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ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (STKS)·Q4 2021 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2021 delivered record revenue of $84.1M (+86.8% YoY) with consolidated restaurant margins expanding to 20.4% as strong holiday demand, menu innovation, and disciplined cost management offset commodity inflation .
- Comparable sales vs 2019 rose 49.8% overall, led by STK at +60.0% and Kona Grill at +38.2%; average weekly volumes reached $338K for STK and $108K for Kona Grill in the quarter, underscoring robust consumer appetite for “vibe dining” .
- Q4 EPS was $0.17; adjusted EPS $0.24; adjusted EBITDA was $13.3M. Management also raised Q1 2022 revenue targets and reiterated G&A, signaling continued momentum into early 2022 .
- Asset-light revenue lines re-accelerated (management/license/incentive fees $4.6M, +262% YoY), supported by reopened international units and new managed/licensed venues; pipeline remains the most robust in company history .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record quarterly and annual revenue driven by strong holiday demand and effective sales initiatives; consolidated restaurant margins reached 20.4% in Q4 (+440 bps YoY) .
- “Vibe dining” resonated: two-year comparable sales +49.8% in Q4, with STK +60.0% and Kona Grill +38.2%; AW volumes hit $338K (STK) and $108K (Kona) in Q4 .
- Asset-light revenue growth: management/license/incentive fees were $4.6M in Q4, reflecting recovery and new locations, with CEO emphasizing “the power” of growth in managed/licensed properties .
- Quote: “We believe our units deliver best-in-class returns…we foresee a total addressable market of at least 400 restaurants” .
- Quote: “Our promotions for Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's Eve drove record demand for both brands” .
What Went Wrong
- Cost of sales increased 150 bps YoY to 25.9% on commodity inflation; COVID-related direct costs rose to ~$2.0M in Q4 (vs $1.7M prior year), pressuring reported margins .
- G&A increased to $8.3M in Q4 ($7.5M adjusted), reflecting normalized support activities and higher performance-based compensation; adjusted G&A was 8.9% of revenue .
- Management maintained short-term outlook given macro uncertainty (inflation, labor, volatility), offering only Q1 guidance despite strong momentum .
Financial Results
Income Statement and Margin Summary
Segment, Comps, and KPIs
Guidance Changes
Note: Company provided only Q1 guidance due to macro uncertainty; no margin, OI&E, tax, or dividend guidance was issued .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We reported another quarter of record setting revenue, with over $84 million in total GAAP revenue…consolidated restaurant margins of 20.4%, an increase of 440 basis points from 2020…comparable sales increased almost 50% when compared to 2019” — Emanuel “Manny” Hilario, President & CEO .
- “Our promotions for Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s Eve drove record demand for both brands…average weekly volumes during the quarter to $338,000 and $108,000 for STK and Kona Grill respectively” .
- “Looking to 2022, our development pipeline is the most robust we’ve had…we plan to open at least 9 new units” .
- “We were 100% staffed throughout the quarter…retained every single general manager in the company” .
Q&A Highlights
- Momentum and Q1 guide raise: Post-Omicron recovery aided by brunch and happy hour; “we clearly see positivity right now,” but management provides only one-quarter guidance due to macro uncertainty .
- Inflation/pricing: Persistent commodity pressure mitigated via menu flexibility, multiple suppliers, substitutions, protecting entry steak value, and maintaining competitive price gaps .
- Labor pipeline: Deep bench-building at assistant and entry manager levels; growth pace will flex with macro, prioritizing brand execution over expansion speed .
- Asset-light fees: Management/license/incentive fee line recovering; strong pipeline expected to continue growing this revenue stream .
- REEF Kitchens economics: Licensed sites, 5–7% top-line royalty; auxiliary growth to test markets without street stores, minimal capital .
Estimates Context
- Attempted to retrieve Wall Street consensus (S&P Global Capital IQ) for Q4 2021 EPS and revenue; data was unavailable due to daily request limits at time of retrieval. As a result, “vs estimates” comparison is not provided for this quarter [GetEstimates error].
- Implication: Sell-side models may need upward revisions to revenue and EBITDA trajectory given Q4 outperformance and Q1 guidance raise, particularly for asset-light fee ramp and sustained AW volumes .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Demand strength is durable: Two-year comps and AW volumes surged across both brands; sales-driving levers (brunch, happy hour, events, off-premise) continue to add layers, supporting top-line resilience .
- Margin discipline amid inflation: Despite cost pressures, restaurant margins expanded; menu flexibility, mix management, and pricing discipline underpin profitability, with adjusted EBITDA stepping up in Q4 .
- Asset-light growth is a key earnings driver: Managed/licensed fees accelerated; robust 2022 openings and REEF tests offer incremental, capital-light revenue streams .
- Near-term guide positive: Q1 2022 revenue targets were raised, indicating momentum; expect continued focus on execution over long-range guidance given macro volatility .
- Labor capability is a competitive advantage: 100% staffing and strong retention enable throughput and experience quality during peak periods, supporting sustained volumes .
- Watch catalysts: Holiday/event recovery into 2022, incremental fee revenue from new venues, additional pricing/mix actions, and potential margin tailwinds as COVID-related costs normalize .
- Risk factors: Commodity/labor inflation, macro volatility (gas prices, market wealth effects), and convention/large corporate events timing could impact cadence of recovery; management remains flexible on growth pacing .
Appendix: Prior Two Quarters Reference Materials
- Q3 2021 8-K press release (record quarterly revenues; comps vs 2019; brand-level metrics; balance sheet and non-GAAP reconciliations) .
- Q3 2021 call (AW volumes, off-premise economics, labor investments, inflation management, events demand, development pipeline) .
- Q2 2021 call (record restaurant margin 22.6%, adjusted EBITDA $12.9M; comps vs 2019; delivery/brunch initiatives; development updates) .
Citations:
- Q4 2021 preliminary sales 8-K press release and Exhibit 99.1 .
- Q4 2021 earnings call transcript (financials, guidance, strategy, Q&A) .
- Q3 2021 press release & call .
- Q2 2021 call .
Estimates note: Wall Street consensus via S&P Global was unavailable at retrieval time (tool limit).