Smurfit Westrock - Q4 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Hello, and welcome to the Smurfit Kappa Results Call. My name is Laura, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note, this call is being recorded, and for the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen-only. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of the call. This can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad to register your question. If you require assistance at any point, please press star zero and you will be connected to an operator. I will now hand you over to your host, Ciarán Potts, to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Ciarán Potts (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Laura. My name is Ciarán Potts. I'm Head of Investor Relations at Smurfit Kappa. Today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements about Smurfit Kappa's views of future business and financial performance, including forward earnings guidance and future market conditions. Today's discussion may also contain forward-looking statements about the company's pending combination with WestRock. These statements are based on management's current beliefs and expectations and are subject to various risks and uncertainties. It is possible that actual results may differ materially from those suggested by these forward-looking statements we may make. Factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements may be included in our earnings release issued today and are described in more detail in Smurfit Kappa's reports available on the National Storage Mechanism at fca.org.uk and on our website at smurfitkappa.com.

This call does not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, or a solicitation of any vote or approval. In connection with the potential combination between Smurfit Kappa and WestRock, the combined company, to be named Smurfit WestRock, will file with the SEC a registration statement that will include a proxy statement of WestRock that will also constitute a prospectus of Smurfit WestRock. The proxy statements, prospectus, and other relevant documents filed by Smurfit Kappa, Smurfit WestRock, and WestRock with the SEC will be available free of charge at www.smurfitkappa.com or westrock.com, as applicable, or at the SEC's website at sec.gov.

You should review such materials filed or to be filed with the SEC carefully because they contain or will contain important information about Smurfit Kappa, WestRock, Smurfit WestRock, the combination and related matters, including information about certain of their respective directors, executive officers, and other employees who may be deemed to be participants in the solicitation of proxies in connection with the combination and about their interest in the solicitation. I will now hand you over to Tony Smurfit, CEO of Smurfit Kappa Group.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Thanks, Ciarán. At the outset to note that while we will provide you with an update on the announced Smurfit WestRock combination, we cannot comment beyond that or what we've already said on announcements of September 12th. Subject to shareholder and regulatory approval, the transaction is expected to close in early July. Well, today I am absolutely delighted to be joined by my colleagues, Ken Bowles, who has over 30 years experience in Smurfit Kappa and has been our CFO the last eight years, is sitting on my left. Also, I'm delighted to be joined by Saverio Mayer and Laurent Sellier, who run our European and Americas businesses, respectively. Saverio has over 38 years in the company and has been running our European operations for the last eight years.

Laurent has over 30 years in the company and has been running our business in the Americas for the almost three years, and prior to that, he ran our European paper business for six years. For those of you that don't know me, I'm Tony Smurfit, CEO of Smurfit Kappa for the last eight years, and prior to that, I was COO of the group since 2002. As you know, when I became CEO, I set out a new vision for where I believe Smurfit Kappa should get to and what our approach to running our business is. The approach is baked into the unique performance-led culture that exists in the company, which is familial and with the guiding principles of loyalty, integrity, respect, and safety at work for all our people.

This vision, to be a globally admired business, dynamically and sustainably delivering secure and superior returns for all stakeholders, is something that all of us in Smurfit Kappa's management team aspire to every single day. While this vision is a journey and not a destination, it is something that we are indeed realizing. Since 2015, I believe Smurfit Kappa has been an effective allocator of capital. From this slide, you will see that we have invested EUR 6 billion over the last eight years in our business to continuously optimize our integrated operating model. This investment has reduced operating costs throughout our mill system and ensures that our corrugated system has the highest quality, service, and innovation capabilities for our customers. This investment has also allowed us to nurture and develop our higher-margin specialty business, which we have been expanding.

Acquisitions, which you all know are part of the Smurfit Kappa DNA, have over the past eight years amounted to close to EUR 2 billion. These acquisitions have been seamlessly integrated into our business, and each has either expanded our geographic or our product reach. Smurfit Kappa is truly a company that has been transformed over the period. We have delivered substantial free cash flow of over EUR 10 billion, and we've also delivered growing and a progressive dividend stream of EUR 2.2 billion for our shareholders. The result of our capital allocation decisions has been consistent delivery and outperformance across all of our metrics. We are proud to continue to deliver for our stakeholders with this improved performance. Equally, in line with our vision, we have consistently delivered on improving our balance sheet and ensuring secure and superior returns for our stakeholders.

As a result of our consistent delivery over a long period of time, our total shareholder return in excess of 150% since 2015 has significantly outperformed peer group averages. Of course, that said, as you know, all management in Smurfit Kappa are aligned with our stakeholders and our shareholders in the company. While we are happy, we are definitely not satisfied. Our aspirations and objectives are for much, much more. To achieve our ambitions of much more, there is only one way to attain this, and that is through our people. One of the strengths of Smurfit Kappa has been, and will continue to be, the fabulous owner-operator type culture that exists within our company.

This is proven by the fact that our top management cadre have over 24 years average tenure within the company, which brings serious knowledge and experience together with a proven capacity to perform. Looking at the next level of leadership, we see the same kind of tenure in our European business, where the top 9 have 25 years experience, and in the Americas, the top 12 have 22 years of average experience. This shows that our people are grounded in our values. Smurfit Kappa Group has a proven track record of attracting and retaining the best available talent. We continue to invest behind our people and have developed bespoke programs in INSEAD, Harvard, and other management development programs, ensuring the next generations of leaders is embedded in the Smurfit Kappa system and culture. I am sure some of you will have read about our announced combination with WestRock.

This is one of the most significant events in the Smurfit Kappa history. We have repeatedly said that our ambition was to be bigger in the United States, both to further balance our geographic position and to be a significant part of the world's largest paper-based packaging market. When the opportunity came to combine with a company like WestRock, I, the management team, and the board strongly believed that this was an opportunity not to be missed. It is a highly complementary business with a strong cultural fit, with compelling industrial, strategic, and financial logic. Together, we will create the global leader in sustainable packaging, and we will be the largest listed company in our sector by sales. Smurfit WestRock, with its expanded geographic reach, will offer many more opportunities for growth for our employees, as well as significant value creation opportunities for our stakeholders.

I am very happy to say that since September, we have worked very well with the WestRock management team, with integration planning progressing well. Of course, with a combination of this scale, there is plenty of hard work ahead for all parties. But combining the Smurfit Kappa team, together with the investments and actions recently undertaken by WestRock management, sets the foundation for a very bright future for Smurfit WestRock. With that, I'll hand you over to Ken Bowles, our CFO, to take you through the financials.

Ken Bowles (CFO)

Thank you, Tony, and good morning, everyone. In a moment, I'll take you through the group financial performance in 2023. Saverio and Laurent will talk about their respective regions, and I'll also spend some time on our capital allocation framework. Tony outlined, and you've heard us talk about this before, it's been central to the transformation of the business over the last number of years, both operationally and financially, and indeed, central to delivering on our sustainability goals and ambition. And lastly, I'll update you on the timetable to closing the proposed Smurfit WestRock combination. Turning now to slide 14 and the group's full year 2023 results, which represent an excellent outcome set against a challenging year for the wider industry.

This performance reflects the resilience of our integrated operating model, the ongoing benefits of our investment program, and the dedication and commitment of our people in providing our customers across 36 countries with the most innovative and sustainable packaging solutions. Group revenue was EUR 11.3 billion for the year, down 12% on 2022, or 11% lower on an underlying basis. Group EBITDA was EUR 2.08 billion, down 12% on the prior year or 9% lower on an underlying basis, reflecting lower earnings in Europe, partly offset by higher earnings in our Americas business.

While both revenue and EBITDA were lower, notably, the group EBITDA margin improved from 18.4% in 2022 to 18.5% in 2023, reflecting slightly higher margins in both Europe and the Americas as a result of our relentless focus on cost, quality, and efficiency, the strength of the integrated operating model and incremental benefits from our capital plans. While underlying box volumes for the group were down 3.5% in 2023, pleasingly, we saw progressive improvement in demand during the year and a return to growth in the fourth quarter in both Europe and the Americas. Pre-exceptional EPS was $3.487 per share in 2023, and the group's return on capital employed was ahead of our target at 17.1%.

Exceptional items amounted to EUR 165 million and are detailed in note 4 to the financial statements. Free cash flow in 2023 amounted to EUR 628 million, an increase of EUR 83 million compared to the prior year. This is an exceptional result when placed in the context of another year of EUR 1 billion capital investments. The working capital inflow in 2023 was EUR 148 million, compared to an outflow of EUR 358 million in 2022. The working capital inflow in 2023 was a combination of a significant decrease in debtors and inventory, partly offset by a decrease in creditors. These movements reflected the combination of lower box prices, lower paper prices, and lower energy, recovered fiber, and other raw material prices.

As a result, working capital as a percentage of sales improved to 7% at December 2023, compared to 8.3% at December 2022, and sits at the low end of our 7%-8% guidance range. Net debt to EBITDA at 1.4 times is slightly below our stated range of 1.5-2 times. And finally, reflecting the confidence both we and the board have in the group, and indeed, the strength and resilience of the cash flows and their future prospects, we are pleased to announce a 10% increase in the final dividend to EUR 1.184 per share. Looking now at slide 15, and a reminder of our highly effective capital allocation framework. Returns focus at its core, both flexible and agile, this continues to be a key underpin to our success.

At Smurfit Kappa, we believe that capital allocated to internal projects has been central to our success. Today, more than ever before, we are seeing the benefits of having a well-invested asset base with an integrated system of mills and box plants, sitting low on the cost curve and primed for future growth. Well-timed and well-executed capital expenditure programs are a hallmark of SKG and are a testament to the experience and tenure of our senior management team. The dividend is another cornerstone of our capital allocation strategy. We have always said that SKG is a highly cash-generative business, and our dividend policy is a progressive one, and aims to ensure that the allocation of cash flows to the dividend is proportionate to other forms of allocated capital over the long term.

In Smurfit Kappa, we have always been disciplined with M&A, and benchmark these opportunities against all other capital allocation alternatives. The proposed combination with WestRock, undoubtedly transformative in nature, is rooted in our history of discipline, best illustrated by combining both companies on equivalent enterprise multiples to create a global leader in sustainable packaging. If you think about the capital we have deployed towards internal investment, M&A, and growing our dividend over the years, we have also managed to reduce our leverage. With net debt to EBITDA at 1.4 times, the strength of the group's investment-grade balance sheet continues to secure long-term strategic and financial flexibility.

The expansion of our capital allocation framework to include other forms of shareholder returns underscores the flexibility and agility of this framework, and ensures that all avenues to create and return value to our shareholders are considered and benchmarked against all options. Ultimately, the framework, at its simplest, is about creating long-term value for all stakeholders. Turning now to slide 16, in Smurfit Kappa, we continue to make significant progress towards achieving our sustainability goals. In March, we will publish our seventeenth Annual Sustainable Development Report, third-party assured since 2009, and this is a high watermark in ESG reporting and disclosure. As a reminder, we were the first in our industry to target net zero emissions, and we're already well on our way to achieving our 2030 emissions reduction target.

Following in the footsteps of a landmark $100 million investment announced in 2022 in a sustainable biomass boiler for our Cali paper mill, which will reduce our group emissions by 6%, further sustainability initiatives were undertaken during 2023 and can be seen on this slide, including significant investments to upgrade energy plants in our mills, which will further reduce our emissions, alongside upgrading a number of water treatment plants right across our operations. In a world where consumers and regulators are demanding that business partner with the most sustainable suppliers, SKG delivers chain of custody certified and bespoke packaging solutions that leverage innovative designs and circularity to help our customers drive revenue growth, reduce costs, and improve their own environmental footprint, a true source of competitive advantage. So in Smurfit Kappa, sustainability is not separate from our financial performance.

With a circular business model, an ever-improving environmental footprint, and a product portfolio that's renewable, recyclable, and biodegradable, sustainability and financial performance are clearly linked. Slide 17 provides a high-level snapshot of the process timetable to closing the Smurfit WestRock combination, subject to all necessary shareholder and regulatory approvals. I don't propose to dwell on the slide, only to say that we have mobilized essential integration planning team, and that team leaders across both companies have the chance to meet face-to-face.

As we said back in September, one of the many reasons for pursuing this combination was the cultural alignment of both organizations, and this has come even more to the fore over the last few months as the Smurfit Kappa and WestRock teams have got to know one another and work towards a shared goal of closing the transaction early July, and indeed, in planning for the future success of the business. As a reminder, Smurfit WestRock will seek a primary listing on the New York Stock Exchange and a standard listing in London. I'm happy to say that all work streams, whether integration planning or indeed working through the necessary regulatory approvals and filings, are all proceeding as planned. With that, I'll hand you over to Saverio, who will take you through the performance of our European operations during the year.

Saverio Mayer (CEO Europe)

Thank you, Ken, and good morning to all. My name is Saverio Mayer, and I'm the CEO of Smurfit Kappa Europe. I've been in the company for 38 years and proudly in charge of Europe since 2017. We have built an incredible business, which has evolved through all of the market trends, including lighter basis weight, innovation, and security of supply, with what we consider to be the industry's best management team. Just to remind you the scale of this business, the system comprises of circa 260 operations in 23 countries. More in detail, we run more than 180 converting facilities, producing in excess of 9 billion square meters, and positioning the company as the number one in Europe, with market number one or number two position in all European markets.

The same number one position applies for both our recycled paper business, with 18 mills producing 4.3 million tons, and our Kraftliner production of 1.6 million tons realized in three mills. We are also proudly number one in Europe with our global Bag-in-Box organization, which includes eight plants. Finally, we have more than 40 operations producing specialties such as MG paper, sack kraft, specialty printing, Machine System, et cetera. So despite a very challenging year, we have delivered a robust performance, achieving region Europe's second highest EBITDA of EUR 1.6 billion, and an EBITDA margin of 18.8%, substantially on the same level of last year.

This outstanding level of EBITDA margin demonstrates once again, not only the resilience of our integrated model, but also the agility of our business in all times and across all market conditions, which is much appreciated by our customers. Throughout the year, we have witnessed some main highlights in the history of Smurfit Kappa. Among other noteworthy moments, the opening of our first corrugated plant in Morocco marks the group's first operation in Africa. Furthermore, we successfully completed in 2023, two new acquisitions of packaging specialist Carrion in Spain and Australia, one of the largest printing companies in Poland. I'm particularly proud of these excellent numbers, and even more in the context of a difficult macroeconomic scenario, where demand has been suffering and has in turn affected volumes.

Our performance is even more visible looking at the latest industry production statistics, where we have again outpaced our peer group and continued to gain market share. For 2024, I remain optimistic, as the month of January is already showing positive signs of demand recovery based on an improving number of our shipments per day, this now being in line with our expectations. Moreover, we have by now completed most of our strategic investments, ensuring the best parameters for us to operate effectively and to continuously drive costs out when and where necessary, thus enhancing our competitiveness. Our quality indicators were the best of all times, as reflected in our record low non-conforming pieces per million pieces delivered, PPM, and our highest ever on time in full percentage joint indicator. Today, we are a structurally better business.

The effectiveness of our customer-led packaging business is without doubt, tightly related to our capability to innovate. Packaging innovation that gets results has always been in our DNA, and now and one of our key differentiator on the market, as recognized by the numerous awards we continually receive. In November 2023, we earned the prestigious award of PepsiCo Supplier of the Year, and beginning of this year, we received an impressive 12 WorldStar Awards, three times more than any other entrant. Speaking of innovation, we launched last year our Design2Market factory, a unique facility led by a multidisciplinary team of design, engineering, and marketing experts, covering all areas from board grade selection to supply chain and sustainability. This factory allows us to collaboratively develop and test solutions with our customers before full-scale production.

The proven methodology is set and deliver solutions that are implemented within a record time, in just 2 weeks. After a successful first year with more than 50 projects completed with a variety of customers, we proudly announced in October 2023, the expansion of this concept across new European countries such as Germany, Italy, Poland and UK. Our purpose is to create, protect, and care. This is why, for us, innovation goes hand in hand with sustainability through our Better Planet Packaging program. We are committed to being impactful for all our stakeholders and to support our customers in their journey towards a better future by accompanying them in achieving their carbon reduction targets and their sustainability commitments. The set of innovative tools we have developed, our state-of-the-art infrastructure, along with the experience and expertise of our people, make us the packaging supplier of choice.

In fact, over the last years, sustainability has become a key trend in major brands, driven by a lasting change in consumption patterns that values circular models on one end, and on the other, by a supportive regulation. We are delighted to naturally take part by being the best packaging partner for our customers. In 2023, over 100 new BPP solutions were successfully implemented in our customers. Our aim is to develop packaging that leaves no waste. In regards to this, paper packaging is one of the most sustainable packaging solutions available nowadays. It is renewable, has the highest recycling rate, and if it still does end up as litter, it is biodegradable. A real example of circular economy.

The recent regulatory evolution illustrates the urge to move toward a truly circular economy, and surely we, as part of the cardboard industry in Europe, have been a front runner in delivering a product that meets green transition objectives.

... I will now hand you over to Laurent Sellier.

Laurent Sellier (CEO The Americas)

Thank you, Saverio. Good morning, and I'm Laurent Sellier, CEO of Smurfit Kappa, The Americas. I have been working with the company since 1994, and I've had various roles, starting in finance and developing into predominantly paper operations in Europe, which I led from 2015 to 2021. I have the great pleasure today to share some details about the region under my release since 2021. The business employs just short of 70,000 people and extends through the entire geography of the continent, although predominantly focused on Central and South America. The breadth of our geographical coverage gives us a unique position in the region and allows to cover both the granularity of local customers, the needs of national customers, as well as the Pan-American clients. We offer five major clusters of operations.

First one, North America, is comprised box plants, including 5 box plants on the Mexican border, serving the so-called Maquila business, folding carton plants, a recycled paper mill, and various packaging services, specialty businesses. Mexico then comprised of box plants as well, folding cartons and recycled paper mills. The central cluster, including kraft and recycled paper mills, forestry operations, box plants, and sack plants. This cluster encompasses Colombia, which is the core of the cluster, as well as Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Peru, and Ecuador. Brazil, comprised of a network of box plants, but also dedicated recycled paper mills, and finally, Argentina and Chile, comprised there again, box plants and recycled paper mills. In all clusters, we do collect recovered paper to supply our recycled paper mills.

In total, we produce and sell 2.6 billion square meters of corrugated for 1.6 million tons of container board. The system is short of approximately 500,000 tons of paper that we purchased, predominantly centered on Mexico and Central America. Once again, the region presented an improved EBITDA year-on-year, an exceptional performance relative to our peers, showcasing the potential of the region and the quality of the management team. During this challenging year of softer demand and challenging pricing environments, the operations excelled at minimizing costs to maintain strong margins. Despite market-driven low volumes in the first month, our team's efforts to provide added value solutions and agile responses to our customer needs allowed us to prevail as the partner of choice.

Due to our determined initiatives and continued investment across the board in the area, the region achieved another year of record results, delivering an EBITDA of EUR 557 million. The Americas is a densely populated continent with organic consumption growth potential, but in addition, specific opportunities such as nearshoring are offering incremental growth potential for our customers. We are the largest integrated Pan-American player, with a strong presence in most Latin American countries, giving us a privileged position to benefit from this potential in full. Our disciplined capital allocation program and targeted M&A execution has allowed us to expand our business footprint and underpins the goal of being the go-to Pan-American business partner for paper-based packaging solutions. Our region-wide cost reduction program, with productivity initiative as the core pillar, has also been key to increasing our profitability year-on-year.

In 2023 alone, the program achieved a record on saving, partially offsetting the effects of cost inflation and allowing the region to achieve another year of record, record EBITDA. This also highlights the experience of our management teams, that even under the most uncertain macro environment, we're able to close another year of increased earnings. As part of our commitment to the region, we've been giving back to the community since 1962. Through well-managed social programs and targeted investments, we have improved the quality of life and overall well-being in the areas we operate, that we operate in, a great source of pride for us as a company and for our people. Our commitment to all stakeholders is present in our day-to-day operations. We continuously aim to provide innovative and value-added solutions to our customers while facilitating our mutual path to a sustainable future.

Anticipating and exceeding the needs of our clients is our priority, and we're permanently ready to help them thrive in their industries and achieve their goals. The wide range of integrated packaging solutions we offer, from Molded pulp, Hexacomb, Folding carton, and corrugated, with high graphics packaging and pre-print offset and digital capabilities, not only enable the value generation of our customers, but also enrich the unpacking experience for their final users. Our region-wide experience centers are a pillar for creating value to the customer. In combination with our European colleagues, we constantly cross-fertilize to leverage the overall global experience. This profound and dynamic product expertise allows for the continuous creation of innovative, cost-conscious solutions for our customers on their journey towards carbon footprint reduction. As indicated earlier, we're also proud to participate in a large number of initiatives with CSR at the heart of our operating model.

I will now hand you back to Tony for concluding remarks.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Thank you, Laurent, and thank you, Saverio and Ken. I hope you will have seen that 2023 was a year of operating excellence for Smurfit Kappa in an environment that was certainly challenging. I'm immensely proud of the performance of our company in all areas of the business, which I think is best highlighted by the picture on this slide, where PepsiCo gave Smurfit Kappa the Global Supplier of the Year across all categories for all products. This, of course, is in addition to all the other accolades that we have received from customers, industry associations, and accredited third parties. On top of this, we worked hard to bring you, our shareholders, an immense opportunity to combine with WestRock. We intend to list the company on the world's largest, most liquid stock exchange, the NYSE.

The combination of Smurfit and WestRock will be the largest go-to sustainable packaging company in the world, which presents many opportunities for growth, cost reduction, and development. Most importantly, it gives our customers a company able to meet their every need in innovation, sustainability, and geographic reach. Smurfit Kappa's 2023 performance once again proves our capacity to perform and deliver. Our long-standing and proven management team has built a formidable business that has delivered superior performance in all market conditions. Our capital decisions, together with the ongoing operating excellence, have delivered a 76% increase in EBITDA, a 390-point increase in EBITDA margin, and a 230-point increase in return on capital employed over the last eight years, all the while building balance sheet strength and sustaining a highly attractive dividend stream.

Smurfit Kappa has the right market positions, the right product at the right time, and most importantly of all, the right people. Yes, we have delivered, and in many circumstances, exceeded the objective set, but this has never been the summit of our ambitions. 2024, with the creation of the global leader in sustainable packaging, Smurfit WestRock, marks the next and exciting phase in our journey. With that, now I will hand it over to you to ask any questions. I'm delighted that we have Saverio and Laurent here, so they will answer all the questions related to the European and Americas markets, so, that will make it easy for Ken and me. Thank you all for attending today, and we look forward to the questions and, obviously meeting some of you later. Over to you, operator.

Operator (participant)

Thank you so much. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Thank you. We'll now take our first question from Justin Jordan with Davy. Please go ahead.

Justin Jordan (Research Analyst)

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I guess my question is really for Saverio. Really, you know, encouraged by what you said in terms of January demand recovery in European box demand.

Can you perhaps give us some quantification of what that is in percentage terms in 2024 year to date? And then secondly, clearly, European container board prices were, let's call it, drifting lower through the second half of 2022 all the way through 2023 and January 2024. Can you share with us your thoughts on container board price outlook for 2024 in Europe? And following on from that, what your hopes and ambitions are for box price outlook in Europe in 2024? Thank you.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

So, Justin, as we've asked him here, we have to let him give him an unvarnished view as he sees it from the operation, so we can't even control him, so go ahead, Saverio.

Saverio Mayer (CEO Europe)

Okay, Justin, thanks for the easy question. So, I mean, what I said, we saw it clearly in Q4, coming back to growth. And in January, the trend has continued. I mean, working days, deliveries have been up on previous years. And in total, on demand, we saw something in the range of 3% in terms of shipments per day, which is a good sign, you know, for the beginning of the year. Still, I think we need to assess, and we see the first few days of February is continuing on the same line. So, we want to assume this is the new level that we will see throughout the year.

For what concerns the container board price, I mean, I don't have the crystal ball. What I know is that what has been lost in terms of container board prices in the last 18 months is now putting this to a level that it needs to bounce back as soon as the market condition will be there. So I don't know exactly when, but from my experience, I mean, when you reach this level, we will need to see a bounce back of container board, which with the due time to get to the final market will mean that we will need to drive box prices up again.

Justin Jordan (Research Analyst)

Thank you, Saverio.

Saverio Mayer (CEO Europe)

Okay.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Charlie with BNP Paribas. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Charlie Muir-Sands (Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, good morning, gentlemen. Thanks for the presentation and for taking my questions. The first one is a bit of a follow-up on that. I think for the year ahead, consensus is looking for around EUR 1.95 billion of adjusted EBITDA. I just wondered, obviously, there's a lot of uncertainties still, but firstly, on the kind of box price and volume side of things, what kind of assumptions are required to get there? And then on the cost side, clearly some things you can't cover, but on energy, can you tell us how much you are covered on already for the financial year we're now in? And then one last question on a different topic.

The PPWR legislative progress continues, and I think at the end of last year, we had both the Parliament voting on the amendments they're suggesting, and also the European Council with their negotiating position. As you see it today, are you calling it a net positive for you guys, or no longer a negative, or how would you appraise that side of things? Thank you.

Ken Bowles (CFO)

Charlie, Charlie, it's Ken here. I'm going to let the absolute expert in PPWR, Saverio, answer that bit in a second. On your first bit, it's still very early February. We're not going to get into how the year might play out. I think as we probably talked about a bit last year, we saw box prices come off slightly again in Q4. We probably see them come off slightly again as a result of indexes in Q1, couple of percentage points max. That's it. Beyond that, not seeing much, and kind of go back to Saverio's comments there around what might happen on paper and boxes as we move through the year.

I think to your second point, it is fair to say, I think we're looking at a less volatile cost backdrop than we might have seen before, particularly in areas like energy at the moment. We're kind of slightly north of 40% hedge for this year, which we're roughly where we are, and about 27%- I think 27 or 25 we sit here. So very much within our policy ranges. If you're thinking about energy, you know, it's small tailwind as we were in last year, based where we sit here, and thankfully, you know, we still see energy prices remaining in relatively low ranges.

But I think generally, the cost backdrop is probably presenting as less volatile than before, which presents a better picture when you go back to kind of what Saverio talked about before, in terms of the general container board price picture. But not going to get into how I'd see it. Perhaps, if we all had a crystal ball, I could tell you. But I would say, though, you know, this time last year, consensus was where it was, and we didn't move it during the year. So, you know, our history here is good. But I will now pass you the expert on PPWR.

Saverio Mayer (CEO Europe)

Yeah. So, so Charlie, regarding the question on PPWR, it's been a lot of activity on this subject, and where we are today is that, at the year-end, all the three elements of the European government, meaning the council, the commission of the member states and the parliament, they all, all of the three, got in there, got voted, went through the vote, and in all the three parts, the exemption for the cardboard was confirmed. So we are... Normally, we are in very good shape.

What is going on, according to the very complex procedures of getting the regulation done in the European Parliament, is that now there are what they are called Trilogue conversations within the three parties getting together for technical meetings to go through the amendments and find compromises and check. Normally, when the three parts have previously agreed on something, there should be no change, but we have no certainty of this until we will see the regulation published, which will be probably around half of this year for then entering into practice in the end of 2025.

But I think the overall, so for this exemption, if we are assuming to keep that, this is a major opportunity for the industry in general and for paper-based packaging to grow into new market segments and get the market growth that it deserves.

I think as well, it's very fair to say that we're seeing some countries aggressively move towards getting rid of certain substrates, such as EPS in France and plastic punnets in certain countries around Europe. So there's definitely an aggressive move by certain countries to use paper-based packaging, which is gonna be in our favor. And then clearly, if this legislation goes through as is currently planned, that is very positive for our business.

Charlie Muir-Sands (Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks very much.

Saverio Mayer (CEO Europe)

Thank you, Charlie.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We'll now move on to our next question from Cole Hathorn with Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Cole Hathorn (SVP of Equity Research)

Good morning. Thanks for, for taking the question. I'd just like to, to follow up on kind of the volume trends. Firstly, could you give any color on, on what you're seeing, in the Americas, by region? That would be helpful. And then I've got a bit of a longer one. I know you're not able to, to answer much on, on WestRock, but maybe we can bring it back to the CapEx that you've done over the last number of years. I mean, you've structurally improved your, your earnings through the cycle. So I'm just wanting to know if you could, break out the investments that you've made in, let's say, the converting side, you know, how, how that improves your returns, reduces costs versus kind of older box plants, and how long it takes to get those paybacks?

And then secondly, you know, the mill investments, how those have improved or moved down kind of the cost per ton, and how long those kind of bigger recovery boiler investments take? Just thinking about it, when you apply what you've learned over the last five years to WestRock mill system. And then finally, maybe the, I would say, promotional or, operational slide on top of that, the commercial elements, as a final point. Thank you.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Wow!

Cole Hathorn (SVP of Equity Research)

You're right, that was a long one.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Well, why don't we just take volumes in the Americas first with Laurent, and then we'll try and figure out what we-

Laurent Sellier (CEO The Americas)

We'll see how far-

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

We'd have to ask you to answer the question again, Cole.

Laurent Sellier (CEO The Americas)

Well, Cole, in the Americas, we've seen a situation that is in a fair bit similar to what Saverio has just explained before. As we progress through 2023, we've seen signs of encouraging recovery disseminated through the geography. We're starting January exactly with the same principles.

... We've been looking at different segments, types of dynamics, but not everything is homogeneous, also not in terms of countries. But in general terms, we're also between 2% and 3% above last year for January, standalone. And we've been, you know, affected by some micro elements, like in Texas, there's been a big frost bite, for those who know a little bit of the region, so that's affecting numbers to some degree. But like, in general terms, the 2%-3% increase, January on January, is what we would observe for now.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Yeah, and you're also being affected by El Niño with our crops-

Laurent Sellier (CEO The Americas)

Yeah, the agro business.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

In the agro business. So there are some weather-related issues that are affecting us a little bit around the edges, but still, nonetheless, the performance in the first month has been reasonably good. With regard to how we go about our investment plan, I mean, I think, Cole, you know, Smurfit Kappa, we're all shareholders in this company, and we believe that all investments have to have a return.

Obviously, if you go back 10 years before our medium-term plan, we were, as Saverio mentioned in his commentary, a little bit short in lightweight paper. We were a little bit short in some of our mill system being as efficient as it needed to be. So we undertook a program of upgrading our mill system and upgrading our capabilities in the mill system to ensure that we had much more tonnage produced on a lesser footprint. And we keep saying that, you know, we've got a lot more tons in each paper machine that has enhanced our returns very significantly. And, you know, I think WestRock is already on that journey.

As you'll have seen, they have closed a number of facilities over the last number of years, and more recently, they've done one recently in Charleston. So I think there's a consistent program what they're doing, which is somewhat in line with what we've been doing, but they're a little bit behind us in that regard. I think on our converting system, the converting system that we have established is one being centered around innovation and excellence for our customers.

When Saverio talked about the innovation side of things, what we've done in Europe and indeed in the Americas, it's always been to ensure that we can offer our customers the best quality and to make sure that their line efficiencies are improved. And in order to do that, you must have the right equipment, and we've been continually investing in the right equipment to ensure that, as well as doing the same sort of things that we've been doing in the mill system, which is again, having some mega plants where it makes sense, not in every plant, because some plants are specialty plants that have older equipment, but they're fit for purpose.

You know, we just continue to look at each individual investment as being whether or not it's going to give us the required payback that allows us to meet our thresholds. With regard to recovery boilers, you know, I think we tend to try and find ways to ensure that we don't do new recovery boilers, because they're very expensive, and they don't have the high return, but sometimes you have to. That's just part of staying in business, and we do have a lot of stay-in-business investments that we have to make.

You know, clearly, part of our commitment to the environment is to ensure that we have best available technology, and to reduce our carbon footprint, we have to continue to invest in boilers to ensure that we do have best available technology, so that continues to reduce our carbon footprint. So you know, like, obviously, where WestRock sit on the investment curve is they're a little bit behind us in the sense that we've got at this a lot earlier than them. They were a collection of acquisitions, and I think they're going about it while fixing some of the issues. You know, no company is perfect. We're not perfect.

We've had to close recently an asset in France that, you know, was acceptable for us, but in this current market condition, isn't. So therefore, that's being closed. And you know, that's something that companies continue to have to do to adjust their asset base, and I'm sure we'll continue to do that, and WestRock will continue to do that over time.

Cole Hathorn (SVP of Equity Research)

Tony, maybe I just ask for a bit of a quantification for, you know, a new box plant versus kind of an old box plant with corrugator and converting lines. I mean, International Paper brought it up that they'd wish they'd invested a bit sooner in new sites. I'm just wondering, you know, how much more kind of labor efficient, kind of cost efficient is a new converting site versus one of your older box plants? And, you know, how quickly do you see that kind of payback coming through?

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

It's not a good question, Kev, or sorry, Cole, because, you know, you can in an old box plant become very efficient with new converting machines. So it's just a question of how the box plant is configured, and what's the mix of a box plant and how what the customer profile is. And you can have some very small box plants that are highly profitable, that you just need to change one machine in, and they become more profitable, and labor cost isn't the issue. If you go after commodity business, pure commodity business, you need to have one of those really efficient box plants, but that's not where Smurfit Kappa sits. We sit in solving our customers' problems, and it could be any sort of different problem.

Yes, we have some very large customers, but we have a lot of very small customers, and we're a packaging solutions provider, and that's what makes us different. That's why we have the margins we have. I don't know if you want to comment on that, Saverio?

Saverio Mayer (CEO Europe)

No, I think that the variable cost and the taking cost out of the system is what we work, and we dedicated several investments of that. The variable cost cannot be so different. It's how you position the plant to service the market through innovation and through try and give a holistic approach to what the customer needs and finding solution and look at the total cost of the supplier rather than the direct one. So.

Ken Bowles (CFO)

I think, Cole, Saverio added in his slides, and maybe just, if you think about low PPM and high OTIF, that's the difference between a well-invested box plant and not, in terms of the customer focus, quality, innovation, and efficiency.

Cole Hathorn (SVP of Equity Research)

Thank you.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Well said, my CFO. Well done. I like it.

Operator (participant)

Thank you.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Okay.

Operator (participant)

We'll now move on to our next question from Kate McCarthy with Goodbody. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Kate McCarthy (Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for taking my questions. I might just ask on that volume performance in Europe. I know you mentioned before that Germany had seen an improvement in Q3. I suppose, is there anything in particular you'd like to call out in terms of a regional performance in Q4 and into Q1, and has there been any incremental changes there? And then secondly, just on that margin performance, I might just ask you to talk us through the drivers of this resilient performance, and I suppose particularly in the context of the current backdrop.

Saverio Mayer (CEO Europe)

So Saverio, do you take the German market? I mean, as it was said, the German market was showing in Q3 signs of recovery, which have been confirmed in Q4 and even in the same in January. So, it's not... It's in the right direction. It's not yet where we expect it to be, and this is mainly due to, let's say, the kind of industries that are present. So the car industries and the chemical industries, they have particularly suffered, but they are on their way of recovering, and we see it in the packaging demand.

So we are not there where we used to be, but when you see there is a relative improvement, which is very clear over there.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Is there any market, Saverio, she's asking, is there any market that is particularly well?

Saverio Mayer (CEO Europe)

Well, for sure, all the Eastern Europe part, it's accelerating. I would say also, Spain, Italy and France are in good shape. So in general, and UK has shown quite an interesting recovery in the last few months. So, and when you talk to major brands, which are our major customers, they are all seeing this trend and confirming this trend, and very confident in the coming months for a sales recovery, which means boxes additional additional boxes sales.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

I think one of the things that gives us confidence for the second half of the year, Kate, is that when you look at how the major FMCG customers have been positioning themselves during 2023, it was price over volume and less promotional activity. And now when you see them talking, that their obviously their pricing is, has got to a point where they need to adjust their pricing, so they're now having to think about volume promotions and things for this. And as well as that, a lot of their input costs have gone down, so they're able to do that. And so therefore, they are certainly talking up the fact that there is going to be a much more promotional activity in the second half.

As I mentioned earlier, you know, you do have big events coming, the Olympics, and that generally is a large consumption event across the world. So I think, you know, there seems to be some good signs on, at least that's the noises they're making. We have to see it come through. There has to be. There's obviously a lot of macro events in the world that we're all looking at that are obviously troublesome. But, you know, from a purely economic perspective, there looks to be positive situation on the horizon. Ken, do you want to take the second part?

Ken Bowles (CFO)

Hey, Kate, on the margin resilience point, I think or even increase, I suppose I sit here with admiration for the work that Saverio and Laurent have done on their teams, because really, it's down to their skill and expertise that have driven that. I think it's partly what both said in their own presentations and the answers given here, which is it's a focus on cost, it's a focus on efficiency, it's a focus on the marginal items. And as the top line moves, it's making sure that you trap as much of the benefit as you go down the P&L, the income statement. I think it's also sort of back to Cole's question, which is it's a result of the investments we made over a long number of years.

So investments made two or three years ago are now coming to pay off, whether that's cost takeout or efficiency or something else. So it's a number of factors, but I think that Tony said in his, it's really down to the skill and expertise of the teams that Saverio and Laurent lead in terms of getting there.

Kate McCarthy (Equity Research Analyst)

That's great. Thanks a lot.

Saverio Mayer (CEO Europe)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Kevin Fogarty with Numis. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Kevin Fogarty (Director of Equity Research)

Hi, morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my questions. Two, if I could do just one in terms of capital allocation. If we look at the CapEx guidance for the current year, it sort of implies, I guess, sort of growth projects are still pretty much on the back burner, you know, given the sort of operating environment, I guess. I just wondered if that's... Is that a fair assumption, and what's... given the industry backdrop, would it take for you to sort of put sort of growth projects back into the pipeline, I guess? And secondly, just sort of touching on the margin performance, sort of going back to that specifically for the Americas. Obviously, in the presentation, you've highlighted some of the drivers of that, and clearly you've pointed to, you know, historic investment, et cetera.

I just wondered, could you? I think that margin is probably now at sort of close to, if not a kind of record performance for the region. I just wondered, is there any sense to, you know, how much potential there is to, to sort of expand that further, or, or are, are we in a state where, you know, sustaining that margin is the more realistic objective, particularly for the Americas?

Ken Bowles (CFO)

I'll take the first one, and sure, Laurent will take the second one. Kevin, with no... It's probably not the way to read the guidance. I mean, we're talking about EUR 900 million in CapEx as a guide figure for 2024. Within that, 500-550 is really what we call maintenance CapEx, but you're still talking about EUR 350-400 million of projects over and above maintenance in terms of growth and something else.

We, you know, we've talked about the well-invested system we have, but, you know, we continue to go back to it, and it sort of goes back to that basic point. You know, you—we keep moving up the efficiency curve, keep moving up the quality curve, keep following our customers there, where they want to go with their, with the pro-portfolio products we have. So I think very simply, no, the EUR 900 is built on maintenance CapEx, plus a ton of growth projects, both on the mill side, some around sustainability and the finishing out of some of those big projects to kind of drive our ambitions around sustainability, but also growth projects across the region. Laurent?

Laurent Sellier (CEO The Americas)

Yes, well, to your question, Kevin, you know, the only reasonable answer is that when we're strong, we can get stronger, and that's really what we're doing. There's three angles to that type of reflection. The first one, and Kevin, Tony has spoken to it in detail, is about investment. I mean, we've put sizable amounts of investments in the business in the Americas and created not only capability for growth, but very often unlock new capabilities to serve innovation for our customers, which is the second pillar. I mean, we are very innovative in that area.

We're using and piggybacking a lot of the experience of our European colleagues, and this gives us a front-running position in the area, which I think we capitalize on very well, and the teams locally do a superb job at using that knowledge. And the last point would be productivity. We've done an enormous amount of work at reorganizing and making our structures leaner, unlocking quite significant costs. So, my strong belief is that we should be able to continue to accrue on the margin levels that indeed are historically high.

Kevin Fogarty (Director of Equity Research)

Great. Okay. That's really helpful. Yeah.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Easy answer. Kevin, he has to do better.

Kevin Fogarty (Director of Equity Research)

Yeah, no pressure. No pressure.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

No pressure, exactly.

Laurent Sellier (CEO The Americas)

No pressure. Okay.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. That's all the time we had for Q&A. I will now hand it back to Tony Smurfit, Group CEO, for closing remarks. Thank you.

Tony Smurfit (CEO)

Yes, thank you, all, and thank you especially to my colleagues, who worked so hard on this presentation and made sure that, we're able to tell you the, the great company that we are, and the great company that we are going to continue to be. And you know, like I say, we are very proud of the performance of Smurfit Kappa during 2023. We look forward to the future with real enthusiasm. I think that, there's a lot of work to do, especially in Ken's area, to make sure that all the T's are crossed and the I's dotted, to get to closing in July.

But we feel very comfortable and confident that the combination of Smurfit and WestRock for all sorts of different reasons that I've already outlined is gonna be a great one for the short, medium, and long term of this business. So we look forward to 2024 and beyond with great confidence, enthusiasm, and excitement. And I want to thank you all for your time to be with us today and look forward to seeing some of you in the coming minutes, I would say. So thank you all, and have a good rest of your day.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. Stay safe. You may now disconnect.