Executive Summary

Q2 2025 delivered a top- and bottom-line beat versus Street: revenue $3.20B vs ~$3.08B consensus (+$0.12B, ~3.8%), and underlying EPS $2.05 vs ~$1.82 consensus (+$0.24, ~13%) driven by price/mix, lower MG&A, and favorable FX; underlying EBITDA topped consensus as well ($764M vs ~$688M) *.
Management cut full-year 2025 guidance: net sales now down 3–4% (from low-single-digit decline), underlying pre-tax income down 12–15% (from low-single-digit decline), and underlying EPS down 7–10% (from low-single-digit growth); FCF reaffirmed at ~$1.3B ±10% .
Key headwinds: softer U.S. industry (~-5%), lower-than-expected share, and an unexpected spike in the Midwest aluminum premium (indirect tariff effect) adding ~$40–55M for 2025, with ~$20–35M in H2; partial offsets from lower incentive comp, price/mix, and cost savings .
Americas profitability improved despite volume declines (underlying pre-tax +5% YoY), while EMEA & APAC net sales benefited from price/mix and FX but margins compressed due to volume and higher U.K. waste management fees .
Capital allocation remains supportive: $500M returned in H1 via dividends and buybacks, quarterly dividend of $0.47 declared (payable Sep 19, 2025), and buybacks accelerated (55% of $2B plan utilized in under two years) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Price/mix resilience: Net sales per hectoliter rose 5.8% reported (4.7% constant), offsetting volume softness; Americas net sales per hectoliter up ~4% .
Americas margin/earnings: U.S. GAAP pre-tax income +10.5% YoY, underlying pre-tax +5.4% (cc), aided by favorable mix, net pricing, lower MG&A, and Fevertree mark-to-market gains .
Strategic portfolio execution: Management highlighted retaining most share gains for Coors Light, Miller Lite, Coors Banquet; premiumization momentum with Peroni (U.S.), Madri (U.K.), and non-alcoholic offerings (Fever-Tree) .
- “We have held most of the share gains over the last three years for our core U.S. power brands… We remain committed to our premiumization plans…” — Gavin Hattersley .

What Went Wrong

Volume deleverage: Financial volumes -7.0% and brand volumes -5.1% YoY; Americas brand volumes -4.0%; EMEA & APAC brand volumes -7.8% .
Macro and share softness: U.S. industry remained ~-5% rather than improving; management assumed ~50 bps share loss in Q2, carrying into H2 .
Cost headwinds: Unexpected Midwest premium spike (+180% since January) and higher U.K. waste management fees pressured COGS per hectoliter and EMEA margins .

Financial Results

Consolidated Revenue and EPS vs prior periods and estimates

Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Consensus Q2 2025*
Net Sales ($USD Billions)	$3.25	$2.30	$3.20	$3.08*
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$2.03	$0.59	$2.13	—
Underlying Diluted EPS ($)	$1.92	$0.50	$2.05	$1.82*
Underlying EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$750	$353	$764	$688*
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

YoY: Net sales -1.6%; underlying EPS +6.8%. QoQ: Net sales +39%; underlying EPS increased from $0.50 to $2.05 .

Margins (company-level)

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Gross Profit Margin %	36.93%*	40.05%*
EBITDA Margin %	17.87%*	23.26%*
EBIT Margin %	10.05%*	18.50%*
Net Income Margin %	5.25%*	13.39%*
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)

Segment	Net Sales ($USD MM) Q2'24 → Q2'25	U.S. GAAP Pre-tax Income ($USD MM) Q2'24 → Q2'25	Underlying Pre-tax Income ($USD MM) Q2'24 → Q2'25
Americas	$2,575.9 → $2,504.8	$487.1 → $538.2	$487.4 → $514.2
EMEA & APAC	$683.3 → $703.9	$81.2 → $64.8	$81.0 → $72.4

KPIs and Operating drivers

KPI	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Financial Volume (mhl)	22.430	20.870
Brand Volume (mhl)	21.715	20.612
Net Sales per Hectoliter change	—	+5.8% reported; +4.7% cc
COGS per Hectoliter change	—	+7.3% reported; +4.9% underlying (cc)
Underlying Effective Tax Rate	24%	23%
Net Debt ($USD MM)	—	$5,705.5; Net Debt/Underlying EBITDA 2.41x
Weighted Avg Diluted Shares (MM)	210.8	201.2
Dividend per Share ($)	$0.44 (Q2’24)	$0.47 declared Jul 16, 2025

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Net Sales (constant currency)	FY 2025	Low single-digit decline	3%–4% decline	Lowered
Underlying Pre-tax Income (cc)	FY 2025	Low single-digit decline	12%–15% decline	Lowered
Underlying EPS	FY 2025	Low single-digit growth	7%–10% decline	Lowered
Underlying Net Interest Expense	FY 2025	$215M ±5%	$225M ±5%	Raised
Capital Expenditures	FY 2025	$650M ±5% (cut from $750M in Q1)	$650M ±5% (unchanged)	Maintained
Underlying Free Cash Flow	FY 2025	~$1.3B ±10%	~$1.3B ±10%	Maintained
Underlying D&A	FY 2025	$675M ±5%	$675M ±5%	Maintained
Underlying ETR	FY 2025	22%–24%	22%–24%	Maintained
Dividend	Next payment	$0.47/share declared	$0.47/share payable Sep 19, 2025	Maintained

Drivers: U.S. industry now down 4–6% in H2 (vs prior improvement assumption), indirect tariff impact (Midwest premium spike), and lower share performance; offsets include lower incentive comp, shipment timing catch-up in Q3, price/mix .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q4 2024 (prior)	Q1 2025 (prior)	Q2 2025 (current)	Trend
U.S. beer macro & consumption	U.S. challenged; retained core share gains; premiumization plans for 2025	Macro volatility; inventory build cycling; contract brewing exit	Industry ~-5%; softness cyclical; pack/channel shifting; H2 down 4–6% assumed	Persistent softness; management views cyclical
Tariffs/Aluminum Midwest Premium	Not a focus	Guidance noted tariffs; hedging guardrails	Midwest premium +180% since Jan; H2 impact $20–35M; FY $40–55M	New material headwind
Premiumization & brands	Madri (UK), Canada premiumization; Blue Moon targeted efforts	Peroni plans; above premium focus; non-ALC expansion with Fever-Tree	Peroni growing double-digit; Banquet strong; Blue Moon on-premise improving; Fever-Tree distribution transition complete	Continued focus; early traction
EMEA & APAC dynamics	Competitive UK; premiumization lifted margins	EMEA volumes down; price/mix support	EMEA net sales +3% (FX, mix); margins pressured by UK waste fees and volume declines	Mixed: top-line aided by FX/mix; margin headwinds
Shipments vs consumption (STW vs STR)	2024 had higher inventory builds	Q1: STW>STR by ~1.1m hl in prior year; 2025 H1 STW>STR by ~0.8m hl	~300k hl reversal expected in H2, mainly Q3	Rebalancing to consumption in Q3
Capital allocation	Net debt/EBITDA 2.09x; buybacks, dividend growth	Capex cut to $650M; buybacks continue	$500M returned in H1; $0.47 dividend declared; buybacks accelerated (55% of plan)	Ongoing shareholder returns
Regulatory/legal	—	Keystone settlement $60.6M paid (Q1)	OBBBA enacted; lowers current-year cash tax liability	Tax tailwind in 2025

Management Commentary

“Our second quarter financial results were impacted by the macroeconomic environment… softer U.S. share… volume deleverage… partially offset by strong price and mix… lower MG&A.” — Gavin Hattersley .
“We are reaffirming our annual underlying free cash flow guidance of $1.3 billion plus or minus 10% due to expected higher cash tax benefits and favorable working capital.” — Gavin Hattersley .
“Our balance sheet and cash generation… allowed us to return $500 million to shareholders in H1 via dividend and accelerated repurchases.” — Tracey Joubert .

Q&A Highlights

Guidance bridge: Three unexpected drivers — industry stayed ~~-5%, Midwest premium +180% since Jan, and lower share performance; H2 assumes similar share trends (~~-50 bps in Q2) .
Midwest premium specifics: H2 incremental $20–35M (60–75¢/lb), FY $40–55M, difficult to hedge due to opacity and liquidity; tariffs otherwise minimal direct cost impact .
Shipments catch-up: ~300k hl shipment timing reversal expected mainly in Q3; plan to ship to consumption .
Pricing & promos: FY U.S. net pricing +1–2%; summer promotions elevated seasonally; no broad brand trade-down — value-seeking via pack/channel .
EMEA color: UK remains competitive with increased promo frequency; CEE soft on consumer confidence; higher UK waste fees pressured margins .
Capital returns & FCF: FCF reiterated (~$1.3B) supported by OBBBA cash tax benefits and working capital; incentive comp reversal aided MG&A .
Strategic/M&A posture: “String of pearls” approach; Fever-Tree integration progressing with distributor excitement; accelerated buybacks signal confidence .

Estimates Context

Metric	Consensus Q2 2025*	Actual Q2 2025	Surprise
Underlying EPS ($)	~$1.82*	$2.05	+$0.23
Revenue ($USD Billions)	~$3.08*	$3.20	+$0.12B
Underlying EBITDA ($USD Millions)	~$688*	$764	+$76M
*Values retrieved from S&P Global. Underlying EPS and EBITDA reflect non-GAAP measures reconciled in the release .

Implications: Consensus likely revises down FY EPS and pre-tax income following guidance cuts, but near-term Q2 beats and Q3 shipment timing tailwind could temper estimate reductions on Q3; interest expense and Midwest premium sensitivities should flow into models .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Q2 beat on revenue, EPS, and EBITDA was driven by price/mix, FX, and MG&A timing; but full-year guidance reset lower reflects sustained macro softness and aluminum Midwest premium surge .
Americas profitability resilience despite volume declines underscores benefit from mix (contract brewing exit, premiumization) and disciplined MG&A .
EMEA & APAC: FX and premiumization support net sales; monitor margin drag from UK regulatory costs and competitive intensity .
H2 setup: Expect Q3 shipment catch-up (~300k hl), lower incentive comp, and continued above-premium initiatives (Peroni, Blue Moon innovations, Fever-Tree) .
Cash generation intact: FCF ~$1.3B reaffirmed, dividend maintained, buybacks accelerated — supportive for total shareholder return amid earnings volatility .
Risk watch: Midwest premium trajectory (60–75¢/lb assumption), U.S. industry trends (H2 -4% to -6%), and share performance stabilization efforts (core and flavors) .
Trading lens: Near-term narrative likely balances Q2 beat vs FY guide-down; catalysts include Q3 shipment timing reversal, above-premium traction, and any moderation in Midwest premium; defensiveness comes from cash returns and balance sheet .

Notes:
- All actual financials, segment data, and management commentary cited from Molson Coors Q2 2025 materials **[24545_3334e27606834c7fab0ce599458248a7_0]** **[24545_3334e27606834c7fab0ce599458248a7_34]** and 8-K **[24545_0000024545-25-000019_tap-20250805.htm:0]** **[24545_0000024545-25-000019_tapex99120250630earningsre.htm:26]**, Q1 2025 press release **[24545_5f4e6109bdc643d3a81bea08eb2b60ff_0]** **[24545_5f4e6109bdc643d3a81bea08eb2b60ff_22]**, and Q4 2024 press release **[24545_6f1a5777e6b54be5bec88f291cf102c5_0]** **[24545_6f1a5777e6b54be5bec88f291cf102c5_36]**.
- Consensus estimates marked with * are values retrieved from S&P Global.

MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE CO (TAP)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary