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    MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE (TAP)

    TAP Q1 2025: Low-single-digit sales decline, Q3 shipment rebound

    Reported on May 8, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$56.84Last close (May 7, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$52.35Open (May 8, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-4.49(-7.90%)
    • Shipment Recovery Expected in Q3: Although Q1 was softer than anticipated, management highlighted that shipments are expected to recover and align in Q3, supporting a rebound in sales momentum.
    • Stabilizing Pricing Power: The forecast for North America includes a return to 1-2% net price increases, indicating the company's ability to maintain revenue growth through pricing power even in a challenging environment.
    • Premiumization and Strategic Partnerships: Emphasis on premiumization, innovation, and key partnerships like Fever-Tree supports long‑term revenue growth, reinforcing the company’s competitive positioning.
    • Macroeconomic Volatility: The call highlighted significant macro pressure, including a nearly 20 percentage point drop in consumer sentiment and negative GDP in Q1, suggesting weakening demand and challenging economic conditions.
    • Weakened Guidance: Management updated guidance to reflect a low single-digit decline in net sales revenue and underlying pretax income versus previous growth expectations, which may worry investors about near-term performance.
    • Operational Headwinds: The transcript cited shipment headwinds and onetime transition fees related to the Fever-Tree integration, indicating additional cost pressures that could impact profitability.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    11% decline (from $2,596.4M to $2,304.1M)

    Total Revenue decreased by 11% YoY, driven by broad-based declines across key regions. Notably, the Americas revenue dropped by 12% and the EMEA & APAC segment declined by 6%, indicating that regional market headwinds and reduced sales volumes in the current period reversed the higher revenue levels of Q1 2024.

    Americas Revenue

    12% decline (from $2,145.4M to $1,881.8M)

    The Americas segment saw a 12% drop, which significantly impacted overall revenue. This decline reflects challenges such as softer market demand and potential shifts in product mix, thereby worsening the revenue trends seen in the previous period.

    EMEA & APAC Revenue

    6% decline (from $454.7M to $427.3M)

    A 6% decline in EMEA & APAC revenue contributed to the overall drop, signifying milder but still negative market conditions compared to Q1 2024, as these regions faced lower volumes. The decline suggests that competitive pressures or lower regional demand curtailed the gains from premium pricing or mix improvements previously observed.

    Operating Income

    Over 40% decline (from $314.3M to $186.3M)

    Operating Income fell by more than 40% YoY reflecting the combined impact of revenue declines across geographies and increased cost pressures in Q1 2025, which likely reduced operating margins relative to Q1 2024.

    Net Income

    41% decline (from $209.9M to $123.1M)

    A reduction in Net Income of approximately 41% mirrors the deteriorating operating performance. The steep drop indicates that lower revenue volumes, higher costs, and possibly other non-operational factors negatively influenced net earnings compared to the previous period.

    Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities

    Turned negative (from +$25.4M to –$90.7M)

    The operating cash flow deteriorated sharply, turning negative in Q1 2025. The significant swing reflects not only the drop in net income but also adverse changes in working capital and timing differences in cash receipts versus payments, which contrasts with the modest positive cash flow observed in Q1 2024.

    Current Portion of Long-Term Debt

    90% decline (from $905.5M to $83.2M)

    The current portion of long-term debt plunged by over 90% YoY, largely due to strategic debt reclassification and repayments. This adjustment shifts short-term obligations off the balance sheet, contrasting sharply with the previous period’s higher current debt figure.

    Total Long-Term Debt

    16% increase (from $5,312.2M to $6,154.6M)

    Total long-term debt increased by about 16% YoY as a result of new debt issuances, foreign currency adjustments, and increases in finance lease liabilities. While the short-term debt component shrank markedly, the overall long-term obligation grew due to refinancing activities and new financing moves undertaken during the period.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Net Sales Revenue Growth

    FY 2025

    Low single-digit growth on a constant currency basis.

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Underlying Pretax Income Growth

    FY 2025

    Mid-single-digit growth on a constant currency basis.

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Underlying Earnings Per Share Growth

    FY 2025

    High single-digit growth.

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Underlying Free Cash Flow

    FY 2025

    $1.3 billion, plus or minus 10%.

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Underlying Depreciation and Amortization

    FY 2025

    $675 million, plus or minus 5%.

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Net Interest Expense

    FY 2025

    $215 million, plus or minus 5%.

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Underlying Effective Tax Rate

    FY 2025

    In the range of 22% to 24%.

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Capital Expenditures

    FY 2025

    $750 million, plus or minus 5%.

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Net Sales Revenue Growth
    Q1 2025
    Low single-digit growth on a constant currency basis
    Decreased ~11% (2,596.4In Q1 2024 vs. 2,304.1In Q1 2025)
    Missed
    Underlying Pretax Income Growth
    Q1 2025
    Mid-single-digit growth
    Decreased ~41% (265.4In Q1 2024 vs. 156.3In Q1 2025)
    Missed
    Underlying Earnings Per Share
    Q1 2025
    High single-digit growth
    Decreased ~39% ($0.97In Q1 2024 vs. $0.59In Q1 2025)
    Missed
    Underlying Free Cash Flow
    Q1 2025
    $1.3 billion, ±10%
    Net operating cash flow: –$90.7 million; CapEx: –$237.3 million(negative FCF)
    Missed
    Depreciation and Amortization
    Q1 2025
    $675 million, ±5%
    $180.3 millionIn Q1 2025 (annualizing exceeds guidance range)
    Missed
    Net Interest Expense
    Q1 2025
    $215 million, ±5%
    $56.6 millionIn Q1 2025 (annualizing slightly above +5% range)
    Missed
    Underlying Effective Tax Rate
    Q1 2025
    22% to 24%
    ~21.2% (33.2Tax ÷ 156.3Pretax income)
    Beat
    Capital Expenditures
    Q1 2025
    $750 million, ±5%
    $237.3 millionIn Q1 2025 (annualizing ~26% above guidance)
    Missed
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Shipment Recovery and Volume Trends

    Q2 2024 emphasized deliberate inventory builds and a planned unwind of excess shipments (with STWs exceeding STRs by up to 750,000 hl in Q1 and 350,000 hl in Q2 ); Q4 2024 noted inventory build strategies to counteract anticipated strike impacts and a modest shipment-consumption lag

    Q1 2025 reports a sharper decline in U.S. financial volume, with reduced shipment timing gaps (STWs only 200,000 hl ahead of STRs versus 750,000 hl previously) and a clear expectation of recovery in Q3

    Recurring topic with a shift from proactive buildup to managing sharper short-term declines; sentiment is more negative in the current period but recovery is anticipated.

    Stabilizing Pricing Power

    Q2 2024 noted that net pricing increases contributed significantly to performance ; Q4 2024 reported strong net sales revenue growth driven by favorable pricing and mix

    Q1 2025 maintained that pricing remains stable with anticipated net price increases in North America aligning with historical trends

    Consistently positive with minimal volatility; overall sentiment remains steady.

    Premiumization and Brand Performance

    Q2 2024 highlighted growing above‑premium contributions and core brand reinvigoration ; Q4 2024 stressed impressive performance in EMEA/APAC and Canada along with successful premiumization initiatives

    Q1 2025 underlined a robust premiumization strategy across its portfolio—including focus on key brands such as Peroni, Blue Moon, and new non‑alc efforts—bolstered by initiatives like Fever‑Tree, enhancing long‑term brand performance

    A central and consistently emphasized area; current period shows intensified investment with very positive long‑term growth implications.

    Operational Efficiency & Margin Management

    Q2 2024 detailed substantial investments in modernization and cost savings (e.g. Golden, Colorado brewery project) and Q4 2024 emphasized margin expansion through cost‐saving initiatives and improved operational efficiency

    Q1 2025 discussed continued efficiency improvements amid challenges from volume deleverage, noting higher COGS per hectoliter but also citing hedging programs and cost savings that support margin management

    Consistent focus on efficiency; however, Q1 2025 reflects a short‑term pressure from volume losses even as long‑term margin management remains on track.

    Macroeconomic Volatility and Guidance Adjustments

    Q2 2024 maintained guidance with only modest commentary on economic drivers ; Q4 2024 noted macro challenges (e.g. turbulent weather, holiday impacts) that led to revising guidance for 2024

    Q1 2025 places significant emphasis on a volatile global macroeconomic environment—with notable drops in consumer sentiment and GDP contractions—resulting in revised, more conservative guidance metrics

    Growing focus and more negative sentiment; macro volatility is now a pronounced short‑term risk affecting outlook and guidance.

    International Market Expansion and Diversification

    Q2 2024 mentioned new capacity projects in the U.K. and modernization efforts that support international operations ; Q4 2024 highlighted expansion in EMEA/APAC and success in Canada, with plans for further market launches

    Q1 2025 showcased deliberate global expansion moves with new market launches in Bulgaria, Romania, and a non‑alc beer launch in the U.K., illustrating active geographic deepening

    A consistently positive focus with increasing globalization; the current period shows accelerated and diversified international growth initiatives.

    Beverage Portfolio Diversification (Non‑Alcoholic and Beyond Beer)

    Q4 2024 discussed diversification through non‑alc offerings (e.g. Blue Moon non‑alc, Naked Life) and strategic moves into alcohol adjacencies ; Q2 2024 highlighted innovation in Beyond Beer with the Simply Spiked brand

    Q1 2025 emphasized deepening its non‑alc and Beyond Beer portfolio via strategic investments (majority stake in ZOA, exclusive Fever‑Tree rights) to broaden its total beverage offering

    A recurring and strengthening theme; current period reflects enhanced strategic investment, reinforcing its role as a long‑term growth driver.

    Innovation and New Product Development

    Q2 2024 noted strong performance of new launches like Simply Spiked and other innovation in premiumization ; Q4 2024 described a comprehensive innovation pipeline (including Gen Z initiatives and high‑ABV products)

    Q1 2025 continued the focus on innovation with additional market launches (e.g. a new brand in Romania, non‑alc beer segment in the U.K., Wild Cider in Central and Eastern Europe)

    Innovation remains a vital, consistently emphasized area; the current period builds on previous successes with broadened market initiatives and product launches.

    Strategic Partnerships and Integration Challenges

    Q4 2024 mentioned the strategic partnership for U.S. commercialization of Fever‑Tree, with no noted integration issues ; Q2 2024 did not address this topic

    Q1 2025 detailed the Fever‑Tree partnership’s benefits (e.g. adding 500,000 hl of volume) but also flagged integration challenges with onetime transition fees ($30 million)

    While strategic partnerships have been a consistent opportunity, Q1 2025 reveals emerging integration challenges that add short‑term complexity despite long‑term strategic benefits.

    Changing Consumer Behavior and Health Concerns

    Q2 2024 discussed regional consumer behavior changes amid economic adjustments (e.g. resilient UK consumers, shifting CPI effects) ; Q4 2024 referenced shifts in channel preferences and moderating value‑seeking behavior

    Q1 2025 did not specifically mention health concerns, instead discussing broader macroeconomic pressures influencing value‑seeking behavior without explicitly addressing health‑related shifts

    Consistent discussion of evolving consumer behavior primarily driven by economic factors; health concerns remain minimally addressed across periods.

    1. Leadership/Margins
      Q: Costs and new CEO transition impact results?
      A: Management pointed out that modest inflation pressure is largely offset by strong cost‐savings and an extensive hedging program, while the Board is carefully evaluating both internal and external CEO candidates to maintain the long‐term strategy.

    2. Guidance Outlook
      Q: What drives expected organic sales rebound?
      A: Management explained that Q1 softness stemmed from one‑time Fever‑Tree costs and shipment timing issues, with anticipated recovery as consumer confidence and shelf resets improve in later quarters.

    3. Share Retention
      Q: Are core brand shares holding up?
      A: They noted that core brands like Coors Light, Miller Lite, and Coors Banquet retained nearly all share gains achieved in prior periods, reflecting strong retail positioning.

    4. Category & Tariffs
      Q: How are category declines and tariffs affecting results?
      A: Management acknowledged a mid‑single‑digit category downturn in Q1 but expects recovery later, while tariffs remain immaterial thanks to predominantly domestic sourcing and effective hedging.

    5. Buybacks/M&A
      Q: Do buybacks and M&A support growth story?
      A: They emphasized a robust balance sheet and strong cash generation, underscoring that sustained share buybacks and selective M&A opportunities complement their strategy.

    6. Pricing Strategy
      Q: What is the current pricing and promo approach?
      A: Management expects seasonal promotions with price increases continuing in the historical 1–2% range, without any unusual variability despite soft macro conditions.

    7. CapEx Changes
      Q: What capital spending adjustments are being made?
      A: Tracey clarified that non‐critical projects are postponed to focus resources on initiatives with clear cost‑saving or growth benefits, while essential investments remain intact.

    8. North America Outlook
      Q: What are near-term sales forecasts in the U.S.?
      A: While Q1 was softer, management expects North American shipments to rebound—particularly in Q3—as pricing and innovation initiatives take effect.

    9. Blue Moon Pivot
      Q: How is the Blue Moon pack change affecting sales?
      A: The transition from 15‑packs to 12‑packs temporarily disrupted Blue Moon’s performance, but it positions the brand for improved profitability and market fit moving forward.

    10. Midterm Growth
      Q: What is the long‑term view on category trends?
      A: Despite current cyclic softness, management anticipates a return to historical mix as domestic premium expansion and balanced import growth gradually drive midterm category improvement.

    11. EMEA/APAC
      Q: What are competitive challenges abroad?
      A: In EMEA and APAC, intense competition and higher promotional activity are noted, though strong new market launches and brand investments underline cautious optimism.

    Research analysts covering MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE.