NI
Neuronetics, Inc. (STIM)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 revenue was $22.5M (+11% YoY), driven by $4.4M of Greenbrook clinic revenue post-close; however core U.S. system (-15% YoY) and treatment session (-14% YoY) revenues declined, and gross margin compressed 1,140 bps to 66.2% on clinic mix .
- Operating expenses increased with acquisition and one-time items; the company later revised Q4 to net loss $(12.7)M and adjusted EBITDA $(0.4)M (from prior +$0.1M), reflecting purchase accounting updates tied to the Greenbrook deal .
- 2025 guidance maintained: Q1 revenue $28–30M; FY revenue $145–155M; gross margin ~55%; OpEx $90–98M; management continues to target cash-flow positive beginning in Q3 2025, underpinning the post-merger investment case .
- Integration is on track: actions to realize >$21M of the targeted $22M annualized cost synergies are executed; growth catalysts include BMP expansion, utilization lift in clinics, and aggressive SPRAVATO buy-and-bill rollout (35 clinics now; targeting most locations by YE25) .
- Stock narrative catalysts: successful synergy capture and execution on SPRAVATO/buy-and-bill and BMP expansion supporting the FY25 guide and the Q3’25 cash-flow-positive milestone .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Closed transformative Greenbrook acquisition (Dec 9) creating a vertically integrated model; executed actions to realize >$21M of $22M targeted annualized cost synergies; added $4.4M Q4 clinic revenue .
- Management reiterated a path to mid-teens FY25 pro forma growth and cash-flow positive in Q3’25; reiterated Q1 and FY25 guidance on the call and in the press release .
- CEO message: “Neuronetics now stands as the clear leader in TMS therapy … building momentum toward … becoming cash flow positive in Q3 2025” .
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What Went Wrong
- Gross margin fell to 66.2% (vs 77.6% LY) due to clinic mix and lower treatment session revenue; U.S. system and treatment revenues declined YoY (-15% and -14%), partly due to eliminating intercompany treatment revenue post-acquisition .
- Q4 operating expenses rose to $26.4M (revised), reflecting Greenbrook-related professional fees and consolidation; net loss widened to $(12.7)M (revised) .
- Q4 adjusted EBITDA revised to $(0.4)M from initial +$0.1M after final purchase accounting updates, tempering the initial non-GAAP profitability narrative .
Financial Results
Summary by quarter (oldest → newest)
Note on shipments: press release states 46 systems shipped in Q4; supplemental slide table shows 47; we anchor to the press release and flag the discrepancy .
YoY performance (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023)
Segment/Category details
Revenue trend (sequential)
Non-GAAP
- Adjusted EBITDA Q4 2024 revised to $(0.415)M (from initial +$0.108M), reflecting acquisition accounting updates; FY 2024 adjusted EBITDA revised to $(21.79)M .
Guidance Changes
Context (prior quarter): On Nov 12, 2024, Neuronetics guided standalone Q4 2024 revenue to $19–$20M and FY 2024 to $71–$72M; the consolidated Q4 actual was $22.5M (includes Greenbrook post-close) and FY 2024 was $74.9M .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “By expanding our Better Me Provider network and acquiring Greenbrook, we’ve created an unparalleled TMS treatment platform while rapidly improving our financial position.”
- CEO: “We’re building momentum toward our dual objectives of double-digit revenue growth for the year and becoming cash flow positive in Q3 2025.”
- CFO: “Gross margin was 66.2%… primarily a result of the inclusion of the Greenbrook clinics business… Q4 EBITDA includes approximately $10.6M in nonrecurring expenses.”
- CEO: “We are nearly 40% through the SPRAVATO buy-and-bill rollout… now over 35 clinics utilizing this billing method… will offer buy-and-bill in most Greenbrook clinics by the end of 2025.”
- CFO (clinics): “GBK clinic margins… 27–28% in 2024; implied guidance for 2025 is mid-30%s, driven by closure of 35 underperforming clinics.”
Q&A Highlights
- Guidance composition: FY25 revenue split framework ~$65–$70M Neuronetics standalone and ~$80–$85M Greenbrook, predicated on BMP-driven growth and SPRAVATO expansion/buy-and-bill conversion .
- Margin levers: Consolidated GM guided to ~55% with GBK clinic margins improving to mid-30%s; continued cost-out in NeuroStar manufacturing and clinic optimization .
- SPRAVATO cash dynamics: Minimal CapEx per clinic (~$10k); working-capital need for drug inventory potentially up to ~$5M, mitigated via distributor 120-day terms and recent $18.9M equity raise .
- Utilization targets: GBK average ~4 patients/day per system; BMP sites at 6–8; plan to lift GBK to 5–6 over 2025–2026; +1 patient/day ≈ ~$10M annualized revenue opportunity .
- Footprint strategy: Hold GBK at 95 clinics (most profitable set) and focus on utilization and process standardization rather than expansion .
Estimates Context
- We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 revenue and EPS; the request could not be fulfilled due to a daily request limit. As a result, we cannot provide definitive beat/miss vs Wall Street consensus at this time (S&P Global data unavailable).
- Given management’s commentary and the reported results, potential estimate revisions for FY25 may center on: (i) pace of SPRAVATO buy-and-bill conversion, (ii) clinic utilization ramp, and (iii) synergy realization cadence .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Integration is executing: >$21M of ~$22M cost synergies already actioned; lowers OpEx base and supports FY25 cash-flow inflection goal (Q3’25) .
- Structural mix shift: Consolidation with clinics resets gross margins (~55% guide) but provides scale and recurring service revenue; clinic margin improvement (mid-30%s) is central to earnings power .
- Growth engines: BMP expansion (350+ sites, +125 in pipeline) and SPRAVATO buy-and-bill (35 clinics now; most by YE25) are the primary revenue drivers embedded in FY25 guidance .
- Q4 quality signals mixed: headline growth +11% YoY aided by clinic revenue, but core system and treatment revenues declined YoY and gross margin compressed; one-time acquisition costs weighed on non-GAAP performance (revised) .
- FY25 setup: Guidance maintained from Jan to Mar; early-2025 execution on utilization and SPRAVATO conversion will be key check-ins versus targets .
- Liquidity/working capital: $18.5M cash at YE24 plus $18.9M equity raise post-quarter strengthen flexibility to fund SPRAVATO inventory and integration initiatives .
- Watchlist for next quarter: cadence of SPRAVATO clinic adds and buy-and-bill conversions; BMP site adds; GBK utilization lift; confirmation of margin improvement and synergy capture pace .
Appendix: Additional Context
- Transaction closing PR (Dec 10, 2024) confirms combined structure and integration priorities .
- Q3 2024 PR correction (Nov 12, 2024) reiterates cash-flow breakeven targeted for Q3’25; Q3 revenue $18.5M; GM 75.6% .
- March 27, 2025 update revised Q4 and FY 2024 GAAP/adjusted metrics due to Greenbrook purchase accounting and share count; we use revised figures throughout .