Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
- Robust store expansion and strong same‐store sales growth: Leadership confirmed meeting guidance for 380–420 new stores in 2024 and highlighted a 42% increase in store openings versus last year, alongside double-digit same‐store sales gains, which supports a strong revenue growth trajectory.
- Self-funded growth with improved operational efficiency: Despite aggressive expansion, the company continues to self‐fund its growth through robust cash generation and a disciplined cost structure, evidenced by declining SG&A as a percentage of revenue and effective operating leverage.
- Effective pricing strategy and resilient customer demand: Management’s proactive pricing adjustments—balancing volume and margin without immediate price hikes—have boosted transactions and average ticket size, reinforcing a strong value proposition even amid market challenges like a weak peso and adverse weather conditions.
- Margin Uncertainty: The company relies on a pricing strategy that may delay passing on cost increases from a weak peso environment, which could lead to volatile or compressed margins over several quarters.
- Expansion Risks: Rapid store expansion—with guidance at 380-420 new stores and compressed operating leverage improvements—could stress operational efficiencies if new stores underperform or if cost benefits are backloaded.
- Potential Supplier Issues: Although management brushed aside concerns, questions were raised regarding suppliers facing payment difficulties, which might signal underlying supply chain risks and potential disruptions.
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Store Openings | FY 2024 | 380 to 420 new store openings | 380 to 420 new store openings | no change |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
Store Expansion Strategy | Q2 2024 featured a decentralized approach with 121 net new stores and clear 2024 guidance; Q1 2024 reported 94 new stores with disciplined expansion; Q4 2023 saw record-breaking growth with 396 new stores and robust expansion metrics. | Q3 2024 reported the opening of 131 net new stores with reaffirmed guidance (380–420 stores for 2024) and a focus on long‑term market potential. | Consistent focus with increased pace |
Vintage Performance | Across Q2, Q1, and Q4, newer store vintages consistently showed faster ramp‑up, stronger sales curves, and steady solid performance, while older vintages maintained growth. | Q3 2024 continued the trend, with newer vintages breaking even faster and maintaining strong, improved sales curves. | Consistent strong performance with continued improvement |
Same-Store Sales Growth | Q2 reported 10.7% growth with various external factors; Q1 achieved 14.8% growth; Q4 highlighted robust same‑store sales across vintages with mid‑teens guidance. | Q3 2024 saw 11.6% year‑on‑year growth, driven primarily by a strong increase in transactions and ticket size. | Stable growth with slight fluctuations |
Operational Efficiency and Cost Management Initiatives | Q2 emphasized dilution of selling expenses, strategic investments in talent/IT, and strong working capital; Q1 highlighted ongoing efficiency projects; Q4 stressed SG&A dilution and improved operating leverage. | Q3 2024 achieved a 51‑basis point reduction in SG&A, 54% EBITDA growth, and maintained a self‑funded expansion despite increased store openings. | Consistent drive toward efficiency with improved cost control |
Pricing Strategy and Margin Management | Q2 and Q1 discussed dynamic pricing via continuous elasticity testing and better supplier negotiations leading to margin improvements; Q4 emphasized price leadership with improved gross margins achieved through supplier negotiations. | Q3 2024 maintained a dynamic approach with continuous elasticity testing, resulting in flat year‑over‑year gross margins at 15.8% while balancing pricing and unit margin optimization. | Steady focus on dynamic pricing and balancing margins |
Currency Exposure and Peso Depreciation Risks | Q2 highlighted delayed pass‑through effects on COGS and FX gains, with Q1 noting market adjustments over 12–18 months; Q4 did not mention this topic. | Q3 2024 reported significant USD cash reserves (MXN 2.9 billion in short‑term deposits) and reiterated that the impact of peso depreciation takes 8–18 months to materialize. | Managed risk with emphasis on hedging; consistent strategy |
Supplier Relationships and Supply Chain Dynamics | Q2 noted improved supplier terms with scaling and new distribution centers; Q1 highlighted a post‑IPO “halo effect” and scale benefits; Q4 underscored improved negotiations and growing private label penetration. | Q3 2024 continued to emphasize long‑term planning and improved supplier terms driven by scale, reinforcing strong supply continuity. | Consistent strengthening of supplier relationships |
Risks from Rapid Expansion and Operational Execution | Q2 indirectly referred to lumpy store openings and timing challenges; Q1 emphasized disciplined expansion with strong vintage performance; Q4 mentioned operational challenges through timing and cost implications of rapid growth. | Q3 2024 did not explicitly mention any risks, focusing instead on strong expansion performance and operational efficiency. | Risks not explicitly discussed; previous concerns remain unhighlighted |
Rising IT, Talent, and Administrative Costs | Q2 discussed a 45.8% increase in administrative expenses driven by investments in IT, talent, and regional expansion; Q1 mentioned various efficiency initiatives without specific cost concerns; Q4 highlighted additional hiring for public company obligations. | Q3 2024 noted that administrative expenses remained flat compared to the previous year despite ongoing strategic investments in talent and infrastructure. | Managed rising costs with continued optimization initiatives |
Competitive Pressures and Reporting Ambiguities | Q2 addressed competitive pressures in geographical expansion with caution over lumpiness in quarterly metrics; Q1 affirmed their market lead amid healthy competition with some ambiguities in metrics reporting; Q4 clarified competitive positioning and reporting definitions. | Q3 2024 stressed a robust value proposition against competitors and clarified reporting details regarding same‑store sales breakdown and gross margin fluctuations. | Consistent acknowledgment of competition with improved reporting clarity |
External Environmental Factors | Q2 mentioned adverse weather, Easter timing shifts, and election impacts; Q1 did not mention environmental factors; Q4 discussed Hurricane Otis and its nonrecurring expense impact with a strong rebound afterward. | Q3 2024 only noted minor adverse weather (rain) that had minimal impact on consumer behavior. | Variability in impact; severe events in Q4 vs. mild effects in Q3 |
Post‑IPO Supplier Engagement Dynamics (No Longer Emphasized) | Q1 highlighted a strong post‑IPO “halo effect” with increased supplier motivation; Q4 noted that improved supplier negotiations benefited from the post‑IPO environment; Q2 did not mention this topic. | Q3 2024 did not explicitly mention post‑IPO dynamics, with the focus shifting to long‑term supplier relationship management. | Previously emphasized post‑IPO dynamic now de‑emphasized |
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Gross Margins
Q: Why did margins decline and what about leverage?
A: Management explained that the 16.7% gross margin in Q3 reflects flexible, product‐by‐product pricing decisions rather than a structural trend, with lower margins traded off for higher volumes and improved operating leverage through cost efficiencies. They expect normalized margins to remain flat as they continue investing in growth. -
Pricing Lag
Q: Do price changes yield immediate results?
A: Management noted that while some categories react immediately to price adjustments, others may take up to three quarters to show benefits, underscoring a gradual and category‐specific impact on sales. -
Unit Economics
Q: What are the new store economic metrics?
A: The team highlighted a target CapEx of MXN 3.9 million per store coupled with healthy cash-on-cash performance, emphasizing that all growth reinvestment is aimed at maintaining strong unit economics without a fixed CapEx-to-sales ratio. -
Store Openings Timing
Q: How balanced are the new store openings?
A: Although monthly figures can fluctuate due to market dynamics, management assured that store openings are well-distributed over the year, ensuring steady operating leverage and meeting annual guidance. -
Dividend Outlook
Q: What are the long-term dividend prospects?
A: Management indicated it is still too early to discuss dividends; any decision in the future will reflect the significant cash generated from self-funding growth and robust operating performance. -
FX Gains
Q: Why were FX gains lower than expected?
A: The CFO explained that FX gains were consistent with returns on U.S. dollar deposits, and the cash position remains stable with expectations that Q4 results will follow a similar pattern. -
Supplier Relations
Q: How are supplier relationships managed?
A: As scale increases, management noted that both traditional FMCG and private label suppliers benefit from closer, planned collaboration, which improves purchasing terms and ensures the best value proposition offered to customers. -
Ticket vs Traffic
Q: Can you detail ticket and traffic contributions?
A: Management stressed that gains in same-store sales have come from both rising transaction numbers and higher average ticket sizes but did not offer a detailed breakdown. -
Share Count & Weather
Q: What about share dilution and weather impact?
A: The CFO clarified that the reported diluted share count includes only vested and in-the-money options, and noted that weather conditions such as rain did not significantly affect customer demand.
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