STMicroelectronics - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the STMicroelectronics' full year 2024 earnings release conference call and live webcast. I'm Sandra, the conference operator. I would like to remind you that all participants are in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and 1 on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and 0. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Jérôme Ramel, EVP, Corporate Development and Integrated External Communications. Please go ahead, sir.

Jérôme Ramel (EVP of Corporate Development and Integrated External Communications)

Thank you. Thank you, everyone, for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results call. Hosting the call today is Jean-Marc Chéry, ST President and Chief Executive Officer. Joining Jean-Marc on the call today are Lorenzo Grandi, President and CFO, and Marco Cassis, President, Analog, Power & Discrete, MEMS and Sensors Group, and Head of STMicroelectronics Strategy, System Research and Application, and Innovation Office. This live webcast and presentation materials can be accessed on the ST Investor Relations website. A replay will be available shortly after the conclusion of this call. This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause ST results to differ materially from management expectations and plans.

We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the press release that was issued with the results this morning, and also in STM's recent regulatory filing for a full description of these risk factors. Also, to ensure all participants have an opportunity to ask questions during the Q&A session, please limit yourself to one question and a brief follow-up. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Jean-Marc Chéry, ST President and CEO.

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

Thank you, Jérôme. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining ST for our Q4 and full year 2024 earnings conference call. Today, I will start with an overview of the fourth quarter and the full year 2024, including business dynamics, and I will hand over to Lorenzo for the detailed financial overview. I will then comment on the outlook and conclude before answering your questions. Starting with Q4, in a persisting challenging environment, we achieved Q4 2024 financial results pretty much in line with the midpoint of our guidance. Our Q4 net revenues decreased 22.4% year-over-year and increased 2.2% sequentially to $3.32 billion. Our gross margin was 37.7%, our operating margin was 11.1%, and net income was $341 million.

Our Q4 net revenues were in line with the midpoint of our business outlook range, driven by higher revenues in personal electronics, offset by lower revenues in industrial, while automotive and communication equipment and computer peripherals performed as expected. Q4 gross margin was broadly in line with the midpoint of our business outlook range. Looking at the full year 2024, net revenues decreased 23.2% to $13.27 billion, mainly driven by a strong decrease in industrial and to a lesser extent in automotive. Gross margin was 39.3%, down from 47.9% in full year 2023. Operating margin was 12.6% compared to 26.7% in full year 2023, and net income decreased 63% to $1.56 billion. We invested $2.53 billion in net CapEx while generating free cash flow of $288 million. Let's now discuss our business dynamics during Q4 and a recap of our 2024 business highlights.

In automotive, during the fourth quarter, we continued to face a slowdown, particularly in Europe, and our book-to-bill ratio remained below one. For 2024, we continued to execute our strategy, supporting the transition of the automotive industry to car electrification and digitalization. In electrification, we won business with our power discrete and modules, both silicon and silicon carbide, as well as smart power technologies and smart fuse solutions. With silicon carbide products, our revenue for the year was $1.1 billion. During the year, we had multiple high-value wins with both silicon carbide devices and modules for automotive customers, including a cooperation with Ampere, as well as broadly in industrial applications.

In China, which is the fastest-growing market for electric vehicles, we have a very strong momentum in terms of design-in activities, and as of today, we have more silicon carbide engagements with top Chinese car makers than any other suppliers. To this respect, in June, we announced we signed a long-term silicon carbide supply agreement with Geely Auto. We also introduced our fourth generation of silicon carbide MOSFET technology, bringing new benchmarks in power efficiency, power density, and robustness. Our automotive microcontrollers portfolio supports both electrification and digitalization. And during the year, we saw continued design win momentum across applications such as software-defined vehicle architectures and car electrification systems. Important trends here are the integration of multiple ECUs into a single more powerful unit and the zonal architecture approach.

During Q4, we announced a sampling offering for our advanced Arm-based Stellar microcontrollers, as well as a brand new series in the STM32 family designed for actuation of car body, convenience, and onboard charging applications. In ADAS, we worked closely with our longtime customer and partner Mobileye, with a focus on their latest market introduction, the EyeQ6 family. The family includes the EyeQ6L, designed for performance, power, and cost efficiency for level one and two driver assistance, as well as the EyeQ6H, which delivers premium ADAS and full surround view functionality. In industrial, during Q4, we continued to face a delayed recovery and inventory correction, particularly in Europe, and our book-to-bill ratio remained below one. Looking at our 2024 highlights in power and energy management applications, we had a broad range of design wins, including in data centers, EV charging stations, renewable energy systems, white goods, and factory automation.

We introduced a wide range of new products, solutions, and reference designs, also including high-performance silicon applications and AI server power supply. Another important growth opportunity around AI for ST, on top of our focus on edge AI. In embedded processing solutions, we further strengthened STM32 microcontroller and microprocessor families and ecosystem, introducing many new products and tools. A particular focus was on edge AI enablement for our customers. In June, the ST Edge AI Suite came online, bringing together tools, software, and knowledge to simplify and accelerate edge AI application development. In December, we made our most powerful MCU series, the STM32N6, available for broad market adoption. The series is the first to feature our proprietary Neural-ART Accelerator NPU, making it possible to run computer vision, audio processing, sound analysis, and more consumer and industrial applications at the edge on a microcontroller.

We also introduced an innovative smart sensor with edge AI processing for motion tracking in industrial and robotics applications. The combination of software and tools ecosystem continues to lower the barrier to entry for developers to take advantage of AI accelerated performance for real-time operating systems. In October, we announced a new strategic collaboration with Qualcomm Technologies for the new generation of industrial and consumer IoT solutions. Together, we are integrating Qualcomm's leading wireless connectivity technologies with our STM32 microcontroller ecosystem. We also introduced the industry's first embedded SIM meeting the GSMA standard for eSIM IoT deployment, to support the proliferation of secure cloud-connected autonomous SIMs. In personal electronics, Q4 was slightly better than expected, while in communication equipment and computer peripherals was in line with our expectations.

In personal electronics, during 2024, we continued to be successful with our focused approach through solid execution of engaged customer programs, securing sockets in flagship devices with differentiated products, and leveraging our broad portfolio to address high-volume applications. In communications equipment, our RF communication business delivered solid results. We continue to progress well with engaged customer programs in satellite and cellular communication infrastructure and received awards from a new player in the low Earth orbit satellite market. Let me now share a summary of our main 2024 manufacturing initiative. In May, we announced the construction of a new high-volume 200mm silicon carbide manufacturing facility in Catania, Italy, to manufacture power devices and modules, including testing and packaging. Along with the silicon carbide substrate manufacturing facility on the same site, these facilities will form ST Silicon Carbide Campus, a fully vertically integrated manufacturing hub for silicon carbide devices.

In sustainability, all our strategic manufacturing initiatives are aligned with our sustainability strategy and our commitment to sustainable manufacturing in terms of energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, air, and water quality. We are on track to be carbon neutral by 2027 in all direct and indirect emissions from Scope 1 and 2, and focusing on product transportation, business travel, and employee commuting emissions for Scope 3. And we are on track for our 100% renewable energy goal by 2027, as well as for other key sustainability commitments. Power purchase agreements will play a major role in our transition. Following the first ERG announcement in Q4 2023, we added two more in 2024, one in Italy with Centrica and one in Malaysia with Engie. You will also have noticed we just announced another one in France with Total for 15 years.

We also continue to work closely with external bodies to maintain our strong presence in the major sustainability indices. Let me close this section with a recap of our 2024 corporate development activities. ST has made a number of significant changes in the way our company is structured and operates during 2024. In January, we announced the reorganization of our product groups into two groups split in four reportable segments, as well as the creation of a new application marketing organization, by end market, implemented across all regions with the existing marketing organization. In May, I was pleased to be reappointed as member and chairman of the managing board for a three-year term to expire at the end of 2027 annual general meeting of shareholders, and Lorenzo was appointed as member of the managing board for the same three-year term.

In October, Lorenzo, President and CFO, added responsibilities to cover supply chain, corporate development, and integrated external communication, in addition to finance, global procurement, digital transformation, and information technology, enterprise risk management, and resilience. In October, we also announced the launch of a new company-wide program to reshape our manufacturing footprint, accelerating our wafer fab capacity to 300mm silicon in Agrate and Crolles and 200mm silicon carbide in Catania, and resizing our global cost base. This program should result in strengthening our capability to grow our revenues with an improved operating efficiency, resulting in annual cost savings in the high triple-digit million dollars range exiting 2027. Specifically, in terms of operating expenses, SG&A and R&D, the program is now going to start, and we expect annual cost savings totaling $300 million-$360 million exiting 2027 compared to the cost base of 2024.

Now, over to Lorenzo, who will present our key financial figures.

Lorenzo Grandi (President and CFO)

Thank you, Jean-Marc, and good morning, everyone. Let's start with a detailed review of the fourth quarter, starting with revenues on a year-over-year basis by reportable segment. Analog products, MEMS and sensors, were down 15.5%, mainly due to decreases in analog and imaging. Power and discrete products decreased 22.1%, with a decline in both power and discrete. Microcontrollers revenue declined 30.2%, mainly due to general purpose microcontrollers. Digital ICs and RF products declined 22.8%, mainly due to ADAS and infotainment. By market, industrial, declined by about 41%. Automotive, by about 20%. Personal electronics, by about 17%, and communication equipment and computer peripherals increased by about 2%. Year-over-year, sales decreased 19.8% to OEMs and 28.7% to distribution.

On a sequential basis, revenue increased 1.1% in analog MEMS and sensors, 7.0% in microcontrollers, and 13% in digital ICs and RF, while decreased 6.8% in power and discrete. By market, industrial grew by about 12%. Communication equipment, computer peripherals, by about 13%, and automotive, by about 1%, while personal electronics decreased by about 8%. Turning now to profitability. Gross profit in the fourth quarter was $1.25 billion, decreasing 35.7% on a year-over-year basis. Gross margin was 37.7%, decreasing 780 basis points year-over-year, mainly due to unfavorable product mix and, to a lesser extent, to sales price and higher unused capacity charges. Total net operating expenses amounted to $884 million in the fourth quarter. This was better than anticipated, reflecting a higher level of R&D grants, a stronger dollar, as well as the continued strict monitoring of our expenses in the current market environment.

Talking about the net OpEx, let me give you an indication for the first quarter of 2025. In the first quarter of 2025, we expect them to stand at about $850 million. As a reminder, these amounts are net of the other income and expenses. Coming back to the fourth quarter, as a result, the fourth quarter operating income decreased 64% to $369 million. Q4 operating margin was 11.1%, down from the 23.9% in the year-ago period, with analog MEMS and sensors at 14.7%, power and discrete at 11.9%, microcontrollers at 14.3%, and digital ICs and RF at 31%. Q4 24 net income was $341 million dollars compared to $1.08 billion dollars in the year-ago quarter. Earnings per diluted share were $0.37 compared to $1.14 one year ago. As a reminder, the fourth quarter 2023 net income included a one-time non-cash income tax benefit of $191 million.

Looking now at our full year 2024 financial performance, net revenue decreased 23.2% to $13.27 billion. By market, on a year-over-year basis, industrial revenues decreased 49%. Automotive was down 14%. Personal electronics declined 11%, and communication equipment and computer peripherals were down 2%. Automotive represented about 46% of our total 2024 revenues, personal electronics about 21%, industrial 20%, and communication equipment, computer peripherals about 13%. By customer channel, sales to OEMs and distribution represented 73% and 27%, respectively, of the total revenues in 2024. The lower share of distribution compared to 2023 reflected the inventory correction in the industrial market, which is mainly addressed through distributors. By region of customer origin, 40% of our 2024 revenues were from the Americas, 30% from Asia-Pacific, and 30% from EMEA. Looking at the sales performance by reportable segment, analog MEMS and sensors was down 13%, with all subgroups declining.

Power and discrete decreased 18.8%, with a decline in both power and discrete. Microcontroller revenues declined 38.8%, mainly due to general purpose microcontroller. Digital ICs and RF products declined 16.5%, mainly due to ADAS and infotainment. In 2024, gross margin decreased to 39.3% compared to 47.9% for 2023, mainly due to product mix and, to a lesser extent, to sales price and higher unused capacity charges. In 2024, operating margin decreased to 12.6% compared to 26.7% in 2023. By reportable segment, analog products, MEMS and sensors operating margin decreased to 14.3% from 21.7%. Power and discrete operating margin decreased to 14.7% from 26.1%. Microcontroller operating margin decreased to 14.4% from 35.6%, and digital ICs and RF operating margin decreased to 29.7% from the 35.6% of the previous year. Net income was $1.56 billion, and earnings per share was $1.66.

Net cash from operating activities decreased 50.5% in 2024, totaling $2.97 billion. Net CapEx stood at $2.53 billion in 2024, in line with our expectation, compared to $4.11 billion in 2023. Free cash flow was $288 million in 2024, compared to $1.77 billion previous year. Inventory at the end of the year 2024 was $2.79 billion, compared to $2.7 billion in 2023. Days sales of inventory at year-end was 122 days, substantially in line with our expectation, compared to 130 days at the end of Q3 2024 and 104 days at the end of the previous year. Cash dividend paid to stockholders in 2024 totaled $288 million. In addition, during 2024, ST executed share buyback totaling $359 million. ST net financial position of $3.23 billion at December 31, 2024, reflected total liquidity of $6.18 billion and total financial net debt of $2.95 billion.

Now, back to Jean-Marc, who will comment on our outlook.

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

Thank you, Lorenzo. Now, let's move to our business outlook for Q1 2025. Our business environment remains challenging as we continue to face a delayed recovery and inventory correction in industrial and a slowdown in automotive, both particularly in Europe. As a result, we ended 2024 with a book-to-bill still below parity. As we indicated during our Q3 2024 results, we were expecting our Q1 2025 revenues to quarterly decline compared to Q4 2024, to be well above our normal seasonality, partly due to a lower number of calendar days as Q1 2025. We'll have six less days than Q4 2024. We are confirming this trend. We are expecting Q1 2025 revenues at $2.51 billion, plus or minus 350 basis points at the midpoint. Our Q1 2025 net revenues will decrease by 27.6% year-over-year and 24.4% sequentially.

We expect our gross margin to be about 33.8%, plus minus 200 basis points. In terms of CapEx in 2025, we plan to invest about $2 billion-$2.3 billion in net CapEx. To conclude, 2024 turned out to be one of the worst years in many decades for the industries we serve, particularly in industrial and in automotive. It was characterized by unexpectedly weaker end demand and higher level of inventories, which significantly impacted ST. Coping with this reality, we had to postpone our $20 billion-plus revenue ambition plan to 2030 during our capital market day last November, and we set a new intermediate financial model for 2027-2028. We are already engaged and determined to execute our manufacturing reshaping and cost-saving program to restore profitability compatible with our model and investing in innovation to capture the revenues growth from the secular trends we are addressing.

Thank you, and we are now ready to answer your questions.

Operator (participant)

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question or make a comment may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered a queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. In the interest of time, please limit yourself to one question only. First question comes from François-Xavier Bouvignies from UBS. Please go ahead.

François-Xavier Bouvignies (Head of Europe Tech Hardware and Semiconductor)

Thanks a lot.

So, my question would be, I mean, given the outlook that you see in Q1 and the book-to-bill that doesn't bring a lot of confidence at this stage, especially in terms of visibility, what should we think about the rest of the year? I mean, Jean-Marc, you said at the Capital Markets Day, you were comfortable about the consensus numbers, which has -3% at the time. Following these results, how should we think about the rest of the year? And given the book-to-bill, how should we see the trend? Thank you very much.

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

Following the business dynamic of Q4, and specifically on automotive, we believe it's really too early to communicate our revenue plan for the full year 2025, considering, again, the visibility we have in industrial, but both in automotive.

Well, beyond Q1, the visibility remains extremely low, except for the main engaged customer program in which we should grow beyond seasonality in H2 versus H1, driven by content increase. Normal seasonality between Q2 and Q1 is, generally speaking, flattish revenues. And at this stage, we do not see any specific reason why it should be much different than the positive calendar effect means plus 3% Q2 versus Q1. However, we think it's fair to expect Q1 at the low point of 2025. Thank you, François-Xavier Bouvignies.

François-Xavier Bouvignies (Head of Europe Tech Hardware and Semiconductor)

Thank you very much.

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

Do you have any follow-up?

François-Xavier Bouvignies (Head of Europe Tech Hardware and Semiconductor)

Yes. It's been weakening, and the channel has been fairly high. How do you see the level? I mean, do you see any evidence of strong distocking?

If you can maybe disclose in the channels where you are versus the normal, or if you see any light in the destocking part this quarter in Q1 and, of course, Q4 as well. Thank you.

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

I'll pass the question to Lorenzo.

Lorenzo Grandi (President and CFO)

In terms of inventory in distribution in the quarter, we have not seen significant destocking, let's say, still a situation. I would say there is some excess of inventory. This excess of inventory stays in the range of one or two months, let's say, depending on the product, higher in respect of what we consider a normal situation in distribution. So, at the end, still we see excess inventory in distribution. Well, the only positive point is that our distributor POS, so their wholesales, increased slightly versus Q3. By geography, it has been driven by improvement in Asia, while Europe and Americas did not improve.

But, however, according to the input and the visibility we have, the POS will decrease in Q1 versus Q4. So, that's the reason why inventory correction is still in front of us.

François-Xavier Bouvignies (Head of Europe Tech Hardware and Semiconductor)

Thanks.

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

Thank you, François-Xavier. Sandra, next question, please.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Andrew Gardiner from Citi. Please go ahead.

Andrew Gardiner (Head of European Technology Equity Research)

Good morning, gentlemen. Thanks for taking the question.

Jean-Marc, given what you have just described in terms of, I suppose, both the lack of visibility, but also your current expectation of a, let's say, steady Q2, how are you planning for fab loadings, sort of the underutilization charges, and then also if you've got any steer on the net OpEx as we move beyond first quarter, starting the year at 850, effectively implying zero adjusted operating profit, it'd be helpful to understand what your plans are for the next couple of quarters in terms of the net OpEx as well. Thank you.

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

Well, Lorenzo, we'll take the question. What I can, let's say, also share with you immediately is that in Q1, we have already taken significant closures of production days across our fabs and assembly and test plants. Well, then after the number related to underutilization charges and OpEx, Lorenzo will comment.

Lorenzo Grandi (President and CFO)

The loading, let's say, this quarter, the impact of the unloading charges is above 500 basis points, so it's quite heavy. We have a plan also for temporary closing of many of our fabs during this quarter. Our expectation is that in Q2, we will continue, let's say, to have a significant amount in terms of unloading, maybe slightly improving in respect to the first quarter, but still impacting significantly our gross margin. But in terms of OpEx, in terms of OpEx, as we said, in this quarter, we do expect to have a net OpEx around $850 million. Then you know that we have started now our program in terms of resizing our OpEx. We think that in 2025, we will start to see some first benefit of our cost-saving program on OpEx.

Overall, the saving program, we said, it should be over the horizon of the three years, $300 million-$360 million compared to the cost base of 2024. We think we estimate that for 2025, we will have, compared to the base cost of 2024, something in the range between $100 million-$120 million impact reduction on our expenses. On the other hand, you have not to forget that there will be the impact of the inflation, means salary increase, these kinds of things. Overall, we expect that net OpEx should decrease, low single digit in 2025 compared to 2024, despite the fact that we have lower R&D grants in the expected lower R&D grants in 2025 compared to 2024.

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

Do you have any follow-up?

Andrew Gardiner (Head of European Technology Equity Research)

Thank you very much. Just a slightly separate one. It was just interesting, Jean-Marc, on the comment you made regarding the visibility.

I mean, on the industrial side, I think that's pretty clear given the weakness you saw in the fourth quarter and what you're saying in terms of the channel. But in full Q, automotive was, let's say, okay, or in line with your expectations. But you're also pointing out that the visibility there, looking into this year, is particularly weak. What has perhaps changed for the worse, or is it just the customers are so uncertain, they're not giving you visibility on a normal lead time? Just a bit of color around what's happening in automotive would be helpful.

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

Normally, we are coming to the old way of working between car maker and tier one. So it means order pulling upcoming within two, three weeks visibility. So this is point number one.

It is also clear that taking into account the current situation of the overall automotive industry between a big change on the turbo combustion engine, high-end, okay, middle-end, big change on electric vehicles, battery-based versus hybrid one. In Q1, okay, we see a phenomenon of inventory adjustment. That's the reason why we anticipated and we share with the market that Q1 will be significantly below the seasonality that, generally speaking, are only due to personal electronics and China and Asia, okay, because of Chinese New Year. But this year amplified by inventory correction at automotive. After Q1, okay, we know that some tier one have already adjusted their delivery forecast, but again, which is only a forecast, but the visibility of the pulling from the consignment inventory are very short term. So we are not protected against some fluctuation on this pulling.

That's the reason why, okay, we came back on this situation. Understood.

Andrew Gardiner (Head of European Technology Equity Research)

Thanks, Jean-Marc.

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

Thank you, Andrew. Sandra, next question, please.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Didier Scemama from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Didier Scemama (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Jean-Marc, if you could give us an update also on the manufacturing footprint. Obviously, the company is structured for a substantially higher level of revenue. And obviously, you communicated your OpEx cuts over the next three years. Can you help us understand a little bit the rest of the OpEx or COGS, I should say, reduction and where the manufacturing footprint will be reduced? And that would be helpful. Thank you.

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

So, Lorenzo, will comment on it.

Lorenzo Grandi (President and CFO)

Yeah, maybe I take this question.

As you remember, at our Capital Market Day, we were indicating that we wanted to accelerate our transformation of the manufacturing footprint, accelerating our 300 millimeters. So moving from 200 millimeter for silicon to 300 millimeter and for silicon carbide from the 150 millimeter to the 200 millimeter. So this plan, of course, cannot yield a significant benefit already this year because definitely we need to move our production from the existing 200 millimeter fab to the 300 millimeter fab. As we said, overall, the program is yielding, including expenses, high triple-digit, let's say, savings. What we have given to you, let's say, the sizing over the next three years, let's say, in terms of expenses. And as you have seen, substantially, we think that this will come in our P&L quite evenly in the next three years.

For what concerns the COGS, it will be mainly we will start to impact 2026, but the significant impact will be in 2027, so the program is a program that will yield some benefit in 2026, and this is mainly, let's say, thanks to the accelerated move of the silicon carbide from 150 to 200 millimeter, and we'll yield the most of our saving in 2027.

Didier Scemama (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Okay, thank you. For my follow-up, I just wondered if you could give us an update on where you are in terms of general-purpose microcontroller market share. I think, Jean-Marc, you mentioned last quarter, if I remember correctly, that about a quarter of the revenue contraction came from market share loss in China, I think in consumer. Do you have any sort of fresh thoughts on this?

I guess the question from here on is the magnitude of the decline is such that people are starting to wonder whether it's much more than a cyclical downturn and how much market share you've actually lost in China and elsewhere. Just give us a sense of your comfort level that this is cyclical and not structural.

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

No, we confirm basically the relative weight of the root cause of the revenue decline in 2024 versus 2023. Inventory correction, okay, 60%. Okay, lower market, okay, 30%. Market share loss, clearly mainly in mainstream microcontroller in Asia, in China, with the competition and mainly on 8-bit. There is no reason, okay, that this has changed. By the way, we believe, really, we will wait the last picture, but we believe that in Q4, we have restarted to win market share.

This is our view and what we are convinced about, then I repeat, okay, in order to comfort ourselves about this statement, the recipe, okay, to control and to continue to grow on this market remains the same, so the most comprehensive hardware and software stack, ST has the most comprehensive hardware and software stack in the industry. We have the most advanced ecosystem. We have basically more than 1.2 million developers around our ecosystem, well, you know that our technology roadmap, we have one of the 14 nanometer, the enabling, okay, from higher performance to ultra-low power microcontroller. We are introducing 18 nanometer FD-SOI will be really competitive versus all the advanced offer from a foundry or integrated people, then we have the manufacturing capacity, 300 mm fab, well, and then, okay, we are completing our microcontroller with hardware accelerator, so the offer on AI, the offer on connectivity.

We saw on our ecosystem that continuously the developers are scrutinizing our portfolio. So now I confirm, yes, the competition is tough and challenging in China, in Asia, with, let's say, a new player. I would like to repeat that here in China to compete, we are developing a China for China strategy. It is an exhaustive strategy. It is not only about manufacturing. There is a leg of manufacturing, but there is a leg of product development and product support. And there is a leg of business development and business support. So we are adapting ourselves completely to the ecosystem of microcontroller in China in order to keep going our market share. But yes, I confirm we lost 10% because during the shortage period, we have sacrificed the 8-bit microcontroller and the low-end 32-bit of the mainstream.

We do believe that partially we will recover moving forward, offering, okay, microcontroller, which are super competitive and with embedded features.

Didier Scemama (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Thank you. Very helpful.

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

Thank you, Didier. Sandra, next question.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Janardan Menon from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Janardan Menon (Managing Director)

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I was just trying to get a feel for the gross margin possible progression through this year. Lorenzo, you were saying that you won't get much of the effect on the COGS reduction in 2025. And you have a 500 basis point underutilization charge, which is hitting you right now in Q1. So assuming that the underutilization gradually improves through the course of the year, are we in a situation where even by Q4, you may be 100, 200 basis points below the 40% level because there's no other factor there?

Or is there any other factor which could come into play in the second half of the year in terms of product mix or cost reduction or anything like that, which could improve your gross margin as you get to the end of the year?

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

Thank you for your question. Clearly, let's say, at this stage, it's a little bit difficult, let's say, to give an indication for the gross margin. And this is also related to the fact that at this stage, our visibility on the evolution of the revenues is not yet there. But regarding the unused capacity charge, for sure, we will have a significant level of unloading in H1. But we think it should improve in H2, benefiting from the additional content in personal electronics.

That this is supporting FEPS loading, especially, let's say, FEPS loading on our 300 millimeters that are the one that are impacting both unloading charges, as you can imagine. Clearly, the level of unloading, it will also depend on the magnitude of the recovery in industry. This is another important factor. Then you have to consider that when we look, let's say, the year, we will have some tailwinds helping. Definitely, one is the price dynamic in COGS. We have a positive impact due to the cost of energy, lower cost for our foundry. There is stronger U.S. dollar that will gradually materialize during, let's say, the year. You know that we have not the full benefit due to our hedging policy, but assuming that the dollar will stay at this level, we will see positive impact materializing during the year. But then it will be also the mix.

The mix has been one of the main detractors in 2024. Clearly, depending on the recovery in the industrial, the mix will play a positive impact over the gross margin moving forward, but then we have some headwinds. One of these is the capacity reservation fees. If you remember, the capacity reservation fees will decline this year. This year will be declining by more than $200 million compared to 2024, and then we will expect price erosion. Price erosion is expected in the range of mid- to single-digit. I would say these are the dynamics. To quantify at this stage is a little bit complex to say. [crosstalk] If you want, I can add that we think anyway that Q1 for gross margin will be the bottom. It's fair to say that we expect that Q1 will be the bottom.

So we will see progressively recovery in terms of gross margin.

Janardan Menon (Managing Director)

And just on the last two points, the capacity reservation fee and the price erosion. The capacity reservation fee, is that a linear, steady effect through the four quarters, or is there some kind of a linearity where it improves or reduces into the second half of the year? And can you give us the same issue on price pressure? Is price pressure higher now? Is there any expectation that it could reduce in the second half if demand recovers or something like that?

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

In terms of capacity reservation fees, they are substantially linear over the various quarters. You may have plus or minus, but not significant changes in the quarter. In terms of pricing, yes, Q1 is impacted on a sequential basis, mainly for the renegotiation of the contract in automotive.

So it will be a step down that is not repeatable over the other quarters. So at the end, let's say, in the year, we will see price down. We expect in the mid to single digit, which a significant portion has been already, let's say, factored in already in Q1.

Janardan Menon (Managing Director)

And can you just remind last one, can you just remind us on your sensitivity on currency? What is your current? Do you have a formula to update us on?

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

In terms of effects, roughly, we can say that it is impacting in the range of $10 million-$12 million operating income per quarter for any 1% change in the euro dollars impact. This is more or less the impact. Then you may change a little bit because there is a portion of the revenues that are in euro. There is no hedging.

But if you want roughly, this is the rule that you may consider.

Thank you very much.

Thank you, Jonathan. Sandra, we have time for the last question. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The last question comes from Stéphane Houri from Oddo BHF. Please go ahead.

Stéphane Houri (Head of Equity Research)

Thank you very much. Actually, I have a question on automotive and on the silicon carbide scenario. You made a few comments about the fact that you had some wins, notably in China. So I'd like to understand if you think you can grow this year in silicon carbide and what would be the mix between new customers and the main customers that have been using your product. Thank you.

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

Overall, I will not comment full year 2025 on silicon carbide. Similarly, okay, we don't want to comment the full year with the visibility we have.

Specifically on silicon carbide, I will let Marco to comment a few points. Really, on silicon carbide, what is crucial for ST is the following. First of all, okay, we want to convert as fast as possible our manufacturing in 8-inch. This is what we have engaged in Catania. And I repeat, okay, by H2 2025, we will start the production in 8-inch in Catania and partially integrated with the raw material. And this to address, okay, mainly the Western market. In China, okay, I would like to insist that we will start in H1 2026, Sanan, directly in 200 millimeter. And we will be fully integrated in China, okay, with our chains and fab. And similarly to the microcontroller, we will be, let's say, a China for China strategy for manufacturing, for product development and support, and for business development and support.

2025 will be a transition year, but again, it's too early to speak, and we expect, okay, then to accelerate the growth in 2026, 2027, and moving forward, but on more detail, okay, Marco can make some complementary information.

Marco Cassis (President of Analog, Power and Discrete, MEMS and Sensors Group, and Head of STMicroelectronics Strategy, System Research and Application, and Innovation Office)

Yes, thank you, Jean-Marc. As we presented during the Capital Market Day, the positioning that we have in this moment in terms of sockets where we are in with the Chinese makers is surely strong. I think we are relative to peers. We are in the strong positions in terms of sockets. How these will develop during 2025 in terms of top line, considering an overall, as you know, slowdown in terms of battery electric vehicles is too early to say. What I can say is that our growth and our ambitions in the long term to retain the 30% market share is there.

This will be driven by four elements that are innovation because our technology roadmap is extremely strong. We just introduced our generation four, and we are continuing to work to implement further generations. Our manufacturing footprint, Sanan, China, and Catania is helping us to position ourselves strongly to serve both, let's say, the Asian, the Chinese market, and the Western world. We expect that beyond this transition period during 2025 to see a recovery and acceleration of the EV. We will, of course, push not only for the automotive market, but in terms of silicon carbide, we want to enlarge also our positioning in terms of industrial and AI data centers. I repeat again, the position in terms of sockets where we are present in the Chinese market, which is at this stage, let's call it the healthiest, is relatively to our piece, extremely strong.

Jean-Marc Chéry (President and CEO)

Thank you, Stéphane. Unfortunately, we don't have time for follow-up questions. So thank you, everyone. I think this is ending our call for this quarter. Thank you for attending, and we are at your disposal should you need any follow-up question. Sorry for the one that didn't have time to ask a question. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

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