Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered solid operating performance: total revenue rose to $199.3M and diluted EPS was $0.28, with Core FFO per diluted share at $0.61; Cash NOI increased 8.6% year over year and Same Store Cash NOI rose 4.4% .
Leasing remained strong but Q4 cash rent spreads (19.4%) were lower due to fixed-rate renewal options; excluding those, spreads would have been ~34% per management. 2025 leasing already ~70% addressed with 23.8% cash spreads, supporting internal growth visibility .
Capital allocation was active: 15 buildings acquired for $293.7M at a 6.2% cash cap, two buildings sold for $29.4M, and remaining forward equity proceeds of $167.7M were settled; liquidity ended at $623.1M, Net Debt to annualized run-rate Adjusted EBITDAre 5.2x .
2025 initial guidance targets Same Store Cash NOI growth of 3.5–4.0%, acquisitions of $350–650M (6.25–6.75% cash cap), dispositions of $100–200M, and Core FFO per share of $2.46–$2.50, with retention of 70–75% and ~25% cash leasing spreads .
Potential stock reaction catalysts: demonstrated demand reacceleration post-election, robust 2025 leasing spreads already in hand, and disciplined acquisition/disposition program in a tightening supply backdrop .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Leasing momentum and pricing power: Q4 operating portfolio leasing spreads of 19.4% cash and 34.9% straight-line; for the year, 28.3% cash and 41.8% straight-line; 2025 cash spreads at 23.8% on 70% addressed, highlighting durable internal growth .
Accretive acquisitions: 15 buildings acquired in Q4 for $293.7M at 6.2% cash/6.9% SL cap and a Chicago single-tenant portfolio with 12% below-market rents, supporting near- and long-term NOI growth .
Balance sheet and liquidity: Net Debt to annualized run-rate Adjusted EBITDAre at 5.2x and liquidity at $623.1M; repaid $50M private placement on 10/1/24; all forward equity proceeds settled, reducing equity overhang .

Quote: “We’re happy to report we’ve already leased 70% of the operating portfolio square feet we currently expect to lease in 2025, achieving cash leasing spreads of 23.8%.” — Bill Crooker .

What Went Wrong

Q4 leasing spreads moderated versus prior quarters due to fixed-rate renewal options; excluding those options, spreads would have been ~34% per management .
Same-store occupancy expected to decline by ~100 bps in 2025 per guidance, reflecting churn and timing of new/renewal leasing .
Macro uncertainty (tariffs) creates tenant decision delays; tenants increased finished goods storage ahead of tariffs but timing and product scope remain unclear, potentially affecting near-term activity patterns .

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)	$183.3	$190.7	$199.3
Net Income attributable to common stockholders ($USD Millions)	$41.7	$41.8	$50.9
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$0.23	$0.23	$0.28
Core FFO per diluted share ($USD)	$0.58	$0.60	$0.61
Cash NOI ($USD Millions)	$143.1	$148.4	$155.5
Same Store Cash NOI ($USD Millions)	$133.4	$138.2	$139.2

Q4 2024 Leasing Activity	New Leases	Renewal Leases	Total
Square Feet	279,690	2,139,340	2,419,030
Cash Rent Change	15.3%	19.9%	19.4%
Straight-Line Rent Change	21.6%	36.5%	34.9%
Retention	—	76.9%	—

KPIs	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Occupancy Rate (Total Portfolio)	97.1%	97.1%	96.5%
Occupancy Rate (Operating Portfolio)	97.5%	97.8%	97.3%
Operating Portfolio SF leased (commenced)	3.534M	3.303M	2.419M
Cash Rent Change (Total)	36.8%	24.6%	19.4%
Retention	79.9%	62.5%	76.9%
Acquisitions ($)	$225.6M	$113.0M	$293.7M
Dispositions ($)	$78.2M	$22.6M	$29.4M
Liquidity ($)	$902.9M	$810.0M	$623.1M
Net Debt to Annualized Run Rate Adjusted EBITDAre	5.0x	5.1x	5.2x

Note: Wall Street consensus via S&P Global for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at time of request due to data access limits.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Same Store Cash NOI Growth	FY 2025	N/A	3.5%–4.0%	Initiated
Retention	FY 2025	N/A	70%–75%	Initiated
Cash Leasing Spreads	FY 2025	N/A	~25%	Initiated
Budgeted New + Renewal Leasing SF	FY 2025	N/A	~14M SF	Initiated
Same Store Occupancy	FY 2025	N/A	−100 bps YoY	Initiated
Acquisition Volume	FY 2025	N/A	$350–$650M; 6.25%–6.75% cash cap	Initiated
Disposition Volume	FY 2025	N/A	$100–$200M	Initiated
G&A Expense	FY 2025	N/A	$52–$54M	Initiated
Core FFO per Share	FY 2025	N/A	$2.46–$2.50	Initiated

Dividend update (Q4 2024): Monthly dividend maintained at $0.123333 for Oct/Nov/Dec 2024 with declared record/payment dates .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Leasing spreads and demand	Cash 36.8%, SL 51.8%; 94.7% of 2024 leasing addressed	Cash 24.6%, SL 34.3%; 37.8% of 2025 leasing addressed	Cash 19.4% (lower due to fixed options); SL 34.9%; 70% of 2025 leasing addressed at 23.8% cash	Stable strong spreads; near-term mix effects
Tariffs/macro	Not highlighted in Q2 PR	Not highlighted in Q3 PR	Management sees uncertainty; tenants storing finished goods ahead of tariffs; potential onshoring impulse if tariffs persist	Elevated uncertainty, watch inventory/onshoring
Development pipeline	Not detailed in Q2 PR	Not detailed in Q3 PR	Greer, SC 474k SF lease commencing 5/1/25; new 90/10 JV in Charlotte (~400k SF, ~7% stabilized yield)	Progressing; selective starts
Private transaction market	Not discussed in Q2 PR	Pipeline indicated (33.6M SF; $4.2B)	Some pause; potential portfolios with tighter yields; expect activity to accelerate through year	Gradual recovery expected
Capital markets	$450M notes issued; Moody’s outlook to Positive; liquidity $902.9M	$93.1M forward equity; liquidity $810.0M; ND/Adj EBITDAre 5.1x	Settled $167.7M of forward proceeds; repaid $50M note; liquidity $623.1M; ND/Adj EBITDAre 5.2x	De-risking, lower liquidity post settlements

Management Commentary

“Supply pipeline continues to contract with deliveries down over 30%, and this is expected to continue in 2025… We’re seeing an increase in tenant demand since the election spanning a broad array of industries.” — Bill Crooker .
“Core FFO per share was $0.61 for the quarter and $2.40 for the year… Net debt to annualized run rate adjusted EBITDA was 5.2x at year-end with liquidity of $623 million.” — Matts Pinard .
“Leasing spreads for Q4 were a little lower… related to some fixed rate renewal options… excluding those, our leasing spreads in Q4 would have been 34%.” — Bill Crooker .
“Given the volatile capital market environment, acquisition volume guidance ranges from $350 million to $650 million, with a cash capitalization rate between 6.25% and 6.75%.” — Matts Pinard .
Press release framing: “The Company delivered another positive end to the year with increased acquisition activity and strong operating results.” — Bill Crooker .

Q&A Highlights

Leasing spreads moderation: Q4 cash spreads at 19% due to fixed-rate renewal options; ex-options ~34%; 2025 spreads expected ~24–25% with ~70% addressed, supporting forward pricing power .
Development yields and timing: Greer SC lease (~~474k SF) starts 5/1/25; JV in Charlotte (~~$56M project) targeting ~7% stabilized yield; Spartanburg lease ~5% yield on one asset, with uptick in tours .
Tariffs and tenant behavior: Management flagged uncertainty; tenants storing finished goods; onshoring/nearshoring decisions could accelerate if tariffs persist .
Private markets: Noted a near-term pause with expectation of acceleration; some portfolios may trade at tighter yields due to shorter remaining terms .
2025 leasing math and occupancy: ~14M SF budgeted new/renewal; management clarified SF includes renewals, new leasing, and speculative activity across operating and non-operating portfolios; same-store occupancy expected −100 bps .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus via S&P Global (EPS and revenue for Q4 2024) was unavailable at the time of request due to SPGI access limits. We cannot quantify beats/misses versus consensus. If estimates become available, we would anchor comparisons to S&P Global and update expected revisions trajectory accordingly.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Internal growth remains resilient: double-digit leasing spreads and near-term visibility with ~70% of 2025 leasing addressed at 23.8% cash spreads underpin Same Store Cash NOI guidance (3.5–4.0%) .
Accretive external growth continues: Q4 acquisitions at ~6.2% cash cap and pipeline suggest selective deployment into tightening supply markets; expect acquisition timing weighted to back half of 2025 .
Balance sheet discipline: forward equity fully settled; minimal 2025 maturities; ND/Adj EBITDAre 5.2x and liquidity $623.1M support opportunistic activity while maintaining flexibility .
Watch the mix effects on spreads and occupancy: Q4 spread moderation linked to fixed options; 2025 same-store occupancy expected −100 bps; the pathway to Core FFO guidance ($2.46–$2.50) relies on execution on leasing and external growth .
Macro drivers: post-election leasing activity reaccelerated; tariff uncertainty could sustain inventory build and spur onshoring, benefiting non-coastal/manufacturing markets where STAG has seen strongest rent growth .
Trading lens: near-term catalysts include incremental lease announcements (development preleasing and Spartanburg progress), acquisition prints at attractive yields, and demonstrated pricing power in renewals; risk factors include tariff-related volatility and timing of occupancy stabilization .

Citations: All figures and statements sourced from STAG’s Q4 2024 Form 8-K press release and exhibits , Q4 2024 earnings call transcript , and prior quarter press releases for Q2/Q3 2024 .

STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary