SI
Stagwell Inc (STGW)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 delivered broad-based growth ex-Advocacy and strong cash improvement: Net revenue rose 8% YoY to $598M (ex-Advocacy +10% to $560M), adjusted EBITDA increased 8% to $93M (16% margin in PR; 15.5% in slide deck), and adjusted EPS rose 21% YoY to $0.17 .
- Management reiterated all FY25 targets (∼8% net revenue growth; $410–$460M adj. EBITDA; >45% FCF conversion; $0.75–$0.88 adj. EPS), citing accelerating H2 growth from new wins, digital transformation momentum, and cost actions .
- Cash flow and leverage inflected: YTD cash from operations reached $55M vs. $(68)M) last year (+$122M), and net leverage improved to 3.18x; Q2 buybacks totaled ~9.6M shares for ~$48M at ~$4.95/share .
- Key catalysts: ex-Advocacy momentum (+10% NR), Digital Transformation strength (tech +20%, healthcare +36%), and AI/product rollouts (The Machine, content supply chain, Marketing Cloud platform) expected to drive H2 margin and growth; advocacy mix and TMC investment remain profit headwinds near term .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- ex-Advocacy growth and margin mix: Net revenue ex-Advocacy +10% to $560M; ex-Advocacy adj. EBITDA +23% to $80M, with underlying second-quarter margin at ~18.5% excluding $18M cloud investments .
- Digital Transformation and Marketing Cloud traction: Digital Transformation net revenue grew 12% ex-Advocacy; Marketing Cloud net revenue +28% YoY with Harris Quest up >180% (100% organic) after product enhancements .
- New business and client concentration uplift: Net new business of $117M (LTM $451M), Top 25 client net revenue up 26% YoY to >$175M; “pipeline is robust and growing” .
- Management quote: “We expect to achieve our full-year guidance… as growth accelerates, margins expand, leverage declines, and cash flows continue to strengthen” .
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What Went Wrong
- Advocacy remains a drag: Advocacy net revenue fell 14% YoY to $38M, and Advocacy adj. EBITDA declined 38% YoY to $13M; overall organic net revenue grew just 0.6% (U.S. −0.2%; U.K. −7.7%) .
- TMC profitability headwinds: The Marketing Cloud segment posted negative margin (−7.5%) and a steep adj. EBITDA decline (−79.6% YoY) given stepped-up investments .
- Media growth modest and subscale vs peers: Performance Media & Data net revenue +1% with adj. EBITDA down 15.9%; management leaning on technology (ID Graph, Content Supply Chain, The Machine) to improve competitiveness rather than scale .
- Analyst concern: H2 acceleration relies on conversion of pipeline and seasonal spend; management pointed to historical H1 churn/H2 ramp and current pipeline health .
Financial Results
Note: PR cites Q2 margin at 16% vs. 15.5% in slide deck due to rounding .
Segment (Network) Net Revenue
KPIs and Balance Sheet/Cash
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
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Strategic messages (prepared remarks)
- “We expect to achieve our full-year guidance on all metrics as growth accelerates, margins expand, leverage declines, and cash flows continue to strengthen” .
- Digital Transformation “booming” and AI a tailwind; The Machine and content supply chain to drive ~15% cost reductions when fully deployed by early 2026 .
- ex-Advocacy EBITDA +23% YoY; excluding $18M cloud investment, Q2 margin would have been ~18.5% (300 bps YoY improvement) .
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Important quotes
- Mark Penn: “Our top 25 [clients]… generated over $175 million in net revenue… an increase of 26% year-on-year… We are just the right size to adapt to the coming revolution of AI” .
- Frank Lanuto: “We delivered $93 million in adjusted EBITDA… Excluding our cloud investment of $18 million… margin would have been approximately 18.5%” .
- Ryan Greene: “Year to date, we have already executed $20 million in annualized savings, with $7 million flowing through to adjusted EBITDA” .
Q&A Highlights
- H2 acceleration confidence: Pattern of H1 churn/H2 ramp; organic growth running ~3 points ahead of last year; new wins ramping into back half .
- Cash flow durability: Back-office tech stack, collections, and vendor term renegotiations underpin sustainable cash conversion; targeting >45% FCF conversion .
- Media strategy: Focus on technological efficiency (Machine, content supply chain, ID Graph) vs. scale as key competitive lever; some global clients already spending $300–$400M .
- Government contracts: Multi-year, larger-size awards add stability; margins “about the same” net of paperwork; pipeline in finals for 3–4 deals .
- M&A and spin options: Integration focus in 2H; Marketing Cloud spin “a ways off” until revenue scales roughly 2x with more “hits” (e.g., Harris Quest) .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q2 2025 revenue, EPS, and EBITDA was unavailable in our feed at the time of this analysis; therefore, we cannot characterize beats/misses versus consensus.*
- Contextual performance vs trend/guidance: ex-Advocacy net revenue +10% and underlying margin improvement excluding cloud spend support reiterated FY25 outlook; advocacy weakness and TMC investment weighed on reported organic and margins .
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix improving where it matters: ex-Advocacy +10% with ex-Advocacy EBITDA +23% and underlying margin expansion excluding cloud investments; expect benefits to accelerate as cost-savings initiatives flow through in H2 .
- AI/product cycle is an earnings lever: The Machine and content supply chain are moving from pilot to rollout with targeted ~15% cost reductions by early 2026; watch for incremental margin in 2H25/2026 .
- Digital Transformation momentum likely persists: Tech (+20%) and healthcare (+36%) client growth drove DT strength; Harris Quest performance validates product roadmap .
- Cash/Leverage inflection improves flexibility: YTD CFO +$122M and net leverage at 3.18x create room for opportunistic buybacks/M&A while pursuing guidance .
- Near-term watch items: Advocacy softness, TMC profitability (−7.5% margin) and modest Performance Media growth; proof points will be H2 conversion of the >$100M/qtr new business cadence and media tech upgrades .
- Tactical setup: With reiterated guidance and H2 seasonal/contract ramp, execution on cost saves and large-client onboarding are key stock catalysts; updates on government contract pipeline could add a new revenue stream .
Appendix: Additional Operating Details
- Geographic organic growth (2Q25): U.S. −0.2%, U.K. −7.7%, Other +10.1%; 1H25 organic ex-Advocacy +2.6% .
- Segment commentary: Digital Transformation +12% ex-Advocacy; Marketing Cloud +38% ex-Advocacy; Creativity & Communications +8%; Performance Media & Data +1% with investment in tech stack .
- Liquidity: $539M available (Revolver commitment $750M, drawn $377M; cash $181M) .
- Capital allocation: ~9.6M shares repurchased at ~$4.95/share in Q2; $160M authorization remaining at quarter-end .
All sources: Q2 2025 8-K press release and investor deck ; Q2 2025 earnings call transcript ; Q1 2025 8-K press release & deck ; Q4 2024 8-K press release & deck ; Q2 ancillary press releases on Unreasonable Studios and The Marketing Cloud .