SI
STERLING INFRASTRUCTURE, INC. (STRL)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered strong profitability and cash generation: adjusted EPS $1.63 and adjusted EBITDA $80.3M, with gross margin expanding to 22.0%; revenue was $430.9M, up 7% YoY on an RHB-excluded basis, though down 2% on GAAP due to the RHB deconsolidation .
- Key beats/misses vs S&P Global consensus: revenue and EPS beat; EBITDA was modestly below consensus. EPS $1.63 vs $1.45*, revenue $430.9M vs $409.1M*, EBITDA $72.1M vs $75.4M*; management cited mix shift to higher-margin E‑Infrastructure and one-time G&A separation costs partly impacting EBITDA . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Guidance raised across the board: FY25 revenue $2.05–$2.15B (prior $2.00–$2.15B), diluted EPS $7.15–$7.65 (prior $6.75–$7.25), adjusted EPS $8.40–$8.90 (prior $7.90–$8.40), adjusted EBITDA $410–$432M (prior $395–$420M) .
- Catalysts: E‑Infrastructure backlog strength (over $1.2B, ~65% data centers), book‑to‑burn >2x in Q1, robust operating cash flow ($84.9M) and net cash of ~$329M alongside share repurchases ($44M) support capital deployment and M&A into electrical/mechanical capabilities .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- E‑Infrastructure performance: revenues +18% and adjusted operating income +61%; adjusted operating margin expanded ~618 bps to 23.2%, driven by large mission‑critical projects (data centers/manufacturing); data centers now >65% of E‑Infrastructure backlog. “The data center market remains very active” .
- Transportation margins: revenue +9% and adjusted operating income +60%, with mix shift toward higher‑margin offerings (alternative delivery, aviation, rail) driving improvement; “as we continue to shift our mix towards higher‑margin end products... we'll continue to see margin increases” .
- Cash and backlog quality: operating cash flow $84.9M; backlog $2.13B with 17.7% margin; book‑to‑burn 2.23x (backlog) and 2.13x (combined); net cash ~$328.6M; share repurchases $43.8M .
What Went Wrong
- Building Solutions softness: revenue −14% and adjusted operating income −18% on residential affordability headwinds and unusually severe weather (Dallas down ~14 days in Jan and ~16–18 in Feb), with management expecting a slower first half .
- GAAP revenue optics: headline GAAP revenue declined YoY (−$9.4M) due to the deconsolidation of RHB JV; management provided pro forma comparatives excluding RHB to reflect underlying growth (+7%) .
- EBITDA below consensus: EBITDA of $72.1M was modestly under S&P Global consensus $75.4M*, with management noting ~$1.6M one‑time separation expenses in G&A and higher performance‑based compensation as growth investments . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Financial Results
Consolidated trend (oldest → newest)
Estimates vs Actuals
Segment breakdown (Q1 2025)
KPIs and Balance/Liquidity (Q1)
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We grew our first quarter adjusted net income by 28% to deliver adjusted diluted EPS of $1.63... Gross profit margins... of 22% remained extremely strong as we have shifted the business toward higher‑margin service offerings” — CEO Joe Cutillo .
- “Backlog reached over $1.2 billion and grew 27%... operating cash flow... was again excellent at $85 million, driving our net cash position to $329 million, and supporting share repurchases of $44 million” — CEO Joe Cutillo .
- “Our first quarter backlog totaled $2.128 billion... backlog gross margin was 17.7%... book‑to‑burn ratios were 2.23x for backlog and 2.13x for combined backlog” — CFO Ron Ballschmiede .
- “Transportation margin improvement is around mix shift... alternative delivery... aviation... rail... we should start seeing more impact from low bid exit later this year” — CEO Joe Cutillo .
Q&A Highlights
- E‑Infrastructure backlog composition: management affirmed strong non‑data center visibility (manufacturing steady; e‑commerce/warehousing picking up), with data centers at >65% of segment backlog .
- Tariff/macro exposure: limited direct impact due to domestic content requirements, indexation mechanisms, and fuel pass‑throughs; proactive material sourcing reduces exposure windows .
- Transportation margins: improvement driven mainly by mix into higher‑margin offerings; low‑bid exit benefits to accrue more in late ’25/early ’26 .
- Capacity and M&A: ability to scale 25–30% to meet demand; targeting electrical/mechanical capabilities and Texas geographic expansion to deepen scope, including stand‑alone offerings .
- IIJA “Part 2”: bipartisan work underway; expectation for a “bigger, more beautiful” next infrastructure bill with potential new funding mechanisms; supportive backdrop beyond current cycle .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 beat on EPS and revenue; slight EBITDA miss: EPS $1.63 vs $1.45*, revenue $430.9M vs $409.1M*, EBITDA $72.1M vs $75.4M*; management pointed to mix‑driven margin expansion and ~$1.6M one‑time separation costs as G&A drivers . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Sequentially, Q2 2025 exceeded consensus across revenue and EBITDA, and reported adjusted EPS of $2.69 vs consensus $2.25*, reflecting continued E‑Infrastructure margin expansion . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- FY 2025 consensus as of Q1 included EPS 10.26*, revenue $2.381B*, and EBITDA $488.5M*, all above company’s raised guidance midpoints, implying potential street recalibration post Q1 and Q2 prints. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix shift to mission‑critical E‑Infrastructure (data centers/manufacturing) is structurally expanding margins; expect mid‑20% segment margins and sustained backlog growth to underpin EPS outperformance .
- Transportation is a margin story in 2025: alternative delivery/aviation/rail mix offsets Texas low‑bid exit; margin gains should continue even with modest top‑line growth .
- Near‑term residential softness is offset by acquisition (Drake) and targeted capacity additions; multi‑year demand in DFW/Houston/Phoenix remains intact .
- Raised FY25 guidance and >2x book‑to‑burn point to high conversion and earnings visibility; strong cash generation and net cash balance support accretive M&A (electrical/mechanical) and opportunistic buybacks .
- Estimate dynamics: with Q1 beats and Q2 outperformance, consensus likely revises upward for EPS and EBITDA; monitor street adjustments and potential multiple expansion tied to AI/data center narratives .
- Policy backdrop: low sensitivity to tariffs and positive IIJA successor bill prospects provide supportive multi‑year infrastructure funding environment .
- Watch list: execution on CEC acquisition (scope expansion), sustained E‑Infrastructure award pace, and residential order trends into 2H25 (weather/affordability normalization) .
Additional Q1 2025 Press Releases of Note
- Extension and expansion of credit facility (June 9, 2025), bolstering liquidity for strategic uses (acquisitions/capex) .
- CFO appointment (March 14, 2025), strengthening leadership bench .
- 2025 Sustainability Report published (March 20, 2025) .