).

Q4 underscored even stronger growth with Texas experiencing record population and economic expansion, a record-setting $36 billion capital plan for Oncor, and dramatically increased interconnection request volumes from large commercial and industrial customers ( " " ).

The market opportunity in Texas is consistently portrayed in a bullish light, with each period reinforcing and amplifying the growth prospects. Q4 shows the most emphatic and record-level commitment to capturing this high-growth potential.