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Stagwell Inc (STGW)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 delivered broad-based growth ex-Advocacy and strong cash improvement: Net revenue rose 8% YoY to $598M (ex-Advocacy +10% to $560M), adjusted EBITDA increased 8% to $93M (16% margin in PR; 15.5% in slide deck), and adjusted EPS rose 21% YoY to $0.17 .
  • Management reiterated all FY25 targets (∼8% net revenue growth; $410–$460M adj. EBITDA; >45% FCF conversion; $0.75–$0.88 adj. EPS), citing accelerating H2 growth from new wins, digital transformation momentum, and cost actions .
  • Cash flow and leverage inflected: YTD cash from operations reached $55M vs. $(68)M) last year (+$122M), and net leverage improved to 3.18x; Q2 buybacks totaled ~9.6M shares for ~$48M at ~$4.95/share .
  • Key catalysts: ex-Advocacy momentum (+10% NR), Digital Transformation strength (tech +20%, healthcare +36%), and AI/product rollouts (The Machine, content supply chain, Marketing Cloud platform) expected to drive H2 margin and growth; advocacy mix and TMC investment remain profit headwinds near term .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • ex-Advocacy growth and margin mix: Net revenue ex-Advocacy +10% to $560M; ex-Advocacy adj. EBITDA +23% to $80M, with underlying second-quarter margin at ~18.5% excluding $18M cloud investments .
    • Digital Transformation and Marketing Cloud traction: Digital Transformation net revenue grew 12% ex-Advocacy; Marketing Cloud net revenue +28% YoY with Harris Quest up >180% (100% organic) after product enhancements .
    • New business and client concentration uplift: Net new business of $117M (LTM $451M), Top 25 client net revenue up 26% YoY to >$175M; “pipeline is robust and growing” .
    • Management quote: “We expect to achieve our full-year guidance… as growth accelerates, margins expand, leverage declines, and cash flows continue to strengthen” .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Advocacy remains a drag: Advocacy net revenue fell 14% YoY to $38M, and Advocacy adj. EBITDA declined 38% YoY to $13M; overall organic net revenue grew just 0.6% (U.S. −0.2%; U.K. −7.7%) .
    • TMC profitability headwinds: The Marketing Cloud segment posted negative margin (−7.5%) and a steep adj. EBITDA decline (−79.6% YoY) given stepped-up investments .
    • Media growth modest and subscale vs peers: Performance Media & Data net revenue +1% with adj. EBITDA down 15.9%; management leaning on technology (ID Graph, Content Supply Chain, The Machine) to improve competitiveness rather than scale .
    • Analyst concern: H2 acceleration relies on conversion of pipeline and seasonal spend; management pointed to historical H1 churn/H2 ramp and current pipeline health .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($M)$671.168 $651.740 $706.818
Net Revenue ($M)$554.392 $564.187 $598.129
Net Revenue ex-Advocacy ($M)$510 $535 $560
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$86.103 $80.582 $92.855
Adjusted EBITDA Margin % (on net revenue)15.5% 14.3% 15.5% (PR rounds to 16%)
GAAP Diluted EPS$(0.03) $(0.04) $(0.02)
Adjusted Diluted EPS$0.14 $0.12 $0.17

Note: PR cites Q2 margin at 16% vs. 15.5% in slide deck due to rounding .

Segment (Network) Net Revenue

SegmentQ2 2024 ($M)Q2 2025 ($M)
Integrated Agencies Network$321.870 $344.888
Brand Performance Network$157.108 $154.868
Communications Network$72.393 $74.342
All Other$3.021 $24.031

KPIs and Balance Sheet/Cash

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025
Net New Business ($M)$130; LTM $446 $117; LTM $451
Net Leverage Ratio3.3x 3.18x
Available Liquidity ($M)$388 (Commitment $640; Drawn $375; Cash $138) $539 (Commitment $750; Drawn $377; Cash $181)
YTD Cash from Operations ($M)N/A$54.738 vs $(67.618) prior YTD
Share Repurchases (Q2)N/A~9.6M shares for ~$48M at ~$4.95

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q1 2025)Current Guidance (Q2 2025)Change
Total Net Revenue GrowthFY 2025~8% ~8% Maintained
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$410M–$460M $410M–$460M Maintained
Free Cash Flow ConversionFY 2025>45% >45% Maintained
Adjusted EPSFY 2025$0.75–$0.88 $0.75–$0.88 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024 (Q-2)Q1 2025 (Q-1)Q2 2025 (Current)Trend
AI/Technology initiativesLaunched ContextLens; deepened Adobe collaboration on The Machine; SMC growth Rolled out ID Graph v1 (130M unique emails); AI feature launches; strong SMC growth The Machine + content supply chain rolling out; fully deploy by early 2026; ~$20M quarterly OpEx; targeted ~15% cost reduction Accelerating build and deployment
Cash flow/working capitalFY24 CFO driven comp ratio record; strong EBITDA First-ever positive Q2 CFO; +$122M YTD improvement from back-office tech, collections, vendor terms; sustainable Improving
New business/pipelineQ4 net new $102M; LTM $382M Record $130M; LTM $446M $117M; LTM $451M; pipeline “robust” Sustained >$100M/qtr momentum
Media offeringTech-led upgrade (ID Graph, Machine, content supply chain), target competitiveness vs majors; 75–80% online media mix Building scale via tech
GovernmentFirst wins; multi-year stability; aiming 10–15% of mix longer term Emerging growth vector
Regional trends (organic)4Q: US +12.3%; UK −12.6%; Other +10.2% 1Q: US +1.4%; UK −2.3%; Other +43.6% 2Q: US −0.2%; UK −7.7%; Other +10.1% Mixed; “Other” strong

Management Commentary

  • Strategic messages (prepared remarks)

    • “We expect to achieve our full-year guidance on all metrics as growth accelerates, margins expand, leverage declines, and cash flows continue to strengthen” .
    • Digital Transformation “booming” and AI a tailwind; The Machine and content supply chain to drive ~15% cost reductions when fully deployed by early 2026 .
    • ex-Advocacy EBITDA +23% YoY; excluding $18M cloud investment, Q2 margin would have been ~18.5% (300 bps YoY improvement) .
  • Important quotes

    • Mark Penn: “Our top 25 [clients]… generated over $175 million in net revenue… an increase of 26% year-on-year… We are just the right size to adapt to the coming revolution of AI” .
    • Frank Lanuto: “We delivered $93 million in adjusted EBITDA… Excluding our cloud investment of $18 million… margin would have been approximately 18.5%” .
    • Ryan Greene: “Year to date, we have already executed $20 million in annualized savings, with $7 million flowing through to adjusted EBITDA” .

Q&A Highlights

  • H2 acceleration confidence: Pattern of H1 churn/H2 ramp; organic growth running ~3 points ahead of last year; new wins ramping into back half .
  • Cash flow durability: Back-office tech stack, collections, and vendor term renegotiations underpin sustainable cash conversion; targeting >45% FCF conversion .
  • Media strategy: Focus on technological efficiency (Machine, content supply chain, ID Graph) vs. scale as key competitive lever; some global clients already spending $300–$400M .
  • Government contracts: Multi-year, larger-size awards add stability; margins “about the same” net of paperwork; pipeline in finals for 3–4 deals .
  • M&A and spin options: Integration focus in 2H; Marketing Cloud spin “a ways off” until revenue scales roughly 2x with more “hits” (e.g., Harris Quest) .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q2 2025 revenue, EPS, and EBITDA was unavailable in our feed at the time of this analysis; therefore, we cannot characterize beats/misses versus consensus.*
  • Contextual performance vs trend/guidance: ex-Advocacy net revenue +10% and underlying margin improvement excluding cloud spend support reiterated FY25 outlook; advocacy weakness and TMC investment weighed on reported organic and margins .

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix improving where it matters: ex-Advocacy +10% with ex-Advocacy EBITDA +23% and underlying margin expansion excluding cloud investments; expect benefits to accelerate as cost-savings initiatives flow through in H2 .
  • AI/product cycle is an earnings lever: The Machine and content supply chain are moving from pilot to rollout with targeted ~15% cost reductions by early 2026; watch for incremental margin in 2H25/2026 .
  • Digital Transformation momentum likely persists: Tech (+20%) and healthcare (+36%) client growth drove DT strength; Harris Quest performance validates product roadmap .
  • Cash/Leverage inflection improves flexibility: YTD CFO +$122M and net leverage at 3.18x create room for opportunistic buybacks/M&A while pursuing guidance .
  • Near-term watch items: Advocacy softness, TMC profitability (−7.5% margin) and modest Performance Media growth; proof points will be H2 conversion of the >$100M/qtr new business cadence and media tech upgrades .
  • Tactical setup: With reiterated guidance and H2 seasonal/contract ramp, execution on cost saves and large-client onboarding are key stock catalysts; updates on government contract pipeline could add a new revenue stream .

Appendix: Additional Operating Details

  • Geographic organic growth (2Q25): U.S. −0.2%, U.K. −7.7%, Other +10.1%; 1H25 organic ex-Advocacy +2.6% .
  • Segment commentary: Digital Transformation +12% ex-Advocacy; Marketing Cloud +38% ex-Advocacy; Creativity & Communications +8%; Performance Media & Data +1% with investment in tech stack .
  • Liquidity: $539M available (Revolver commitment $750M, drawn $377M; cash $181M) .
  • Capital allocation: ~9.6M shares repurchased at ~$4.95/share in Q2; $160M authorization remaining at quarter-end .

All sources: Q2 2025 8-K press release and investor deck ; Q2 2025 earnings call transcript ; Q1 2025 8-K press release & deck ; Q4 2024 8-K press release & deck ; Q2 ancillary press releases on Unreasonable Studios and The Marketing Cloud .