Executive Summary

Q4 2024 revenue was $28.05M, above the high end of company guidance ($25–$28M) and above S&P Global consensus of $26.78M; adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $6.9M, within guidance ($5–$8M) and materially better year over year . Revenue consensus and EPS consensus values marked with * are from S&P Global*.
GAAP net income was $1.3M versus a net loss of $111.0M in Q4 2023; improvement reflected exiting unprofitable routes, M&A synergies, and a $38.9M reversal of unearned compensation in Q4 2024 .
Management reaffirmed 2025 targets: revenues to exceed $100M and airline operations to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA; Q1 2025 guidance: revenue $21–$24M and adjusted EBITDA loss $12–$15M, reflecting maintenance backlog clearing and route optimization .
Strategic catalysts: rollout of SurfOS with six beta users, re‑fleeting with new Cessna Caravans, and progress toward 2027 electrified Caravan STC; a $50M term loan and extended maturities reduced near‑term liquidity risk and cost of capital .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Revenue exceeded guidance and improved y/y; Q4 revenue of $28.05M topped the $25–$28M range, with On Demand service revenue up 39% and adjusted EBITDA loss improving 63% y/y to $6.9M .
Liquidity and cost of capital improved: secured a $50M term loan, extended maturities to 2028, and reduced liabilities by >$42M, positioning for profitable growth .
Technology execution: launched SurfOS to six beta users and integrated maintenance and operations tools (CAMP, Veryon, crew app, weight & balance), with management emphasizing efficiency and revenue management benefits from AI‑enabled software .

What Went Wrong

Mixed segment momentum and disclosure discrepancies: press release cited Scheduled service revenue down 4% and On Demand up 39%, while the call cited Scheduled down 6% and On Demand up 58%, indicating potential reporting timing or definitional differences that investors should monitor .
Q1 2025 outlook implies near‑term EBITDA pressure (loss of $12–$15M) due to maintenance backlog clearing and corrosion/interior work impacting aircraft availability .
Continued reliance on non‑GAAP adjustments and fair‑value marks: FY 2024 included a $43M reversal of unearned compensation and significant changes in fair value of financial instruments; investors should separate underlying operations from non‑recurring items .

Financial Results

Quarterly Comparison vs Prior Periods

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$32.37	$28.39	$28.05
GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)	$(26.98)	$(12.23)	$1.27
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$(11.83)	$(8.94)	$(6.88)
EPS ($USD)	$(0.33)	$(0.94)	N/A (not disclosed)

Notes: Q4 net income included a $38.9M reversal of unearned compensation; Q4 y/y comparison for prior period included a $60M goodwill impairment in Q4 2023 .

Q4 2024 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus

Metric	Actual	Consensus
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$28.05	$26.78*
EPS ($USD)	N/A (not disclosed)	$(0.67)*
Adjusted EBITDA vs EBITDA ($USD Millions)	Adjusted EBITDA: $(6.88)	EBITDA: $(7.25)*

Important: Company reports Adjusted EBITDA; consensus is for EBITDA. Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Trends (YoY growth)

Segment Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Scheduled Service Revenue YoY (%)	+13.8%	+2%	−4%
On Demand Service Revenue YoY (%)	+11.8%	−13%	+39%

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance/Outcome	Change
Revenue	Q4 2024	$25M–$28M	$28.05M actual	Bold: Exceeded high end
Adjusted EBITDA	Q4 2024	$(5)M–$(8)M	$(6.9)M actual	Maintained (within range)
Revenue	Q1 2025	—	$21M–$24M	New
Adjusted EBITDA	Q1 2025	—	$(12)M–$(15)M	New
Revenue	FY 2025	“> $100M” (previously disclosed)	Reaffirm “> $100M”	Maintained
Airline operations Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	“Positive adjusted EBITDA” (previously disclosed)	Reaffirm positive adjusted EBITDA	Maintained

No explicit guidance provided for tax rate, OI&E, OpEx line items, or dividends in these materials .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3)	Current Period (Q4)	Trend
SurfOS / AI-enabled software	Q2: Announced venture with Palantir; pilot check-in app, LLM “Ask Sam,” digitized flight logs . Q3: Continued development toward efficiency gains .	Q4: Six beta users; integrations (CAMP, Veryon, Avinode, FlyEasy); crew app, weight & balance tool; BI dashboards; planned 2026 commercial rollout .	Accelerating deployment and external validation
EAS / Regulatory tailwinds	Q2: FAA Reauthorization lifted subsidy cap to ≥$650 per passenger; equal weighting of total cost aids low-cost Caravan economics . Q3: EAS communities supported at 20 .	Q4 Q&A: Some DOT awards delayed under continuing resolution; held-in notices at higher subsidy rates are potential upside .	Tailwind with timing uncertainty
Network optimization & re‑fleeting	Q2: Discontinued unprofitable routes . Q3: Two new aircraft deliveries; unplanned maintenance hit completion factor .	Q4: Accepted four new Caravans; returned five older aircraft in Q1’25; centralized SOC in Dallas; staffing and schedule optimization .	Operational reliability and cost base improving
On Demand business recalibration	Q2: +11.8% departures; growth . Q3: −13% revenue due to focus on profitability .	Q4: +39% revenue; sales/process optimization; jet card rebranding; reduced sales team by ~50% .	Reoriented toward profitable growth
Liquidity / capital structure	Q2: Working to secure non/less-dilutive credit facility .	Q3: Closed $50M term loan; reduced liabilities >$42M . Q4: Entered 2025 with lower cost of capital, extended maturities .	Strengthened balance sheet
Electrification / STC	Q2: Concept design phase by Q4’24; STC 2027 . Q3: Program “on track” .	Q4: Engaged with FAA; CAB established; MOUs with seven customers (~100 Caravans); Electra Aero eSTOL partnership .	Advancing partner ecosystem and customer pipeline

Management Commentary

“We will measure our success based on our execution of our Transformation Plan… The entire organization is now laser focused on the Optimization phase with the goal of reaching profitability in our airline operations in 2025.” — Deanna White, CEO/COO .
“Revenue rose 5% to $28.05 million… adjusted EBITDA loss improved by $11.5 million or 63%… We are aggressively managing costs and prioritizing profitability over top line growth.” — Oliver Reeves, CFO .
“SurfOS is an all-in-one AI-enhanced software platform… revenue management features such as dynamic pricing, predictive demand and flight distribution are key to maximizing revenue… crew scheduling, maintenance and resource planning…” — Deanna White .
“We secured a $50 million term loan… extended maturities to December 31, 2028… reduced liabilities by over $42 million… we expect to achieve profitability in airline operations for the full year 2025.” — Oliver Reeves .

Q&A Highlights

EAS contract timing: DOT awards are delayed under a continuing resolution; SAM is being held-in on some routes and can operate at higher subsidy rates, a potential revenue upside .
On Demand fleet usage: On Demand largely served by ~400 partner operators; SAM uses its fleet primarily for scheduled service, not shifting airframes materially to on-demand .
SurfOS monetization: Broker and operator OS are in beta and pre‑revenue; early customer feedback is positive with direct‑to‑consumer functionality and internal efficiency metrics (e.g., ~20% call center reduction) .
Electrification JV timing: JV discussions are ongoing; no 2025 milestone committed yet; updates will be announced when finalized .
Cost trajectory and maintenance backlog: Airline operating costs expected to decline to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA in 2025; Q1 guidance assumes resolving a substantial portion of the maintenance backlog with some continuation thereafter .
Liquidity posture: Strategic approach to capital raises focused on high ROIC opportunities; balance sheet seen as adequate to execute current plan .

Estimates Context

Q4 2024 revenue beat: Actual $28.05M vs S&P Global consensus $26.78M; management also beat its own guidance range high end . Consensus values marked with * are from S&P Global*.
EPS: S&P Global consensus $(0.67)*; actual EPS was not disclosed in the 8‑K or the call. Investors should focus on revenue and adjusted EBITDA versus guidance for this quarter .
EBITDA vs Adjusted EBITDA: S&P Global consensus EBITDA was $(7.25)M* while company reported Adjusted EBITDA of $(6.88)M; note metric mismatch (GAAP EBITDA vs company’s non‑GAAP Adjusted EBITDA) .
Forward adjustments: Reaffirmed FY 2025 “> $100M” revenue and positive adjusted EBITDA for airline operations plus Q1 guidance imply consensus models may need to reflect near‑term EBITDA pressure (maintenance clearing) and improved second‑half run‑rate from optimization initiatives .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Bold: Revenue and adjusted EBITDA both outperformed company guidance; Q4 revenue above the high end and adjusted EBITDA loss better y/y, supporting the optimization narrative .
Balance sheet risk mitigated: $50M term loan, extended maturities to 2028, and >$42M liability reduction lower financing risk and cost of capital; watch subsequent capital strategy for software/electrification JV separation .
Execution catalysts: SurfOS beta rollout, operations center relocation to Dallas, and re‑fleeting with new Caravans should improve completion factor and margins through 2025 .
Segment dynamics: Bold: On Demand recovery (+39% y/y) offsets Scheduled service declines (−4% y/y) amid route exit strategy; monitor consistency between press release and call metrics (−4% vs −6%; +39% vs +58%) .
Regulatory tailwinds: FAA Reauthorization increases EAS subsidy cap; held‑in notices during CR allow running at higher subsidy rates; supports Scheduled economics, though timing of awards is uncertain .
Near‑term caution: Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA guided at $(12)M–$(15)M reflecting maintenance backlog clearing; expect sequential improvement thereafter as optimization benefits flow through .
Medium‑term thesis: Bold: 2025 target for profitable airline operations (positive adjusted EBITDA), 2026 SurfOS commercialization, and 2027 electrified Caravan STC provide a multi‑year catalyst path, contingent on execution and JV capital formation .

SURF AIR MOBILITY INC. (SRFM)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary