Suzano - Earnings Call - Q2 2025
August 7, 2025
Transcript
Speaker 5
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for holding and welcome to Suzano S.A.'s conference call to discuss the results for the second quarter of 2025. We would like to inform that all participants will be in a listen-only mode during the presentation that will be addressed by the CEO, Beto Abreu, and other executive officers. This call will be presented in English with simultaneous translation to Portuguese. To change the audio, you can press the globe icon on the lower right side of your Zoom screen and then choose to enter the Portuguese room. After that, select Mute original audio. Before proceeding, please be aware that any forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Suzano S.A.'s management and on information currently available to the company.
They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. You should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions, and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Suzano S.A. and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Beto Abreu. Please, you may begin your presentation.
Speaker 6
Thank you everyone for attending our second quarter results from Suzano S.A. I would like to start sharing a couple of highlights of our results in the second quarter, but also I'd like to cover and give you more details about the relevant information that we shared last night with all of you and with the market. Regarding the results, all the numbers were quite in line with what we planned, with what we expected, mainly regarding sales, operational, cash. I want to reinforce that the trend that we saw regarding the cash cost is something that we will see in the next quarter. We are really expecting even lower cost in the third quarter regarding the second quarter and even lower in the last quarter. Aires Galhardo will be able to cover that specific topic with more details.
I also would like to share with you more details regarding the swap and the deal that was announced with Eldorado Brasil Celulose. Just to give you a summary about the concept here, what's going to happen is that we're going to be able, once we sign it already, the deal is to start harvesting their wood immediately in 2025, but also in 2026 and 2027, and we will have to give back the same amount of volume and they will start harvesting 2028, 2029, 2030, and 2031. That will allow our forest to grow during this period of time and then much more volume in terms of cubic meter will be available in our operation. That of course means cost avoidance, CAPEX avoidance to be very honest in terms of less planning and also less wood to be acquired in the market.
We will also be able to reduce in a very important way the ratio, the average ratio for our operations, meaning Ribas do Rio Pardo and Três Lagoas. This is the kind of deal that we want to pursue, considering the amount of value that is generating for the business. We are expecting internal rate of return of the deal which will be around 20%. That's what we are expecting with this deal with Eldorado Brasil Celulose. I want also to mention that the deal will bring us an optionality to in the future increase production at the Ribas do Rio Pardo mill, since we have been learning that the capacity of that mill is even higher than the one that is in the plan. That mill might be able to produce something between 100,000 and 150,000 tons per year more than was originally planned.
That's what we have been learning in the mill in the last couple of months. The deal that we are doing now also creates the optionality for the company to increase in the future production at this mill without any investment if we decide to do it and if the market brings the right environment to justify any kind of increase in terms of production. That's the rationale behind the deal. We can also comment in more detail if you want, during the call. The other thing that I would like to mention is the communication regarding the 3.5% reduction in our production in the next 12 months. It's completely aligned with our objectives to produce with the right level of return. That's not only about, of course, producing more and generating cash, but it's producing with the right level of return that we expect from our operation.
We are being absolutely consistent with what we have been doing the last couple of years. Just to give more detail regarding the process, we should reduce in a linear way in the next 12 months the reduction in our operation. Leo can also comment regarding the business environment. This is a decision that we use to accept from the finance team that is controlling all the time the profitability and the level of return of any ton of pulp that we produce in our mills. I will finish mentioning that our focus, as I have been mentioning in the other calls, will be on competitiveness. This is why I'm highlighting the trend regarding the cash cost in the next quarter and also in executing the deal that we signed with Kimberly-Clark.
Firstly, making sure that the carve-out will be done on time and on budget, but also making sure that we do not bring any new distraction in terms of new initiatives on the M&A arena to the table. We want to concentrate to execute well what we have on the table right now. In the next two years, that will be our focus: executing our process, deleveraging, and also making sure that our level of competitiveness will keep increasing on our operational side. That's the main highlight that I would like to share with you, again saying that sales, operational, cash generation, and EBITDA were absolutely in line with what the team here has planned for the quarter. Having said that, I would like to hand over to Fabio, who will cover the paper and packaging business.
Speaker 1
Thank you Beto and good morning everyone. Let's turn to the next page of the presentation. Our second quarter results were marked by stronger sales volumes and lower costs versus Q1, with EBITDA growth from our Brazilian operations on a quarter over quarter and a year over year basis. Although Brazilian operations didn't have any planned maintenance in the quarter, as I have mentioned to you on our last call, we conducted in April our annual maintenance at the Pine Bluff mill, which was executed on time and slightly below budget but negatively impacted U.S. operations EBITDA due to the lower volumes and higher costs. Regarding price performance in Q2 versus Q1, starting with our Brazilian operations, the 1% price hike in the domestic market was more than offset by lower export prices as a result of product mix, regional location strategy, and BRL appreciation.
Regarding price performance on our U.S. operations, the 3% hike quarter over quarter was driven by product mix and better commercial locations. Now talking about demand dynamics in Q2, looking to the Brazilian market and according to IBAR, print and write demand including imports rose 6% in the first two months of Q2 year over year, domestic sales grew 6%, and imports grew 9%, driven mainly from higher demand for uncoated paper linked to the Brazilian government textbook program. Cut size demand remained stable while coated paper demand in Brazil shrunk in the same period. Outside Brazil and according to PPPC, uncoated woodfree paper demand, our main exported product, remains stable in North America and Latin America but declined 10% in Europe. International markets continue to show weak demand for print and write paper grades during the quarter due to unfavorable supply-demand balance and ongoing trade war uncertainties.
Turning to paperboard demand in Brazil, we saw a 3% demand increase in the first two months versus last year, with domestic sales up 5% and imports down 3% in the period. In the U.S. market, a focus region for Suzano packaging operations, according to Lumera, boxboard demand was stable in the first six months of 2025. However, demand for SBS boards, which Suzano packaging produces, has increased 1% over the same period, albeit coming from a 1% reduction versus Q1. Looking ahead to Suzano's paper and packaging business in Q3, we expect costs in our Brazilian operations to remain stable versus Q2 as no maintenance downtimes are scheduled. At Suzano Packaging in the U.S., we anticipate lower costs along with higher production and sales volumes. We are confident in delivering positive EBITDA from this operation. Going forward, sales volumes in Brazil are expected to increase versus Q2.
Given market seasonality, higher prices should remain stable. Before diving into our paper export performance, it's important to highlight that our paper exports were not exempt from the 50% import duties imposed by the U.S. government starting in August. To mitigate the impact, Suzano has built inventories in the U.S. that are sufficient to cover most of our sales throughout the year end, and we are now planning to redirect the majority of our exports in the U.S. to other regions. Currently, the U.S. accounts for around 20% of our total exports, and we are running different actions to mitigate the impact of the tariffs moving forward. Now I'll hand over to Leo who will be presenting our pulp business results.
Speaker 2
Thank you, Fabio. Thanks, Fabio, and good morning, everyone. Let's now turn to our pulp business unit where I'd like to highlight key developments for this past quarter. The second quarter was impacted by market disruptions in China following Liberation Day, as announced by the U.S. Government. These developments led to a temporary halt in Chinese purchases of pulp in the first half of the quarter, pressuring inventory buildup at main import hubs and triggering significant price corrections. As the quarter evolved, prices in Europe and North America followed the same downward price trend with the usual lag. Our order intake recovered from mid-May onwards, allowing us to effectively execute our sales and regional distribution strategy and keeping inventory stable in line with our previously announced plan.
The flattish price performance in our Q2 2025 results compared to the previous quarter is primarily due to the time gap between order intake and revenue recognition, combined with the fact that average prices outside China remained higher for longer during the period. Looking to the right side of our slide, a combination of higher volumes, which lowered costs, and stable prices in U.S. dollar terms resulted in a R$5.4 billion EBITDA, equivalent to a 52% EBITDA margin. Now, looking forward, I would like to highlight the following points. In China, following a strong sales performance in June, our July order intake reached exceptionally high levels. Purchase orders from our regular customers exceeded their historic averages, and we also saw a notable purchasing level from integrated pulp and paper producers.
Our sources in China indicate that such buying pattern has not only been seen by Suzano, but across the broad hardwood market, suggesting that a restocking movement seems to be underway. In July in China, paper and board production recovered to healthy levels, contributing to a reduction in pulp inventories at Chinese ports from the peaks in mid-June. This high operating rate, combined with a typical seasonal uptick in demand expected for most markets from late August onwards, is likely to support further increases in paper production going forward. On the supply side, new unexpected developments have begun to emerge, including extended maintenance and commercial downtimes and the additional dissolving pulp production campaign in Brazil by a major BHKP player. We believe that further supply driven adjustments are both likely and imminent. We are now entering the 10th consecutive month with prices below the estimated marginal cash cost of $600.
This represents an equivalent of more than 7 million tons of hardwood production or 15% of global hardwood capacity underwater as we speak. Additionally, pulp prices across all regions have already converged to Chinese levels. In our view, this combination creates an unsustainable economic environment for high cost pulp producers. In response to a more favorable demand outlook and emerging supply constraints, we have announced to all Asian customers, Chinese customers included, a $20 per ton price increase effective immediately for August sales orders. We are closely monitoring market dynamics in other regions where further upward pricing actions are being actively evaluated as part of our ongoing commercial strategy. With that said, I would now like to invite Aires Galhardo to address our cash cost performance for the past quarter.
Speaker 0
Thank you, Leo, and good morning, everyone. Moving ahead in the second quarter, all cash cost components declined versus first quarter 2025, mainly due to stronger operational performance as the quarter was free of scheduled maintenance downtimes, which led to lower fixed costs and higher energy exports. The reduction in average logging radius at our Imperatriz, Aracruz, and Três Lagoas operations was the main driver behind the decrease in the wood costs. Compared to the second quarter 2024, cash costs remained virtually stable. Lower fixed costs and higher energy exports were supported by a new Ribas mill. However, the 9% depreciation of the Brazilian real against U.S. dollars, combined with rising price of certain chemicals such as caustic soda, negatively impact the cash cost figure.
Although operational performance improved in the second quarter 2025 compared to quarter over quarter and year over year, some non-recurring events during the period limited a more significant reduction in the cash costs. Looking ahead, we continue to expect a downward trend in the cash cost over the coming quarters of 2025, supported by lower wood costs and the startup of a new biomass power boiler in Aracruz in the fourth quarter. In this context, we remain our outlook for average cash cost in 2024-2025 to remain close to the level recorded in the fourth quarter 2024, when we reached $870 per ton on an ex-stand time basis. This said, I invite Marcos to continue the presentation.
Speaker 3
Thank you, Iris. Good morning everyone. On slide 7 you can see that our net debt remained relatively stable sequentially at $13 billion. Our net leverage ticked up to 3.1 times from 3.0 times last quarter, namely impacted by the reduction in last 12 month EBITDA to $4.2 billion. We maintained a healthy amortization schedule with more than 6 years of average maturity and a solid cash position, which covers the company's obligations in the upcoming three years. Moving to slide 8, you can see our hedge position. We closed the second quarter of 2025 with an operational hedge position of $6.8 billion. It is worth highlighting that our current portfolio of zero cost collars has an average put option of 553, which is above today's FX level, and an average call option of 641. We are very well protected for the scenario that we're living today.
We also posted positive financial results of R$4.4 billion, helped by the 5% BRL appreciation, which had a positive impact on our debt position in U.S. dollars and also on the mark-to-market of derivatives position. Now I would like to hand it over to Beto for his final remarks.
Speaker 6
Thank you, Marcos. Most of the topics that we can see here in the last slide, I'm sure that I was able to cover during the introduction. My suggestion is to go directly to the Q and A. Thank you for attending the call and we will wait for the questions.
Speaker 5
We will now begin the Q&A section for investors and analysts. If you wish to ask a question, please click on Raise hand. If your question has already been answered, you can leave the queue by clicking on Put hand down. Our first question comes from Marcio Farid with Goldman Sachs.
Speaker 2
Hi Master. Good morning. We're going to start with your second question. Just because of our other participants, I will translate or try to translate this question in English, which is why we're seeing this changing dynamics in the hope scenario that allowed us to announce the $20 price increase for Asia, China included, and also the effects of yesterday's recent news about Chemi. As I mentioned in my speech, we have been seeing very high order intake levels in China since June and July. This level reached exceptionally high levels in all kinds of customers in our portfolio. I'm talking about the regular pulp customers, non-integrated mills. I'm also talking about integrated pulp and paper mills who, obviously as a consequence of this higher pattern in pulp purchases, should be reducing their pulp production. Even as per our knowledge, traders in the market are already starting a restocking pattern.
When we see also that cross with the production levels in China, which in July showed recovery to most grades, and as we come into what is now the highest seasonality period of the year in terms of paper production and pulp consumption, we see a scenario that is supportive. Added to that, the unexpected events that we're tracking in terms of flex capacity to dissolving pulp, extended maintenance downtimes and commercial downtimes, and our belief that this is just the beginning of a big cycle of commercial downtimes due to the fact that 15% of all production today is underwater, that led us to decide this price increase for China and for all other Asian markets as well.
Regarding other markets, also part of your question, we are analyzing that as we speak, and as this is a commodity, we believe that similar trends should follow suit in the following weeks or months. Regarding Cheng Ming, our evaluation of the news that we read yesterday is not very different than what we were hearing before. As we have been tracking, as of November last year they started to halt their production and then completely by December. There is a huge political push for the restarting or for solving the issue at the Shenming Mill or mills, the five mills that are part of the Chengling Group. Our knowledge is that this financial deal that was disclosed yesterday is focused a lot on the shoebox plant, which is a big paper producing plant, and most of it is to revamp paper machines.
In the beginning, I actually believe that this will be positive to the pulp market as they will be consuming market pulp rather than virtually vertically integrating as they have done in the past. Our analysis also shows that this amount of money is extremely small compared to all the finance that they need to recover, recoup all the idle machines that have stopped since December, and idling a stock machine, either paper and even more difficultly pulp, is not easy. That involves a lot of time, involves a lot of money, a lot of effort to return to the former patterns of production. Also, restarting in the moment where new paper machines, new printing, writing paper machines have started, some of them integrated, is very difficult.
I think that will pose a big challenge to whatever action is taken, even at the smaller fraction of what is or what used to be Xiangming's or what used to be Xiangmin. Most importantly, and this check I did today early morning prior to our call, talking to our main customers who used to compete against Jianming, our customers don't see any effect in the short term, are not worried at all about yesterday's news, and are confident about the short term fundamentals that I mentioned previously.
Speaker 1
That's great, and sorry, my question was what's in Portuguese?
Speaker 2
Sorry about that.
Speaker 3
No worries. Hi Marcio, Marcos here answering your first question which was regarding the internal rate of return of the deal that we announced with Eldorado Brasil Celulose. I'll try to explain you the rationale here and you understand where the levers are coming from. First, we want to make sure that we have our whole harvesting base for the Mato Grosso do Sul established already. However, we were running before probably with an average life of average age of our forestry a little bit below the optimum level. With this deal, we can push the average life of our forestry to the optimum level and this will optimize our CapEx and OpEx in the region.
By having the right age when we're harvesting, we will be able to reduce our harvesting area, so we will operate also in a more concentrated area, which will reduce our logistic cost and our operating cost as well. By being able to cut wood at a more mature age, we will have the ability to reduce our specific consumption at our mills, which also reduces our industrial cost. On the CapEx avoidance side, as we are cutting less area or harvesting less area, we also reduce our planting effort, reducing our CapEx on the forest reformation, and we will be able to reduce also the amount of wood that we buy from third parties.
When we combine all those benefits, we get to internal rate of return by reducing our CapEx and reducing our OpEx of around 20% level, and I would like to highlight that these returns could be even higher if we have the ability to increase the production at our Ribas do Rio Pardo mill, as Beto mentioned, that is running a little bit above what we were expecting before, and of course we will only do that if we have a healthy price environment at the moment.
Speaker 2
That's great, Marcos.
Speaker 1
Just a quick follow-up. Obviously, the production cut that you announced is probably not related to Mato Grosso do Sul, but this is the third year.
Speaker 0
Can we call it the structure now?
Speaker 1
The 3.4% cut or you will continue.
Speaker 2
To evaluate year by year.
Speaker 3
Thank you, Marcio. We don't disclose the regions where we are, the regions or the plants that we are reducing production. You can consider that we have a very detailed analysis on mill by mill and also on each type of wood that we have on every mill. We categorize all of our costs by own land, by leased land, and also by wood that we buy from third party. We have clusters in each of those types of wood, depending on the logistic costs. If we have a short distance, a medium distance, and a longer distance from the forest to the mill, by doing this matrix, we get that we have today close to 3% to 4% of our production that is well above the average of our cash cost. That is generating cash at this moment, but not meaningful returns for the company.
That's why we decided in this type of environment to reduce production. This will have a minimal impact on EBITDA for the company.
Speaker 2
That's great. Thanks a lot for the details.
Speaker 5
Next question from Rafael Barcellos with Bradesco BBI.
Hello, good morning and thanks for taking my questions. My first question is for Beto. Beto, you mentioned in the beginning of your speech that Ribas could produce more going forward without a significant investment. Firstly, I wanted to confirm the number. I understand that you mentioned between 100,000 and 150,000 tonnes more. I also wanted to understand more about the timing of this addition. In this context, since I understand, as Marcos just said, the company will rationalize production levels depending on market conditions. Could you please just elaborate a bit more on what should be seen as a normalized production level going forward if we enter into a scenario of pulp prices below the $550 per ton level for a bit longer, or if this recent production cut announcement already considers this scenario? I want to understand better the assumption here.
My second question is about your packaging business in the U.S. You mentioned that in the third quarter, the third quarter should mark the first quarter of a positive EBITDA. Could you please give more color on the main opportunities that you have already identified in the U.S. packaging market, and what we could consider in terms of potential profitability and organic growth in the region? Lastly, are you analyzing any further significant investments in the region? Thank you.
Speaker 2
Rafael.
Speaker 6
Thank you for the question. Let me cover first the question related to the capacity of Ribas. Firstly, just to be very clear, any additional production at Ribas do not request any CapEx. There's no bottleneck to be discussed. This is just the way that we are running the mill at this time. The Ribas mill is already running at full capacity. Remember that the business case and nominal capacity that we were considering for the mill was 2.55 million tons, and we had been learning that we can produce more. This is something between 100,000, 150,000 tons per year exactly with the same mill that we have today with no further investment. This is just about a mill that's performing better than we expected. That's the point here. When this extra production can be executed will of course depend on the business environment.
We can do this in the next quarters depending on the business environment. That's why having the optionality of extra wood in case we decide to increase production is also a very important benefit from the deal that we just announced.
Speaker 3
Rafael, just to complement, we don't provide a guidance on production, but what you can consider is that we were producing at full capacity and now we announced this 3.5% production reduction, which is equivalent to 450,000 tons. We're starting that as of now. The 450,000 reduction is for 12 months.
Speaker 1
Hi, Rafael, Fabio here. I'm going to take your second question about our packaging business in the U.S. As I have been mentioning to you, our main focus has been on driving our cash cost down at the mill. After our annual maintenance shutdown, our focus now is to have lower costs moving forward. We have some projects internally that will help us to keep pushing the cost down and also better run ability as we expect in the second half of the year. In the market, we have contractual price increases that are going to be ticking up in the second half of this year. This has been contracted when we renewed our contracts at the end of last year. Part of the price increase is going to come to life now in the second half. That's going to help. Regarding opportunities, we're expanding our markets that we serve.
This mill was mainly serving liquid packaging board. We're now growing into food service. Just to give you a number, our sales for cup stock have grown almost 200% when compared to the same period of last year. We are trying also to.
Speaker 2
To.
Speaker 1
To broaden our product portfolio markets that we serve. For sure we have opportunities that we're looking at the market as we always do in all the markets that Suzano works, and you know, we're only going to pursue anything as Beto has mentioned at the beginning of the call, if we have the right return for the company. That's it.
Just a quick follow-up on this U.S. packaging business. When are you expecting to capture the full benefit of all of these initiatives?
Speaker 2
Thank you.
Speaker 1
We have a plan that until the end of, it's going to be second half of this year, is going to be much better than the first half, and then full capture 2026, and then after that we still have, you know, ways of improving our profitability there. That's probably going to require some CapEx that we need to discuss internally here.
Very clear, thank you.
Speaker 5
Our next question comes from Leonardo Correa with BTG Pactual.
Speaker 2
Hello everyone. Good morning. I have a couple questions on my side. The first one is more on market related topics and the second one is more of a company specific issue. Starting with the market question, moving back to the big discussion.
Speaker 6
Maybe of the day.
Speaker 2
Right. Leo, on the capacity cuts, given how depressed prices have been over the past several months, which clearly seems unsustainably low. Suzano came out with this message on cutting capacity, and as always, we're waiting for others to follow, just given how needed these supply cuts are. I just wanted to hear what you're seeing. I mean, you mentioned about Bracell switching to dissolving. We obviously saw Suzano, but what else are you seeing in the market? You're talking about imminent cuts from our side. We haven't really seen that much to justify, let's say, a V-shaped recovery in prices. Any additional color you can give us on how you're seeing the supply rationalization in the industry would be very helpful.
The second question, it caught my attention how strong the message was on your side, specifically on cost performance going forward into the second semester, which makes me wonder if I'm not mistaken, the cash cost guidance for the year in pulp is about $810, $815 per ton. Would you see any room in IDs? I know this is your territory here. If you can elaborate as well, if you guys see any room for potentially reducing that level, let's say below $800 per ton over the year. Thank you very much, Khaleel. I will start with your questions related to unexpected events affecting the pulp market. Again, it's important to state this number, which I think is extremely expressive, which is that 7.4 million tons today, as per info of tissue consultancy, on the cash cost of hardwood producers is below the water as we speak.
7.4 million tons, 15% of all hardwood production capacity in the world, is below water, and a big part of that has been for more than or close to 10 months. This is really shocking when you analyze that directly. Our view is that we're still seeing a smaller part of what unexpected events and commercial shutdowns should be, and the main reason in our interpretation is that all the uncertainties on tariffs made producers take longer to decide what they would do, as there was a lot of instability and uncertainty of what would shape the world. After at least the second waves of clear decisions and discussions on tariffs, even higher, producers were keeping their productions going because eventually they could end up with a favorable slot or opportunity to tackle.
Now that this scenario is getting clearer and clearer, I believe personally that we should see a much more accelerated level of commercial downtimes being announced as we speak, because this scenario is completely unsustainable.
Speaker 0
Hello, thanks for your question. It's a challenge to see any room to deliver on average a cash cost below $800 per ton in this year, especially when we see our results in the first half. To deliver our target, that is roughly $810 per ton.
Speaker 6
We should.
Speaker 0
Performance on a ratio lower than 800 reais per ton in some quarter in the second half. In our expectation for this, that brings part of the returns that we have for a deal with Eldorado. As Beto mentioned, we intend that we reduce our wood consumption, wood loss, and reduce the average radius of our forest logging to the second half, especially in the last quarter when we believe that this wood will be delivered at the facilities. This performance lower than 800 reais per ton, especially in the last quarter, the fourth quarter. We understand that will be our.
Speaker 2
Normal.
Speaker 0
Performance for coming quarters. Of course, it could be affected by FX and some cost for incomes, especially for some chemicals, especially caustic soda and natural gas. If the same conditions remain, we are able to deliver this new performance of second half in our routine to next clockers upcoming years.
Speaker 6
Okay, thank you very much, Leo. Just building on what Aires just said. You are completely right. We are very confident regarding the trend of cost reduction for the next quarter. As I mentioned before, I just want to mention that we are talking here about cash costs. At the end of the day, we are looking for the whole thing. We are looking for the total operation disbursement for the company. We are also looking ahead. We want to enter 2026 with a cost base lower than the one that we have in 2025. At the end of the day, this is our objective and this is absolutely in line with what we have been saying regarding our focus on increasing the level of competitiveness of the business. That is what is behind everything that we have been saying regarding cost.
This is a clear priority for the company and again, not only related to wood cost, not only related to industrial costs, but related to the total operation disbursement of the company.
Speaker 2
Okay, that's clear. Thank you, Beto.
Speaker 5
Our next question comes from Rodolfo Angeli with J.P. Morgan.
Hi, thanks for allowing me to do the question. My first question is on a consequence of the transaction and output. Eldorado Brasil Celulose, I wanted to hear from you what to expect on the CapEx side. I think for investors the story of Suzano S.A. is of, you know, a company that's entering a period where it's going to basically harvest the benefits of the CapEx that was done in the past year and supposed to be a free cash flow story which is starting to show. Of course every time there is an additional CapEx or an M&A transaction you kind of dense a little bit that part of the story, even though, you know, as you explained so far everything made a lot of sense.
My question is for 2026, is it reasonable to expect CapEx trending lower and, you know, if you could elaborate a little bit on that. My second question is a bit more, I guess, strategic and this one is to Beto. Beto, it's been a year more or less or a little bit more, I guess, since you've been leading the company, a lot has happened, right. Both on specific things that Suzano S.A. got involved with, plus the market has been quite a roller coaster ride. Looking forward, what should we expect? You know, can we expect a little bit of a breather and, you know, sit back, relax a little bit or, you know, is there something else in the management's agenda looking forward. That's all for me. Thank you.
Speaker 3
Hi João, Marcos here. On CapEx for 2026, we haven't disclosed yet our CapEx. We'll update you with the number as we run through our budget process, which will start in October, and we will give you the full disclosure of CapEx for 2026 at our Suzano Day in December. However, you are right, like we should be considering reducing our CapEx as a trend. Of course, every now and then there could be opportunities like the one that we just announced today that might increase our CapEx but with very decent returns. We will update you with the number, but the trend should be for a declining CapEx from way forward.
Speaker 6
Although regarding your question, I don't see any, you know, any moment to relax, to be very honest, in the business in the future. This is the nature of the business, nature of the environment of a global company. Geopolitical seems that will be more and more, say, unstable in the next couple of years. We must be awake and we must work with different scenarios and we want to be prepared for those different scenarios. That's why we have to be very concentrated and doing very well, which is under our control. Again, that's why we are talking all the time about competitiveness, about making sure that everything that we can control we can do it in the best of class way. We also are trying to again focus only on initiatives that can bring the level of return, the level of risk that we aim to the business.
That's why we take those kind of decisions as cut capacity and bringing and pursuing alternatives and deals that can bring a high level of return for the business. The focus will be again, as I have been saying, deleveraging. This is a clear focus for the organization and making sure that what we have in the pipeline, which is Pine Bluff, that by the way is going to operate with double-digit positive EBITDA during 2025, which is a clear turnaround that Fabio Almeida de Oliveira and the team has been able to make, and making sure that the transition process of the JV with Kimberly-Clark can be implemented in a very good way. This is not putting any further initiatives in the pipeline.
I don't think we have the right to relax because the business environment, it's tough, it is a roller coaster as you mentioned, and we want to be prepared for any kind of scenarios that we can face in the future. Anyway, thank you very much for your question.
Thank you, Beth.
Speaker 5
Our next question comes from Caio Ribeiro. I believe he dropped the queue, so I'm going to move on to Daniel Sasson with Itau BBA.
Hi, good morning everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. My first question is related to the tariff uncertainty that we saw over the past few weeks. With the potential of hardwood imports into the U.S. going to 50%, in the end the final decision was to not increase to 50%, but as per my understanding, pulp exports to the U.S. are going to be subject to a 10% tariff that didn't exist before?
Speaker 2
Right.
I guess my question is have you seen any sort of impacts in your order book specifically in North America because of these uncertainties? Could that harm your volumes in the third quarter? Has that already been normalized? Ultimately, who bears this 10% tariff that I think didn't exist before? Right. Are you engaging in one-on-one negotiations with your main clients in the U.S.? I know that you have some very big long-term clients there. How are these negotiations going? My second question is just if you could give us an update on the Kimberly-Clark acquisition. Have there been any new developments there in terms of the expected timeline for the deal to be closed, or have you started working with the clean team to help in the integration of those assets, or are you going to think about that only after the deal is super close to being approved?
Any new info you can give us on that front would be great. Thank you so much everyone.
Danielle, this is Leo here to tackle your questions about tariffs. Just before coming into the 10% tariffs, obviously we were relieved with the news that pulp, Brazilian pulp, hardwood pulp was out of this new tariffs to Brazilian exports into the U.S. at the same time. We trust our ability to reshuffle volumes around as pulp as a commodity. We were relieved because we have very, very long-term commitments to customers in the U.S., tissue producers who are producing the best brands in the market, the most recognized brands in the market with specific pulps being developed together with them from Suzano and previously the companies that are now Suzano to ensure that these products have the qualities that the U.S. consumers are so used to. This would be, I would say, harmful in that sense of having lost that commitment and we're happy that that didn't happen.
Our order books to the U.S. are normalized. As you know, we are mainly selling to tissue producers and tissue posts a very stable demand and sales pattern in North America. We don't see any shifts or directional moves that would bring us off our plans for Q3 or Q4 going forward. I expect normality again. These are extremely long-term contracts where Suzano even manages the inventories of bulk inside each and every mill of these customers who in most cases are exclusive to Suzano. Regarding the 10% tariffs implementation, we have successfully negotiated with customers that they're going to pay for the 10% tariff. Suzano is not going to take this burden. Going forward, unfortunately this effect will eventually come up to American consumers. Suzano will not be taking this toll. Hi Daniel, this is Luis. Thanks for your question regarding the JV with KC.
Both Suzano and Kimberly-Clark have already created dedicated teams, very senior and dedicated teams to plan the carve out of this new JV.
Speaker 6
We had already kicked off the project.
Speaker 2
Meeting all the teams together. The project is going as planned, and we look forward to close the operation in the third quarter of 2026. Perfect.
Thank you. Thank you, everyone.
Speaker 5
Next question from Eugenia Cavaliero with Morgan Stanley.
Speaker 2
Hi everyone.
Speaker 3
Good morning and thank you for the opportunity. Two questions on my side.
Speaker 2
The first is regarding the fiber to.
Speaker 3
Fiber transition, and you can update us on what you have been seeing on that front, particularly given the higher spread between the two fibers that we see.
Speaker 2
How are your customers adopting that?
Speaker 3
How has this been evolving?
Speaker 2
The second one would be on shareholders return. How are you seeing potential dividend?
Speaker 3
Payments and share buyback in light of the deleveraging process?
Speaker 2
The M&A transactions that you.
Speaker 3
have announced the slightly increasing CapEx guidance for the year. How have you been thinking about shareholder return in that scenario?
Speaker 2
Thank you. Hi Eugenia, this is Leo again. To answer your question on fiber to fiber, we are very glad to be protagonists on this movement together with our customers. There's a huge customer engagement across all regions of the world, and projects are being deployed as we speak. Obviously, the high spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp, which I expect to be even higher looking forward, will benefit us in this initiative as our customers obviously are worried and seek better margins as they also support our fiber to fiber initiatives. To conclude, I expect that what we'll see for 2025 is a trend much similar to the last three years rather than to the past years, where hardwood will gain over 1% market share over softwood again this year.
Speaker 3
Hi Eugenia. On shareholder returns on dividends, we will continue to respect our policy, which is the minimum between 25% of our profits or 10% of our operating cash flow generation. On buybacks, as we are very focused on deleveraging, we will probably have a lower appetite for buybacks as we would rather prefer. We will be very focused on deleveraging the balance sheet of the company at this moment.
Speaker 2
Thank you.
Speaker 5
Our next question comes from Caio Ribeiro with Bank of America.
All right, good morning everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. My first one is on the recent announcement of higher anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties on top of Canadian lumber exports into the U.S., which we feel could have the potential to increase the cost of wood chips in the region, potentially raise the cost of pulp production in the British Columbia region, which has already been under a lot of pressure under current price levels. I just wanted to see if you agree with that assessment and whether that could generate an opportunity for you in the region, in the U.S. in terms of gaining market share from the British Columbia producers.
Secondly, going back to the tissue assets that were part of the transaction with Kimberly-Clark, since the last call where you provided a lot of details on those assets, I imagine you've had some time to analyze those assets further. I just wanted to see if you still see those synergies of close to $175 million as still feasible to achieve and whether you have identified additional opportunities within those assets to improve profitability and if yes, what those initiatives could be and what they could generate in terms of additional gains. Thank you.
Speaker 2
Kayo. Without having and wanting to come into the merit if I agree or not with it, we are following and monitoring several actions that are still in place and what's being done by the U.S. Government at this peak. Right. We have this issue on higher tariffs for Canadian wood, which precedes President Trump. Obviously, that can benefit softwood producers in other regions of the world and, to a smaller part, hardwood producers as well. By the end of the day, as Eugenia asked, fiber to fiber as an alternative to higher cost wood and higher cost softwood. There is also Section 232 and all the investigations being done in that sense, then wood in a much broader basis rather than only Canadian, and also Section 301 investigations in place. There are a lot of things going on.
I don't believe this is the end of all these turmoils and uncertainties. As Beto mentioned, we're in this roller coaster ride. Be assured that Suzano is well prepared and taking all actions and having all contingency plans to navigate whatever environment is in place. Hi Caio, this is Luis. In this next phase of the JV integration project, we have more time to dig deeper and analyze more data. What we can share with you is that we maintain the 175 cost reduction opportunities and that as we move and analyze more data, we're more comfortable with that.
Great, thank you. That's very clear.
Speaker 5
Our next question comes from Yuri Pereira with Santander.
Speaker 2
Good morning. Regarding this, 15% of the industry below water, just to check it considers cash flow or cash costs only. In the case you are considering only cash costs, do you have any sensitivity about how many tons are below water in terms of cash flow and regarding the spread between dissolving pulp and hardwood, it would be very helpful if you can provide us what's the spread now versus historical levels and also if you have any outlook about it. Thank you so much. Yuri, this is Leo. I'll take both of your questions. This number that I mentioned is 7.4 million tons below prices, current prices and bleeding as we speak. This is cash cost delivered to Chinese ports. There is no consultancy information on the same analysis related to cash flow as us. Again, this is cash cost delivered to Chinese ports.
As we are now entering a phase where international prices all over the world are much aligned to Chinese prices, this analysis can be reflected to other zones or areas of the world as well. That's why we believe that the situation has reached the point of being completely unsustainable. The spread of dissolving to paper grade pulp exceeds the historic average of $200. It's declining. The price trend is also of a decline in dissolving wood pulp, but way above the historic $200 average. That is maybe the breakthrough of decision making between one or the other. Thank you.
Speaker 5
Thank you. The Q and A section is over. We would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Beto Abreu for his final remarks.
Speaker 6
Thank you. Before finishing, I want to remind all that our Suzano Investor Day this year will be on December 11th, so please put it in your agenda. I also would like to thank you for being here with us on the call today and for your interest in Suzano. As always, our team remains available for any additional question that you may have. I really wish you all a great day. Thank you very much.
Speaker 5
The Suzano S.A. second quarter of the 2025 conference call is concluded. The Investor Relations department is available to answer further questions you may have. Thank you and have a good day.