Statera Biopharma, Inc. (STAB)·Q4 2020 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q4 2020 lacked a standalone press release or call; management filed an Item 2.02 8‑K with preliminary full‑year figures showing revenues of $0.25–$0.28M (−76% YoY) and a net loss of $2.3–$2.5M, driven by the wind‑down of DoD contracts and cessation of Incuron service revenue .
• The company does not expect any DoD revenues in 2021 and anticipates lower R&D spend; year‑end cash of ~$2.3M extends runway into April 2022, up from November 2021 at Q3, improving liquidity despite minimal revenue generation .
• The pending Cytocom merger (expected ownership split ~61% Cytocom/39% CBLI) reshapes the narrative; Cytocom preliminarily reported zero revenue, ~$5.2M R&D, ~$5.8M G&A, ~$0.6M cash, and a going‑concern paragraph, underscoring execution and financing risk for the combined entity .
• No Wall Street EPS/revenue consensus was available via S&P Global for Q4 2020 due to missing mapping; estimate comparisons are therefore unavailable (S&P Global data unavailable).
• Stock reaction catalysts near term are driven by merger progress, liquidity runway, and DoD program de‑obligations rather than quarterly beats/misses (no call; no numeric Q4 guidance) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• R&D expenses fell materially (FY 2020 est. $0.6–$0.8M vs. $1.7M in 2019), reflecting reduced entolimod biodefense activity and lower Curaxins spend .
• Liquidity improved year‑over‑year; YE cash/cash equivalents/short‑term investments of ~$2.3M with runway to April 2022 (vs. Q3 runway to November 2021), aided by 2020 capital raises and warrant exercises earlier in the year .
• Strategic pivot advanced: merger agreement signed with Cytocom, with the combined board and leadership (Cytocom CEO to lead), positioning for a broader immunology pipeline and corporate rebrand to Statera Biopharma .

What Went Wrong

• Revenue collapsed as DoD contracts were completed and de‑obligated (JWMRP/PRMRP funded awards cut; funded backlog fell to zero by Q3), and Incuron service revenue expired, leaving an extremely low FY revenue base .
• FY net loss remained significant (prelim. $2.3–$2.5M), with G&A rising due to financing and merger costs; Q3 quarterly net loss was $(0.758)M despite minimal revenue .
• Controls and listing risks persisted through 2020; management disclosed material weaknesses in revenue recognition controls and NASDAQ compliance monitoring (Panel Monitor through Feb 10, 2021) .

Financial Results

Revenue, EPS, Operating Expenses (Q1–Q3 and FY 2020 prelim.)

Notes: CBLI did not publish a separate Q4 2020 10‑Q or call; Item 2.02 8‑K provided full‑year preliminary ranges .

Segment/Program Revenue Mix (by quarter)

KPIs and Balance Sheet

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q4 earnings call transcript was available; themes tracked from 10‑Qs and the 8‑K.

Management Commentary

• “The Company does not anticipate any revenues from its contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense in 2021 due to the completion of the contracts and grants in 2020. Service revenue from Incuron LLC is also expected to cease…” .
• “As of December 31, 2020, the Company estimates that it has approximately $2.3 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments… expected to… allow it to fund its operating plan… into April 2022.” .
• “Immediately following the effective time of the Merger, the board of directors of the Company will consist of seven members… Cytocom’s Chief Executive Officer… will serve as Chief Executive Officer of the combined company.” .
• Cytocom prelim.: “generated no revenues… incurred approximately $5.2 million in research and development expenses… approximately $5.8 million in general and administrative expenses… as of December 31, 2020… approximately $0.6 million in cash… audit report… expressing doubt about its ability [to] continue as a going concern.” .

Q&A Highlights

No Q4 2020 earnings call transcript was available for STAB/CBLI; therefore, no analyst Q&A or call‑based guidance clarification can be provided [Search returned none for STAB; only the Item 2.02 8‑K was filed] .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus EPS/revenue estimates for Q4 2020 via S&P Global were unavailable due to missing mapping for STAB in the CIQ database (S&P Global data unavailable). As a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses versus consensus for Q4 2020.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• The income model transitioning away from government‑funded programs creates a near‑term revenue vacuum; management explicitly guides to no DoD revenue in 2021 and cessation of Incuron service revenue, elevating financing and execution focus .
• Operating discipline reduced R&D materially in 2020; expect further R&D decreases, with possible targeted spend to address FDA pre‑EUA queries—keep attention on regulatory milestones and study requirements .
• Liquidity runway extended to April 2022 despite minimal revenues; monitor cash burn versus G&A and merger‑related costs as the combined entity integrates .
• The Cytocom merger is the core strategic catalyst; ownership split (~61% Cytocom/39% CBLI) and leadership changes imply a reorientation of pipeline and priorities; Cytocom’s going‑concern disclosure underscores funding risk for the combined platform .
• Absence of Q4 disclosures/call shifts focus to FY trends and merger execution; traders should watch subsequent filings (S‑4/8‑K updates, pro formas) and listing compliance updates for near‑term sentiment drivers .
• Backlog de‑obligations and DoD close‑outs remove legacy visibility; valuation likely anchored to merger progress and future clinical catalysts rather than historical contracts .
• No consensus estimates available; set expectations around liquidity, governance transition, and regulatory path rather than quarterly beats/misses (S&P Global data unavailable).