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SURO CAPITAL CORP. (SSSS)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • NAV rose to $9.23 per share, up from $9.18 at Q2 (or $8.93 dividend-adjusted), and $6.73 at Q3 2024; net assets were $231.8M, with liquid assets of ~$58.3M, reflecting realized gains and portfolio appreciation .
  • Net increase in net assets resulting from operations was $0.30 per basic share in Q3; management declared a $0.25 cash dividend payable Dec 5 and extended note/share repurchase programs, supporting capital returns and balance sheet optimization .
  • Portfolio momentum remains anchored in AI infrastructure: CoreWeave monetizations generated $7.2M in Q3 and another $7.0M post-quarter, while OpenAI’s restructuring and reported IPO speculation are viewed as catalysts for sustained investor interest in SuRo’s holdings .
  • Management expects additional dividends in Q4 or early Q1 2026, with repurchase programs extended (notes: up to +$40M; shares: to Oct 31, 2026), setting up near-term catalysts around monetization and distributions .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Realizations and valuation gains drove a positive $0.30 per share increase in net assets resulting from operations; unrealized appreciation contributed $0.23 and realized gains $0.21 per share in Q3 .
  • CoreWeave distributions delivered ~$7.2M in Q3 (realized gain ~$4.7M) and ~$7.0M post-quarter (realized gain ~$5.3M), with ~71.8% of the position remaining, supporting future monetization optionality .
  • “OpenAI’s recent restructuring…strengthening its ability to raise capital at scale…[positions it] to lead the next wave of AI infrastructure and innovation,” underscoring SuRo’s exposure to a category-defining asset .

What Went Wrong

  • Investment income was modest ($0.46M), and operating expenses ($3.9M) contributed to a net investment loss of $(3.45)M, or $(0.14) per share, consistent with an external management/BDC cost structure .
  • Subsequent to quarter-end, Compliable’s dissolution drove a ~$1.0M realized loss, partially offsetting positive realization momentum .
  • Year-over-year investment income declined (Q3 2025: $0.46M vs. Q3 2024: $0.89M), reflecting lower dividend/interest receipts and higher expense ratios historically vs. average net assets, though the ratio improved in Q3 .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Investment Income ($USD)$888,717 $499,094 $167,304 $459,269
Net Investment Loss per Share (Basic, $USD)$(0.14) $(0.16) $(0.16) $(0.14)
Net Increase/(Decrease) in Net Assets per Share (Basic, $USD)$(0.24) $(0.03) $2.63 $0.30
Margin/RatioQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Operating Expense Ratio (% of Avg Net Assets)10.10% 10.79% 9.73% 7.15%
Net Investment Loss Ratio (% of Avg Net Assets)(7.91)% (9.49)% (9.31)% (6.31)%
Portfolio Turnover Ratio (%)2.30% 5.28% 2.36% 2.15%

Segment/Theme Allocation (% of portfolio fair value)

ThemeQ2 2025Q3 2025
AI Infrastructure & Applications~33% ~30%
Consumer Goods & Services~16% ~20%
Software-as-a-Service~14% ~19%
Financial Technology & Services~17% ~11%
Education Technology~10% ~10%
Logistics & Supply Chain~8% ~8%
SuRo Capital Sports~2% ~2%

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
NAV per Share ($)$6.66 $9.18 $9.23
Net Assets ($USD)$156,804,155 $219,409,595 $231,787,028
Liquid Assets ($USD)—~$52,400,000 ~$58,300,000
Shares Outstanding (end of period)23,551,859 23,888,107 25,119,091
Market Value per Share (end of period, $)$4.97 $8.21 $9.00

Top 5 Positions (Q3 2025, fair value)

PositionCost ($MM)Fair Value ($MM)% of Portfolio
CW Opportunity 2 LP (CoreWeave)$12.7$37.014.7%
WHOOP, Inc.$11.0$28.811.4%
ARK Type One Deep Ventures (OpenAI)$17.7$27.711.0%
Blink Health, Inc.$15.0$21.08.3%
Learneo, Inc.$15.0$15.46.1%
Total$71.4$129.951.5%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash Dividend per ShareQ3 declared Jul 3, paid Jul 31$0.25 $0.25 (Nov 3 declaration; payable Dec 5, 2025) Maintained
Dividend OutlookQ4 2025 / Q1 2026Indicated intent for more distributions in 2H25 Management expects additional dividends in Q4 or early Q1 2026 Raised expectations (qualitative)
Note Repurchase Program (6.00% Notes due 2026)Through Oct 29, 2025Prior authorization up to $35.0M (Aug 2024) Extension approved to repurchase up to an additional $40.0M or remaining principal amount Raised
Share Repurchase ProgramTo Oct 31, 2026Ongoing, cumulative $64.3M authorized; ~$39.3M used to date Extended; ~$25.0M remains authorized Extended
Revenue/Margins/OpEx/OI&E/Tax2025None providedNone providedNo formal guidance

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
AI infrastructure core thesisQ2: CoreWeave IPO; underappreciated by public markets; Microsoft/Meta capex tailwinds; OpenAI secondary at $500B discussed Emphasis on OpenAI restructuring, potential $1T IPO; continued CoreWeave monetization; AI stack build-out Intensifying
Monetizations & distributionsQ2: $25.3M CoreWeave proceeds; $15.9M ServiceTitan exit; $0.25 dividend $7.2M CoreWeave distributions (Q3) + $7.0M post-Q3; expectation of more dividends Sustained
Portfolio construction (themes)Q2: ~33% AI infra & apps; diversified across fintech, consumer, SaaS ~30% AI infra & apps; consumer and SaaS mix; highlight HL Digital Assets/HYPE Stable/diversified
Capital programs (ATM/repurchases)Q2: ATM used ($10.6M net); share count updated ATM activity noted; extensions of note/share repurchases Supportive
Consumer/fintech assetsQ2: Plaid investment; Liquid Death follow-on WHOOP Advanced Labs expansion; Liquid Death Sparkling Energy Jan 2026 Positive momentum

Management Commentary

  • “OpenAI’s recent restructuring marks a major milestone…By simplifying its capital structure…OpenAI is extremely well positioned to lead the next wave of AI infrastructure and innovation.” — Mark Klein, CEO .
  • “Based on the size and timing of anticipated near-term future monetizations, we expect to declare and pay additional dividends in either the fourth quarter or early in the first quarter of 2026.” — Mark Klein .
  • “Segmented by seven general investment themes, the top allocation…was to artificial intelligence infrastructure and applications, representing approximately 30% of the investment portfolio at fair value.” — Allison Green, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • CoreWeave monetization: ~16.6% of CW Opportunity 2 monetized in Q3 with ~$7.2M proceeds; fair value was ~$37M at 9/30; additional ~$7.0M proceeds post-quarter; remaining stake ~71.8% .
  • WHOOP valuation/commentary: Fair value approaching $30M; secondary market activity and operating performance driving mark-ups; IPO timing uncertain .
  • AI exposure management: As OpenAI’s valuation scales, SuRo expects AI exposure to be disproportionate; continuing to deploy into AI infra, applications, overlays, with interest in cybersecurity opportunities .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 vs consensus: Primary EPS (net investment loss per share) estimated at $(0.18); actual $(0.14) — beat; Revenue estimated at $0.167M; actual $0.459M — beat .
  • Note: S&P’s “Primary EPS” appears aligned to net investment income/loss per share rather than “net increase in net assets per share,” which was $0.30 in Q3; investors should compare like-for-like when assessing “EPS” surprises .
  • Target price consensus $11.15* on 4 estimates; FY 2025 EPS consensus 2.465*; coverage limited (# of estimates for quarterly EPS/Revenue = 1), implying potential volatility in estimate dispersion.

Estimates table (S&P Global consensus vs actuals)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025FY 2025
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)(0.14)*(0.17)*(0.18)*2.465*
Primary EPS Actual ($)(0.16) (0.16) (0.14) —
Revenue Consensus Mean ($)1,229,000*499,000*167,000*1,125,670*
Revenue Actual ($)499,094 167,304 459,269 —
Target Price Consensus Mean ($)11.15*11.15*11.15*11.15*
Target Price - # of Estimates4*4*4*4*

Values with asterisks were retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term cash returns look supported by realized gains (CoreWeave) and management’s stated expectation of further dividends in Q4 or early Q1 2026; repurchase authorizations add incremental capital return capacity .
  • AI infrastructure exposure remains SuRo’s core differentiator; OpenAI restructuring and potential IPO create optionality and narrative support for NAV and stock catalysts, but sizing could make the portfolio more concentrated as valuations scale .
  • Q3 delivered positive operations-driven per-share value creation ($0.30), aided by unrealized gains and realized distributions; the improved expense ratio vs avg net assets (7.15%) highlights operating leverage on a larger asset base .
  • Investment income volatility persists quarter-to-quarter (Q3 $0.46M vs Q2 $0.17M), while realized/unrealized marks drive the majority of per-share value changes; traders should focus on monetization cadence and subsequent distributions .
  • Watch consumer/fintech assets: WHOOP product expansion (Advanced Labs) and Liquid Death’s announced Sparkling Energy launch could create future liquidity events; secondary transactions/mark-to-market can impact NAV .
  • Limited Wall Street coverage (few estimates) means consensus “beats/misses” can be noisy; use company-reported net investment loss per share as the comparable “EPS” measure to S&P’s Primary EPS .
  • Tactical implication: Monitor CoreWeave further unlocks, OpenAI valuation updates, and board actions (dividends/repurchases); these are likely the primary stock drivers into year-end and early 2026 .