Savers Value Village - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon, and welcome to Savers Value Village's conference call to discuss financial results for the 3Q ending 30 September 2023. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. Please note that this call is being recorded, and a replay of this call and related materials will be available on the company's investor relations website. The comments made during this call and the Q&A that follows are copyrighted by the company and cannot be reproduced without written authorization from the company. Certain comments made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements, which are subject to significant risks and uncertainties that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from expectations or historical performance.

Please review the disclosure on forward-looking statements, including the company's in the company's earnings release and filings with the SEC for a discussion on these risks and uncertainties. Please be advised that the statements are current only as of the date of this call. While the company may choose to update these statements in the future, it is under no obligation to do so unless required by applicable law or regulation. The company may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of each of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's earnings and SEC filings. Joining from management on today's call are Mark Walsh, Chief Executive Officer, Jay Stasz, Chief Financial Officer, and Jubran Tanious, President and COO. Mr. Walsh, you may now go ahead.

Mark Walsh (CEO)

Thank you for joining us today and for your interest in Savers. We had a strong 3Q and are pleased with our performance. Constant currency net sales increased 5%. Comparable store sales increased 3.7% on higher transactions, and despite a $1.5 million negative impact from foreign currency, we grew Adjusted EBITDA by more than 6% to $91 million. Donations and supply of goods remained very strong in the quarter, and for the first time in Savers' 70-year history, we reached over 5 million members in our loyalty program, an increase of 10% over the 3Q last year. Our 3Q performance demonstrates our ability to deliver strong margin and EBITDA, underpinned by an operating philosophy that governs our unique, vertically integrated company. Let me explain this a bit more.

In the middle of 2019, Savers moved away from a volume-based operating paradigm to a data environment with one goal: maximizing EBITDA. We knew that by finding the optimal mix between price, cost, and turnover, we could drive improved profit margins and strong, sustainable cash flow. To do so, we refocused the organization around productivity measures and started more thoroughly analyzing data for every item we collected, processed, and sold. Unlike conventional retailers, we don't pre-order products months in advance from a vendor or manufacturer. Instead, we accept donated goods on behalf of our nonprofit partners, and our cost of these goods is made up by two primary components: the price that we pay our nonprofit partners for the donated items themselves and the labor costs we incur to collect, source, grade, and merchandise these items for sale.

Labor is the biggest component of our cost of goods, and this accounts for roughly 60% of the total product costs. While we accept donated items every day, we have the ability to accelerate or decelerate our processing volumes based on the directional demand trends at retail. This does two things. First, it keeps our retail inventory levels in balance with demand, and second, it better matches our expenses to our sales, both of which help maximize productivity, EBITDA, and cash flow. The result has been more than a 700 basis point improvement in gross margin and a 1,000 basis point improvement in EBITDA margin from 2019 to 2022. An important driver of productivity, unique to thrift, is a metric called Sales Yield.

Sales yield is calculated by dividing retail sales dollars by the number of pounds processed in any given period on a currency-neutral and comparable store growth basis. Sales yield was $1.50 in the 3Q. This was up from $1.42 in the 3Q last year, and $1.08 in 2019. To put it simply, we are generating higher sales for every pound of product that we process, which is being driven by our productivity gains from structural changes made to the business. It is also a reflection of the strong trends we are seeing on the supply side of the business. Donations were very strong in the 3Q. On the demand side of the equation, we saw two different trends in the quarter.

Demand for hard goods remained strong and consistent throughout the period, while demand for soft goods was strong in the H1 of the quarter and moderated a bit in September. As a result, we stepped our soft goods processing volumes up in the H1 of the quarter and down in the latter part of the quarter to align our expenses to revenue and deliver $91 million in adjusted EBITDA. With an average unit retail of under $5, our value proposition is strong. Clearly, value is an important dynamic in the consumer landscape. However, as everyone is very aware, the macro environment is uncertain right now, as inflation remains high on essential everyday items, such as food and housing. With consumers managing their discretionary spending, we are monitoring both demand and processing very closely to align expenses with sales and maintain profitability.

Turning to new stores, in line with our expectations, we opened 3 new stores in the 3Q and are on track to open a total of 12 this year. We continue to target 22 new stores in 2024. As a reminder, our new stores generally take 3-4 years in Canada and 4-5 years in the U.S. to reach mature processing efficiency, donation volume, and retail demand. The new store classes of 2022 and 2023 are performing in line with expectations. There is a tremendous amount of white space in front of us. We are addressing that opportunity methodically. We continue to build the organizational muscle in accelerating new store cadence, and our early results provide bullish overtones to continued success.

In conclusion, we feel good about our 3Q results, the quality and quantity of our donations, and our ability to execute our business going forward. We have made significant structural changes to the business that allow us to maximize EBITDA through focusing productivity measures that align our inventory, processing levels, labor expenses with demand trends. We know this is very different from most other retailers, and it is why we are so confident in our ability to drive profitable growth at scale. I want to thank our dedicated and hardworking team members who execute the business and serve our customers every day. Our mission is to grow the reuse economy and make secondhand second nature, thereby benefiting people, planet, and profit. With that, I will turn the call over to Jay to discuss our financial results. Jay?

Jay Stasz (CFO)

Thanks, Mark. Before I begin, let me remind you that our IPO closed on 3 July , and the related accounting for the transaction was recorded in our 3Q results. Specifically, we recorded $48.3 million of non-recurring stock compensation expense related to the IPO in the salaries, wages, and benefits line of the income statement. The stock comp expense obviously impacted our effective tax rate in the quarter as well, as this was not tax-deductible. With that said, let me review our 3Q numbers. Net sales increased 3.8% - $392.7 million. On a constant currency basis, net sales increased 5%. Our sales growth was driven by a comparable store sales increase of 3.7% in new store openings.

During the quarter, we saw the strongest demand in July and August, with somewhat softer sales trends in September. As we transitioned from summer to fall goods in September, we believe that the above-normal temperatures in the U.S. and Canada impacted our soft goods sales, and we moderated our processing levels accordingly. Sales of hard goods remained strong and consistent throughout the quarter. Looking at our sales by country, U.S. retail net sales increased 3.6% - $200.1 million, and comparable store sales increased 3.3%, driven by growth in transactions. Canada retail net sales increased 4.4% to $163.5 million, which included an unfavorable impact of foreign currency. Canada comparable store sales increased 4.3%, also driven by growth in transaction volume.

We opened 3 new stores in the 3Q and a total of 12 new stores over the past 12 months, ending the 3Q with 321 stores. We are pleased with our new store performance, which is in line with our expectations and our underwriting model. Cost of merchandise sold as a percentage of sales was flat to last year at 40.3%. Higher labor and material costs were offset by lower freight expenses. Labor costs increased primarily from higher wage rates, growth in comparable store transactions, and an increase in the number of stores. Salaries, wages, and benefits expense increased to $116.1 million, due primarily to the $48.3 million in IPO-related stock compensation expense.

Excluding this expense, salaries, wages, and benefits was $67.8 million and declined as a percentage of net sales by 70 basis points to 17.3%. Increases in wages were more than offset by benefits of the self-checkout kiosks. SG&A, as a percentage of sales, was flat year-over-year and continued to be well controlled. Depreciation and amortization increased 18.6% - $15.9 million due to capitalized expenses related primarily to our strategic initiatives, including new stores, centralized processing centers, automated book processors, and self-checkout kiosks, as well as maintenance CapEx. Interest expense increased to $18.7 million, primarily due to overall higher interest rates on our debt.

Net loss for the quarter was $15.6 million, or a loss of $0.10 per diluted share, compared to net income of $15.5 million or $0.11 per diluted share a year ago. Adjusted net income for the 3Q was $26.5 million or $0.16 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA increased 6.3% - $91 million, and our adjusted EBITDA margin increased 60 basis points to 23.2%. Included in adjusted EBITDA is a foreign currency headwind of $1.5 million due to changes in currency rates. Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $125.3 million in cash. For the first nine months of the year, we generated $104.4 million of cash from operating activities.

We completed our initial public offering of 18.8 million shares at a price of $18 per share on 3 July . Together with cash on hand, the company used the net proceeds from its IPO to redeem $55 million of notes and to repay $252.4 million of outstanding borrowings under the term loan facility, as well as accrued interest and premium under the term loan in the notes. These transactions resulted in a loss on extinguishment of debt of $10.6 million in the quarter. At the end of the 3Q, our total borrowings were $818.3 million, and our net leverage, based on a trailing twelve-month Adjusted EBITDA, was 2.2x.

Lastly, let me make a few comments about recent demand and processing trends and how we are thinking about our financial outlook for the remainder of the year. As Mark indicated, our business is very different than most retailers. We are constantly receiving goods through the form of donations to our charity partners in the stores and are able to manage our floor inventory levels and production expenses by adjusting processing to demand trends. This allows us to better align our labor expenses to sales and maintain profitability. We lowered processing in the back half of the 3Q based on some fluctuations in September for fall and winter soft goods that we believe were weather-related. While we have seen a pickup in demand from the September lows where weather has normalized, the pickup has been modest and varied between markets.

With the continued inflationary pressures and uncertainties in the broader macro environment, we believe it is prudent to take a measured approach and closely manage our processing levels to maintain profitability in the fourth quarter. We also note that the decreases in the Canadian dollar currency rate over the past three months adds an incremental headwind to sales and EBITDA in the fourth quarter. As a result, we are guiding our fourth quarter comparable store sales to a range of flat to +1% and our fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA to approximately $80 million. Our updated guidance assumes a lower Canadian dollar exchange rate of 0.725, which negatively impacts our fourth quarter sales and adjusted EBITDA estimates by approximately $6 million and $1 million, respectively.

For the full year 2023 sales are now projected to be approximately $1.49 billion, as compared to the previous guidance of approximately $1.51 billion, which includes the negative FX impact that we experienced in the 3Q and our revised FX impact in the fourth quarter from the lower exchange rates. Full year 2023 Adjusted EBITDA is still expected to be $320 million, unchanged from previous guidance and once again inclusive of the revised FX impacts. Other guidance figures for the full year 2023 are contained in the outlook section of the earnings release. A few additional items to keep in mind when modeling out quarters in full year.

In the fourth quarter, we expect to incur IPO-related stock comp expense of approximately $21 million, which will be included in the salaries, wages, and benefits line on the P&L. This is non-recurring stock comp that will be excluded from adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income. Our full-year net income guidance assumes an effective tax rate of 44%. Our GAAP effective tax rate will continue to move around in the next few quarters as a result of the application of IRS Section 162(m) as a public company, as it relates to our IPO stock comp and the dividend-related bonuses paid in Q1, as well as foreign currency gains or losses associated with the term loan held in Canada.

Our full-year adjusted net income guidance assumes a statutory tax rate of 29% and a foreign exchange rate of 0.725 for the Canadian dollar. Post-IPO, we had approximately 160.5 million shares outstanding, and we are estimating a full-year diluted share count of approximately 157 million shares. That concludes our prepared remarks. We would now like to open the call for questions.

Operator (participant)

We are now opening the floor for the question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star and number one on your telephone keypad. Our first question comes from Matthew Boss, from JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Matthew Boss (Equity Research Analyst)

Great, thanks. So Mark, maybe higher level, could you just help and maybe speak to any notable trends in customer behavior, or just elaborate on the cadence of traffic trends that you saw as the 3Q progressed, and maybe just anything in October, or just drivers underlying your flat to 1% comp outlook for the fourth quarter?

Mark Walsh (CEO)

Yeah. So look, I think the 3Q started with strong transaction growth in both Canada and the U.S.. Baskets have been flattish enterprise-wide throughout the quarter. We do believe some of that slowdown in the U.S. and Canada in September, and that's continued into early October, was weather-related. We've had unusually warm temperatures across both countries that drove down demand for traditional shoulder season goods. We've got internal analysis that shows highly negative correlated statistical analysis when you look at high temperature versus transactions. It's like a jigsaw. One indicator that also we point to is the dynamic that our demand for hard goods has remained constant consistent with the earlier year trends, which also points to that soft good shoulder season issue that I mentioned. We just...

We're remaining cautious about the buying patterns as UPTs remain depressed and from our vantage point, consumers are sticking with their budget. Ultimately...

... we remain very bullish about the overall sector, guidance for the thrift industry. We love where we are from a value positioning perspective. And I'd just like to reiterate, we continue to run the business to maximize EBITDA, generating growth, enabling free cash flow to invest in stores, supply, and inorganic opportunities. And it's really a unique model that will power growth at scale.

Matthew Boss (Equity Research Analyst)

Great. And then, maybe Jay, could you just elaborate on the flexibility with the model? Meaning, as we think about labor and processing costs in a potentially softer top-line backdrop, are there efficiency opportunities, multi-year, or just levers that can be pulled if same-store sales were to be below that leverage point, which I think is 3%-4% same-store sales?

Jay Stasz (CFO)

Right. Yeah, Matt, and thanks. And really, I mean, the biggest lever that we talk about is obviously modulating our processing levels so that it matches demand. So our labor expense, which is in COGS, which is the biggest component of our COGS, really ties into demand and our sales. And by doing that, we can capture a lot of that sales shortfall and keep our EBITDA whole. Now, look, if we had a wild swing in a comp, you know, I'm not saying we could capture 100%, but we could get a lot of it. And then we have things below the line, below COGS, that, you know, we're very focused on managing our operating expenses.

Cause our goal, like we've done here, is, you know, producing strong EBITDA, maintaining our EBITDA, even with soft sales, and that's embedded in the guidance for Q4, and that's something we could also carry on next year.

Matthew Boss (Equity Research Analyst)

It's a great color. Best of luck.

Jay Stasz (CFO)

Thanks, Matt.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Brooke Roach from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Brooke Roach (VP, Equity Research)

Good afternoon, and thank you for taking our question. I was hoping you could elaborate on the growth that you're seeing in Sales yield today and the strategic initiatives that are driving that unlock. And then as a follow-up, have you seen any signs of increased price sensitivity of your customer that would suggest that some of the pricing optimization strategies you've unlocked in the business may need to be reinvested in driving value for that customer in this more challenging macro backdrop?

Mark Walsh (CEO)

I'll answer the first question. I'll turn it over to Jubran on sales yield, Brooke.

Jubran Tanious (President and COO)

Thank you for the question. We have not seen any impact on price. None whatsoever.

Yeah, I think that's right, Brooke. And I would say when it comes to sales yield, you know, we are always looking at price with regard to item ratio. And again, the definition of item ratio being the number of items that we put out versus the number of items that we sell within a particular category. So when we think about price, we think about reacting to what is selling really well with the customer, and we take price very surgically at the category and the subcategory level. And that's an ongoing process that we do that's not just at the category level, but also geographically, regionally, if you will. So I think that helps in sales yield. I think our ability to manipulate space. You know, at the top of the call, Mark talked about unseasonably warm weather as we transitioned into fall.

Well, one of the things that we're able to do in being nimble and seeing space to sales and manipulating space to sales is that as you transition across a shoulder season, and you would normally be shrinking your summer set, expanding the cold weather items, that's gonna look a little bit different each year, depending on how the actual fall weather comes in. And so we can, we can walk that line and meet the customer where they're at, all the while protecting sales yield. So if short-sleeve items are selling better a little bit later into the season, we'll keep them on our floor and be more nimble. So there's a, there's a lot that goes into it. And the last that I would say on sales yield is, and Mark mentioned this earlier, very robust on-site donation performance in both countries.

What we know over the years in measuring this is that when the donor takes the time and care to bring their goods to our donation centers and our GreenDrops, generally will create a higher Sales Yield in our stores versus the rest of the supply, if you will. I think all those things taken together are what help drive Sales Yield.

Brooke Roach (VP, Equity Research)

Thanks, Jubran. And then maybe a follow-up for Jay. Can you speak a little bit to the labor costs that you see as you look ahead in the model? Are there any additional initiatives that you have to optimize labor efficiency in both the short term and the medium term?

Jay Stasz (CFO)

Yeah, well, we were constantly looking for efficiencies. I mean, obviously, the self-checkout was an initiative that we completed this year, and that is paying dividends. We're seeing nice expense leverage in our payroll in the front side of the stores from the self-checkout. We're continually monitoring efficiencies of our processing teams as well, trying to find that perfect balance between the level of processing and the efficiencies to drive that. So absolutely. I mean, we're constantly sharpening that saw. As we think about wages, obviously, we've invested in wages in the last couple of years, very significantly. We're up probably 6% year-over-year. And we expect from a labor pool, while there's still gonna be some challenges, we would expect that labor investment to moderate slightly looking forward.

Mark Walsh (CEO)

Yeah, and Brooke, I'll jump in. It is all about tying labor to processing, modulating that labor, those number of hours we utilize to process the amount of goods that we put on the sales floor. Our ability to do that and that vertical supply chain really drives efficiency. And you see it over the last quarter. We're able to do that in the H2 of the quarter. We feel very bullish about our ability to do that moving forward.

Brooke Roach (VP, Equity Research)

Thanks so much. I'll pass it on.

Mark Walsh (CEO)

Thanks, Brooke.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Randal Konik from Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Randal Konik (Managing Director)

Yeah, thanks a lot, and good evening, everybody. I guess, Mark, can you give us some perspective on any differences in trends that you saw from the shopper in Canada versus U.S.? Just trying to get an understanding if there's any differences there. And then, you know, kind of similar question on, you know, behavior differences between what the, how the members acted in the quarter and how they've changed versus, you know, non-member shoppers in your data analytics. Thanks, guys.

Mark Walsh (CEO)

Okay. On the, on the Canadian piece, look, the, the Canadian consumer is stressed, like the, U.S. consumer. Well, I think the strength of our model over, a period of stress, we've been able to achieve very strong comps. So our value proposition remains as powerful today with the Canadian consumer as it ever has been. But we're obviously keeping a sharp eye on the market and once again, employing a data-driven approach to match production to demand, to deliver that strong productivity, Randal. I don't think we see any massive difference in their shopping behavior. Again, transactions drove growth, and baskets are relatively, similar. So very, very, very symbiotic, consumer reaction in both countries. On the member, non-member, I'd point to the, the real strong growth we had in signing up members this past quarter.

Broke that 5 million loyalty member database mark. Very exciting for us. A couple of other data points I'd point out on the loyalty program. Very pleased, again, with our store execution on the ability to capture new member signups, an engine that ultimately fuels that growth and the stickiness with those thrifters. And the non-me- the member signups continue to be moving towards that youngest cohort. So another couple of hundred basis point move in the youngest cohort signing up, in terms of the number of folks who signed up. Sorry, I kind of pushed that a bit. And we're also seeing in the higher household incomes, that trade down. So we're seeing active trade down with our higher household income cohorts, increasing their share of the overall pie.

Randal Konik (Managing Director)

Great, thanks. And then, Jay, I don't know if you mentioned this, I might have missed it, but just how do you think, how should we be thinking about, I guess, high level about FX impacts across top and EBITDA dollar lines as we think about, you know, beyond next quarter into next year? Just high level.

Jay Stasz (CFO)

Yeah. So we are... You know, we're gonna forecast that at the future forward curve future rates at the time. We're currently at 0.725 for the Canadian dollar, so we don't have the perfect crystal ball, but when we get around to our 2024 guidance, you know, we will use the then existing future curves to estimate that.

Randal Konik (Managing Director)

I guess, then, any changes in how you're thinking about hedging or anything like that, then, or no?

Jay Stasz (CFO)

No. I mean, we, we have got a couple hedges in place, a cross-currency swap on our debt, as well as some, Canadian futures contracts to hedge about 60% of our cash flow from Canada, and those have been effective, even in this environment. I mean, we're constantly looking at it, but we wouldn't expect major changes.

Randal Konik (Managing Director)

Fair enough. Great. Thanks, guys.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Michael Lasser from UBS. Your line is now open.

Michael Lasser (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Good evening. Thank you so much for taking my question. It sounds like while the weather was a drag on the business in September, in October, and what you've seen so far this quarter, it's a combination of some weather drag along with the consumer trepidation. So A, is that right? B, is it best for us to expect that that's gonna continue for the next couple of quarters, or would you expect if this consumer pressure persists, that you'll start to see a trade-down that will support your same-store sales growth that you just haven't seen as of yet?

Mark Walsh (CEO)

I would not say that that's an accurate portrayal of what's happened. In the last couple weeks, as the weather has moderated and we've gotten to more seasonal weather patterns, we've seen an improvement in our comp trends. So we feel actually very bullish about that. We feel good about that, moving forward. And again, as I mentioned, we have continued to see active trade down in our higher household income cohorts, increasing the share of their overall pie during that same window.

Jay Stasz (CFO)

Yeah. Michael, this is Jay, just to add a couple other points, right? So like Mark said, we've seen that acceleration, so we feel good about that. You know, we're trending for 2.4, right, you know, right into the guidance that we've given from a comp standpoint, 0%-1%. And we're not, you know, we're not giving 2024 guidance at this time, but there is. We've experienced no structural changes to the business, and we're confident we can achieve the long-term growth targets over time. I mean, sure, there could be some variability quarter to quarter. But the beauty of the model, like we've talked about, is our ability to modulate the processing, so we can maintain profitability and drive that EBITDA growth.

Michael Lasser (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. 2 other quick follow-ups. Number 1, is there any relationship between the quality of the product that gets delivered in the economic cycle? Meaning, if the economy gets tougher, the quality of the product that gets donated may not be consistent with what you've seen in the last few years, and so sales yield could moderate. Also, it looks like the new store productivity remains under pressure, just as we're able to calculate it externally. Can you give us a sense of why that is the case? Thank you very much.

Jubran Tanious (President and COO)

Yeah. Hey, Michael, this is Jubran. I think Jay and I will tag team this one. So on the donation side, your question around, you know, does the quality or even the volume of donations change in a challenged economy? What I can tell you is we're not seeing that in our business. In fact, on-site donation volume has been robust in both Canada and the U.S., and a lot of that goes to execution. And we've talked about this in the past, where, you know, when it comes to being the donation destination of choice for the donor, convenience is king, like we talked about. And then they need to have that reliable, fast, friendly experience that our team members are trained to give each and every time. So doing that consistently, doing that well ensures that you stay that destination of choice.

Again, we're seeing pretty robust on-site donation performance, which we know, as mentioned earlier, helps drive sales yield for us.

Jay Stasz (CFO)

Yeah, Michael, this is Jay. Just on the new store productivity calculation, and understand, right, with the information you have, it's hard to get to it. But our new stores are performing right in line with our expectations, are doing very well, and that translates to a new store productivity of about 70%. And it's challenging to get to from the numbers because there's some noise in there with our wholesale revenue. We're lapping some closed stores still as well in the quarter. And then finally, Second Avenue, right, how we're strategically shifting that model, you know, from more to the Savers model of focus on sales yield. So backing some of that noise out, the true new stores are right in line with our expectations.

Michael Lasser (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you very much, and good luck.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Mark Petrie from CIBC. Your line is now open.

Mark Petrie (Equity Research Analyst)

That's great. Thank you. Actually, I just wanted to follow up on that last question with regards to the product quality in donations. And is there any change in how new locations are ramping up in terms of volumes? And I guess that's new stores, but also the GreenDrops as you're rolling them out.

Jubran Tanious (President and COO)

Yeah. Hi, Mark, Jubran. No, not really. Not really. You know, when we do a pro forma, we open new GreenDrop locations and new stores, we kinda have a historical pattern and an expectation of what that ramp is gonna look like for donation volume. And, you know, on the whole, it's, it's-- we're seeing exactly what we expected. On some locations a bit, a bit better than what we anticipated, some a little lighter, but, but on the whole, pretty accurate in terms of our expectations. So, so no, not seeing any change on that in terms of new locations.

Jay Stasz (CFO)

Yeah, and Mark, just a reminder, right? It does take time for our stores to mature. I mean, it's a long tail, you know, 3-5 years, depending on the market and the country. So yeah, the early reads are fine, in line with our metrics, but it's a long maturity timeline.

Mark Petrie (Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, understood. Okay. And just given the landscape of a cautious consumer, I'm just curious if you have any plans to broaden your marketing programs, to, you know, appeal to and reach more customers, and specifically here in Canada, you know, to reach new Canadians, given the significant acceleration Canada is seeing, from an immigration perspective?

Jubran Tanious (President and COO)

I'd say this on the Canadian market, having just been there for a week, just two weeks ago, I was up in Alberta, and we're, we feel really good about our approach. And I will tell you, the best indicator of how we're reaching out to new Canadians is our new stores in Canada. We're very pleased with new store openings. The number of people we're signing up remains robust in Canada, and I would say we're really confident in continuing to drive that feel that we are a part of the mainstream retail economy. We're really woven into the fabric, no pun intended, of the Canadian retail landscape, Mark.

Mark Petrie (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, appreciate the comments. And then any update with regards to the M&A landscape? I know that's obviously an ongoing story and part of the strategy. I'm just curious if the current landscape is shifting at all. Thank you.

Jubran Tanious (President and COO)

Landscape has not shifted. We remain focused on the dynamics that we talked about in the last call around geographic infill, the opportunity to grow within a market, strong supply, that strong local brand presence, a solid and stable, attractive workforce in terms of what we inherit, and then the opportunity to leverage our operational excellence to capture additional synergies. So beyond that, nothing I could say at this time.

Mark Altschwager (Senior Research Analyst)

... Okay, appreciate all the comments, and all the best in the holiday.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Peter Keith from Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.

Peter Keith (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, thanks. Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to ask about store growth. So there seems to be some awareness that in the marketplace with investors, that Savers was challenged with new store openings before 2019 under prior management. And as a result, maybe, you know, the current team, you guys, will also have trouble opening up new stores. And I guess if someone is suggesting that, where might the thinking be incorrect in that assumption?

Jubran Tanious (President and COO)

Yeah. Hey, Peter, this is Jubran, and I'll grab that one. You guys can jump in. You're absolutely right. It was a different paradigm under a different administration. One thing that we do know in doing the forensics on that is, you know, today, when we think about new store sites, we want to check the box on a few things. So, we have a pro forma and a very good predictive model on foot traffic, the surrounding trade area, so on and so forth, but also on supply. And we, you know, we talk about the white space that we have and the momentum that the team has built in terms of that robust pipeline, but we won't open a new store unless we've got the supply equation figured out.

And that means on-site donation performance for the location, as well as what the supplementary delivered supply is gonna look like. And I can just tell you that in some of those previous vintages, they had not figured that out, and it was not a data-driven approach the way that we're doing today.

Mark Walsh (CEO)

Yeah, I think I'll add this, that the approaches couldn't be more different. And I think we built the muscle, and we're executing to a high, high degree. So I'm really confident about Jubran and David Sibert and their team in opening these new stores and continued success over the next years.

Peter Keith (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, good.

Jubran Tanious (President and COO)

Yeah, I'm sorry, Peter. The only other thing I would share is that, you know, pretty selective in where we open new sites that meet all that criteria, and we're able to do that because of that white space. Because we are prospecting in every major market in North America and Australia. So there's a big, robust pipeline that's sitting behind the scenes that allows us to be very judicious in the new stores that we choose.

Peter Keith (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

That sounds good.

Mark Walsh (CEO)

We are on track for our store target both this year and next year.

Peter Keith (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Well, I wanted to just pivot back to the sales trend, and I know you talked about weather, and certainly, I think we're all aware of a kind of a warm start to the fall. But the weather's not been equal across the country. It has been colder in the Western U.S., warmer, middle, and eastern. So did you see any geographic differences in the sales trend, maybe in the last two months as a result of that?

Jubran Tanious (President and COO)

Yes, that's a very good question. We absolutely have seen differences in the sales trend. Again, we're running statistical analysis all the time, looking at volume and highs with respect to TYLY, the temperature highs. And we do see high, high correlation, high negative correlation when that temperature spikes up when we're in the shoulder season, we're trying to push cold weather goods. We see the volume of transactions go down. But in areas where we haven't had that extreme warmth, we've seen much better performance, much more consistent performance as we have through the third and the second quarters. And that's why we do talk about weather, because we feel like once the weather pattern settles, we'll get back to our cadence of strong comp growth.

Peter Keith (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, thank you very much.

Mark Altschwager (Senior Research Analyst)

Thanks, Peter.

Jubran Tanious (President and COO)

One more thing I'll add, Peter, is-

Operator (participant)

If you'd like-

Jubran Tanious (President and COO)

Sorry. One more thing I'll add, Peter, is that we have seen hard goods. The consistency of our hard demand remains constant, so there's no weather influence on miscellaneous and furniture and books. That's been very consistent throughout the quarter.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you'd like to ask any questions, please press star and number one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Bob, from Guggenheim. Your line is now open.

Bob Drbul (Senior Managing Director)

Hi, good afternoon. Just two questions for me. The first one is just, you know, on the sales piece of it, are you seeing any new competitive pressures, you know, in any of the markets that you're competing in? And then the second one is, can you just give us an update, just sort of on the number of GreenDrops, and just sort of make sure our plans are current on, you know, sort of the pipeline of GreenDrops as well. Thanks.

Jubran Tanious (President and COO)

I'll answer the first question, Bob. Thanks for the question. No, not any negative influence from the competitive set. We're well positioned, feel very good about our presentation from a merchandising perspective, as we discussed. We know from consumer research that our merchandising is superior to our competitive set. So we feel great about where we sit today and our value proposition and how we're standing, how we look to the consumer once they walk in that door.

Mark Walsh (CEO)

Yeah, Bob, and then on the GreenDrop side, so we are at roughly 60 locations right now. For this year, we will have line of sight to approximately 30 locations that we will have opened. All doing well in terms of their early performance with what we model, so very happy about that.

One thing I will say about GreenDrop is that it's such an attractive, different method, right? And all of you are familiar with this, right? They're visible, clean, well-maintained locations, as opposed to the standalone bin and all the problems that those can create. But the fact that they are different does make it challenging in some municipalities to get the permitting, right? To fill the permitting form for the city can be challenging. So there are occasions where we have to work through the permitting process in different municipalities, but again, I would go back to, there's such tremendous white space, and we are looking to grow GreenDrop for years and years into the future, that we are prospecting in lots of markets. And that robust pipeline is what ensures that we're gonna realize that into the future.

You know, one thing to bear in mind is that we're very bullish on GreenDrop to be able to collect high-quality supply in high-traffic, affluent areas. But GreenDrop today actually represents a relatively small percentage of our supply. So, 5 or 10 GreenDrop locations here or there in a year is not what we would consider material. So overall, still very excited about the opportunity. The ones we have opened are doing very well and encouraged for the years to come. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Question comes from Mark Altschwager from Baird. Your line is now open.

Mark Altschwager (Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you. Good afternoon. I guess just first, I wanted to follow up, regarding the Q4 comp guidance. Could you just clarify, does the guide incorporate reacceleration in the back half of the quarter as you get past kind of the shoulder season and weather is less of a factor? Or, is it more representative of what you've experienced, quarter to date?

Jay Stasz (CFO)

We did see softness in October. We did step up from September. It got better in October, but we were still below our expectations, and that was largely driven by weather. Because as Marcus said, the hard goods have continued to be strong and consistent throughout these time periods. The last couple weeks, given that the weather has become more seasonal in many of our markets, we've seen an acceleration. So I would tell you that the comp guidance for the quarter is tied in kind of to the most current trends that we're seeing.

Mark Altschwager (Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you for that. And then, also wanted to ask about some of the efficiency initiatives. I guess, self-checkout, I know that's been a nice benefit this year. How much opportunity remains on that front into 2024? And then, relatedly, you brought up the central processing centers. Just curious, any update on what the runway looks like for that initiative? Thank you.

Jubran Tanious (President and COO)

Yeah, Mark, the self-checkout is largely in the rearview mirror at this point. That was well executed across all three countries, and that's pretty much behind us now. So that was a home run. CPCs, yeah, I mean, this is a multiyear strategic investment. We continue to make very solid progress. As a reminder, we have 4 in operation today. The Calgary CPC opened at the end of July. We have 1 more CPC for this year in our Minnesota market. And then in 2024, we plan to open a facility in Southern California, and possibly 1 additional facility, if we find the right location that makes economic sense.

But very pleased with the month-on-month improvement, continuous improvement of the yield that's coming out of those facilities, the production efficiency, and most of all, new store opportunities, as we just talked about, is what we remain focused on. New sites that are very attractive to us, that are only made possible by the presence of the CPC. So pretty happy with the progress of the team and the continuous improvement going forward.

Jay Stasz (CFO)

And I'll add, the automated book processing units continue to deliver significant IRR returns. We're very pleased with those, and we will continue our rollout of those in both non-CPC and CPC operating markets.

Jubran Tanious (President and COO)

Yeah, the headline on stores, guys, is currently, 63 stores serviced by the ABPs. By the end of this year, that number will be up to 85-90 stores.

Mark Altschwager (Senior Research Analyst)

Thanks for all the details.

Operator (participant)

This concludes our question-

Jubran Tanious (President and COO)

Go ahead, operator.

Operator (participant)

My apologies. This concludes our question and answer session. I'd now like to hand back to the management for their final remarks.

Jubran Tanious (President and COO)

I'd like to thank everyone for their time and interest in Savers. Look forward to speaking to you again when we report our 4Q results. Have a great holiday.