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SURO CAPITAL CORP. (SSSS)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 NAV per share was $6.66 (net assets $156.8M), essentially flat vs Q4 2024 ($6.68) and down vs Q1 2024 ($7.17). Net investment loss was $(3.7)M or $(0.16)/sh; net change in unrealized appreciation was +$2.9M, yielding a small net decrease in net assets from operations of $(0.8)M. Note: the detailed statement shows $(0.03)/sh, while the summary table shows $(0.04)/sh (rounding) .
  • Liquidity ended at ~$18.1M (cash ~$16.2M; ~$1.9M unrestricted public securities) with an additional ~$20.4M of public securities subject to lockups (ServiceTitan and CoreWeave) .
  • Estimates context: Q1 Primary EPS (NII per share) missed by ~$0.02 (actual $(0.16) vs $(0.14)), and “Revenue” (total investment income) missed by ~$0.73M (actual $0.50M vs $1.23M) on one estimate each; the shortfall reflects much lower investment income vs prior year ($0.50M vs $1.53M) as U.S. T-bill income rolled off and portfolio income was modest . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Portfolio catalysts: CoreWeave completed the largest tech IPO since 2021; OpenAI closed a $40B raise at a $300B valuation. ServiceTitan shares are expected to be tradable by June 2025 and CoreWeave by September 2025; management reiterated it typically exits public holdings post-lockup and then evaluates distributions of realized gains .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Unrealized gains: Net change in unrealized appreciation of +$2.9M ($0.12/sh) offset a large portion of the net investment loss, helping keep NAV/share stable Q/Q .
    • Portfolio momentum: Management highlighted CoreWeave’s IPO and OpenAI’s $40B financing ($300B post) as key value drivers; “We believe our portfolio is well positioned for when the IPO window reopens” .
    • Clear monetization roadmap: “We don’t view ourselves as holders of public securities… when the lockup expires… we would exit the position” (re: ServiceTitan). Expected tradability: ServiceTitan by June 2025; CoreWeave by Sept 2025 .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Investment income down sharply vs prior year ($0.50M vs $1.53M) as T-bill interest and controlled investment interest declined; operating expenses remained elevated, resulting in $(3.66)M NII .
    • Consensus misses: NII/share came in below the single estimate and total investment income also missed a single estimate (limited coverage) as portfolio income was light in the quarter (see Estimates Context) (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
    • Ongoing expense ratios: Annualized ratio of operating expenses/avg net assets rose Y/Y (10.79% in Q1 2025 vs 9.44% in Q1 2024) and the ratio of net investment loss/avg net assets remained negative (−9.49%) .

Financial Results

Quarterly trend – P&L, NAV, and ratios

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Investment Loss ($USD Millions)$(3.21) $(3.9) $(3.66)
Net Change in Unrealized Appreciation/Depreciation ($USD Millions)$11.61 $(5.20) $2.89
Net Change in Net Assets from Operations per Share (Basic)$(0.23) <$0.01 $(0.03)
NAV per Share (Period-End)$6.73 $6.68 $6.66
Ratio: Net Operating Expenses / Avg Net Assets (annualized)10.10% 10.68% 10.79%
Ratio: Net Investment Loss / Avg Net Assets (annualized)−7.91% −8.00% −9.49%

Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024 – income statement bridge

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Total Investment Income ($USD)$1,528,091 $499,094
Net Investment Loss ($USD)$(3,222,902) $(3,661,769)
Net Realized Gain/(Loss) on Investments ($USD)$(424,074) $(17,951)
Net Change in Unrealized Appreciation/Depreciation ($USD)$(18,418,370) $2,888,878
Net Decrease in Net Assets from Operations ($USD)$(22,065,346) $(806,715)
Net Change in Net Assets from Operations per Share (Basic)$(0.87) $(0.03)
Net Investment Loss per Share (Basic)$(0.13) $(0.16)

Q1 2025 vs Wall Street consensus (S&P Global)

MetricConsensusActualDelta
Primary EPS (NII/share)$(0.14)*$(0.16) Miss $(0.02)*
Total Investment Income ($USD)$1,229,000*$499,094 Miss $(729,906)*

Values retrieved from S&P Global. Coverage is limited (1 estimate for each metric).
Note: Company reports “Net investment loss per share” $(0.16), and “net change in net assets from operations per share” $(0.03) (press table rounds to $(0.04)) .

Key KPIs and balance sheet items

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Investments at Fair Value ($USD Millions)$199.3 $209.4 $213.6
Net Assets ($USD Millions)$157.4 $157.6 $156.8
NAV/Share ($)$6.73 $6.68 $6.66
Portfolio Companies (Count)37 37 37
Top-5 Concentration (% of FV)47.3% 44.3% 45.6%
Liquid Assets ($USD Millions)$39.5 $23.6 $18.1
6.00% Notes due 2026 – Face ($USD Millions)$49.75 $44.67 $39.67
6.50% Convertible Notes due 2029 – Face ($USD Millions)$25.0 $30.0 $35.0

Portfolio allocation by investment theme (% of portfolio FV)

ThemeQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
AI Infrastructure & Applications21% 28% 28%
Software-as-a-Service26% 24% 22%
Consumer Goods & Services16% 14% 17%
FinTech & Services9% 8% 12%
Education Technology15% 13% 12%
Logistics & Supply Chain11% 11% 8%
SuRo Sports2% 2% 2%

Guidance Changes

Metric/ItemPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent UpdateStatus
Q1 2025 NAV/Share (Prelim)Q1 2025$6.50–$7.00 prelim range Reported $6.66 Finalized
ServiceTitan share tradability2025N/AExpected registered/freely tradable by June 2025 Timing update
CoreWeave share tradability2025N/AExpected registered/freely tradable by Sept 2025 Timing update
Dividend policyOngoingDistribute net realized gains (BDC requirement) Management will communicate timing; if realized gains by year-end, distribution by year-end or early Q1 next year Maintained
Note repurchase program (6.00% due 2026)Authorized up to $35.0MFully utilized: $35.3M aggregate principal repurchased as of 3/31/25 Completed
6.50% Convertible Notes due 2029 outstandingAs of 3/31/25$30.0M (12/31/24) $35.0M (issued $5.0M on Jan 16, 2025) Increased

No formal quantitative revenue/expense/margin guidance was provided.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Prior-2)Q4 2024 (Prior-1)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
AI infrastructure momentumInitiated/expanded positions in OpenAI, CoreWeave, VAST; AI ~21% of portfolio Reinforced AI focus; $54.5M invested in 2024 CoreWeave IPO; OpenAI $40B at $300B; believes AI infra demand robust Strengthening
IPO window outlookAnticipated reopening; listed likely IPO names “Another compelling moment” akin to 2020–21; CoreWeave filed S-1 “Well positioned for when IPO window reopens” Improving
Lockups/valuation discountsN/AServiceTitan IPO; public positions exited post-lockup Explicit discounting for unregistered shares; removal upon registration Clearer process
Capital structureAnnounced 6.5% converts; note repurchase program Converts at $35M outstanding by Jan 16, 2025; note repurchases continue $35M converts outstanding; note repurchases fully utilized ($35.3M) Stable
Dividend/distributionsN/AReiterated BDC distribution of realized gains Will distribute realized gains by year-end if applicable; communicate proactively Maintained
Macro/tariffs/volatilityN/AN/ANoted Q1/Q2 market turbulence and tariff uncertainty; tech capex commitment supportive Watch item

Management Commentary

  • Strategic posture: “We believe our portfolio is well positioned for when the IPO window reopens. Our companies continue to execute at a high level” .
  • Monetization approach: “We don’t view ourselves as holders of public securities… when the lockup expires… we would exit the position” (re: ServiceTitan) .
  • Lockup/valuation methodology: “Discounts… applied to CoreWeave and ServiceTitan… related to the fact that the shares… are not registered… when they become registered… we will remove that discount” .
  • NAV bridge and share count: “We ended the first quarter… with an NAV/share of $6.66… decrease… primarily driven by $(0.16)/sh NII, offset by +$0.12/sh unrealized appreciation and +$0.02/sh stock-based comp” .
  • AI positioning: CoreWeave as “underappreciated” post-IPO; marked at $31.52/sh at Q1 close vs “over $54” post-quarter; OpenAI funding and usage ramp cited as structural tailwinds .

Q&A Highlights

  • Exit of ServiceTitan post-lockup and redeployment: Management reiterated it intends to sell public holdings when lockups expire and is seeing the “most opportunities now” in AI and AI-adjacent areas .
  • Discounting unregistered shares: CFO explained discounts are applied while unregistered and removed upon registration; this applies to both direct CoreWeave holdings and the CW Opportunity 2 LP SPV .
  • Dividend timing: If net realized gains occur by year-end, distributions would be made by year-end, with any residual paid early the next year; management aims to communicate early .
  • OpenAI valuation mark: The apparent “doubling” headline includes pre- vs post-money effects; the actual mark-up is “quite a bit less” than 100% .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 Primary EPS (NII/share): Consensus −$0.14 vs actual −$0.16 (miss −$0.02).
  • Q1 2025 Total Investment Income: Consensus $1.229M vs actual $0.499M (miss −$0.730M).
  • Coverage was limited (1 estimate per metric). The shortfall reflects a sharp decline in investment income vs prior year and continued elevated operating expenses . Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • NAV resilience: Despite low investment income, +$2.9M unrealized appreciation stabilized NAV/share at $6.66 (down $0.02 Q/Q) .
  • Near-term catalysts: ServiceTitan expected tradable by June 2025 and CoreWeave by September 2025; management intends to exit post-lockup, potentially creating realized gains and dividend capacity .
  • AI optionality: CoreWeave’s IPO and OpenAI’s $40B financing underpin portfolio exposure to AI infrastructure and applications (~28% of FV), a core narrative into 2H 2025 .
  • Capital structure: 6.5% converts outstanding at $35M and 6.00% notes repurchase fully utilized ($35.3M retired) reduce near-term refinancing overhang for 2026 maturities .
  • Watchlist items: Expense ratios remain high; investment income is lumpy. NAV sensitivity to public marks and removal of registration discounts is material in coming quarters .
  • Trading lens: Stock is likely to react to (i) lockup expiries/monetizations and dividend declarations, (ii) CoreWeave price action and registration timing, and (iii) any updates on additional late-stage portfolio IPOs (e.g., Canva, Lime, Liquid Death) .

Notes and sources:

  • Q1 2025 8-K and press release financials, portfolio, NAV, liquidity, debt, and program updates .
  • Q1 2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A) for strategy, catalysts, lockups/discounts, dividend framework, and NAV bridge .
  • Prior quarters (Q4 2024, Q3 2024) for trend analysis: NAV, portfolio, expense ratios, and context .
  • Estimates: S&P Global consensus and actual comparison (limited coverage; 1 estimate each). Values retrieved from S&P Global.