Smurfit Westrock - Q2 2021
July 28, 2021
Transcript
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'm very happy that you found the time to join us for our first half 2021 earnings call. I'm joined today on the call by Ken Bowles, our CFO, who all of you know, and by Saverio Mayer, our CEO of Europe. We're all dialing in from different locations, so I hope there will not be any technical issues that interrupt the call or the discussion afterwards. As is now customary, I refer you to the forward-looking disclaimer in the presentation. During the course of this presentation, I hope you'll see that by any measure, Smurfit Kappa had a great first half. Our team operated at a very high level across the organization, dealing with freezes, floods, national strikes, and unprecedented increases in costs and shortages of raw materials to deliver a very strong set of results across all metrics.
I'm particularly proud that against this backdrop, we have, for the most part, been able to supply our customers. Our product is a critical component of the global supply chain, and I'm thankful that all of our people have gone the extra mile to ensure deliveries are maintained. I think the numbers speak for themselves on this slide, recognizing that to some extent, they reflect what we said would be a pinch point as the passing of the input cost increases only really began in the second quarter. This cost pass-through has continued and will continue right into next year. From a demand perspective, we're essentially sold out across all of our markets globally, and the strong volume growth is continuing.
What I think is especially interesting is that demand increased in the first half by 9% versus 2019, a year uninterrupted by the pandemic, which I think demonstrates the step change in our industry and its prospects. So you may ask yourself, what is actually happening to the overall industry? Indeed, we are experiencing increased interest in our engagements with both existing and new stakeholders, be they customers, investors, or even media who are taking more note of our business. Essentially, the glide path of our industry, pre-pandemic, was already strong. Both our customers and consumers in general had woken up to the fact that excess plastic waste was a huge negative for the environment. Paper-based packaging is the obvious alternative, being renewable, recyclable, and biodegradable.
Our product is in the right space for what the consumer actually wants today and in the right space for the planet. Of course, we need to do our piece also as an industry and reduce all our emissions and usages of precious resources. With ongoing technological advances, this is progressively being achieved, and this is something Ken will discuss our progress on later. Additionally, e-commerce was and is becoming more and more a part of our lives. The pandemic has only accelerated this development, with practically everyone now understanding the flexibility and convenience of e-commerce shopping. Increased levels of digitalization and personalization in the consumer experience of shopping online will provide further added value opportunities for corrugated packaging in the years to come.
The final development for our industry has been the adaptive nature of our product, and customers understanding that with the right packaging supplier, that our product, the corrugated box, can be used as a marketing medium for either direct sales or as part of a company's branding. The industry's advances in digital printing capabilities and increased personalization enhance the opportunities for corrugated packaging, our customers and consumers alike. These factors combine to significantly enhance both the value and application of corrugated, and as the slide says, are contributing to a transformation of the industry's prospects. Putting the previous slide into context, Smurfit Kappa is better positioned today than at any other point in our history to capitalize on the very significant opportunities we continue to see.
To ensure we put ourselves in the right position, five years ago, we launched a new strategic vision and medium-term plan. We have delivered on this plan, and it has been at the heart of the transformation of the Smurfit Kappa business. As we progress through 2020, we continue to see opportunities and the need to invest behind us. And so we accelerated our plans as across our business, we saw, as I say, nothing but opportunities to grow and service our customers. Our EUR 660 million capital raise late last year has effectively accelerated that transformation. In Smurfit Kappa, we embrace a performance-led culture, and we have core values that have stood us in good stead over decades. Obviously, people and culture are at the heart of what we do.
We have loyal, long-service people who we empower to act as owners, remembering that corrugated is in many ways a localized business. As I said earlier, our plant managers go the extra mile, and because of our people, we have a product range and packaging that is ever-expanding and unique. A small example of that is our highly synergistic and complementary Bag-in-Box, which 20 years ago was effectively an also-ran, whereas today, we are number two in the world and continuing to grow rapidly. Equally, much of our investment plan, while not only improving the quality of the assets under management, is also adding specialization. And of course, with specialized market offerings comes complexity, requiring a level of expertise that only Smurfit Kappa can provide.
In most markets in which we operate, Smurfit Kappa is the leader, and this gives us a real edge. A good example of this is our recent Peruvian deal, where a small independent company has essentially been given the keys to Aladdin's Cave, where all our global market and innovation knowledge is now available to a business that had practically nothing before. This can be seen across design, operational excellence, customer insights, as an example, demonstrating the power of Smurfit Kappa and the opportunities that are available across all of our operations globally. Ken will, of course, talk about our sustainability credentials. However, I would say that we continue to work hard to use less, make less, and save more in all areas of sustainability. We've published our progress for 14 years and have set new and ambitious goals to continue to drive the business forward.
Of course, the previous slide refers to the key pillars that give Smurfit Kappa its competitive advantage, but that doesn't mean anything unless put into action. What I remain impressed with in Smurfit Kappa is the responsiveness, the agility, and the creativity of our company. We're constantly inventing new innovative solutions, such as the replacement of plastic tubs with corrugated. By the way, a massive opportunity for us. We're solving customers' pain, such as frustration-free packaging solutions for Amazon. We're moving customers away from plastic trays across many territories to corrugated trays, which in many instances, includes supplying erecting machinery, and we're developing our own bespoke waste collection system to deal with regulatory issues in Germany and in other countries in the future. Today, Smurfit Kappa has 28 Experience Centres, which act as repositories for all the data, ideas, and information that we're constantly developing and collecting.
Whether the customer challenge is in understanding supply chains, the need for innovative designs, or increased shelf appearance, our selling organization can access this across our group and give our customers the most advanced and effective solutions in the industry. In a world where our customers are increasingly focused on speed to market, sustainable packaging, and providing online solutions, Smurfit Kappa is constantly innovating with its industry-leading applications, such as SupplySmart, ShelfSmart, and eSmart, which are supported by the largest data set in the industry, providing our company with a true competitive advantage. Another key strength of Smurfit Kappa has been our history in M&A. We buy things because they make sense for the development and value of our business, and we get real synergies.
This slide illustrates that we are constantly active, doing both smaller and larger deals, with over EUR 770 million spent on M&A since 2018 alone. We're also happy to enter new territories, where we can really bring our expertise in paper or corrugated to good effect, transferring best practice and knowledge and supporting our customers. Equally, I remain really proud of the retention of people in most deals, as again, they see our company as a good place to work. During our strategic planning process five years ago, we recognized that our corrugated growth would need paper capacity to retain our integrated model approach for the benefit of all stakeholders. As such, we had expected to build a machine in Europe.
However, reflecting the agility and flexibility of our plan, we instead bought the Parenco paper mill in the Netherlands three years ago in place of the organic internal mill project. This acquisition is now at our expectations and practically fully integrated into our system. Today, I'm particularly delighted to announce that we've been able to once again acquire containerboard for present and future growth by entering into an agreement to purchase a truly world-class asset in Verzuolo in northern Italy. I will now turn you over to Saverio Mayer, our CEO of Europe, who will brief you on the specifics. Saverio, over to you.
Saverio Mayer (CEO of Europe)
Thank you, Tony, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. As Tony did say, I'm also really delighted to be able to inform you about our agreements to acquire the Verzuolo mill, located in northern Italy. As Tony has said, we have experienced and continue to experience very strong demand within our corrugated business across all our European operations. And with this, our short position on recycled containerboard has grown ahead of expectations. While we are flexible to use third-party purchases to augment our integrated system, our assurance to customers is that we will be a predominantly integrated producer. This acquisition ensures that as we offer customers innovative and sustainable packaging solutions that drive additional growth, and that we can match this demand growth with security of high-quality supply.
Verzuolo is a mill we have studied for a number of years, as it ticks all of our boxes from every strategic and operational perspective. First of all, it is a state-of-the-art 9.8 m machine, which is in its ramp-up phase, having been built in 2002 and converted just eighteen months ago to containerboard. The management team and operational personnel are really skilled paper makers, and we welcome them to Smurfit Kappa. In terms of our customer offering... Smurfit Kappa solutions are clearly superior to that of the competition, and by the end of 2022, we will have added over 20 corrugated conversion machines in Italy, France, and Spain alone, delivering additional capacity to cater for our customer growth.
Against this, the Verzuolo mill location is perfectly located for supplying the growth of these corrugated plants in Italy, France, and Spain, and further strengthen the Smurfit Kappa integrated model in the region. The mill also enhances our operational flexibility. While we will continue to supply third parties from the mill, we will also be able to supply additional tonnage to our own integrated system. Bringing this mill into our system allows us to delay another conversion project for a number of years, as we carousel our produced tonnage between Northern and Southern Europe. And finally, the Port of Savona allows for international shipment and integration opportunities with our Americas business, if needed in the future, providing additional flexibility to our system. We are buying this operation significantly below replacement cost at EUR 360 million, and with no startup risk.
While Burgo has done an excellent job in developing the mill, their primary expertise is in graphic papers, and they have no corrugated integration. As such, with our ability to have internal customers, we will be able to balance the machine better, giving greater efficiency. Equally, there will be savings in transport, energy, and other area, which will bring this mill to be one of our most efficient in our system as we develop it further into the future. I am extremely pleased that we have agreed to acquire this asset. This will bring high quality, lightweight tonnage into our system that we urgently need to meet our growth, which is currently under pressure due to a lack of paper.
With this asset now part of Smurfit Kappa, we will be able to better meet the growth of our corrugated plants, and most importantly, our customers, as the drive for more sustainable packaging solution continues to grow. I hope you will get the sense from this presentation that we have a track record of successful and effective M&A integration. I will now pass you to Ken to take you through the financials.
Ken Bowles (CFO)
Thanks, Saverio, and congratulations on the superb deal executed in a very tight timeframe of just 41 days, which I think speaks a lot to how we do things in Smurfit Kappa. Good morning, everybody, and again, thank you for taking the time to join us. Looking at our first half results, we are pleased to deliver yet another strong performance in the first half of 2021. This performance again illustrates the benefits of the group's integrated model, our performance-led culture, our customer-focused innovation, and our capital spend program. It is also important to remember that these results have been delivered against a backdrop of significant raw material headwinds, which we continue to work hard to overcome.
Group revenue was EUR 4.7 billion for the year, up 11% on the first half of 2020, or 13% on an underlying basis. The rise primarily represents the impact of our strong volume growth in the half, with an element of box pricing. Although negatively impacted by currency, group EBITDA was still up 6% to EUR 781 million. We saw a reduction in the EBITDA margin from 17.5% in the first half of 2020 to 16.7% in the first half of 2021. The margin for the first six months reflects a lower margin year-on-year in Europe and a higher margin in the Americas.
As Tony mentioned earlier, we began to see the passing through of raw material increases in our box price in the second quarter, and all things being equal, we anticipate margin expansion as we pass through the second half of the year. Free cash flow for the first half was EUR 117 million, compared to EUR 238 million in the first half of 2020. An EBITDA increase of EUR 46 million and lower capital outflows for CapEx of EUR 26 million was more than offset by higher working capital, primarily as a result of much higher volume and tax payments of EUR 163 million and EUR 24 million respectively.
The management of working capital, as you know, remains always a focus for us, and the working capital as a percentage of sales is 8.1% at June 2021, compared to 8.4% this time last year, and we anticipate that working capital will continue to trend in that 7%-8% range as we move through the rest of the year. Our cash interest reduced year-on-year as a result of lower average levels of borrowing, and we're also pleased that during the first half of 2021, both Moody's and Standard & Poor's upgraded the group's long-term issuer rating to Baa3 and BBB-, respectively.
With a strong business profile and our ability to consistently deliver substantial free cash flow, the group is aiming to maintain investment-grade credit ratings and a leverage in the 1.5x-2x range. With our current investment program, we aim to be at the midpoint of that range through the cycle. Finally, reflecting the resilience of the cash flows and indeed our future prospects, we are pleased to announce a 5% increase in the interim dividend to EUR 0.293 per share. Turning now to our European operations and their performance in the first half of 2021. EBITDA increased by 3% to EUR 591 million, primarily as a result of strong volume growth and the early progress on box prices, box price increases I mentioned earlier.
The EBITDA margin was 16.2%, down from 17.6% on the same period in 2020. Corrugated demand, though, was up approximately 10% in 2020, and as Tony referenced earlier, 9% on 2019. European pricing for testliner and kraftliner has increased by EUR 220 per ton and EUR 200 per ton respectively, from the low of September 2020 to June 2021. And as we begin the second half of the year, inventories remain extremely tight, demand remains strong, and prices for containerboard have risen further since the end of the first half. Finally, we continue to make progress on our European capital investment plans in the first half of 2021, with the commencement of a number of significant projects across our corrugated and paper divisions.
In our paper division, we announced growth projects in Germany and a significant sustainability investment also in Germany, which, upon completion, will reduce our group's CO2 emissions intensity by 2%. In our corrugated division, we announced significant expansion projects in France, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, and the U.K. We've also recently announced the completion of an increased capacity investment in our Spanish bag and box plants. These projects will enable us not only to supply our customers with ever more sustainable products, but also reduce costs throughout our system. And now turning to the Americas. In the Americas, EBITDA increased by 19% from the first half of 2020 to EUR 211 million.
The EBITDA margin also increased from 19% in the first half of 2020 to 20.4% in the first half of 2021, delivered against a backdrop of not only rising input costs, but difficult weather conditions in the Southern U.S. in the first quarter, and a challenging second quarter in Colombia due to national strikes. Colombia, Mexico, and the U.S. accounted for almost 80% of the region's earnings, with strong performances in all three countries. Corrugated demand for the first half was up 11% year-on-year. As Tony mentioned, we have recently announced the acquisition of two operations in the Americas, a new territory in Peru, and in Mexico, further expanding not only our geographic, but also our customer reach.
Our Better Planet Packaging initiative, our unique Pan America sales offering, together with our Experience Center network, and coupled with the benefits derived from our investment in the region in recent years, continue to deliver growth for both SKG and our customers in the region, and similar to our investment in our European business, we've also recently announced significant expansion and sustainability-focused projects in our paper, corrugated, and sack businesses in Colombia, North America, and Central America. SKG continues to make significant progress in achieving its sustainability targets, as outlined in our fourteenth Sustainable Development Report. The report highlights the group's long-standing objective to drive change and positively contribute to a greener planet, to the three key pillars of planet, people, and impactful business.
We were the first in our industry to target at least net zero by 2050, and compared to our baseline year of 2005, the group has reduced its emissions intensity by 37.3% by the end of last year. The reduction in 2020 versus 2019 was 7%, which is an acceleration compared with the previous year. We are well on our way to reach our intermediate 2030 target of 55% reduction, in line with the EU Green Deal objectives. We also made continued progress on a number of our other key sustainability targets.
Water discharge quality improved by 5%, waste to landfill intensity decreased by 18%, chain of custody certified packaging deliveries to customers increased by 2%, our safety performance improved by 29%, and in social projects, we had EUR 7.7 million in donations, including EUR 3 million in various COVID-related projects during the financial year. While the report has been independently assured since 2009, our 2020 Sustainable Development Report is our first report in line with recommendations of the TCFD and the SASB. SKG also aligned its sustainability ambitions and targets into its refinancing, and embedding its sustainability targets via key performance indicators into its, our existing EUR 1.35 billion revolving credit facility, creating a sustainability-linked RCF. The group has been contributing to making the UN 2030 Sustainable Development Goals a reality since 2015.
This contribution was recognized by the Support the Goals movement in 2021, when the group became the first FTSE 100 company to receive a five-star rating. By committing to these sustainability projects, the group's Better Planet Packaging portfolio of sustainable products will continue to help our customers deliver on their own sustainability goals. Finally, the usual reminder on how we see capital allocation as a framework. As always, it's a returns-focused framework with a view to remaining agile and flexible in order to ensure that we trap the opportunities we see around us. While the framework has and will remain consistent, what has changed is the opportunity set that we see around us and the balance sheet to support it, either through internal investment or M&A. We believe capital allocated to internal projects is key to the continued growth and performance of the business.
The opportunity set, driven by areas such as the consumer's desire for a more sustainable world and the growth and maturity of e-commerce, is real, and we are investing behind those opportunities. Equally, we remain disciplined when it comes to M&A. Verzuolo is the perfect example of this approach in action. As always, we have a number of projects in the pipeline focused on building out our strong geographic network or further enhancing our product portfolio, or indeed, in the case of Verzuolo, strengthening the integrated model. As always, M&A continued to benchmark against all other capital allocation options. The dividend is a key pillar of our thinking around capital allocation. I'll reiterate what I said before, that it's an input rather than an output. Over the last five years, our dividend has a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10%.
I think our actions relating to our dividend during 2020 were a clear illustration of our commitment to a progressive dividend. The increase in the interim dividend is both a further step in our journey and another illustration of our belief in the future prospects and indeed, the cash generation ability of the group. We believe we have repeatedly demonstrated that we are effective stewards of capital. This will remain the case as we deploy the capital on our current investment plan. Collectively, those projects must contribute towards the group meeting its return on capital employed target of 17%. With a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.6x, the strength of the group's balance sheet continues to secure long-term strategic flexibility, and the group remains strongly positioned within its BBB-, BBB-, Baa3 credit rating.
And I'll now hand it back to Tony for some concluding remarks.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
Thank you very much, Ken, and thank you, Saverio. And again, as Ken said, congratulations to you, Saverio, for getting a deal done in such an incredibly short period of time. And also thanks to the Dublin team for their work in making sure that that occurred. I hope that the last 25 minutes or so have given you a sense of the really great journey that we, in Smurfit Kappa, are on. When we raised equity a little over eight months ago, it was to accelerate our investment plans to take advantage of the many opportunities we saw before us, with a balance sheet with significant strength. Market conditions are probably better than we had expected at the time, and we have, as a consequence, continued to accelerate our capital plans.
While costs are also much higher than anticipated, these are being offset by progressive and continuing price recovery in our end markets. We've also experienced strong customer retention and growth as our integrated business model gives security of supply, in addition to the many benefits customers get from dealing with our innovative packaging solutions. The mega trends of e-commerce and sustainable packaging solutions have clearly accelerated, and as such, we continue to invest strongly to take advantage of this for all stakeholders. As a company, we've always stated that we will retain our agility, and we continue to demonstrate this by our actions. Our recent acquisitions, most notably Verzuolo, show that our experienced management team are able to find significant value creation opportunities. Perhaps even more notable is that in every geographic territory, we're finding investment opportunities to either follow customer growth or reduce our cost base.
Our geographic balance, our integrated operating model, our unique product offering, and our leading market position have positioned Smurfit Kappa optimally, within an industry that has transformed prospects. Over decades, we have developed the leading innovative products in the industry, produced on assets that are world-class and truly irreplaceable. After what was a very challenging first half due to significant cost inflation, we expect strong and accelerating earnings growth for the remainder of the year. Again, I would like to pay tribute to all my fellow employees in Smurfit Kappa that continue to deliver for our customers and all stakeholders. With that, operator, we will now turn over to questions from the floor. Thank you all for being with us.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. If you do wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. If you do wish to withdraw your question, you can do so by pressing zero two to cancel. Our first question comes from the line of Allan Smylie from Davy. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Allan Smylie (Analyst)
Yeah. Hi, Tony. Hi, Ken. Hi, Saverio. It's Allan over at Davy. So I'll stick to the rules and ask two questions, please. The first, just with respect to the acquisition, it would be useful to contextualize how the additional volumes are feeding through to your integrated model. You flagged that your current short testliner position has been increasing ahead of expectations. So just the latest numbers around that short testliner position would be helpful. And the second question relates to box volumes. The backdrop is clearly very strong. It looks like your PN volumes are up 13%-14% in Q2. So if you could talk through how July has progressed to date and your current thinking on the third and fourth quarter. Thank you.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
Thanks, Allan. Maybe I'll ask Saverio to jump in on the acquisition, but I mean, basically, as we said in the commentary, we're in a sold-out position, and we don't have enough paper. We have grown much stronger than anticipated. You know, obviously, we need paper, and there is very little paper around on a global basis. We don't expect that to change in the short or even the medium term, because most of the new capacity has already been introduced. Obviously, some will be ramping up as we go through the second half of this year and the first half of next year, but still, nonetheless, the growth levels of the market are still very strong. We would see...
I'll ask Saverio to jump in on how the acquisition is seen within the company and how it's gonna work. But volumes in the second half, I mean, obviously, we're at the end of July. We've seen a continuation of what we saw in the first half. They're very strong. You know, when we talk to customers, we're talking about October lead times now, and you know, I think that it's unlikely to change in the fourth quarter because that is traditionally a much stronger quarter anyway. So we see nothing on the horizon that's gonna be negative for box volumes at this juncture. Obviously, Allan, you have to bear in mind that Q4 last year was extremely strong.
The comparison, you know, I wouldn't suspect that we'll see 14% growth year-on-year in fourth quarter. You know, we're certainly anticipating strong growth. Saverio, do you wanna just talk about how the acquisition is seen within the company, and how it's gonna slot into our short position?
Saverio Mayer (CEO of Europe)
... Sure, sure. When we look at what we forecast in terms of evolution of volumes, I mean, we are today we are six hundred and fifty thousand tons short on recycled paper and still slightly long on the kraftliner paper. So this tonnage is gonna put us in a much more balanced situation to take the growth, and it's perfectly located in the region where we have been historically short, meaning Italy, France, and Spain, which, by the way, are very active areas at that where we are having many opportunities to grow.
Allan Smylie (Analyst)
That's very helpful.
Saverio Mayer (CEO of Europe)
Yeah.
Allan Smylie (Analyst)
Thanks, guys.
Saverio Mayer (CEO of Europe)
Thank you.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
Thanks, Allan.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Lars Kjellberg from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Lars Kjellberg (Analyst)
Thank you. Just coming back to your strong performance, resilient performance in H1, and of course, your guidance of strong, progressive, accelerating growth in H2. Maybe Ken, can you provide us a bridge for the moving parts in H1, and directionally, of course, how we should think about, you know, cost, volumes, and price, progressive is the word, in H2, to you know, get back to that strong and accelerated growth that you mentioned in your guidance. And Tony, you mentioned, you know, plastic trays as another massive opportunity for you in terms of sustainable packaging.
Can you put into context now, you, you have a number of projects and products and offerings, where you are, where you see this business heading, and how it can add to your underlying strong growth trends from a structural point of view? Thank you.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
I'll give the first question to Ken, but I'll take your second question. I think, you know, the reality right now, Lars, is that most customers are just worried about supply of whatever they're buying. I think they're buying, whether they're buying plastic trays or corrugated trays or plastic tubs or corrugated tubs, you know, there is massive shortages of everything. Our customers are committed to moving big volume away from non biodegradable, non-recyclable businesses to corrugated and paper-based packaging, and we see that across practically every company that we talk to. I would say there's some delay on that because of the current shortages that exist for everything.
I mean, if we had tomorrow morning, a customer come to us and said, "We want to move a plastic tub to corrugated," if it was thirty or forty thousand tons, we would have great difficulty doing it. So we would have to figure out a way to make sure that that happens over a, I suppose, a planned period of time with the customer. I was talking to a very large customer a month ago, and they want to move away from plastic around their cans, but they don't, they can't stop their lines because their demand is so good. And we've got a number of projects with this particular customer.
So I would say that because of the environment, the sustainable packaging side of things is progressing at the lower level, but the big volume level isn't progressing as quickly as we would all like. But frankly speaking, Lars, it suits us right now because we just don't have the capacity. But it's the trend is there, it's a massive trend, and I mean, Saverio, I don't know if you want to jump in and say something, just on that, and then, Ken, you maybe take the first question. You're on silent there, Saverio.
Saverio Mayer (CEO of Europe)
I can only add that there are more, as you said, probably it's been a little bit delayed by all the emergencies and the COVID situation and all these kind of things. But there is an enormous amount of projects for recyclable and biodegradable packaging, and we are really looking into many of those. And it's at 360 degrees, meaning in all market segments there are huge opportunities. And that's why we are so confident about the capability of developing new products and stabilizing this growth to a reasonable level.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
Ken, do you want to take the first one?
Ken Bowles (CFO)
Sure. Hey, Lars. I was looking at the, if you like, bigger moving parts. So if you take OCC, firstly, you know, for the first half, that's probably a headwind of EUR 192 million. I think if you mark to market from where we are now, you know, it's probably 200, call it 250 for the second half. I think if you look at energy, I think we'd now see. I think the last time we spoke, we probably thought energy was something of a headwind of call it, you know, maybe 60-70. I think we probably see that more like 100 now, which, you know, close to 30 was probably done in the first half. But I think we're basically hedged out for the year now.
We're close to 90% hedged in energy, so I'm not expecting much movement on that. We've seen rises, I mean, as Tony talked about in his script, we're seeing kind of general cost inflation rise. So even across things like starches and pulps and dyes, I think, you know, for the year, we'd probably expect, you know, if it was EUR 10 billion in the first half the headwind, probably an extra 20 in the second half, and equally on distribution, maybe 10 the first half, 10 the second half. But I think then you have to kind of flip that around a piece and look at some of the things we're doing to offset that, and I think, you know, certainly we've seen some of our niche businesses perform better.
We're continuing to drive out costs in the area of SG&A. You know, clearly, we're not traveling as much. There's still some savings there. And I think it's also, you know, when you get back to the operational efficiency and the superb job that, you know, Saverio and the team in Europe are doing, and Juan and the team in the Americas are doing, just in making sure that in a high volume, high growth environment, that the cost base is being kept in check and indeed being driven down. I think the last piece of that puzzle then, Lars, is, you know, you also got to take into consideration where we are, if you like, on why we think strong accelerated in the context of box pricing.
And if you look at, I suppose, the sequential movement on box pricing, which is probably more, the more important measure as we sit here today, which is, you know, Q2 over Q1, was a 5% increase in the box price. You know, which gives, gives you and I think gives us the confidence as we kind of move through the second half of the year. You know, I think if you ask us, do we think we're going to get them? I think the answer from the three of us would be absolutely, because it's imperative. There's no choice here.
And so I think, you know, when you look at that kind of rising cost environment and those kind of big moving parts, but balance that against, you know, what we know we have to do and the fact that we're already doing it. I think is what we give that kind of confidence around that statement at the end of Tony's outlook.
Lars Kjellberg (Analyst)
And just to follow up on that, you know, volumes, of course, you called out maybe it's now EUR 20 million drop through to EBITDA. And what do you stand on box pricing now, considering the growth in the first quarter, I think in the past year, every percent equals EUR 45 million or thereabouts. Where should we look at that number now?
Ken Bowles (CFO)
Yeah, I think, I think if you looked at the 1% volume, call it 17-20, I think 1% price, 45-50, that kind of space. It's moved slightly, Lars, but not materially.
Lars Kjellberg (Analyst)
Thank you.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
Thanks, Lars.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Justin Jordan from Exane. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Justin Jordan (Analyst)
Thank you, good morning, everyone. I've got two quick questions. Firstly, just on, I guess, cost inflation versus price hikes. You know, you're, you're in a really strong position in the Americas, where clearly margins in the first half are up year-over-year. Ken talked about, you know, 5% box price increases achieved quarter on quarter in Q2. I assume that's Europe. Can you sort of just help us frame your confidence in getting to, hopefully, a situation in Europe where margins would be up year-over-year? Is that dependent upon continuous strong box demand to achieve further box price increases in the second half of 2021 and 2022? Or what are the other sort of potential factors that could go right or wrong, as it were, on, on achieving, you know, similar margin progression in Europe as you've achieved in Americas?
And then just secondly, on slide five, the leadership innovation. Can you help us understand the sort of multi-year drivers that you have of e-commerce growth and sustainability? How important they are to the longer term growth of Smurfit Kappa? You know, you've very helpfully given us 9% two-year stack of volume growth in the first half of 2021 versus first half of twenty nineteen. That's incredibly impressive versus the historical industry growth rate. And I'm just trying to understand, prospectively, if we think forward over the medium term, you know, what are the sort of benefits to innovation to the medium-term growth rate of Smurfit Kappa, please? Thank you.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
Okay, thanks, Justin. Basically, I would say that the second half with regard to recovery is effectively done. Our contracts are already moving forward, and some of them will click into the first quarter of next year. If you remember, in the first quarter of this year, we had some. Despite paper going up, we had some negative prices going down to offset that because of our contracts. Our business in Europe operates differently to the Americas business. Much more, it's more American-orientated in Americas, where it sort of goes up much quicker. And so therefore, their recovery is quicker than ours is in Europe.
And that's a historical situation that we've always lived up and down through, through the cycles, and that obviously benefits us on the way up, on the way down, and it slows our progress on the way up. That said, Justin, the price rises have been extremely high and very quick. So you know, we would have very little opportunity to have recovered in the first half anyway. And I think the guys and Saverio and his team in Europe did a great job in getting those margins, or sorry, price increases through in the second quarter. And we see that in our daily sheet in July for the progression, and we'll see that all through the second half.
We have extreme confidence that it's going to get to where we expect it to get to by year end and into the first quarter because it's effectively done at this stage. Obviously, the one thing that could forestall margin increase, which is an unknown situation, is that there could be further price rises for wastepaper or, well, basically wastepaper to be material other than the forecast that we forecast. And that could forestall some margin improvements. But we would get that back because obviously that would need further price increases into paper and ultimately into boxes. So that would make next year better again. So that's the only thing that I would say, and Saverio, correct me if I'm wrong here, or so Ken, that would cause us to, to...
Or a great collapse that would cause us to have less margin expansion in Q4, Q3 and Q4. With regard to e-commerce and sustainability and innovation, I mean, you know, I think I've said this, and you know, I think that we are very comfortable that the growth that we see is real and tangible, and our innovative offering, the use of corrugated, whether it's digital or whether it's, you know, all the innovative products that we're offering our customers through sustainable packaging or through e-commerce, is here to stay.
I can't say that it's going to land at, you know, 3%, 4%, 6%, 7% on a normalized basis, but, you know, we feel very comfortable that, you know, the kind of level of growth that we're seeing is here to stay. In the rounds, but obviously it depends on your comparisons year-on-year at that point. But we're seeing nothing that is indicating anything less than opportunity in all of our territories. Saverio or Ken, do you want to jump in if I missed something? Or Justin?
Ken Bowles (CFO)
No, I think you've captured it all there, Tony, certainly on the first question. Justin, I think Tony's point, which is probably the depressing one, is I think that the rate and pace of increases on both recovered fiber and paper, you know, have kind of probably got slightly ahead of the price recovery in the first half. But as Tony said, as we get through the second half, and indeed importantly, into 2022, we've continued to see that kind of price recovery and progression. I think that's fair to say.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
Saverio, do you want to add anything?
Saverio Mayer (CEO of Europe)
I think the only thing which is really relevant on what has been the evolution is that it has to be highlighted that this has been the steepest increase of raw materials that we have seen in many, many years, and this is a reality which is occurring not only on the paper, but on many other materials, so in a way we cannot do anything else different than get the recovery of these materials.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
Thanks, Saverio. Thanks, Justin.
Justin Jordan (Analyst)
Thank you, sir.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David O'Brien from Goodbody. Please go ahead, your line is open.
David O'Brien (Analyst)
Morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my two questions. Firstly, if we can go back to the acquisition, please. Look, we can all work out a reasonable kind of mid-cycle earnings for an asset like this, but I guess a ramp-up phase can kind of muddy the waters in terms of what these mills can be earning. Just wondering, can you put some context on, you know, the either the 2020 or 2021 earnings of the mill? Would they be above or below mid-cycle at those times? And just some color around that, please. And then secondly, you know, Ken, you called out the 5% increase sequentially on corrugated box price. And you know, how has that pricing dynamic varied between indexed and open market negotiations?
Maybe if I could just tag on a part B, what scale of total increases do you expect over the next, you know, 12-18 months?
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
Ken, I'll give you both of those.
Ken Bowles (CFO)
Oh, thank you, Tony. You're so generous. I'll take the second one first, David, and you know my answer to the second part of your question, which is we don't forecast box price increases, but I think it's back to Saverio's last comment, which is there's an inevitability and a requirement to recover all of the cost input pressures that we see, and also I think it points back to our track record here and how we've done it, and I suppose you know, if you think about where our margin starts off this year versus where, like, it ended the last time we were at this kind of point, and you can see the kind of rate progression and the platform we're starting from is ever stronger.
I think it's probably fair to say that the 5% Q2 over Q1 was probably more weighted towards the free market than the indexed. I think we see the index going more through in the second half of the year and indeed into the first part of next year. And if you remember, Dave, back in the first quarter of this year, we actually saw a slight dip down in index prices because of the way paper had worked its way through in the back half of 2020. On the acquisition itself, as you rightly say, you know, the mill is in ramp-up phase.
You know, I think you'd expect it to get to 500,000 tons sometime, probably not necessarily, maybe in 2022, but not a million miles away from that, but certainly in 2023 in terms of full ramp-up. This year for us, because it'll complete in the fourth quarter, probably very little contribution to earnings. If you took it and Peru and Mexico all together, you know, you're probably talking EUR 10 million-EUR 15 million in the round in terms of incremental EBITDA. And then to your point, I suppose, you know, sort of go back to the point Saverio made in his presentation, which is we bought this thing well below replacement value.
So if we think about a multiple of for this particular plant in the context of a cycle in our normal industry, and you can take any input cost, any output cost you want, it's you know it's six times and below when you add in synergies. So a fantastic piece of kit to get. But I think what is also important to remember here is the bigger benefits for this relate to both the integrated model and the continued strength of that, but also what's been a feature, certainly over the last year and continues to be a feature, which is security of supply. I mean, if we're thinking about differentiation and how we are you know better than others, then it's around that kind of security supply piece and the ability to continue to do that.
I suppose the growth we've seen, and as Saverio talked about, the short position we now see, this is a necessity. And we, we've executed. I think, you know, if you track back to quarter one or the year-end, I mean, the question we got a lot was: What are you gonna do if paper continues to be the way it is? And, well, sort of, here's your answer. We, we've kind of solved that particular equation, but more importantly, we've also retained the option for further internal investment, as growth kind of continues into the future. So I know that's not probably not the pinpoint answer you want, Dave, but I think it's better to think about this thing as kind of six times and below.
If you consider where our trading multiple is, it's just a super deal all around.
David O'Brien (Analyst)
No, that's very clear. Look, it's a phenomenal multiple. If I could tag on one additional, if I could. In terms of bringing that capacity from 500,000 to the 600,000 potential, is that a material capital outlay?
Ken Bowles (CFO)
No, I think it's around EUR 20 million in the round. It's a very small number.
David O'Brien (Analyst)
Brilliant. Okay, that's great. Thanks very much, guys.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Cole Hathorn from Jefferies. Please go ahead, the line is open.
Cole Hathorn (Analyst)
... Morning, thanks very much for taking my question. Just one longer question on the European margin divisions. I mean, if you look at this H1, you're at 16% EBITDA margins when, you know, costs are higher, and you still haven't been able to push through your box pricing as much as you'd like, and you're gonna get into next year. But this compares to 2011 to 2016 of, let's say, 13%-15% EBITDA margins. I mean, it seems like you've got this structural benefit from higher margins and higher return on capital employed through the cycle. Could you talk to some of the drivers of what's taken this margin progression from where it was to where it is today?
Kind of indicate that kind of higher margins and return on capital employed through the cycle is the first question. And then the second question's around, you know, supply and demand in containerboard. You've talked about low inventory levels. You've talked about good demand. Where do you see the market into 2022? I think 2021 remains tight, but how do you see the supply and demand balance next year into 2022? Thank you.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
I think they're both for me, but Ken or Saverio jump in. With regard to the margin progression, Cole, you know, I suppose that's just a lot of work over a long period of time. We've continued to invest behind our business. We've closed less efficient facilities. We've invested behind better facilities. We've continued to innovate, we've continued to, you know, gain customers. So, it's a combination of things, but, if the question is, are we structurally different? I mean, this company is unrecognizable to what it was ten years ago and five years ago, because we are continuing to upgrade our assets and then upgrade our efficiency levels.
So we continue to do cost takeout plans, so we continue to, as I say, innovate and make sure that we get charged for our products. Sorry, we charge the correct amount for our products, and we tend not to chase volume for volume's sake. I mean, we give our customers a fantastic service, a fantastic product, and leading innovation, and we expect that we get a reasonable return for it. And, you know, we've been, you know, our medium-term plan of five years ago, or six years ago now, is well implemented, and that's done all of those things that you've said have structurally brought the margins upwards by a considerable amount. And we'd feel comfortable that we're gonna continue that progression as we go forward.
The second question was on the market. What, what's the second question, Cole? Sorry, I was just
Saverio Mayer (CEO of Europe)
Supply demand for 2022.
Cole Hathorn (Analyst)
Yes.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
You know, I think overall, Cole, we would... I'm certainly very bullish on 2022, because I think what you see is, you see, assuming there's no bad variants, again, or something worse than what we currently see, you know, the economies are opening up. There's plenty of spending powers. There's, you know, stimulus coming into the world, both from the Americas and in Europe. We haven't even seen the start of the stimulus package out of Europe that's been allocated to the countries. In the Americas, if there is an infrastructure bill that's passed, most of the workers that'll be doing that work on the roads and the bridges are Latin American workers, and they will send money home to their...
Traditionally, they send money home to their native countries and their families. So we would expect to see very strong consumption next year, which will lead to very strong demand in addition to the drivers of sustainability and e-commerce. So I'm not at all bearish. That's not to say I'm right, you know, but you know, my own view is that we would expect to see strong demand as we move forward.
Certainly, all of the indications, and Saverio, you can talk to this if you want, all of the indications from our customer base, all of the positioning that we're doing with our customers, is that we expect to see a huge amount of new volume coming into our system in Europe and the Americas because of the customers' destocking needs and demands for our product. But Saverio, do you wanna comment on that?
Saverio Mayer (CEO of Europe)
I think I can only add that during all my contacts with the big brand owners, I mean, this is exactly how they see it. They see it accelerating and investing. They are investing heavily to keep up with the acceleration, and so for what is visible today, we cannot expect nothing else than a very good level of activity going forward.
Cole Hathorn (Analyst)
Thank you.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
Ken, do you wanna add it?
Ken Bowles (CFO)
No, I think the only thing to add on supply-demand, Cole, is that when you look to next year, there's no new machines starting up, so what's coming into the market is just continued ramp-up of existing projects, against, you know, where we sit today, which is inventory is well below what we'd consider to be, you know, balanced levels.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
It's actually interesting, Cole, when we hear of some machine having an outage, you know, it creates panic in the marketplace because it takes, you know, two or three days out of the system, and that's lost tonnage, and everybody starts scrambling because the market is really, really that tight, and our own problems that we had in Piteå in June were certainly unhelpful to our system because, you know, we lost, I think it was about 15,000 tons or 16,000 tons of kraftliner, which we didn't expect to lose, and that has created a large hole for us to try and fill, which thankfully in July, we've bridged some of that because they've run pretty well.
But still, it's when you have any shorter disruption to supply right now, it is very problematic. I think as well to look forward is that when if the container market, as in the shipping container market, which is somewhat normalized, there would be a lot of export demand for our European product of waste-based testliner or our linerboard, because this is at the end of the day, you know, the world is still growing strongly in containerboard, and there's as I say very little of it available. Hello?
Operator (participant)
Okay.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
So our next question comes from the line of Mikael Doepel from UBS. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Mikael Doepel (Analyst)
Thank you, and good morning, everybody. A couple of questions. First of all, on the European Commission's Fit for 55 package and the forest strategy, what would you say are the most crucial issues for the paper and packaging industry there? And what is your initial take on the proposals? And then secondly, if we think about the Verzuolo acquisition in the context of the earlier announced EUR 1.2 billion-EUR 1.4 billion investment, which also included containerboard capacity increases through debottlenecking, has this number changed now? I.e., is this acquisition taking away some of that earlier planned CapEx spend? Thank you.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
On the first point, I'll let Ken answer, Mikael, but on the second point, the answer is: you know, we'd expect this to be really on top of what we plan to do. You know, our results are higher than anticipated, and we think we can easily afford this within our particular framework. We need the paper. We have other paper capacity announcements, which we can delay a couple, and we will. They'll be around the edges that we'll delay a small amount of capital implementations for additional capacity as we absorb this mill. But that's really around the edge of stuff.
And as Saverio said, or as Ken said, that, you know, we have the potential to upgrade a paper machine in our Parenco mill, which we will probably do at some point in the future, but it's probably later rather than sooner because of this acquisition. So, I think this is probably in addition to what we've planned, or sorry, not probably, is in addition to what we planned, because this gives us earnings straight away. It gives us a capability to serve our customers straight away, and is a big win for the company. With regard to the first point, Ken, on sustainability.
Ken Bowles (CFO)
Sure. Hey, Mikael. I suppose our own plans are very much in line with what the EU has kind of outlined. You know, that fifty-five by twenty thirty is very much what we would have on our own sites, and as you know, we've always benchmarked ourselves against the two thousand and five baseline anyway. So, you know, what we're probably ahead of really where regulations are coming out, because we've been doing it for so long. You know, this isn't our. You know, we haven't come to this lately. We've our fourteenth year of SDR, you know, tenth year of assurance. It's been a constant focus.
We've always had a keen eye on how our business and our industry sits, and particularly Smurfit Kappa sits in the context of its connection with both nature, the community, and wider society. So, you know, what we see coming out of Europe, it doesn't trouble us. I actually think it's supportive to the overall case for paper packaging being a sustainable industry and very much fits into that, you know, renewable, recyclable, in some cases, reusable, and most certainly biodegradable in terms of its product range.
Mikael Doepel (Analyst)
Okay. Thank you very much.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Due to the time limit, we will take the last question from here. So our last question come from the line from Sam Bland from JPMorgan. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Sam Bland (Analyst)
Hey, morning. Thanks. I've got two questions, please. The first one is on e-commerce, or, you know, we've had a kind of step change up in box volume. Do you mainly attribute that to e-commerce because of the pandemic? And just any comments on sort of how sustainable that e-commerce volume might be as we, you know, hopefully come out of the pandemic. And the second question is, I think you said earlier that sort of box prices were now kind of set for H2, but shouldn't there still be some, you know, whether it's sort of three-month type index contracts or the more freely negotiated volume where, you know, you can still get further box price increases on top of what's already been agreed in the second half of the year? Thank you.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
Yeah, I mean, you're entirely right. I mean, when we're talking about the second half of... We already see the momentum of what's already been agreed, it's going to happen. But of course, as paper prices have risen in July and are rising again in August, we will start to negotiate the free market pricing on those and get some of that relatively quickly. So yes, is the answer. We will have more box pricing in the second half from free market stuff. That, for example, if you take the July and August ones, we probably won't see the benefit of those until the first part of next year, so, with the contracted to a lot of the contracted tonnage.
The answer to your question is yes, we will have more box pricing in the second half from free market customers. With regard to e-commerce, I don't think. You know, I think that the e-commerce situation has just been an acceleration. I think that we're already seeing very strong e-commerce growth from a number of different customers over to 2019. That has accelerated because of the pandemic. But I don't think there's a single commentator in the world that's saying that Amazon is gonna go negative growth or any one of those companies that are doing e-commerce are going to pull back. I think the world is now set for using e-commerce as a situation that is gonna continue to grow.
Whether it grows at pandemic-type levels or not, that, that's obviously something that you'd have to take a view on. I would say it's probably not going to take that kind of massive growth, but it will still continue to grow strongly. Is there anyone other?
Saverio Mayer (CEO of Europe)
Well, I think every single brand and every is exploring to open their sales to this channel, so I see no way this is gonna slow down. Also, it's not the only sales channel of distribution, and also the others are also the retail part is having its satisfaction. So I see e-commerce is only part of that, and it's gonna be there to stay, but it's not the only one.
Mikael Doepel (Analyst)
Yeah, understood. Thank you.
Tony Smurfit (Group President and CEO)
Thank you. So that being the last question, I would like to thank you all, as always, for your time today and, of course, for your ongoing support of the Smurfit Kappa business. I sincerely hope we've given you a sense of the exciting journey that Smurfit Kappa has been on and is on. In the first half, the Smurfit Kappa team has navigated, as we have said, many challenges, and as I've said, we have delivered to our customers. Amazing how many customers don't notice the problems in our industry because of our tremendous delivery record with them, and I was talking to Saverio yesterday about a particular customer, where they have problems in every area with the exception of corrugated boxes, 'cause we've been able to deliver to them. So that's a testament to our company.
We're not perfect by any stretch of the imagination, but we're doing a really good job in delivering for our customers. You know, the customer is central to our capital allocation decisions, and most of our recent acquisitions are either following customer growth or delivering security of supply for our customers. And that includes the Verzuolo mill, which is really truly a fantastic deal for this company, recognized internally and externally already by the number of things that we're hearing. So while Smurfit Kappa is never complacent, I think you can gather that we're increasingly excited by our prospects and the continued opportunities that are ahead of us. So I'd like to thank you all again.
I wish you all a very good day, and hope that you have a good summer holidays, and let's hope that this pandemic is behind us sooner rather than later. So take care, all of you, and stay safe.