SC
SURO CAPITAL CORP. (SSSS)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 NAV per share was $6.66 (net assets $156.8M), essentially flat vs Q4 2024 ($6.68) and down vs Q1 2024 ($7.17). Net investment loss was $(3.7)M or $(0.16)/sh; net change in unrealized appreciation was +$2.9M, yielding a small net decrease in net assets from operations of $(0.8)M. Note: the detailed statement shows $(0.03)/sh, while the summary table shows $(0.04)/sh (rounding) .
- Liquidity ended at ~$18.1M (cash ~$16.2M; ~$1.9M unrestricted public securities) with an additional ~$20.4M of public securities subject to lockups (ServiceTitan and CoreWeave) .
- Estimates context: Q1 Primary EPS (NII per share) missed by ~$0.02 (actual $(0.16) vs $(0.14)), and “Revenue” (total investment income) missed by ~$0.73M (actual $0.50M vs $1.23M) on one estimate each; the shortfall reflects much lower investment income vs prior year ($0.50M vs $1.53M) as U.S. T-bill income rolled off and portfolio income was modest . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Portfolio catalysts: CoreWeave completed the largest tech IPO since 2021; OpenAI closed a $40B raise at a $300B valuation. ServiceTitan shares are expected to be tradable by June 2025 and CoreWeave by September 2025; management reiterated it typically exits public holdings post-lockup and then evaluates distributions of realized gains .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Unrealized gains: Net change in unrealized appreciation of +$2.9M ($0.12/sh) offset a large portion of the net investment loss, helping keep NAV/share stable Q/Q .
- Portfolio momentum: Management highlighted CoreWeave’s IPO and OpenAI’s $40B financing ($300B post) as key value drivers; “We believe our portfolio is well positioned for when the IPO window reopens” .
- Clear monetization roadmap: “We don’t view ourselves as holders of public securities… when the lockup expires… we would exit the position” (re: ServiceTitan). Expected tradability: ServiceTitan by June 2025; CoreWeave by Sept 2025 .
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What Went Wrong
- Investment income down sharply vs prior year ($0.50M vs $1.53M) as T-bill interest and controlled investment interest declined; operating expenses remained elevated, resulting in $(3.66)M NII .
- Consensus misses: NII/share came in below the single estimate and total investment income also missed a single estimate (limited coverage) as portfolio income was light in the quarter (see Estimates Context) (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
- Ongoing expense ratios: Annualized ratio of operating expenses/avg net assets rose Y/Y (10.79% in Q1 2025 vs 9.44% in Q1 2024) and the ratio of net investment loss/avg net assets remained negative (−9.49%) .
Financial Results
Quarterly trend – P&L, NAV, and ratios
Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024 – income statement bridge
Q1 2025 vs Wall Street consensus (S&P Global)
Values retrieved from S&P Global. Coverage is limited (1 estimate for each metric).
Note: Company reports “Net investment loss per share” $(0.16), and “net change in net assets from operations per share” $(0.03) (press table rounds to $(0.04)) .
Key KPIs and balance sheet items
Portfolio allocation by investment theme (% of portfolio FV)
Guidance Changes
No formal quantitative revenue/expense/margin guidance was provided.
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategic posture: “We believe our portfolio is well positioned for when the IPO window reopens. Our companies continue to execute at a high level” .
- Monetization approach: “We don’t view ourselves as holders of public securities… when the lockup expires… we would exit the position” (re: ServiceTitan) .
- Lockup/valuation methodology: “Discounts… applied to CoreWeave and ServiceTitan… related to the fact that the shares… are not registered… when they become registered… we will remove that discount” .
- NAV bridge and share count: “We ended the first quarter… with an NAV/share of $6.66… decrease… primarily driven by $(0.16)/sh NII, offset by +$0.12/sh unrealized appreciation and +$0.02/sh stock-based comp” .
- AI positioning: CoreWeave as “underappreciated” post-IPO; marked at $31.52/sh at Q1 close vs “over $54” post-quarter; OpenAI funding and usage ramp cited as structural tailwinds .
Q&A Highlights
- Exit of ServiceTitan post-lockup and redeployment: Management reiterated it intends to sell public holdings when lockups expire and is seeing the “most opportunities now” in AI and AI-adjacent areas .
- Discounting unregistered shares: CFO explained discounts are applied while unregistered and removed upon registration; this applies to both direct CoreWeave holdings and the CW Opportunity 2 LP SPV .
- Dividend timing: If net realized gains occur by year-end, distributions would be made by year-end, with any residual paid early the next year; management aims to communicate early .
- OpenAI valuation mark: The apparent “doubling” headline includes pre- vs post-money effects; the actual mark-up is “quite a bit less” than 100% .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 Primary EPS (NII/share): Consensus −$0.14 vs actual −$0.16 (miss −$0.02).
- Q1 2025 Total Investment Income: Consensus $1.229M vs actual $0.499M (miss −$0.730M).
- Coverage was limited (1 estimate per metric). The shortfall reflects a sharp decline in investment income vs prior year and continued elevated operating expenses . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- NAV resilience: Despite low investment income, +$2.9M unrealized appreciation stabilized NAV/share at $6.66 (down $0.02 Q/Q) .
- Near-term catalysts: ServiceTitan expected tradable by June 2025 and CoreWeave by September 2025; management intends to exit post-lockup, potentially creating realized gains and dividend capacity .
- AI optionality: CoreWeave’s IPO and OpenAI’s $40B financing underpin portfolio exposure to AI infrastructure and applications (~28% of FV), a core narrative into 2H 2025 .
- Capital structure: 6.5% converts outstanding at $35M and 6.00% notes repurchase fully utilized ($35.3M retired) reduce near-term refinancing overhang for 2026 maturities .
- Watchlist items: Expense ratios remain high; investment income is lumpy. NAV sensitivity to public marks and removal of registration discounts is material in coming quarters .
- Trading lens: Stock is likely to react to (i) lockup expiries/monetizations and dividend declarations, (ii) CoreWeave price action and registration timing, and (iii) any updates on additional late-stage portfolio IPOs (e.g., Canva, Lime, Liquid Death) .
Notes and sources:
- Q1 2025 8-K and press release financials, portfolio, NAV, liquidity, debt, and program updates .
- Q1 2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A) for strategy, catalysts, lockups/discounts, dividend framework, and NAV bridge .
- Prior quarters (Q4 2024, Q3 2024) for trend analysis: NAV, portfolio, expense ratios, and context .
- Estimates: S&P Global consensus and actual comparison (limited coverage; 1 estimate each). Values retrieved from S&P Global.