Suzano - Q3 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for holding, and welcome to Suzano's Conference Call to discuss the results for the third quarter of 2024. We'd like to inform you that all participants will be in listen-only mode during the presentation. That will be addressed by the CEO, Mr. Beto Abreu, and other executive officers.

This call will be presented in English, with simultaneous translation to Portuguese. To change the audio, you can press the globe icon located on the lower right side of your Zoom screen, and then choose to enter the Portuguese room. After that, you can select mute to original audio. Before proceeding, please be aware that any forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Suzano's executive board and on information currently available to the company.

They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions because they relate to future events, and therefore, depends on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. You should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions, and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Suzano's and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now, I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Beto Abreu. Please, you may begin your conference, sir.

Beto Abreu (CEO)

Thank you. Hello, everyone. Thank you for attending our call for the Third Quarter Results. I will start with the highlights. Let me start with sales. Sales volumes improved, as you saw, in all business, and here I want to highlight that was a very well-defined commercial strategy from the team. This strong sales with a better FX allowed us a strong EBITDA of BRL 6.5 billion, despite the higher cash cost. Indeed, the cash cost was higher than the previous quarter and in the previous quarter in the last year, but that was planned, as you know.

I want to reinforce here that considering the performance that we have been seeing at Ribas in the ramp up, considering the efficiency level, which is higher than we planned, I have to say that the such a peak of higher cost is already behind us, so we will see further details during the presentation.

My last comment on the financial side is related to leverage, which is still declining as planned, now with three point one. And still on the leverage topic, I would like to share with you that on the capital allocation side, I do not see Suzano going through any transformational move in the near future, so leverage will keep declining. It's clear declining trend, going forward.

Also during the quarter, we also had the closing of Lenzing, the closing of forestry asset from BTG that we acquired, and in the beginning of October, we also had the closing of Suzano Packaging US. So Suzano Packaging US, the former packaging assets in Pine Bluff.

So looking forward, the focus of Suzano for the next quarters will be generating value from those assets that we brought to our portfolio, delivering what we planned for the Cerrado Project, and also keep deleveraging the business as a whole. So that's the main highlights from Suzano in the third quarter. So let me hand over to Fabio, which will cover the paper and packaging business. Fabio, please go ahead.

Fabio Almeida de Oliveira (VP Paper and Packaging)

Thanks, Beto, and good morning, everyone. Please, let's turn to the next page on the presentation. Through the combination of good commercial execution and logistics flexibility, we were able to deliver the highest EBITDA since third quarter last year, despite growing operational challenges related with bottlenecks in our export supply chains.

On the domestic market, according to Ibá, print and writing demand, considering imports, increasing 7% in the first two months of the third quarter on a year-over-year basis. Sales from domestic producers grew 8% on the same comparison basis.

Demand was solid in all product lines, supported by better economic activity and from the election cycle tailwind on the coated paper grades. Demand for paperboard continued to grow, increasing a strong 18% during the first two months of the quarter, compared to the same period of last year.

Paperboard demand has been strong this year in all market segments, supported by the growth in paper packaging consumption and better economy overall. In the international markets, demand was sustained in North America and Latin America. While in Europe, demand for paper has shrunk during the summer due to seasonality.

Prices in U.S. dollars were mostly flat in the international markets during the period. Looking now to Suzano's figures, our sales volume in the quarter was 8% higher year-over-year and 9% above Q2, performance pushed by higher sales volumes in the domestic market.

Our export volumes were mostly flat versus the same period of last year and increased versus last quarter, although we have seen a continuous deterioration of the container supply chain, with congestions at ports domestically and abroad, related to poor service levels and higher costs for non-container carriers.

This is a result of a mix of different events: Red Sea traffic restrictions, low water level at Panama Canal, weather-related restrictions at Brazilian ports, which seems to be creating the perfect storm for Brazilian export companies that rely on containers. Suzano is seeking all alternatives to continue to serve its international customers despite these issues.

The 3% net price growth over Q2 was led by slightly better prices in the domestic market and favorable FX on our exports. On a year-over-year comparison, prices were lower by 3.8%, reflecting market adjustments after the normal price levels of the first half of 2023. Looking at EBITDA performance, the 13% quarter-over-quarter was driven by higher sales volumes and better pricing.

In the quarter, we had the annual maintenance downtimes at Limeira and Suzano mills, which are the two largest paper mills Suzano have, pressuring the COGS in line with the budget. Compared to Q3, 2023, Suzano EBITDA decreased by 8% due to lower prices in both Suzano Paper Packaging EBITDA decreased by 8% by lower prices in both domestic and international markets, despite higher sales volumes.

Looking ahead, we expect a strong seasonal demand in Q4 from our domestic market for uncoated papers and paperboard. For coated grades, we anticipate a return to structural decline as the election cycle impact fades. On international developed markets, we foresee demand return to a structural decline trend. In Latin America, we expect demand to be more resilient, albeit also declining.

Cost-wise, logistics expenses are expected to remain high due to ongoing disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties, which could offer support to paper prices in most markets. Regarding our cash costs, we anticipate improved performance on COGS in Q4, following the lack of maintenance stoppages. We also foresee stable cash costs ex downtimes in the upcoming quarter.

On October first, Suzano kicked off its operations of the Pine Bluff and Waynesville packaging assets acquired from Pactiv Evergreen. Our first weeks went quite well so far, focused on supporting our new colleagues, customers, and suppliers through this transition. We remain very excited about the business opportunities that this move will bring Suzano in the future. Now, I'll hand it over to Leo, who will be presenting our pulp business results.

Leonardo Grimaldi (VP Pulp)

Thanks, Fabio, and good morning, everyone. So moving to the next slide of our presentation, I would like to begin by sharing some facts related to this past quarter. It was indeed a very special moment for us, as we had started to operate and later to sell the first volumes of our brand new Ribas mill.

During these past months, we have first built up pulp inventories in the outbound logistics chain from Mato Grosso do Sul to Santos Port, in order to be able to operate Ribas efficiently. These new volumes were the only additions in the Q3 to our previously announced previous inventory levels, which, as we have been stating, were quite low and stays on the same operational levels as we speak. Our first shipments from Ribas Pulp have taken place during the latest part of the quarter.

During Q3, we have noticed quite a challenging market, led especially by headwinds from China. There, paper producers' inability to increase paper prices during previous quarters squeezed their margins, and the new pulp purchases came to a halt, almost a complete halt in July, right when the news of the startup of Ribas and a local Chinese mill, Liansheng, were announced.

As the quarter evolved, a sharp decrease in softwood prices led the way to a wave of intense price reductions in hardwood grades, both in local resale markets, as well as for new negotiations from imported pulp. Prices declined sharply, much faster than on previous cycles, reaching a set point, which triggered customers to reestablish their purchases, especially by the end of the quarter. In Europe and North America, despite better dynamics in terms of demand, prices started to correct following the trend posted by China.

We have navigated Q3 by focusing on maximizing our sales in Europe and America, while also positioning pulp in these markets to cope with higher seasonal demand in Q3 and Q4, and also reestablishing our service levels to regions and customers for whom we invoice directly once cargo is shipped out of Brazil, reducing, therefore, our backlogs from previous quarters.

This dynamic, which includes the sales of Ribas' first volumes, resulted in a strong invoicing during the quarter. Our realized prices were mostly affected by a higher concentration of our sales during the second half of the quarter, once a significant price drop was already in place, as well as a higher mix into Asia, where most of Ribas' initial volumes were sold.

Despite lower prices in US dollar terms in Q3, the combination of higher volumes and favorable FX resulted in a 3% increase of our EBITDA margin, now reaching BRL 5.7 billion. Now, looking forward, I would like to highlight the following points: Coming into the fourth quarter, we forecast healthy demand in all regions due to market seasonality, consequently favoring operational rates of paper producers globally. Tissue production rates have been the highlight in most global markets, and latest production figures have shown its demand resilience, despite eventual geopolitical or macroeconomic challenges.

As usual, in this time of the year, Chinese tissue producers are now boosting up their production as they're getting prepared for the Double 11 shopping gala. For several weeks and counting, mid-five hundred dollar price levels in China should have overrun profitability thresholds of marginal cost producers, based on consultant estimates of their marginal cash costs delivered to China.

Not surprisingly, we have already noticed some integrated Chinese pulp and paper producers buying market pulp since August, and their purchases of market pulp have been increasing with Suzano ever since. Despite higher volumes coming into the stream, it is our belief that prices in China are either at the bottom of the cycle or quite close to it, grounded by low to equalized pulp levels, pulp inventory levels in Chinese ports and in the hands of Chinese customers.

Solid paper production figures being further incentivized by mid and small-sized customers, who have recovered their operating rates once their margins increase. An above average price gap between softwood and hardwood, incentivizing fiber substitution. Customers in China and Asia are recovering their buying patterns and actually increasing order intake over historic figures.

On top of that, the fact that current price levels in Asia are below marginal cash costs of producers are likely triggering a new round of unplanned downtimes, as seen recently in later cycles. To give you some color on our October sales in China, negotiations are coming in line with our expectations, which includes Ribas volumes, and our order intake is being confirmed above historic average, which has enabled us to reestablish our operational backlogs, all of that with completely stable prices.

Looking forward and focusing on the supply side of the equation, just this week, reliable independent sources from the sector have confirmed a significant delay in the startup of the main pulp project expected for Indonesia, for which the startup of the first line was delayed from Q1 2025 to November 2025, and the second line, for now, pushed forward for 2026.

In addition, I wouldn't be surprised if we should continue to see further conversions of paper-grade pulp into dissolving pulp, just as, again, announced by a leading dissolving pulp producer, to take place in Q1 2025. This factor should ground a healthier market outlook for the coming months and beginning of 2025. With that said, I would now like to invite Aires to address with you the cash cost performance of the quarter.

Aires Galhardo (VP Operations)

Thank you, Leo. Good morning, everyone. Regarding our performance of cash production costs, I would highlight the three main factors that explain the 4% increase versus last quarter. The first of them is, it's related to the higher consumption of energy at the Araucária's mill, due to non-recurring events that brought lower operation stability in the period.

This occurrence have already been overcome, and we are now back to the performance foreseen in our operation plan. The second one, the startup of the new Ribas mill in July, also caused a temporary increase in costs, in this case, in the wood and chemicals components, which were totally in line with the expected performance.

In addition to these factors, the higher FX, although it benefits the company's cash generation, also pressure the cash costs this quarter, given that some inputs are linked to foreign currency. Third quarter marked the peak of the cash cost in 2024. As looking now forward to the fourth quarter, the solid progress of Ribas ramp-up allow us to estimate a middle single-digit reduction in the consolidated cash production cost when compared to the third quarter.

In the year-over-year analysis, the stable performance of the cash cost can be basically explained by 14% FX depreciation in the period, which offset the cost reduction of obtaining the wood, in turn, due to better harvest productivity, average radius, and a specific consumption, and in inputs, mainly due to lower cost soda and natural gas prices.

Moving to the next slide, I would like to share with you some important aspects about the first months of operations in of a new plant. In the chart on the upper left, it should be noted that we had a one-off effect of BRL 25 per ton in the COGS in the third quarter, fully related to the startup costs of the new mill, which therefore no longer exists in the fourth quarter.

When we look at the mill's cash cost performance in the chart right below, we see that based on June's cost performance, Ribas has already started to benefit the company's consolidated cash costs since September, due to the successful evolution of the plant's ramp-up.

Issue on the Ribas ramp-up, at the end of the third quarter, it reached 8% completion of the learning curve, above the 71% forecast for the period. And the last, but not least, it's also worth mentioning that the CapEx disbursement is according to the guidance already announced by the company. Now, I turn the floor to Marcelo Bacci, who will continue the presentation.

Marcelo Bacci (CFO)

Thank you, Aires, and good morning, everyone. On the following page, page eight, we see that the behavior of our capital structure in the quarter has been shaped by some strategic capital allocation initiatives. We had a very robust operational cash flow generation, and we spent a significant amount of cash in this quarter in initiatives that had already been announced before and had its closing during the quarter, especially the purchase of forestry assets and the participation in Lenzing.

And we also made a significant investment in share buybacks in the period of close to $500 million, that helped lead our net debt position to $12.88 billion, vis-a-vis $12 billion in the beginning of the period. Despite the increase in the absolute amount of the net debt, which was expected since we took these decisions on the capital structure side and capital allocation side, we saw a reduction in our leverage in terms of net debt to EBITDA, from 3.2%-3.1%, marking the end of the investment period of the Cerrado Project, with a leverage ratio below what we had expected before.

As Aires mentioned on the previous page, the payments related to Cerrado will be minor from now on, and this will help the company to continue in its de-leveraging process.

In terms of our liquidity, we continue to have a significant amount of liquidity, which is probably more than what we need since the Cerrado Project came to the end, and there has been a very significant de-risking of our capital structure coming from that.

We will be working on the coming months to reduce our liquidity, although we are not in a rush to do that, because the market conditions today are favorable to carrying more cash. We're gonna do that according to the opportunities that we have and that we're gonna see in the market. With that, I conclude the presentation here, and turn back to Beto for final considerations.

Beto Abreu (CEO)

Thank you, Marcelo. A few takeaways from what we just heard from the team here. The first one, it's regarding the execution of our largest investment ever, which is the Cerrado Project. So we must say that we are kicking now a new cycle with a completely different level of competitiveness and cash generation. So this is the first message here.

This will put us in the completely different level of resilience, and despite the pricing scenario, as mentioned from Leo, we see the business completely prepared to face different scenarios in terms of price.

And after all the progress on the business strategy, which is related to the closing of the forestry asset deal, Lenzing, and also the Suzano packaging business, we are now in the moment of extracting value from those movement, and this is the focus of the company from now on. So this is a takeaway from what we heard here. Let me open for question, and, and thank you for all of you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We'll now begin the Q&A session for investors and analysts. If you wish to ask a question, please press the Raise Hand button. If your question has already been answered, you can leave the queue by clicking on the same button. Wait while we pull for questions. Our first question comes from Jon Brandt, from HSBC. Please, Mr. Brandt, your microphone is open.

Jon Brandt (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Can you hear me okay?

Marcelo Bacci (CFO)

Yeah.

Operator (participant)

Yeah, yeah, we can.

Jon Brandt (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Perfect. Thank you. Congratulations on the results. It was a great quarter in terms of, you know, transformation and all the initiatives that you were able to achieve. I guess my first question is really sort of a debt and capital allocation question.

So, Marcelo, now that Cerrado is bigger with the Ribas mill coming on, is there any change to your debt policy, either in terms of leverage ratios, you know, targeted gross debt, targeted net debt? I know you briefly mentioned it in your remarks. I'm hoping you can sort of expand on it, and sort of what does that mean for capital allocation? You know, CapEx looks like it will fall in 2025 pretty substantially, depending on pulp prices.

So I guess I'm just trying to figure out sort of what's next, right? You should be able to come down into your targeted leverage ratios pretty quickly, depending on pulp prices. So should we see sort of increased dividends, maybe share buybacks? Are there other sort of initiatives that you're working on in terms of where some of this capital could be spent? I guess that's my first question.

And then sort of my second question, just briefly, you mentioned the pulp reduction, the 4% capacity reduction. I'm just wondering if we don't see a rebound in prices, you know, later this year or next year, is there any sort of other capacity that might be at risk of stopping? Thank you.

Marcelo Bacci (CFO)

John, thank you for your questions. This is Marcelo speaking. With the end of the Cerrado Project and the startup of the Ribas mill, we will continue and accelerate our deleverage because CapEx, as you mentioned, is reducing. We are still working on the CapEx guidance for next year, but for sure, it's gonna be a lower number than this year.

That will be released in December. The first, I would say, goal is to bring the leverage of the company back to the levels that we need to have outside of investment periods, which is below 3x net debt/EBITDA, between 2x and 3x. This is gonna come very fast in the coming quarters. Of course, the speed will depend on the behavior of pulp prices.

So this is the first priority to you know bring the company back to this normal level. We, on the CapEx side, as I said, we will have in December the number for next year, and this is going to be a lower number than this year. We are still working on the other capital allocation alternatives.

As Beto said in the beginning, at this point, we are not seeing any potential transformation initiative that could change, in a material way, our direction of deleveraging the company. The buybacks will continue to be an option for us. We have an open program that we still have, I think, something like 28 million shares open to be bought.

This will be completed in the timeframe of the program, which still has more than 12 months to be completed. We're not gonna anticipate to the market at what speed we're gonna execute the buybacks. This will depend on the cash flow generation of the company vis-a-vis its valuation on the market.

What you can expect in terms of capital allocation is the company to be to reduce CapEx to reduce indebtedness in the coming months and to be very selective, as we always are, in terms of selecting new investments. On the pulp production side, the announcement that we made a few weeks ago has, in the background, the current stage of the market prices.

This is a decision that we made for the year of 2024. Even if the price changes from now on, it's going to be very hard to change that, because this is a very long chain that we have to program since the harvesting activity up to the delivery to the client. So I think for 2024, that's the number. For 2025, we are still working on that. I would just say that for the current market scenario, this is the decision we have, but of course, this will depend on the expectations.

Jon Brandt (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Rodolfo Angeli, from JP Morgan. Okay, left the queue. Our next question comes from Leo Correa, from BTG Pactual. Please, Mr. Correa, your microphone is open.

Leo Correa (Associate Partner and Equity Research Analyst)

Hello, gentlemen. Can you hear me?

Marcelo Bacci (CFO)

Yes.

Operator (participant)

Yeah.

Leo Correa (Associate Partner and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, perfect. Yeah, so a couple questions on my side. The first one for Beto. Beto, in your initial remarks, I guess the message was super clear to us at least, that you're trying to convey a message of deleveraging, and you're also trying to convey a message that there's no big M&A transformational moves in the pipeline.

So I just wanted to check with you, I mean, if an understanding is right, that Suzano will continue to pursue these smaller bolt-on acquisitions like you did with Pactiv and Lenzing. And the game plan is to continue to obviously assess market opportunities, but these will be, let's say, in the billion-dollar range at most.

I mean, I just wanted to, to understand exactly what you mean when you say no transformational moves, because I guess the market is obviously concerned on bigger M&A at Suzano. So if you can quantify a bit, what you mean with that, I think it would be very helpful for everyone.

The second point, on market pulp cash costs, right? I mean, I think it was super clear, the explanation on why, the numbers are a bit higher this quarter. And I guess with obviously with Cerrado ramping up and with, I mean, much lower pulp cash cost platform, being consolidated in your overall cash, cost numbers, these numbers would decline going forward.

I just wanted to confirm, Aires, you mentioned something in the single-digit range of reduction for the fourth quarter. How are you viewing this for 2025? I mean, what is the potential for further cash cost reductions in pulp? I think that would be very helpful if you can add a bit clarity on that for 2025. Thank you very much.

Beto Abreu (CEO)

Yeah, thank you for the question. Maybe I should start with the Aires, please complete if you want, but on the cash cost, we see 2025 in the same good level as Aires said regarding the next quarter. What do we have for the next quarter, in the end of the day, is the company delivering exactly what was planned for Ribas project, which was the 900,000 tons in the first, let's say, 12 months of operation. We are completely confident that this target will be delivered. That will help us in terms of a cash cost next year, even further.

But I think, Aires already gave us a kind of, let's say, vision regarding that. Going back to the capital allocation process, I think you, you read in a very clear way. What I'm trying to say is that we are not planning any big ticket movement in the near future. That's what I'm trying to say. It's we have a lot to do with the assets that we already brought to the portfolio.

We must extract all the value from Cerrado at this time. We have all the potential to keep deleveraging the business. And we do not see any movement that can change significantly or in important way, the the plan that we have to deleverage in the company. So that's what I'm trying to say.

And I think Marcelo also was very clear regarding liquidity. We think, with this scenario, the level of liquidity that we have in the company is maybe higher. It's very high, it's higher than we need, considering the plan that we have for the near future. So that's it.

And regarding the way that we, that you mentioned, the movement on U.S., the bolt-on strategy is something that seems a very, let's say, healthy way to move in the U.S. market, as you mentioned. So I think this is what we see regarding transformation move in the near future.

Aires Galhardo (VP Operations)

I want to comment on an addition, that said, we are very confident that you are able to deliver to 2024 a double digit reduction when we compare with the third quarter that you have the results of cash costs. Considering, of course, the same level of FX and bleach price, that's very important and impacts our costs.

But considering the full ramp up in Ribas, the mix of production on level of the year, we are very confident we then should double to single digit. Of course, we have specific quarters with more challenge. We have downtimes predicted to Três Lagoas line one and two, and Ribas inspection shutdown.

With six months, that's very important to evaluate the assets, and have the confidence to pull the campaign of 12 months. But what we have noticed in the asset and the results. Until this moment, that we are running very well, in a good pace, and perspectives are good. Just to clarify, a Double 11 year to 2025, in comparison with the third quarter of 2024.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Caio Ribeiro, from Bank of America. Please, Mr. Ribeiro, your microphone is open.

Caio Ribeiro (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Great, thank you for the opportunity. So my first question is on the wood chip market in Asia, right? Where we note availability of wood chips has been picking up particularly in China, you know, as a result of the downturn in the property market. There's also this force of farmland policy.

And while we note you know integrated paper supply additions are happening, wood chip import prices into China haven't really increased recently, which also suggests you know that domestic wood chip availability has increased, right? So I just wanted to get your views, if possible, right, on whether you perceive this to be a structural phenomenon for the industry, right? This increase in availability of wood chips in China.

What impact the addition of this integrated capacity that we see, you know, year after year in China will have on the industry cost curve and the demand outlook? And then my second question is more on the softwood market and the implications there for hardwood. With some players right in the softwood market already attempting price hikes lately, do you perceive that we're at an inflection point for softwood, right?

And what implications do you see for hardwood, if that's the case? Is there room for hikes, you know, in the coming months for hardwood as well, or do you see substitution into hardwood, at the very least favoring, you know, a demand recovery for that fiber as well? Thank you.

Leonardo Grimaldi (VP Pulp)

Caio, this is Leo here. Thanks for your questions. Trying to organize myself here to be able to answer all of them. First, regarding your question on wood chips into China or for Chinese production. You are correct, there is more availability in the short term that we had foreseen or that was planned, and that, in our view, is due to two major reasons.

First of it is the housing market downturn, and obviously, that released a lot of wood that was originally used for furniture, which is now being used for other products such as pulp and papers. Second is a program in China that we are monitoring, which is a conversion of planted tree area to agriculture, and this program will last until the end of2025.

We don't think it's structural. We believe that in the future, once these two factors have leveled out, China will be more dependent on imported wood as it was before. As you know, imported wood reached 71% of the pulp wood consumed in China, and now it has reduced to 60%. Obviously, this difference being conquered by local Chinese wood, but we believe that the trend should be reestablished once we see these two variables coming back to normality.

The impacts of verticalization, as we have seen, during now the Q4 and the beginning of next year, we have three or four important paper producers who are backward verticalizing. We are gonna give a lot of details on that in our Suzano Day, and I actually trying to forecast that, and not only for the end of this year in 2025, but until 2028 as well.

But obviously, they will have a push in the pulp demand to market. But there are variables which are very uncertain, which is the exact start up date of these projects, then obviously, the ramp up rhythms of these projects which will start verticalizing.

All of them, just to make it clear, that were announced for Q4, 2024 and onwards, are fully verticalized. There is no pulp drying capacity. So, they will affect us, not as competitors into pulp, but by eventually reducing the demand side of the equation. Now, they're all high-cost production, right? So, if they are gonna be based on either Chinese or imported wood into China, the cost base of this new addition will be high. We expect them to be all over $550-$600 cash cost, I mean, pulp cash cost.

Meaning that, as we have seen in several other cycles, once pulp prices get below these levels, these guys, these new volumes will also now come into market to buy pulp, creating and generating additional demand for pulp as well. Now, I'm gonna move into the softwood and hardwood part of your question. Well, we believe softwood is or has reached an inflection point.

We are tracking very closely what's going on in softwood into China. As I mentioned in my speech, the price decreases that we have seen in July were led by softwood. They were first happening on softwood and then followed by us in hardwood.

But at this mid-$700 price delivered to China, we notice, and as per our estimates, several producers, Canadian producers, Nordic European producers, are already below breakeven delivered into China. So I believe this will force an inflection point, and that's why we see this $20 price increase announcement of several of them into China coming into October and November.

The first reflection of this move will be helping us even further in terms of fiber substitution. As you know, the price difference today is $200 on a net basis between softwood and hardwood, and I believe if they are successful in implementing this price increase, this can increase further.

Obviously, as you can imagine, we have several customers who are coming to our teams in China and Europe and U.S., in Brazil, for support in terms of knowledge and guidance, in terms of how we can support them in this fiber substitution and migration from softwood to hardwood. The first effect will be an additional demand for hardwood.

Regarding your question, if this would be an inflection point for hardwood prices, I think it's too early to say. As I mentioned in my speech, I believe we're either at the bottom or very close to it, but I think we need to let a little bit of time go by so that we can define if this is a turning point or not. The first effect will certainly be additional demand.

Caio Ribeiro (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

That's super clear. Thank you very much, Leo.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Daniel Sasson, from Itaú BBA. Please, Mr. Sasson, your microphone's open.

Daniel Sasson (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you so much. Good morning, everyone. Most of my questions have been answered. Maybe just a follow-up from a previous question. You mentioned, Leo, these semi-integration movements in China and the potential new capacity additions coming from them. Can you please shed some light on potentially marketable projects in Asia?

I know that there's a lack of visibility or transparency, let's put it this way, but whatever you guys have or forecast, for instance, for OKI's expansion, I think that could help us to build our supply/demand models. That could be great. And piling up on the discussion regarding wood chips, we know that OKI I took maybe four or five years to fully ramp up.

Do you think that, despite the increased availability of wood chips because of the downturn in the housing property sector, as you mentioned, there is this chance that this project is gonna be delayed, or at least the ramp-up is gonna take much longer than would be normal for a project, like that? Thank you so much.

Leonardo Grimaldi (VP Pulp)

Hi, Daniel. Thanks for your question. As I mentioned in my speech, I guess this is extremely recent news coming from prestigious consultants to our business, which we just got earlier this week, which is a significant delay in OKI II project. As you know, and as some of you or your colleagues have stated, the original start-up date for line one was March. This is now being pushed to November 2025, and line two, as of now, going into 2026.

The information that we have in the project is that it's supposed to be a verticalized project to begin with, at 50% integration and verticalization with every board over 1 billion tons, printing and writing, believe it or not, and also tissue, all of that in Indonesia.

But this, again, is all based on market information, which I believe you have the same access that I have as well. And up to now, I'm just talking about startup, right? So now we see the significant delay on startup, and then there is a question of how much wood will be available and what will be the ramp-up curves. I totally agree with you.

We in our BI area tracked obviously the startup of OKI I, and it took four to five years, I guess more 5 than 4, to reach full capacity, and that can be the case again OKI II. It's hard to say again. It's always hard to estimate in too much detail or what's going to happen in Indonesia or in China when it comes to pulp production due to such a difficult position in terms of wood supply, but we expect that based on the previous track records, something similar could happen as well for OKI II.

Daniel Sasson (Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks, Leo. Sorry, you mentioned 55% of the OKI line would be integrated. Is that right? And then maybe the second thing still on this front, do you have an estimate on the production cash cost of the recent projects in China, for instance, Liansheng? Do you have an estimate on the current cost base right now? Thank you.

Leonardo Grimaldi (VP Pulp)

Okay. Yeah. So, OKI, again, Daniel, based on market information, which we have read or received through our BI teams, either in China or in Brazil, is that the second project for OKI to start will be 50% verticalized into paperboard, printing and writing papers and tissue. So this is to start 50% verticalized 50% market pulp. Okay?

Daniel Sasson (Equity Research Analyst)

Perfect.

Leonardo Grimaldi (VP Pulp)

So that's the info in OKI II. Regarding Chinese cash costs, based on this unforeseen availability of wood related to the two factors that I mentioned previously, we estimate that the Chinese cash cost today is close to $500, is maybe ranging from $490-$510, which, as you see or can note, is lower than our marginal cash costs scenarios delivered to China, which is at $560-$580.

Showing that at this time of the production curves and with wood costs to different markets, the marginal cost producers are not Chinese, rather are other Asian, even Americans or Europeans delivered to China. Chinese producers today, it is our view that have this, I would say $50 advantage of cost below marginal cash costs, but still at $500 range.

Daniel Sasson (Equity Research Analyst)

Perfect, Leo. Thank you so much for the very detailed answer. Helps us a lot. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Marcio Farid from Goldman Sachs. Please, Mr. Farid, your microphone is open.

Marcio Farid (VP and Analyst)

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for, for the opportunity. My first question may be to, to Fabio. Fabio, thinking about the recently acquired assets, my understanding is that profitability was not clear, when you first acquired the assets, and now that you have taken over, right?

I think, I mean, the idea... I wanted to understand what are, what are the initial findings so far, in terms of, how the new operations are, in terms of, obviously potentially early days, but, what's the future of those assets? What has Suzano done in terms of, improving the operations and eventually expand as well into the U.S., and your first assessment of the, of the U.S. markets, that would be great.

And secondly, maybe you know, going back to the decision to restore 4% of the volumes, I think I had a similar question the second quarter, but my understanding is that, I mean, the cycles are becoming shorter, right? You're talking about six months up and six months down, and a 12-month decision feels like it's always gonna be lagging, right?

Prices were at the highs of $750 at the end of last year. You didn't have the opportunity to raise production because you had, earlier last year, decided to cut the 4%, and then prices fall again, and obviously the decision was basically maintained. So at 12 months, the decision feels like it's always gonna be lagging, the...

A cycle that tends to be shorter and shorter by nature, right? So how should we think about that? I mean, how do you reconcile the nature of the cycle with more longer-term decision, which seems to make a lot of sense from a strategic perspective as well? Thank you.

Fabio Almeida de Oliveira (VP Paper and Packaging)

So, good morning, Marcio, and thank you for your question. It's Fabio here. I'm gonna take the first one about Pactiv. Just to briefly update, we have been here. I'm currently in Pine Bluff, sitting here at the mill, as we speak. We have been here since beginning of October, when we transitioned the business from Pactiv to Suzano.

And, as you know, this is an old mill, built in the 1950's, and the mill, Pactiv was more concerned about its converting business. So the mill lacks today a good maintenance. You know, it needs to be well taken care of, and that's what Suzano knows how to do. So there's a turnaround story here for us, on the industrial side.

And we already have started with, you know, a short-term, medium-term plans, you know, to bring this mill back to the level of operational stability that we believe we can achieve. The first signs are very positive. A good sign is that, you know, the raw materials basket here, especially the cost of wood, it's very competitive.

So there's abundant pine and also at a very competitive price in the state of Arkansas. I've been visiting some of the forests and talking to people, and this is a good start. You know, gives us, you know, good hopes that we can have a very competitive operation here in the near future.

So right now, our focus has been on focusing on the people here, the transition, focusing on taking care of our customers and suppliers, and also the community that we interact here at Pine Bluff. And you know, putting all the efforts necessary to do the turnaround on the industrial area, focusing on maintenance and also on operation stability.

But the perspective is a positive one. Regarding the market, it's, as you know, the mill it's serving the liquid packaging market here in North America. It's one of the large suppliers for that, the specific market space. It's a good market of long-term contracts and also good prices. And it's very stable in terms of demand and price-wise as well.

We're looking at opportunities to expand the portfolio to serve other markets, like cup stock and food service. We do have a good product for that. We already sell a little bit to these other market space, and we want to increase. As starting in 2025, we have plans to increase our participation in this market space, which gives us more flexibility and also we understand that we can get even better margins serving these other market spaces. So it's in a short view, Marcio, we're excited.

We have a plan here for the turnaround and the industrial turnaround of the mill, and also looking at a strategy to increase our participation in different market spaces from Pine Bluff and Waynesville.

Marcelo Bacci (CFO)

Marcio, this is Marcelo. Speaking about the question on the production cuts. Of course, there's a lag between when we take the decision and when we can implement it because of the nature of our supply chain, but there's no other way to manage this than to look constantly at what's happening in the market, reach our conclusions about the trends on prices, and then make the decisions on the production.

The lag will always be there, but on the other hand, we have our tools also to try to anticipate what's gonna happen in the market, so for the time being, the decision is that one, and we are working on the scenario for next year. And if we have a major change in the middle, we always have the flexibility to adapt.

Marcio Farid (VP and Analyst)

Great. Thanks, Fabio. Thanks so much.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Rafael Barcellos, from Bradesco BBI. Please, Mr. Barcellos, your microphone's open.

Rafael Barcellos (Head of LatAm Metals and Mining, Pulp and Paper, and Cement and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hello, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. About my first question, I wanted to go back to your capital allocation strategy. Beto, I know that you mentioned during the presentation that Suzano will not do any transformational movement, but I just wanted to discuss it in more detail.

For example, after the acquisitions of Lenzing and Pactiv, could you please give us more details on which type and size of the assets that you are now looking for? Other than that, also given these lack of big M&A initiatives in the pipeline, I mean, I wanted to understand whether the company could bring a new dividend policy in the future. Then my second question is about your investment in Lenzing.

I know that it's still quite recent to ask this type of question, but you are now probably following Lenzing closely. So could you please comment on your thoughts on how you could generate synergies with these assets in the future, of course, in a scenario that you acquired the control in the future, and how do you see these assets inside Suzano's portfolio? Thank you.

Beto Abreu (CEO)

So, Rafael, thank you for your question. This is Beto. Let me take the first question regarding the capital allocation, and then, as you know, during the month of October, we already have the two board members, which today it's Marcelo and Carlos already sitting, they already took their position in the board of Lenzing.

So I will hand over then to Marcelo, so then he can share with us his first impression regarding the business, since we already have the first board meeting at Lenzing. But regarding the capital allocation, it's very simple.

What I said is that Suzano is not going to any, let's say, transformational move. What I'm trying to say is that any kind of ticket, the size of ticket that we might do in the, let's say, near future, will not impact on the important way our declining trend in terms of leverage. So that's what I'm trying to do, what I'm trying to say. It's very simple.

It's we have these two movements, Lenzing investment, which is for us, it's time to extract value from those. And again, a bolt-on strategy is something that we can pursue in the future, again, in the medium and long term, keeping our trend of reducing our leverage. So that's it.

Marcelo Bacci (CFO)

This is Marcelo speaking. Just commenting on, we don't foresee any change in our dividend policy as a result of this moment that we live today, and we need to keep in mind that our cash flow generation is volatile by nature, and we have to deal with that in managing the capital structure of the company.

In relation to Lenzing, we took our position as a shareholder, and as Beto mentioned, now started to participate in the board meetings of Lenzing. We don't have a direct impact on the management of the company. We will be a shareholder with two seats on the board.

We understand that Lenzing is a company with an incredible reputation and an incredible portfolio of products, very high technology in the sector and well-recognized by the clients. So the access that the company has to the most important clients in the world, the power of its brands and the, you know, the reputation of the company is great.

It has a very important industrial footprint, and it has to work, and as it has been working on improving its operational efficiency, reducing costs, and becoming more efficient over time. This is the journey that we will embark and try to help the company to continue in that direction. And, I think it's too early to go into more details.

What they have been trying to do, I think, is in the right direction, and it is going to be up to us to try to speed up that process and extract value. More important than that, I think starting now, we have between year one, after completion of one year and up to the completion of the fourth year, we are going to have a window to decide whether or not we want to increase our participation and become the main shareholder of the company.

We're gonna take our time in this beginning to understand better, of course, the industrial part in the beginning of the process. The dissolving pulp part is very similar to what we do, but from that point onwards, it's a completely different process, both on the industrial side and also on the commercial side.

We need to learn before we make the more important decision that we're gonna have to make in the coming months, which is whether or not we want to become controlling shareholders of Lenzing.

Rafael Barcellos (Head of LatAm Metals and Mining, Pulp and Paper, and Cement and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Super clear. Thank you, Beto and Bacci.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Lucas Laghi from XP. Please, Mr. Laghi, your microphone is open.

Lucas Laghi (VP of Equity Research)

Good morning, everyone. Congratulations on the results. I would like to go back with a follow-up question on the integration trends in China. I mean, Leo, you provide a very good color on the local availability of wood chips in China, but I would like to go back to the imported parts of wood, especially thinking of like low-cost supplier regions like Vietnam, and already closing the peak levels that we saw in 2022.

But when we look at the wood chip import prices, they're still significantly lower versus compared to the peak that we saw two years ago. So my question is, I mean, how do you see this availability of wood chips in this low-cost suppliers of wood to China?

If it's reasonable to think that the incremental volumes to fuel this integration expansion in China in the upcoming months should come from high-cost suppliers of wood like Australia and other regions rather than a low-cost region as Vietnam. I mean, is it reasonable to expect that Vietnam is reaching its limits to provide further wood chips to China and increase these expansion trends that we are seeing from these verticalized players? That would be my question. Thank you.

Leonardo Grimaldi (VP Pulp)

Hi, Lucas, this is Leo here. Thank you very much for your question. First, I would like to point that Vietnam is lower cost, not low cost, right? By the end of the day, yes, it is lower than wood from Australia delivered to China, but it's still will bring cash costs of any Chinese producer to the low five hundreds to mid-five hundreds cash cost, regardless of the difference of peak to cycle to the lows that we see today.

Today, we see a bit more availability in Vietnam, and despite growth in imports of imported wood as well, as you probably know, last year, there was a decline of almost 30% of imported wood into China. That's when we saw the bulk of this local Chinese wood being used in the short term. This year, we already see a recovery of imports again, now growing almost 30%, but still a bit lower than the levels that we saw in 2022. So we see space still of some Southeast Asia wood supply to China.

But we believe, or our base scenario is that once we have the two variables that I mentioned, which is housing market reestablishing and the program that we see today in China of forest land into agriculture, which will end by the end of 2025, these structural changes will make this verticalized pulp to paper production in China or Chinese market pulp players more and more dependent of imported wood.

And then we believe that we're gonna see a higher cost scenario compared to what it is today. But Vietnam should still be one of the major sources to comply with the growth of demand of wood from China.

Jon Brandt (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

That's perfect, Leo. Thank you for the answer.

Operator (participant)

The Q&A session is over. We would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Beto Abreu for his final remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

Beto Abreu (CEO)

Yeah, thank you. I just want to remember that we're gonna have our Suzano Investor Day on December 12th. Also, our visit to the Ribas project on December 13th. I'd like to thank you for being here with us on the call today, and for your interest in Suzano. And as always, our IR team remains available for any additional question you may have, and I wish you all a great day. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

The Suzano S.A. Third Quarter of 2024 Conference Call is concluded. The Investor Relations Department is available to answer further questions that you may have. Thank you, and have a wonderful day.