Smurfit Westrock - Q3 2021

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Welcome to the Smurfit Kappa Group 2021 first nine months trading update. Throughout the call, all participants will be in listen-only mode, and afterwards, there'll be a question and answer session. Just to remind you, this conference is being recorded. Today, I am pleased to present Tony Smurfit, CEO. Please begin your meeting.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, and thank you all for taking the time to join us today. I'm joined on the call by our Group CFO, Ken Bowles, and before commencing, we would refer you to the note on forward-looking statements set out in our trading update, which also applies to our discussion today. Please also note that Ken and I are calling in from separate locations, so please bear with us should there be any technical issues. I'm happy to report that Smurfit Kappa continues to deliver across all performance measures, with revenue growth for the nine-month period of 15% to EUR 7.287 billion, EBITDA growth of 10% to EUR 1.235 billion, and a margin of 17%. From a demand perspective, we remain effectively sold out.

Continuing the trend of the first half, the group had year-to-date corrugated growth of 9% in Europe and 11% in the Americas versus 2020. Interestingly, set against 2019 as a comparator, the group had corrugated growth of 9% in Europe and 10% in the Americas. These growth levels represent a demonstrable step change within our industry. As I've said before, our product is increasingly well-positioned in a more sustainable world, being renewable, recyclable, and biodegradable, and in certain cases, reusable. In addition, e-commerce is now a feature of our daily lives, with the pandemic accelerating an already established channel. Similar to 2020, 2021 has been characterized by security of supply concerns. In Smurfit Kappa, I'm proud how we have worked relentlessly to ensure our customers have experienced limited supply issues. The year has also been characterized by rising input costs.

When we spoke to you at the half year, we indicated that recovered fiber headwinds would be approximately EUR 450 million in 2021 over 2020, which remains unchanged. At that time, we did not anticipate the sharp increase in energy costs. The group has a continuing hedging policy in place that will limit this additional cost to approximately EUR 80 million in the second half of the year, resulting in a EUR 180 million increase in costs year-on-year. These input costs have led and will lead to further paper price increases, which are being recovered through our corrugated system. Nevertheless, we still anticipate delivering significant EBITDA growth in 2021. To strengthen SKG's market leadership and to meet growing customer demand, in the first nine months, we have approved some EUR 600 million of capital projects across the group.

Through our recent capital investments and paper acquisitions, we believe our European mill system is now capable of offering security of supply and supporting customer growth for the next few years. During the year, we've approved 48 new converting machines and six new corrugators across our markets in our converting business. This demonstrates our continuing focus in our conversion capacity to develop the many, many significant opportunities we have to provide our customers with security of supply, with value, with innovation for the sustainable packaging in the markets in which we operate. We're also delighted to extend our geographic reach with recent acquisitions in Mexico and Peru. What should be clear to those of you that have been following Smurfit Kappa is our commitment to sustainability. That commitment is both from a product perspective and the manner in which we produce the products.

The group has also aligned its sustainability ambitions and targets into its financing. Firstly, by embedding its targets via key performance indicators into its existing EUR 1.35 billion revolving credit facility, creating a sustainably linked RCF, and more recently, through the launch of the group's Green Finance Framework and the issuance of EUR 1 billion in green bonds under that framework. EUR 500 million at 0.5% and EUR 500 million at 1%, with an 8- and 12-year maturity, respectively. These are the lowest coupons in the group's history and indeed in our rating category. My concluding comments are, and have been pretty consistent through the year. While input costs have risen to levels that are both unprecedented and unexpected, current industry conditions are very strong. Today, we see numerous opportunities across our business, which we are investing in from a position of enhanced financial strength.

Even against that backdrop of significantly higher input costs, we expect to deliver EBITDA growth in 2021, in line with current market expectations. I am very happy to say that Smurfit Kappa has never been in better shape, and I'm very excited about the opportunities and prospects for our business. Thank you, operator, and we're now happy to take any questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please dial zero one on your telephone keypads now to enter the queue. Once your name has been announced, you can ask your question. If you find it's answered before it's your turn to speak, you can dial zero two to cancel. So once again, that's zero one to ask a question or zero two if you need to cancel. There'll be a brief pause now while we register your questions. And our first question comes from the line of Lars Kjellberg of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Lars Kjellberg (Director)

Thank you and good morning. A couple of questions from me. First and foremost, can you comment on your trajectory for pricing in Q3? I think you mentioned 5% up in the second quarter. And then I'm gonna just segue into the growth that you mentioned, Tony, kind of the EUR 600 million that you've approved year to date. How much of that have you actually spent already? And what sort of contribution should we expect from the investments now approved in 2022? And Verzuolo, of course, you just closed the deal, I guess in October. Can you share with us the economics, near term, but equally so, how you think about that mill into your system and the overall contribution you'd expect in 2022, 2023, as you fully integrate this mill and expand the capacity added?

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Okay, I'll let Ken take the first one, but let me just talk about Verzuolo for a second. Let me say I've been there twice now, obviously before the acquisition and just recently last week. And I have to say that the mill is truly world scale. It's a fantastic mill. Obviously, the position that they are in in energy is going to hurt them a little bit in the first month or so, because energy prices are so high and they're not hedged at all. So, they will need the price recovery, which is going through to start making decent money in the mill. And obviously, we've adjusted many of the prices that that mill was previously selling at.

So as we go forward, we remain hugely excited about the potential. It fits us like a glove down to our southern markets, Spain, France, and Italy, where we are very short. We're also short of paper in the Americas, and so the Savona port, when the containers situation eases up, is an ideal shipping area for us. So, you know, it will be a very large contributor through the cycle, mill for us, given its scale, given its opportunities, given the opportunities we have to reduce the cost, and given the fact that we will integrate not everything out of the mill, because we will keep out some outside customers.

But, you know, we will, we will, we see a huge opportunity in the mill, this year, next year, and going forward, because, you know, it will run at around 500,000 tons, towards the back end of next year, and then we'll make some capital investments to get it up to the six hundred thousand. With regard to the growth, the approvals, Lars, as you could probably appreciate, very little of those approvals will be benefiting this year. Almost none, because the length of time to get machines, given the market conditions, is, you know, anywhere from nine months to 18 months, depending on the kind of conversion machines we're talking about.

But we should start seeing some of the benefits into next year, but the full benefit of that will probably come into 2023, as we ramp up the capacity onto those machines. We should expect to get most of those 38 machines into the system next year. But the benefit will be during the year to some small extent, but really into 2023 will be the full benefit. With regard to pricing, Ken?

Ken Bowles (Group CFO)

Yeah, morning, Lars. As we would have talked about at the half year, you know, sequentially Q2 and Q1 was 5%, on the same basis, Q3 over Q2 would be 7%. And then just in terms of overall CapEx, in the context of the 600 approvals, we're still looking at, you know, a full year CapEx number in that kind of EUR 750 million-EUR 800 million space. And as Tony says, in terms of what that means in the context of 2022 and beyond, we'll hang on until we do our budgets, and sure we'll chat to you again in February.

Lars Kjellberg (Director)

Just one short follow-up. On the growth prospects for next year, of course, this year has been extremely tight. You've recently, over the past couple of weeks, announced a couple of sort of, plastics replacements, packaging solutions. Can you give us any sense of what you're seeing in your pipeline of sustainable packaging and potential plastics replacement and new business in next year? And do you have room to take that on?

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

We will have room to take it on, Lars. I'd say that, you know, we still see customers hugely engaged. I mean, even as close as yesterday, we had a large customer looking to take on some of our innovations in replacement of plastic tubs into corrugated. There's one fundamental issue right now is that most companies are really fundamentally worried about supply chain in getting their existing products into the shops, and so I suppose the urgency level at this moment in time is not as it was, let's say, two years ago, pre-pandemic.

Everyone's gonna do it, everyone's committed to doing it, everybody wants to do it, but at the moment, for many of our customers' number one priority is A, get supply, which, you know, I have to say that we have, for the most part, been really good at. I mean, we are not their problem, and that has given a huge positive edge to Smurfit Kappa as we go forward, that people will see us as the secure supplier of packaging when many other companies are letting them down. The acquisition of the Verzuolo mill, again, assures our customers, and many have commented to me about it, that they're assured that we're continuing to invest in capacity so that we can meet their growth.

I think that, you know, from the forward-looking for sustainable packaging, it's gonna be, I mean, as big as we thought, or if not bigger, and I think the whole events of this week, you know, around COP26, again, make sure that sustainability is top of people's mind, and, you know, our products, you know, we have the right product and the right time for this, and so I see nothing but optimism in that whole area, and the recent announcements, small as they are, are just continuing to build on the pile of sustainable projects that are coming forward.

Lars Kjellberg (Director)

Very clear. Thank you.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Thanks, Lars. Any further questions?

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from the line of Alan Smylie at Davy. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Allan Smylie (Research Analyst)

Hi, good morning, Tony. Good morning, Ken. It's Alan at Davy. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two, please, one on demand and one on box pricing. So it seems like demand is very strong again in Q3, and it'd be helpful to get just some color on demand trends across your customer base, so FMCG, industrial, and e-commerce through Q3, and you know, how that feels into the fourth quarter. And then on box pricing, I had a specific question around the mechanics of how you're dealing with energy cost inflation, because we're seeing obviously a number of paper producers adding energy surcharges. I'm just wondering how that feeds through to your index business. Is that just a lagged function still of paper prices, or do the energy surcharges also feed through? Thank you.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

On the demand side, you can take the price and Ken, take it. On the demand side, I wouldn't say I could be very specific about where's really good and where's really bad, because it's all really good, Alan. I mean, you know, we are seeing some sectors slightly, somewhat affected by the chip shortages. So, for example, television manufacturers or car component suppliers, you know, who are not suffering, but they've slowed down because they can't get enough chips to the car makers can't get enough chips. But that's around the edges. I mean, you know, it's been more than made up by all the other sectors, FMCG, e-commerce, all the projects that we have, all the innovations, normal demands, reopening trade for many restaurants.

You know, we don't see any. You know, you might see a blip in a particular factory that we have because they're more reliant on, you know, heavy-duty packaging for cars, or you might see a television factory. But in the round, we just don't see anything, and indeed, you know, in some countries, you know, like Colombia, demand is completely excessive at the moment. There's only one weak country, and that's Brazil. It's been weak for the last five or six months, but seems to be improving each month, and now with the current stimulus the government's talking about putting in, again, we expect that to revert, but you know, our results are still very good there.

But the only weak country, I would say, that we have, not necessarily excess capacity, but where we could do with a bit more work is Brazil, because we've been putting in some investment there to follow the growth. So, you know, overall, I couldn't give you any area other than around the edges that is suffering. Ken, do you wanna take the box pricing issue?

Ken Bowles (Group CFO)

Sure. Morning, Alan. I suppose, you know, the surcharge model isn't necessarily a function of our own pricing model. I suppose to answer your question, the short way, yes, yes, it's just the energy cost is a normal kind of lag recovery into boxes because, you know, you will have seen price increase, particularly, say, for the first of November, price increase of 60 on both grades is predominant, if not all, to recover energy costs. And so that will naturally feed into the calculation of the index and therefore naturally feed into the calculation of the box price. So, no more than, to be fair, inflationary costs add on, too, which are being recovered around the edges.

So if the focus is not just necessarily on OCC, but also energy and all inflationary costs to be recovered through the box system.

Allan Smylie (Research Analyst)

That's perfect.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Yeah, I think it's important, Alan, to say that, you know, our business is in a sold-out position, primarily everywhere. And, you know, obviously, in that position, we're making sure that we recover as much as we can. Obviously, we have some contracts which we'd rather not have in an increasing market. You know, but you have to live with those for six months, a year, whatever they are, and then eventually they revert with material price increases when you go to negotiate, because in a sense, the customer needs us as much as we need them. So, you know, the current conditions are very strong and, you know, people are coming to Smurfit Kappa because we are offering security of supply.

Supply chains themselves across the world are changing, and will continue to change. They were already starting to change pre-pandemic, but, you know, we see very significant growth in the maquiladora region in northern Mexico because people are onshoring from China because of the container issue. And it's just a question of time until that stream becomes a flood, because that's what's going to happen. And that's why we're investing in new corrugators up there, new investments, and developments so that we can take advantage of that. But so the macro trends are really in our favor at the moment, and as long as the world stays round, I don't expect that to change.

Allan Smylie (Research Analyst)

That's very clear, Tony. Thank you.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Thanks, Alan.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David O'Brien at Goodbody. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

David O'Brien (Head of Industrials Equity Research)

Good morning, guys. Just two questions for me, please. Firstly, just on box pricing again, sorry. It appears that the lag between recovering higher cost through box pricing has shortened. I just wonder if you could give us some color behind what's driving that at the moment, and is it sustainable? And then secondly, to add to, you know, what Lars was discussing, you know, we've seen the child lock box for laundry pods kind of stands out as one, which no further evidence of that conversion from plastic to paper. You know, how has the Smurfit Kappa offering on primary packaging solutions to customers evolved over the last number of years, and how prevalent is primary packaging within the business at the moment?

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Woo! That's a big one. Okay. On the box pricing, you know, I wouldn't say it's changed that much, David. I mean, I suppose with why you're seeing some acceleration is probably because we're going to our free market customers quicker to recover these increases which have happened in quick succession. So that sort of masks probably the normal evolution of box pricing in certain of our you know, contracted customers. So we're going quicker on the free market and recovering more because we're recovering inflationary costs as well with them. So that's probably masking the fact that there's not that much difference with regard to the lag there.

I would say that some customers are very understanding, not all, but some customers are understanding that these costs that we've absorbed are huge, and even if we have a contract, some of them are, you know, giving us increases in advance of the contracted period. You know, obviously, we ask and sometimes we succeed and sometimes we don't. I think it's. There's no real change in that whole area. With regard to primary packaging, you know, I think corrugated has become more primary over the years, as we go on to, you know, shelf-ready packaging. And the evolution of the sustainability agenda is going to make us even more primary.

But, you know, I think, you know, you only have to look at supermarkets and you'll see how many products are sitting in corrugated trays, which is the transport medium to on the shelves, because it's obviously cheaper for supermarkets to just rip open the front of a box, which looks good, and put the products on the shelf that way, rather than decant them with, you know, labor, which, A, doesn't exist, or B, is too expensive. And so, you know, we become primary just by the evolution of labor, I would say. But with regard to the specifics of, you know, sustainability, I think that, you know, of course, where plastic. You can go around any amount of supermarkets, and you will see an enormous amount of plastic packaging.

To refer to your child lock example, I mean, that's obviously an innovation that we have, but we have a number of that in that areas. You know, that would. I would say a lot of those plastic tubs will change over to corrugated in time. But as I mentioned to Lars, you know, unfortunately, everybody's sold out and, you know, getting product to market is the primary objective right now. So we have loads of these projects in the pipeline. It's a question of when they'll land.

David O'Brien (Head of Industrials Equity Research)

Great. Thanks, Tony.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Thanks, David.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Cole Hathorn at Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Cole Hathorn (VP of Equity Research)

Morning. Thank you for taking my question. Just two questions on my side, one around demand, another one around inventory levels. Firstly, on the demand side, some of your—the U.S. reporters have called out kind of supply chain issues impacting demand in the U.S., but the commentary we're getting from the European side is demand trends continue to be really strong and people are sold out. So I'd just like to hear your thoughts on the difference between the two markets of the U.S. versus Europe. And then similarly on inventory levels, the U.S. probably normalized their inventory levels and containerboard slightly faster.

I mean, they ran their mills very hard in the third quarter, whereas in Europe, the feedback we're getting is inventory levels continue to remain low, and I was just wondering what you're seeing from the inventory standpoint and any color you can provide there. Thank you.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Okay, Cole. On the inventory side, you know, demand is still very strong in Europe, and, you know, I mean, the markets are similar, but they're not the same, as the U.S. We don't see any significant imports coming from the U.S. to Europe. Obviously, there's the container issue that makes it even more expensive to ship from the U.S. to the world, so to speak, but and the availability of containers. So, we don't see any imports, you know, to any great extent coming in. Our own inventory is low for the reasons we've already said, and you've just alluded to. Our demand remains very strong, and there's been no real change to that, except around the edges.

I would say to the issue you say about supply chains. I mean, there's no question that supply chain issues have hurt us, and they've cost us, you know, many millions during the third quarter across the countries because, you know, we are having to ship paper from one factory to another. We are having to run grades of paper to meet demand that we wouldn't necessarily do at a higher cost. We are facing ourselves some truck driver shortages, and our customers are seeing the same. So there's no question there are supply chains that are being disrupted, but we ourselves have been able to manage through it. I mean, we are seen as a very reliable partner for our transportation companies.

And so thus far, I mean, you never know what's gonna be around the corner, but thus far, we have not experienced too many great difficulties with the supply chain. Some of our customers do, and that affects demand from a week to week. Or they, you know, one of our larger beer companies had a problem with getting glass, so we lost some volume, I think it was last month in October, because they had to stop the factory. So, you know, there are always issues with various different customers that we have their own problems, but, you know, it's not affecting us as of yet, and didn't affect us in October, other than cost.

Cole Hathorn (VP of Equity Research)

Thank you. And if you just allow me one follow-up is, I mean, if I just think about your, your model being integrated and the fact that you've invested in a lot of your, your mills over time, as well as your, your box plant network, I mean, how well positioned are you versus the smaller containerboard producers in the market? I mean, are we in a situation where, players like yourselves that have invested and reduced your cost of your paper mills are just gonna be so much better positioned versus the, the top end of the cost curve, and that cost curve effectively steepening in containerboard because of energy, because of logistics, et cetera?

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

I mean, I think the integrated model has proved itself, Cole, that, you know, as we've said before, we ride containerboard on the up, and we suffer when corrugated, and equally, when containerboard goes down, we retain in corrugated longer. So, you know, our whole, you know, raison d'être, if you want, is that we are an innovative packaging solution provider for our customers, sixty-five thousand customers. And behind that, we continue to improve our mill system beyond recognition to what it was even five, six, seven years ago. And now the Verzuolo mill is just another big addition to the top of the, you know, the top of the tree, so to speak, in cost advantage.

And it doesn't mean that all our mills are the lowest cost per se versus someone who's putting in a 10-and-a-half-meter paper machine. But because of integration and because of the way we run our machines, and because of the supply chain that we exist within integration with the exception of moments where you have very, very strong demand, and you're having to duck and dive in paper mills and run different grades. But you know, we run our mills with a very low cost because of supply chain you know, reductions and you know, performance optimization on the paper machines. And that's what gives us the edge through the cycle together with our innovation.

I mean, you know, when you've got the pool, Cole, of a 1000+ designers around the world, and we see this whenever we go in to buy a company. For example, the company we just bought in Peru, I mean, it's like Aladdin's cave for them to see all the opportunities they have to look at all our designs and help. And then, you know, of course, then it's for us, for them to execute at the right margin with their salespeople to get more business. And that's why we're installing new corrugator there, and that's why we're developing that business quickly, because we see a lot of opportunity down there with the packaging knowledge that we have. So that is the advantage of Smurfit Kappa, is yes, we're very low on the cost curve.

Yes, the integration model works, but also we've got a bulk of data and skill that no one else can replicate.

Cole Hathorn (VP of Equity Research)

Thank you.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Thanks, Cole.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next call comes from the line of Mikael Doepel of UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Mikael Doepel (Executive Director)

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. A couple of questions from my side. Firstly, on the volumes. Now, Q4 last year was a fairly strong quarter. I think your volumes were up by about 6% year over year. Now, given what you see in the market currently, would you expect to beat that quarter and show growth this year, as well?

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Yes. Well, I mean, at the moment we are. I can tell you about October was a stronger month than last year by, you know, a decent margin. So obviously, we have to wait and see December and November, but, you know, our order books are full. We have added capacity during the year, so you know, I would expect to see growth. I don't know what level it will be over the 6%, but, you know, I think that, you know, if October is anything to go by, it'll still be very good growth. But, you know, we'll wait and see. December, Mikael, is always a funny month, you know, but this year I think it's a longer month than normal.

So, you know, I think we would expect to have a good quarter, notwithstanding the fact that energy is, you know, a big cost to us in the quarter, which we will progressively recover. But, you know, aside from that, volumes are very solid, very strong, at the moment.

Mikael Doepel (Executive Director)

Okay. That's, that's very clear. Then in terms of the price increases. Now you called out the 2% sequential box price that you got Q2 compared to Q1, and now you've got another 7% into Q3. At the same time, we have seen very, very high cost inflation across various inputs and logistics and so on. So I was just wondering, going forward, what kind of a quantum of price increases would you still need to recover the input cost inflation over the next couple of years? Are we talking double digits from here or something else? Is there any color you could give on that?

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Because that's such a difficult question, Mikael, I'm gonna give that to Ken.

Ken Bowles (Group CFO)

Thanks, Tony. Morning, Mikael. I'll give you the economic answer. Just to correct on, you know, one thing there, that the sequential Q2 over Q1 was 5% rather than 2%, and the Q3 over Q2 is exactly the same, 7%. I suppose the short answer is, Mikael, we never kind of front-load on box price increases, because clearly, as you know, there's a ton of commercial sensitivity around that. And indeed, you, I think it would probably limit our pursuit of the sum of our ambitions if we did that, not sure we're gonna do that.

I think what we can say is, you know, as we kind of noted earlier, whether it's recovered fiber or general inflation costs, or indeed energy in the current market, they're all progressively being recovered, as we sort of move through the system. Against that backdrop of where we sit now with, you know, container board being kinda up EUR 360 a ton year-on-year, and that kind of naturally feeding through the rest of the system. So, we don't have a target. We're just saying to do as good as we possibly can. And as Tony noted earlier, strong demand backdrop, tight inventories, good outlook, so the conditions are fairly well set for us.

Mikael Doepel (Executive Director)

Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Yeah. That sounds good. Maybe then just a final question on the containerboard inventory side. As you mentioned, they seem to be quite tight still in Europe. It could even be below critical levels, where we stand today. And as in the previous question, we have seen U.S. normalizing already. When would you and I know, understand it's a tough question, but when would you expect the European inventory levels to start to normalize? Is it fair to assume that you're gonna go well into next year before that can happen, given what you're seeing on the demand side right now? Or how do you think about that?

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Yeah, I mean, if demand continues, there's not a whole lot of new capacity coming on stream in 2022. You know, there's the ramp up of various capacities that were introduced in 2021. If you remember, Mikael, we were all thinking there would be a lot of new capacity coming in 2021, which would be very difficult to absorb, and that's been fully absorbed by the market and indeed, you know, critically short in certain points of the year. I would say that, you know, our acquisition of Verzuolo has allowed us to ensure security of supply for our own box plants next year. I think if you have any sort of normal demands, next year will continue to be tight.

And thereafter, sometime in 2023, 2024, you're gonna see some of the new capacity come in, and then it'll just depend on how the market is and how it's able to absorb the capacity that comes in. But you know, unless you have a dark view of the world and demands, then I would suggest that containerboard is gonna remain tight in Europe for the foreseeable future. But you know, that's my current guess. You know, I don't see any reason for it to change.

Mikael Doepel (Executive Director)

Right. Right. Well, that's very clear. Those were my questions. Thank you very much.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Thanks, Mikael.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And we have one final question in the queue, and that's from the line of Sam Bland at JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Sam Bland (Equity Research)

Hiya, thanks. Thanks for taking questions. I've got three, if I can. The first one was on the sort of freely negotiated prices. These, you said you're going kind of at those quicker than you would. Is there any real sort of pushback against those price increases, or do customers basically just realize that, you know, everyone else has got the same problem as well? Second question was on whether there's sort of indexed prices, particularly the twelve-month index prices. Are those sort of evenly spread through the year, the renegotiation dates, or are they sort of clustered around a particular month? And then the last question was, your volume's very strong. I was wondering whether, do you think the market's also very strong, or maybe you're gaining a little bit of share?

I was wondering particularly whether, you know, some smaller independent box makers might just be struggling to get the paper they need? Thank you.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Thanks, Sam. Listen, I mean, no customer likes price increases, but the quantum of price increases and the amount of times we're going to customers is, you know, an unusual time, but it's also unusual across all their product lines that they're purchasing. So, you know, I would say the pushback we get is limited other than the fact that they don't like it. You know, but at the end of the day, you know, we don't like the price increases that we've had in energy and wastepaper and starch and pallets and everything else that we have. So, you know, the reality is, there is no other option for us than to go and push these prices quickly, and get them through quickly, and that's what we're doing.

Pushback, I would say, you know, don't like it, but it's because everyone else is doing it to them, you know, it's easier than it has been in the past. I think that with regard to index, there's some degree of evenly spread. There will be a lot that will be year to year. You know, we made some, let's say, less than good deals last year that will come off at the start of this next year, and there will be material price increases with certain of those customers. I'd say it's sort of weighted towards the fourth quarter, as you would expect, as in new pricing coming in, you know, first month, second month of the year.

With regard to box volumes and share, I think it's fair to say that, you know, we didn't have a whole lot of paper. Now that we have paper, we are in a position that we can go and get some more market share, and we've certainly seen many customers coming to Smurfit Kappa because of the supply security issue, which is probably the first time that customers have really realized, you know, how important it is to have a solid and steady packaging supplier like us. Now, many already have, but many perhaps didn't in the past and now are. As I said, we were with one customer yesterday, and they're doubling their volume with us, because of that particular issue.

So I think there is a realization out there that having a reliable packaging supplier is really important in these times of inflation. And price is not the number one issue. The number one issue is security of supply.

Sam Bland (Equity Research)

Yeah. Got it. Thank you very much.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Thank you. Okay. Is that it, Mark?

Operator (participant)

We have had some further questions come through, but I believe we've run out of time, so I'll hand back to you for the closing comments.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Okie dokie. Well, thank you all again for being on the call. We're really excited about the company's prospects. The capital allocation decisions we've made, together with the industry's long-term growth drivers, have really transformed the quality, scale, and reach of the Smurfit Kappa business. As I said, you know, already, we've never been in better shape, and we look forward to 2022 and beyond from a position of strength, and we see. We're very excited about the opportunities that we see. You know, I would, of course, like to give my thanks to all of the Smurfit Kappa team for delivering the performance that we're doing and for sustaining these prospects going forward.

I appreciate all your attention and appreciate you coming on the call, and look forward to seeing you again in person in the not too distant future. Thanks again, and good luck, and if I don't speak to you before Christmas, have a happy Christmas.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This now concludes the conference. Thank you all very much for attending. You may now disconnect your line.