Stevanato Group - Q4 2022
March 2, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining Stevanato Group's Q3 and fiscal year 2022 financial results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and 0 on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Lisa Miles, Senior Vice President and Investor Relations of Stevanato. Please go ahead, madam.
Lisa Miles (Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer)
Good morning, and thank you for joining us. With me today is Franco Stevanato, Executive Chairman, Franco Moro, Chief Executive Officer, and Marco Dal Lago, Chief Financial Officer. A presentation illustrating today's results can be found on the IR section of our website. Some statements being made today will be forward-looking in nature. Such statements are only predictions. Actual events and results may differ materially as a result of risks we face, including those discussed in Item 3D, entitled Risk Factors, in the company's most recent annual report filed on Form 20-F with the SEC.
We encourage you to review the information contained in our earnings release in conjunction with our SEC filings and our latest Form 20-F. The company does not assume any obligation to revise or update these forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as required by law. Today's presentation may contain non-GAAP financial information.
Management uses this information in its internal analyses of results and believes this information may be informative to investors in gauging the quality of our financial performance, identifying trends in our results, and providing meaningful period-to-period comparisons. For a reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures, please see the company's most recent earnings press release. With that, I'll hand the call over to Franco Stevanato for opening remarks.
Franco Stevanato (Executive Chairman and CEO)
Thank you for joining us as we close out another year of strong financial results. The collective effort of our employees worldwide led to outstanding execution in 2022. We are building a track record of consistent delivery on our financial and operational objectives. We are well positioned against a backdrop of favorable demand, and the fundamentals of our business remains strong. As we enter 2023, we expect to benefit from the secular tailwind in high growth end markets such as biologics.
We currently see important opportunities in front of us to support customers across a broad range of therapeutic areas such as GLP-1, monoclonal antibody, and mRNA applications. We currently see trends towards sustained reduced demand for high-performance drug containment, and we have modified our investment plan to maximize this opportunity. Notably, these opportunities are enabling us to exploit our unique value proposition of end-to-end integrated capabilities.
We are gaining more traction in supporting customer need in multiple product category across both segment. Lastly, our management team and board of director are fully aligned on capitalizing on future growth prospect. We are laser-focused on fulfilling the need of our customer and cementing our leadership position as a key partner in the pharmaceutical supply chain worldwide. We are investing in the business, our people, our product, our community, and scientific innovation, which we believe, in turn, should deliver durable organic growth to drive long-term shareholder value. I will now hand the call over to Franco.
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
Thank you, Franco. Starting on slide 7, our Q4 results led to a strong finish in 2022, with double-digit growth, expanding margins, and a growing mix of high-value solutions. We finished the year with record revenue from high-value solutions, which represented approximately 30% of the revenue for fiscal 2022. For the Q4, new order intake totaled EUR 237 million, and we ended 2022 with backlog increasing 9% to EUR 957 million. As expected, growth in backlog was partially offset by a lower level of orders to support COVID-19. Excluding COVID, our backlog increased 21% compared with last year, reflecting favorable demand for new customer programs. On slide 8, our first rate execution in 2022 enabled meaningful progress against our four strategic pillars.
First, we advanced the build-out of our industrial footprint to add capacity in premium products to meet demand and drive growth. We also signed an agreement with BARDA to further expand prior capacity in Fishers. Second, we continued to grow our mix of high-value solutions in 2022. The shift to high performance, high-value products has been led by pharmaceutical innovation. New classes of treatments require specialized drug containment to ensure the highest integrity of the treatment, and we remain ideally positioned to capitalize on this trend.
Third, we continue to fuel innovation by investing in R&D and partnering with best-in-class players to fortify our market and leading position. In 2022, we launched our next generation EZ-fill Smart platform and advanced our portfolio of drug delivery systems. Most recently, we entered into a partnership with Transcoject to expand our portfolio with the COC and COP syringes.
This allows us to offer the broadest available suite of market-leading glass and plastic syringes. Lastly, we continue to build a pipeline of multi-year opportunities in high-growth end markets like biologics. As we further advance these strategic imperatives in 2023, we expect that our efforts will yield sustainable organic growth in the years to come. On page 9, we have refined our capital spending plan to optimize our global footprint and meet the rising demand. In the U.S. and Europe, future demand has outpaced our expectation since our IPO. Our modular approach gives us the flexibility to adjust our plans accordingly. Over the last 18 months, we have worked alongside customers to better address their needs. With this end of visibility, we are accelerating investments in Fisher to capitalize on the elevated demand outlook led by expected growth in biologics.
Concurrently, we are tapping the brakes on the phasing of our China expansion so that we can prioritize projects in the U.S. and Italy. Our assigned CapEx plan for Fisher focuses investment in the U.S. market, where demand has been climbing for high-performance drug containment to meet the needs of sensitive drug classes such as GLP-1, monoclonal antibodies, and mRNA applications. We have updated our industrial plan to adapt to these favorable market trends. First, we continue to see surge in demand for syringes. To capitalize on this, we are adding approximately 60% more syringe capacity in Fisher compared with our initial plan. This includes Alba syringes, which are purpose-built for biologics. Turning to vials, we expect to double the capacity in the U.S. for ready-to-use vials as we prepare the commercial launch of our next generation EZ-fill Smart platform.
Let me crosswalk the changes to our expected CapEx for Fisher, starting with our initial planned investment. At the time of the IPO, we assumed CapEx for Fisher of approximately EUR 150 million. In March of 2022, we entered into an agreement with BARDA to expand vial capacity for both EZ-fill and bulk vials. This is estimated at approximately EUR 175 million. Most recently, we decided to invest an additional EUR 175 million to further expand much needed capacity for Nexa and Alba syringes. When you add it all up, the total CapEx for Fisher is approximately EUR 500 million. This includes the portion of CapEx that is supported by BARDA.
We remain on track to launch validation activities in Fisher in the Q4 of 2023, and we expect that the revenue will begin to ramp in a meaningful way in 2024. Moving to slide 10. In Piombino, the new business is complete. Validation activities are well underway, and we started our commercial batch production. In Latina, we completed the largest site of the CapEx. The site is on track for validation activities over the summer, with commercial production beginning in the fall.
We anticipate temporary inefficiency through the natural progression of startup activities as volumes and revenue grow over time. With the favorable demand in the U.S. and Europe, we are slowing down our expansion in China. China is strategically important. Our existing operations are currently sufficient. We are prioritizing our CapEx projects in the U.S. and Europe, where our customers have the most pressing needs, and we can provide the greatest value. With that, I now hand the call over to Marco.
Marco Dal Lago (CFO)
Thanks, Franco. On slide 12, we ended 2022 with strong financial results. For the Q4, revenue increased 26% to EUR 292.1 million, or 23% on a constant currency basis. Driven by growth in both segments, the shift to high-value solutions and currency. Our top line results for the Q4 were better than expected due to the recognition of revenue that was previously forecasted in Q1, 2023. This includes revenue from certain engineering projects and COVID-19. As a result, revenue from COVID-19 was higher than our forecast and represented 12% of total revenue. We are making relevant progress growing our mix of high-value solutions, which increased 31% to EUR 87.2 million for the Q4.
For the Q4, gross profit margin increased by 290 basis points to 34.3% due to higher revenue, a favorable mix, a better leverage of fixed cost, and the recovery of inflationary costs. Operating profit margin in the quarter increased to 21.6% and included the benefit of EUR 3 million in other income related to a joint development project. Excluding start-up costs on the new plant, adjusted operating profit margin was 22.2%, compared with 18.8% in the same period last year. On the bottom line, this resulted in a better than expected net profit of EUR 48.3 million or EUR 0.18 of diluted earnings per share.
Adjusted net profit of EUR 49.6 million or adjusted diluted EPS of $0.19, and adjusted EBITDA totaling EUR 81.9 million, reflecting an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28%, which was up 270 basis points over last year. Turning to slide 13. On a full year basis, revenue increased 17% to EUR 983.7 million, driven by growth in both segments, the mix shift to high-value solutions, and currency. On a cost and currency basis, revenue grew 13% over last year. As expected, full year revenue growth was partially offset by lower revenue from COVID-19, which represented 11% of total revenue in 2022, compared to 15% in 2021. As revenue from COVID-19 rolls off, we have been successfully backfilling the decrease with new projects across the broad range of therapeutic areas.
For 2022, High-Value Solution grew 41% to a record of $293.2 million and represented approximately 30% of revenue. Our solid growth, favorable mix shift, and operational efficiencies led to expanding margins for the full year. As a result, gross profit margin for 2022 increased 110 basis points to 32.5% despite inflation. While we recovered nearly all of the inflationary costs through price adjustments, it had a dilutive effect to gross profit margin in 2022. For the full year, operating profit margin for fiscal 2022 was up 40 basis points to 19.6%. Excluding start-up costs on the new plant, adjusted operating profit margin increased to 20.2% compared to 19.2% last year.
This led to solid delivery on the bottom line with net profit of EUR 143 million or diluted earnings per share of EUR 0.54 for 2022. On an adjusted basis, diluted EPS increased 17% to EUR 0.56. For 2022, adjusted EBITDA increased 21% to EUR 263.6 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.8%. Let's move to segment results on slide 14. The Biopharmaceutical and Diagnostic Solutions segment once again delivered strong results for the Q4 and full year. For the Q4, revenue increased 25% to EUR 231.5 million and 21% on a cost and currency basis over the prior year. Revenue growth was mainly driven by a 31% increase in high-value solutions and a 21% increase from other containment and delivery solutions.
In Q4, gross profit margin increased to 37.3% due to strong revenue generation, the favorable mix, better leverage of fixed cost, and the recovery of inflationary costs. Operating profit margin for the segment was 23.7% in the quarter. For the full year, revenue grew 15% to EUR 799.7 million and 11% on a cost and currency basis compared with fiscal 2021. Revenue from High-Value Solution grew 41%, while other containment delivery solutions were up 4% over the prior year. For the full year, gross profit margin for the BDS segment increased 120 basis point to 34.3%, and operating profit margin improved to 22.8% despite inflationary headwinds.
Financial results for the engineering segment were better than expected in the Q4, revenue increased 30% to EUR 60.6 million, mostly due to the timing and progression of projects. For the full year, revenue increased 23% to EUR 184 million, driven by growth in all business lines. For the Q4 of 2022, gross profit margin decreased 50 basis points to 21.2%, mostly due to project mix, operating profit margin was 12.2%. For the full year, gross profit margin improved 230 basis points to 21.6%, mainly driven by contribution for more accretive business lines as well as ongoing business optimization effort. As a result, operating profit margin improved to 13.8%.
On slide 15, as of end of December 2022, we had a positive net financial position of EUR 46 million, and cash and cash equivalent of EUR 228.7 million. For the full year, net cash generated from operating activities was EUR 103.3 million, reflecting increased working capital to support growth and higher inventory to mitigate supply chain risk. Meanwhile, cash used for investing totaled EUR 243 million to support our expansion plans. This resulted in a negative free cash flow of EUR 137 million for fiscal 2022. In February 2023, we secured 2 loans totaling EUR 130 million for our ongoing investment in growth platforms. The first 5-year loan was financed through BNP Paribas for EUR 70 million. The second loan, for EUR 60 million, was financed through Cassa Depositi e Prestiti.
Both loans have a 2 years draw down. We can access the capital when needed. The loans shore up our balance sheet and provide us other flexibility for capital deployment. Our balance sheet is healthy. We believe we have adequate liquidity to fund future growth. Turning to CapEx on slide 16. In 2022, capital expenditure were EUR 302.6 million as we continue to invest in our strategic global expansion. As Franco noted, we are focusing our effort in the U.S. and Italy to capitalize on rising demand. We are forecasting capital expenditure of 35%-40% of revenue in 2023, of which approximately EUR 70 million is carryover from fiscal 2022. Approximately 90% of our expected CapEx is tied to growth and the remaining balance for all other activities, including R&D.
Let's review guidance on page 17. For fiscal 2023, we expect revenue in the range of EUR 1,085 million-EUR 1,115 million. This implies growth between 10%-13%. Excluding COVID, growth is estimated to be greater than 20%. Adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $0.58-$0.62. Adjusted EBITDA in the range of EUR 290.5 million-EUR 302.5 million. Our 2023 guidance assumes headwinds and tailwind and considers the following. First, we expect that our second half results will be stronger than the first half, and growth will be linear throughout the year. Our model assumes double-digit growth in the BDS segment and high single-digit growth in engineering.
Consistent with prior years, we expect a step down in revenue in the Q1 compared to Q4 2022. We have assumed that high-value solutions will represent approximately 32%-34% of 2023 forecasted revenue. Revenue from COVID-19 is expected to decrease by approximately EUR 80 million in 2023 versus 2022. We estimate that it will represent about 2%-3% of revenue. Lastly, we are estimating a currency headwind of approximately EUR 13 million-EUR 14 million. Thank you. I will hand the call back to Franco for closing comment.
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
Thanks, Marco. Stevanato financial results in 2022 demonstrated that we have the right strategy in place. We are operating in an environment of strong demand, growing end market, and multi-year secular drivers. With the favorable demand landscape, our capital allocation priorities are designed to meet current and future customer demand trends. The timing of customer demand requires us to invest several years in advance of commercial production to seize the opportunity in front of us. We have strong momentum entering 2023. With our unique integrated capabilities and market-leading portfolio, we are well positioned to drive durable organic growth and in turn, increase shareholder value. With that, let's open it up for questions.
Operator (participant)
This is the Chorus Call Conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself a question, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Once again, that's star and one for questions. We will pause for a moment while participants join the queue. The first question is from Paul Knight of KeyBanc. Please go ahead.
Paul Knight (Managing Director)
Hi, Franco Moro. On the growth in biologics yous mentioned, would it be the GLP-1 that stand out or what therapeutics would you note in this increase in your CapEx?
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
Hi, Paul. Yeah, you know that we are targeting a more technological area than a single therapeutic area because our solution addresses specifically the need for biologics. You are right, we are targeting some areas that are fast-growing and more than expected, really. One is the GLP-1 that has strong drive for our demand. Also I want to mention mRNA application that during the pandemic proved to be a real answer to for treatment, effective treatment for diseases. This is the main area, but we have a good pipeline of opportunity also in other therapeutic areas.
Paul Knight (Managing Director)
In regarding Fisher expansion, will that occur in terms of revenue generation over 2024 or will it go take time to build that up into 2025 and onward? What would be the steps of revenue generation at Fisher? Thank you.
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
I can confirm, Paul, that we see the completion of the first steps for validation end of this year, and we expect to have the ramp-up of revenues during 2024. Obviously, we are talking about a modular investment that is a multi-year investment. It's not just for a single year. We expect to develop our revenue not only 2024, but even later as the project progress.
Paul Knight (Managing Director)
Thank you.
Lisa Miles (Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer)
Thanks, Paul. Sabrina, next question, please.
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Patrick Donnelly of Citi. Please go ahead.
Patrick Donnelly (Managing Director, Equity Research)
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe another one just on the capacity expansions there, just shifting the resources towards areas like Fishers. Is it just that the demand is so strong here in the U.S. versus, you know, China, that you wanted to kind of accelerate that process? Is there a way to kind of think about revenue being committed ahead of time as you guys build this out? Or is it gonna be kind of as you build it out, you'll fill it? Just trying to get a sense for the shift here. Obviously, you know, you guys are excited about the opportunities. I just wanna feel out what that demand looks like versus versus the China piece.
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
Yes, you got it right. Our decision time of where we allocate CapEx is market-driven, is demand-driven. We see an acceleration in demand, both in US and Europe. We decide to accelerate investment, both areas and in future, obviously, but also in our Italian site for EZ-fill. We are still investing in EZ-fill platform and high-value solutions. About China, second half of your question, we decide only to analyze, to take some time to analyze the situation and in the meantime, to optimize our capital location. We remain strategically focused on the potential expansion in China. The market for the future will provide very interesting opportunities.
We decide just for this year, as I put in my prepared comments, to tap the brakes, and we expect now to have the foot of the brakes sometime during 2024. The strategic meaning of the investment in China will remain the same that we mentioned at the very beginning.
Patrick Donnelly (Managing Director, Equity Research)
Okay, that's helpful. Maybe one from Marco on the margin piece. Can you just talk about, you know, expectations for 2023, how those will progress this year? Then also as some of this capacity comes online, how we should think about the margin profile of that revenue, just kind of thinking longer term. I know as these things came online, you know, that was always a nice margin opportunity. Maybe talk 2023 and then a little longer term as things like Fisher come online. Thank you, guys.
Marco Dal Lago (CFO)
Thanks, Patrick. For 2023, our plan is to expand further the margin in both segments, in engineering and BDS. About BDS, we believe the main driver will be the shifting to our High-Value Solution. Now we are guiding between 32%-44% of High-Value Solutions on total revenues. On the other side, you are right, the margin expansion in BDS will be temporarily tempered by the startup cost in Fisher, in Latina, because to secure the success of the project, we need to put people and cost in place. That will be for 2023 more than proportional compared to the growth of the revenue. What we expect for the future is obviously the invest in High-Value Solution is to further expand as soon as the revenue generation will be normalized compared to the infrastructure and the costs.
Patrick Donnelly (Managing Director, Equity Research)
Okay. Thank you, guys.
Lisa Miles (Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer)
Thanks, Patrick. Sabrina, next question, please.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Derik De Bruin of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Derik De Bruin (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking a question. Just to expand a little bit on what Patrick just asked. Specifically on the gross margin, how should we think about that going from Q1 to Q4? Just as I said, any sort of like color on just sort of like how to balance. Do you expect Q1 to be up from the prior year level in 2022 and then sort of grow off of that? Just color on, just some color on the specific pacing, just given the movement, moving parts.
Marco Dal Lago (CFO)
Yeah, we mentioned during the commentary remarks that we plan to grow the top line quarter after quarter. Matter of fact, we expect also to expand the margin going quarter after quarter because of the better leverage of our fixed expenses and because of the greater in-store capacity in EZ-fill high-value solutions for Latina, for example, in the second half of the year.
Derik De Bruin (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay, great. Thank you. Just want to clarify that.
Marco Dal Lago (CFO)
Nevertheless, we plan to keep on expanding our margin compared to 2022. So.
Derik De Bruin (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. Is that EUR 80 million in COVID-19, is that a de-risk number for 2023? Basically, it's like, what's the conservatism in that? You came in a little bit stronger in the Q4 on COVID than we had thought. Just want to know if that's a, that 80 number, $80 million, just for like how to think about that?
Marco Dal Lago (CFO)
A 2%-3% revenue generation from COVID is what we can see today. Obviously, it's not easy to predict future evolution, but what we can see today is that level of revenue. Importantly, I think it's the excluding COVID growth that is expected to be north of 20%.
Derik De Bruin (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Got it. Just one final one. On, you mentioned the GLPs and mRNAs. Can you give us some color on how to sort of think about unit dynamics and incremental revenue from that? Basically, if you're thinking about a GLP-1, what would be a average sort of like revenue contribution from a typical components that you're selling into it? How should we think about this in terms of revenue, Stevanato, from a unit cost basis?
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
I, you know, Derik, I cannot disclose any specific prospect with a single customer. What I can say is that if you look at the new FDA approval in term of potential blockbuster, we have data about the four main blockbuster for the next year. I can confirm that we are at paying three of these projects among four. We expect to have a certain contribution, at the same time, the high diversification of our portfolio in term of customer, in term of therapeutic area, we remain a factor to make our business resilient.
Lisa Miles (Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer)
Derik, I just want to confirm and clarify your question. I think that your question was asking related to things like GLP-1, the average revenue per component.
Derik De Bruin (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Yeah.
Lisa Miles (Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer)
It's basically what type of product would you be selling into those?
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
Okay. In this time and time of the format, we are talking about biological molecules, sensitive molecules, that their first option is to deliver by syringes. We expect to have impact in this kind of product line. For sure is linked to high-value solution syringes because we are addressing the needs of molecules that are highly sensitive. We have a good prospect, including our Nexa syringes in that space.
Derik De Bruin (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Thank you.
Lisa Miles (Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer)
Thanks, Derik. Sabrina, next question, please.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Tim Daley of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Timothy Daley (VP and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks. Just wanted to touch on the kind of broader biosimilars tailwinds, you know, as this becomes a bigger dynamic in the United States. Just in thinking about the value curve here, on the components that you sell, you know, how do biosimilars assets compare to the original assets? Like, you know, would biosimilars be using Nexa and all the syringes? Would there be a step down to a more commoditized type of solution when it goes biosimilars? Just any help here would be appreciated.
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
First comment is about the suitability of our product for biosimilars. We are in a very strong position because as we serve the originator at first, then biosimilars companies like to de-risk their business using the same solution that proved to be the right one for the originator. Second point is that also for biosimilars, the cost of the container remains a minor, very minor part compared to the total cost of treatment. There is no expected significant impact in the competitiveness of our solution because of a different competition on the treatment side. These are the two comments that are also based on our experience along the years.
Timothy Daley (VP and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. No, I appreciate that. Secondly, thinking about raw material pricing and the security of supply on the glass front, I believe you guys, in November every year, start a new master supply agreement with suppliers on glass tubes. You know, how did that go? Was there any changes on the price front, cost front, you know, suppliers, duration, anything changing, I guess, on that, on that side of the things, you know, as you look forward into 2023?
Lisa Miles (Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer)
I just wanna clarify your question, Tim. I think you're asking specifically about glass tubing, and as we're going into 2023, if there's any changes as we see in the pricing landscape there.
Timothy Daley (VP and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Yes, like price costs in terms of your supply of glass tubing. Correct.
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
Yes, over the last part of the year, we are normally in the renewal process of a commercial agreement with a supplier. We see some impact of inflation, even if there is, let's say, a calm down of cost of energy that is much less than the hot period in the middle of 2022. We look at this increasing cost, and we are back to the regular practice to recalculate the cost and pricing accordingly, including the marginality. In this case, that is something that we could not do 100% during 2022.
Timothy Daley (VP and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
All right, great. Thank you for the time. Appreciate it.
Lisa Miles (Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer)
Thanks, Tim. Sabrina, next question.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from John Sourbeer, from UBS. Please go ahead.
John Sourbeer (Executive Director)
Hi. Thanks for taking the question. you know, the HVS growth was pretty solid in the quarter. I guess just can you talk about, you know, what products or traction you're getting with most of those customers there? you know, the company is approaching that mid 30% revenue target this year. Any thoughts on just, you know, where this could go over the long term as a % of revenues?
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
Yeah. We remain confident to confirm that in the next 2 years, we will develop this share in the high end of 30%. We are in the good trajectory. For sure, we are investing to support these opportunities, but our strategy and our view of the future is not changed from what we communicated in the past. We are very confident that we can achieve it.
John Sourbeer (Executive Director)
Got it. Then I guess just a follow-up clarification on China. Are you providing a timeline on when you expect this capacity actually to come online? Sounds like decision being made in 2024, just any additional color that you can provide around that as well.
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
Yes. As I told before, we are still analyzing the situation to take a decision about the to restart the project. I confirm that it will be sometime in 2024, the restart of this project. In terms of revenue, we could be more precise in the following calls because now we are still in the analysis of the situation.
John Sourbeer (Executive Director)
Got it.
Lisa Miles (Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer)
John-
John Sourbeer (Executive Director)
Thanks for taking the question.
Lisa Miles (Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer)
John, I just wanted to follow up with your first question on high-value solutions. While yes, our target in 2026 is now high 30%, I wanna be clear that that is not a cap, and that we anticipate that we can go well beyond that as capacity for high-value solutions continues to come online.
John Sourbeer (Executive Director)
Got it. Appreciate the clarification there. Thanks.
Lisa Miles (Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer)
Thanks, John. Sabrina, next question, please.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Dave Windley of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
David Windley (Managing Director)
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Good afternoon. The pull forwards of revenue into the Q4, I'm wondering if you'd be willing to quantify those. Did they influence the % of revenue from high-value solutions at all? I'm assuming, you know, certainly the engineering is not high-value solutions, I wouldn't think, and maybe the COVID is not particularly rich on high-value solutions. I just wondered if it, you know, the amount and if it impacted the HVS % metrics at all.
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
Yeah, you are right, David, we had this almost 37% of high-value solution on total BDS revenue. We are pretty happy with the progresses and it's, let's say, in line with our previous guidance for 2022. 2023, we expect to further expand the share of high-value solution from 32%-44%. As Lisa was mentioning, we are rising a little bit our midterm expectation, having now a high 30% by 2026. We are happy with the speed of the shifting.
Lisa Miles (Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer)
Dave, I just wanna clarify, the guidance for high-value solutions is 32%-34% for next year, and you should anticipate quarterly fluctuations here and there.
David Windley (Managing Director)
Okay. Thank you. The next question is around the capacity expansion change in plans. In the earliest iteration of that Fishers plan, and you've confirmed this since, it was about EUR 150 million investment that was expected to produce about EUR 150 million in revenue when fully ramped. Can we now expect that this Fishers plant could ramp to EUR 500 million in revenue? Is that still kind of the proportion of capacity productivity?
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
Yes, this is, yes, I can confirm that is a reasonable proportion. The nature of the investment is still for high-value solutions, including more EZ-fill vials, including more syringes. The internal rate of return and the financial success of the investment is, for us, very important. At the end, yes, you're right, we expect to have the same ratio in between EUR 1 in CapEx, EUR 1 in revenue. It's obviously a thumb rule, but it's what we expect.
David Windley (Managing Director)
Yes, Franco, thank you, 'cause that segues into the follow-up question on that, which is, roughly how long would you expect it to take to get to, you know, full utilization on that facility, thinking both from a revenue standpoint, but then also to the extent that your commentary today, you know, suggests that, you know, the build to full utilization does have some margin drag to it. How should we think about the time to get to normal margin? Kind of a two-parter on that, please.
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
Yeah. The project itself is multi-year, and we proceed module by module in the installation. We expect to complete this phase of the investment, EUR 500 million, by the end of 2026, including the last validation. To ramp up to, at the full ramp up, we could expect to have at least 2 years more to have the full utilization of the capacity because we have to spend time to validate different products and different customers. This is the timeframe for the full utilization now, as always, our modular approach will allow us some flexibility in term of possible acceleration or different tuning of the CapEx.
David Windley (Managing Director)
Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you. Good luck.
Lisa Miles (Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer)
Thanks, Dave. Sabrina, next question, please.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Matt Larew of William Blair. Please go ahead.
Madeline Mollman (Equity Research Associate - Healthcare)
Hi, this is Madeline Mollman on for Matt Larew. We talked a little bit about pricing on the supply side, I just wanted to see how you were thinking about pricing from your perspective in 2023. As COVID starts to roll off, do you have opportunities to take price from maybe you were discounting bulk orders or something like that? Do you think there's room for pricing to improve in 2023?
Lisa Miles (Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer)
Madeline, I apologize. We were unable to hear the beginning of your question. Can you please repeat the question and perhaps speak a little slower?
Madeline Mollman (Equity Research Associate - Healthcare)
Yes. Sorry about that. I was just wondering how you were thinking about pricing in 2023 as COVID begins to roll off, if there's going to be opportunities for you to replace large COVID bulk orders with maybe more attractively priced smaller orders, something like that, how you were thinking about pricing in 2023 versus 2022.
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
As mentioned many times, we are, we do expect inflation as anybody else in 2023. We are pricing accordingly, including in the margin into our pricing. In shifting to a High-Value Solution, this is the approach we are keeping with respect to pricing. On top of that, you can also remember that COVID business was mostly related to vials. We have a much broader range of products, and the situation about vials is only part of the full picture for us.
Madeline Mollman (Equity Research Associate - Healthcare)
Great. Thank you.
Lisa Miles (Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer)
Thanks, Madeline. Sabrina, may we have the next question, please?
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Drew Ranieri of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Andrew Ranieri (VP, Medical Technology Equity Research)
Hi, thanks for taking the questions. Just to start, to go back to, I think, it was David's question. Can you just talk about the pull forward in engineering revenue in the Q4? Is it possible if you could quantify what the pull forward was in terms of revenue?
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
Yeah, we have an acceleration in our progresses on projects in Q4, more than expected to accommodate some customer requests. We are accelerating our revenues in Q4 for about EUR 7 million-8 million in engineering. As mentioned in my commentary, something similar happened to COVID, we have been able to deliver it. Some products expected to be delivered in Q1, again, to accommodate customers' request.
Andrew Ranieri (VP, Medical Technology Equity Research)
Got it. Then just as we're thinking about guidance for the year, the commentary on a step down from Q4 into Q1, understandably, there's a few dynamics here. One is COVID. Two is the engineering pull forward that we were just discussing. Can you help frame what maybe a % decline would be sequentially from the Q4 to the Q1, so we're kind of all on the same page about the full year progression?
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
What we can tell you today is that we expect a stronger second half of the year, and the evolution quarter after quarter will be growing in 2023 similarly to what we have done in 2022.
Andrew Ranieri (VP, Medical Technology Equity Research)
Okay. And then maybe just lastly on the backlog. With COVID revenue falling off, can you discuss how you're thinking about backlog for the year and potentially order intake? Maybe what's embedded in your 2023 guidance in terms of book to bill or anything that we should be thinking about there? And you've in the past, you've quantified maybe what your backlog was for the current year and the following year. So just wondering what your current backlog implies for 2023 and 2024. Thank you for taking the questions.
Franco Moro (Former CEO)
Yes. I start to think something about the meaning of the backlog for us. That is obviously an important indicator of the demand, but it doesn't represent the full picture. Full picture about the demand landscape and also the demand trend. It link also different forecast that we regularly discuss with our customers to look into their future needs in the short and the long run. Now we are back to something that is more similar to what was the situation before the pandemic. During the pandemic, the pattern for orders coming from customers changes a little and it became longer. Now we are back to a situation that is normalized and very similar to the year before the pandemic. In any case, the view that we have from backlog, from forecast, from any other interaction with customer support our view about the year.
Lisa Miles (Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer)
Thanks, Drew. Sabrina, can we have the next question, please?
Operator (participant)
For any further questions, please press star and one on your telephone. Ms. Miles, gentlemen, there are no more questions at this time. This conclude our conference call. Thank you for joining. You may disconnect your telephones. Thank you.