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    BBB FOODS (TBBB)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Apr 8, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$29.89Last close (Nov 26, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$29.76Open (Nov 27, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-0.13(-0.43%)
    • Robust store expansion and strong same‐store sales growth: Leadership confirmed meeting guidance for 380–420 new stores in 2024 and highlighted a 42% increase in store openings versus last year, alongside double-digit same‐store sales gains, which supports a strong revenue growth trajectory.
    • Self-funded growth with improved operational efficiency: Despite aggressive expansion, the company continues to self‐fund its growth through robust cash generation and a disciplined cost structure, evidenced by declining SG&A as a percentage of revenue and effective operating leverage.
    • Effective pricing strategy and resilient customer demand: Management’s proactive pricing adjustments—balancing volume and margin without immediate price hikes—have boosted transactions and average ticket size, reinforcing a strong value proposition even amid market challenges like a weak peso and adverse weather conditions.
    • Margin Uncertainty: The company relies on a pricing strategy that may delay passing on cost increases from a weak peso environment, which could lead to volatile or compressed margins over several quarters.
    • Expansion Risks: Rapid store expansion—with guidance at 380-420 new stores and compressed operating leverage improvements—could stress operational efficiencies if new stores underperform or if cost benefits are backloaded.
    • Potential Supplier Issues: Although management brushed aside concerns, questions were raised regarding suppliers facing payment difficulties, which might signal underlying supply chain risks and potential disruptions.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Store Openings

    FY 2024

    380 to 420 new store openings

    380 to 420 new store openings

    no change

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Store Expansion Strategy

    Q2 2024 featured a decentralized approach with 121 net new stores and clear 2024 guidance; Q1 2024 reported 94 new stores with disciplined expansion; Q4 2023 saw record-breaking growth with 396 new stores and robust expansion metrics.

    Q3 2024 reported the opening of 131 net new stores with reaffirmed guidance (380–420 stores for 2024) and a focus on long‑term market potential.

    Consistent focus with increased pace

    Vintage Performance

    Across Q2, Q1, and Q4, newer store vintages consistently showed faster ramp‑up, stronger sales curves, and steady solid performance, while older vintages maintained growth.

    Q3 2024 continued the trend, with newer vintages breaking even faster and maintaining strong, improved sales curves.

    Consistent strong performance with continued improvement

    Same-Store Sales Growth

    Q2 reported 10.7% growth with various external factors; Q1 achieved 14.8% growth; Q4 highlighted robust same‑store sales across vintages with mid‑teens guidance.

    Q3 2024 saw 11.6% year‑on‑year growth, driven primarily by a strong increase in transactions and ticket size.

    Stable growth with slight fluctuations

    Operational Efficiency and Cost Management Initiatives

    Q2 emphasized dilution of selling expenses, strategic investments in talent/IT, and strong working capital; Q1 highlighted ongoing efficiency projects; Q4 stressed SG&A dilution and improved operating leverage.

    Q3 2024 achieved a 51‑basis point reduction in SG&A, 54% EBITDA growth, and maintained a self‑funded expansion despite increased store openings.

    Consistent drive toward efficiency with improved cost control

    Pricing Strategy and Margin Management

    Q2 and Q1 discussed dynamic pricing via continuous elasticity testing and better supplier negotiations leading to margin improvements; Q4 emphasized price leadership with improved gross margins achieved through supplier negotiations.

    Q3 2024 maintained a dynamic approach with continuous elasticity testing, resulting in flat year‑over‑year gross margins at 15.8% while balancing pricing and unit margin optimization.

    Steady focus on dynamic pricing and balancing margins

    Currency Exposure and Peso Depreciation Risks

    Q2 highlighted delayed pass‑through effects on COGS and FX gains, with Q1 noting market adjustments over 12–18 months; Q4 did not mention this topic.

    Q3 2024 reported significant USD cash reserves (MXN 2.9 billion in short‑term deposits) and reiterated that the impact of peso depreciation takes 8–18 months to materialize.

    Managed risk with emphasis on hedging; consistent strategy

    Supplier Relationships and Supply Chain Dynamics

    Q2 noted improved supplier terms with scaling and new distribution centers; Q1 highlighted a post‑IPO “halo effect” and scale benefits; Q4 underscored improved negotiations and growing private label penetration.

    Q3 2024 continued to emphasize long‑term planning and improved supplier terms driven by scale, reinforcing strong supply continuity.

    Consistent strengthening of supplier relationships

    Risks from Rapid Expansion and Operational Execution

    Q2 indirectly referred to lumpy store openings and timing challenges; Q1 emphasized disciplined expansion with strong vintage performance; Q4 mentioned operational challenges through timing and cost implications of rapid growth.

    Q3 2024 did not explicitly mention any risks, focusing instead on strong expansion performance and operational efficiency.

    Risks not explicitly discussed; previous concerns remain unhighlighted

    Rising IT, Talent, and Administrative Costs

    Q2 discussed a 45.8% increase in administrative expenses driven by investments in IT, talent, and regional expansion; Q1 mentioned various efficiency initiatives without specific cost concerns; Q4 highlighted additional hiring for public company obligations.

    Q3 2024 noted that administrative expenses remained flat compared to the previous year despite ongoing strategic investments in talent and infrastructure.

    Managed rising costs with continued optimization initiatives

    Competitive Pressures and Reporting Ambiguities

    Q2 addressed competitive pressures in geographical expansion with caution over lumpiness in quarterly metrics; Q1 affirmed their market lead amid healthy competition with some ambiguities in metrics reporting; Q4 clarified competitive positioning and reporting definitions.

    Q3 2024 stressed a robust value proposition against competitors and clarified reporting details regarding same‑store sales breakdown and gross margin fluctuations.

    Consistent acknowledgment of competition with improved reporting clarity

    External Environmental Factors

    Q2 mentioned adverse weather, Easter timing shifts, and election impacts; Q1 did not mention environmental factors; Q4 discussed Hurricane Otis and its nonrecurring expense impact with a strong rebound afterward.

    Q3 2024 only noted minor adverse weather (rain) that had minimal impact on consumer behavior.

    Variability in impact; severe events in Q4 vs. mild effects in Q3

    Post‑IPO Supplier Engagement Dynamics (No Longer Emphasized)

    Q1 highlighted a strong post‑IPO “halo effect” with increased supplier motivation; Q4 noted that improved supplier negotiations benefited from the post‑IPO environment; Q2 did not mention this topic.

    Q3 2024 did not explicitly mention post‑IPO dynamics, with the focus shifting to long‑term supplier relationship management.

    Previously emphasized post‑IPO dynamic now de‑emphasized

    1. Gross Margins
      Q: Why did margins decline and what about leverage?
      A: Management explained that the 16.7% gross margin in Q3 reflects flexible, product‐by‐product pricing decisions rather than a structural trend, with lower margins traded off for higher volumes and improved operating leverage through cost efficiencies. They expect normalized margins to remain flat as they continue investing in growth.

    2. Pricing Lag
      Q: Do price changes yield immediate results?
      A: Management noted that while some categories react immediately to price adjustments, others may take up to three quarters to show benefits, underscoring a gradual and category‐specific impact on sales.

    3. Unit Economics
      Q: What are the new store economic metrics?
      A: The team highlighted a target CapEx of MXN 3.9 million per store coupled with healthy cash-on-cash performance, emphasizing that all growth reinvestment is aimed at maintaining strong unit economics without a fixed CapEx-to-sales ratio.

    4. Store Openings Timing
      Q: How balanced are the new store openings?
      A: Although monthly figures can fluctuate due to market dynamics, management assured that store openings are well-distributed over the year, ensuring steady operating leverage and meeting annual guidance.

    5. Dividend Outlook
      Q: What are the long-term dividend prospects?
      A: Management indicated it is still too early to discuss dividends; any decision in the future will reflect the significant cash generated from self-funding growth and robust operating performance.

    6. FX Gains
      Q: Why were FX gains lower than expected?
      A: The CFO explained that FX gains were consistent with returns on U.S. dollar deposits, and the cash position remains stable with expectations that Q4 results will follow a similar pattern.

    7. Supplier Relations
      Q: How are supplier relationships managed?
      A: As scale increases, management noted that both traditional FMCG and private label suppliers benefit from closer, planned collaboration, which improves purchasing terms and ensures the best value proposition offered to customers.

    8. Ticket vs Traffic
      Q: Can you detail ticket and traffic contributions?
      A: Management stressed that gains in same-store sales have come from both rising transaction numbers and higher average ticket sizes but did not offer a detailed breakdown.

    9. Share Count & Weather
      Q: What about share dilution and weather impact?
      A: The CFO clarified that the reported diluted share count includes only vested and in-the-money options, and noted that weather conditions such as rain did not significantly affect customer demand.

    Research analysts covering BBB FOODS.