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    BBB FOODS (TBBB)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Apr 10, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$26.65Last close (Apr 10, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$26.65Open (Apr 11, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.00(0.00%)
    • Robust Same-Store Sales Momentum: Executives highlighted that mature stores continue to deliver strong customer traffic and increased ticket size, supporting guidance of 11%–14% same-store sales growth in 2025, which reflects an enduring improvement in the value proposition.
    • Aggressive, Decentralized Store Expansion: The discussion emphasized a proven store opening model—with each regional team averaging 2 new stores per month—and an ambitious target of opening 500–550 new stores in 2025, underpinned by abundant white space in key markets.
    • Operational Efficiency & Enhanced Private Label Penetration: Continued scaling and improvements in purchasing power are boosting gross margins over time, while the rising contribution of private labels (up from 47% to 54% of sales) signals a strengthening competitive edge and enduring operational leverage.
    • Tax Rate Volatility: The management acknowledged that tax rates have been volatile, influenced by factors such as nonrecurring expenses and currency fluctuations. This unpredictability could complicate earnings forecasts and impact profitability in the near term.
    • Rising Operational Expenses: Significant investments in talent and compliance are increasing administrative and sales expenses. While these investments are expected to improve long-term efficiency, they currently pressure margins and could limit operating leverage as the company scales.
    • Dependence on Consumption Trends: The strong same‐store sales growth and improved private label penetration are key to the company’s performance. However, any unforeseen slowdown in consumer spending or shifts in competitive dynamics—especially in dense markets—could adversely impact these growth drivers.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Same-store sales growth

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    11% to 14%

    no prior guidance

    Total revenue growth

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    26% to 29%

    no prior guidance

    Store Openings

    FY 2025

    380 to 420 new store openings

    500 to 550 new store openings

    raised

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Consistent Store Expansion

    Q1, Q2, and Q3 consistently highlighted store openings – 94 in Q1 , 121 in Q2 and 131 in Q3 – emphasizing a strong growth narrative.

    Q4 continued the positive tone with 138 net new stores in Q4 and 484 net new stores for the year, along with plans for 500–550 new stores and four new regions for 2025.

    Steady and robust expansion with an accelerated pace and broader geographic coverage.

    Expansion Risks

    In earlier quarters, risks were noted around lumpy real estate processes, permit delays, and potential cost effects from currency depreciation (especially in Q2 ) while Q1 mentioned maintaining a consistent risk grade.

    Q4 focused on permit bottlenecks and economic uncertainties but stressed proactive mitigation measures with a robust pipeline.

    Risks remain a consideration but are being proactively managed with clearer strategies and robust pipeline improvements.

    Same-Store Sales Growth

    Consistently reported strong organic growth: Q1 at 14.8% , Q2 at 10.7% , and Q3 at 11.6%. The narrative centered on improved value proposition and customer engagement.

    Q4 reported 11.8% for the quarter and 13.4% full year, with emphasis on enhanced value through pricing, quality, and private label improvements.

    Stable and strong growth with minor fluctuations, reflecting a consistently positive sales performance.

    Customer Traffic

    Earlier calls mentioned an increasing number of transactions in Q1 , robust traffic drives in Q2 , and a notable rise in Q3 which was linked to strong same-store sales growth.

    In Q4, customer traffic was again highlighted with a 4.6% increase in stores with 5+ years, reflecting fresh customers entering older stores and contributing to higher unit sales.

    Continued positive momentum with consistent increases in customer visits reinforcing the growth story.

    Operational Efficiency and Margin Management

    Q1 discussions (e.g. using technology and decentralized store openings ) and Q2 emphasized negative working capital (10.2%–10.3% of revenue ) while Q3 showed reduced SG&A percentages and strong EBITDA improvements.

    Q4 detailed continued operational efficiency with adjusted negative working capital at 10.6%, strong store-level efficiency and margin management even as SG&A and admin expenses rose partly due to nonrecurring items and talent investment.

    A persistent focus on efficiency and strategic cost management, with Q4 showing further scaling and margin robustness despite rising targeted expenses.

    Effective Pricing Strategy

    Q1 emphasized dynamic, SKU-by-SKU pricing and continuous elasticity testing , Q2 noted similar dynamic approaches with trade-offs between volume and margin , and Q3 reiterated optimization without a fixed margin target.

    In Q4, the approach continues with continuous elasticity testing, balancing cost improvements with pricing adjustments and a key role for private labels in strengthening the value proposition.

    Consistently effective strategy; the evolution is marked by further integration with private label growth and refined elasticity tests in Q4.

    Supplier Dynamics

    Q1 highlighted a strong post-IPO halo effect improving supplier engagement and better terms. Q2 and Q3 further emphasized improved supplier relationships through scale and planning, although Q3 noted mild external issues with affiliate finances.

    Q4 emphasized proactive long‐term planning for 2025 with suppliers, noting that current market uncertainties have already been factored in, with no major disruptions expected.

    Supplier relationships remain strong; while the earlier IPO-driven enthusiasm has stabilized, the focus is now on strategic long-term planning rather than immediate post-IPO effects.

    Currency Vulnerability and Cost Pressures

    Q1 acknowledged market susceptibility to peso fluctuations and Q2 discussed a delayed pass-through of currency effects along with institutional hedging via cash deposits. Q3 noted weaker peso effects on manufacturing costs with an 8–18 month lag.

    Q4 provided a nuanced view with positive FX impacts from retained USD together with increased SG&A expenses (including nonrecurring items) and ongoing cost management strategies.

    A mixed picture: persistent cost pressures and currency sensitivity remain, yet effective FX management and cost control initiatives are in place.

    Tax Rate Volatility

    No material discussion in Q1–Q3; the topic was not mentioned at all in earlier earnings calls.

    Q4 introduced the topic with a discussion on the volatility driven by income tax calculations at the Mexican operating level and FX effects, with further details promised in the forthcoming 20F filing.

    Emerging as a new topic in Q4; while not previously addressed, it may have large future implications given FX volatility and the complexity of tax calculations.

    Enhanced Private Label Penetration

    Q1 detailed rising penetration with private labels accounting for 45–50% of sales and expectations of further increases. Q2 briefly mentioned the product mix as a multiyear trend. Q3 had no specific commentary.

    Q4 emphasized enhanced private label penetration with figures rising to 54% from 47% in 2023, along with improved quality and value that drive higher same‐store sales and unit volumes.

    Growing emphasis on private labels as a key differentiator; the evolving product mix is driving stronger customer value despite occasional impacts on basket size.

    Dependence on Consumption Trends

    Q1 confirmed solid consumption trends supported by minimum wage increases and resilient demand. Q2 had no specific mention. Q3 noted that despite a broader tightening of consumer wallets, the value proposition was drawing in trade-down shoppers.

    Q4 reiterated that despite a trough in overall consumption trends in Mexico, the company’s strong value proposition and long-standing customer loyalty have insulated performance.

    Consistent resilience despite external economic challenges; the narrative remains positive with an emphasis on value and customer loyalty mitigating broader consumption risks.

    Post-IPO Impact on Supplier Engagement

    Q1 was noted for a strong positive “halo” effect from the IPO that energized suppliers to be more responsive. Q2 and Q3 did not revisit the topic explicitly.

    Q4 suggests that while previously the post-IPO impact was significant, it is now less emphasized as supplier discussions have shifted toward long-term planning for 2025, indicating stabilization of supplier engagement.

    A shift from high IPO-driven enthusiasm to a more stabilized, forward-looking supplier relationship management approach, with less emphasis on the post-IPO effect.

    1. Store Openings
      Q: What drove exceeding store opening guidance?
      A: Management explained that strong real estate opportunities, ample capital, and an efficient talent pipeline boosted store openings, with 500–550 new stores projected for 2025 through decentralized regional teams streamlining permits and operations ( ).

    2. Same-Store Sales
      Q: Will same-store sales remain resilient?
      A: They noted robust same-store sales growth driven by an improved value proposition and increased ticket size, expecting this strong performance to persist relative to market trends ( ).

    3. Gross Margin
      Q: What is the outlook for margin expansion?
      A: Management outlined that economies of scale and enhanced purchasing power are gradually lifting gross margins, though some quarter-to-quarter volatility remains, with an overall upward trend expected ( ).

    4. Private Labels
      Q: What drives rising private label penetration?
      A: They attributed the trend to continuous improvements in product quality, pricing, and value offerings that shift sales toward private labels, reflecting global patterns ( ).

    5. Expense Efficiency
      Q: What expense levels are optimal as a percentage of sales?
      A: Management stressed that both selling and administrative expenses will decline as a percentage of sales with ongoing scale, despite current investments in talent and infrastructure for growth ( ).

    6. Tax Volatility
      Q: How should we interpret tax rate volatility?
      A: They advised stripping out non-core expenses like ESOPs, FX impacts, and promissory notes, then applying a 30% rate to Mexican operations to achieve a more consistent tax measure ( ).

    7. Store Density
      Q: Have you reached limits in store density growth?
      A: Management observed no saturation in store density, noting that even in high-density areas like Mexico City, opportunities remain abundant due to broad economic purchasing power ( ).

    8. Ultra Fresh Category
      Q: Could ultra fresh sell affect margins significantly?
      A: They indicated that launching ultra fresh items, such as prudent vegetables, will only proceed if operational efficiency and value creation are proven, ensuring it does not negatively impact margins ( ).

    9. Cost and Compliance
      Q: How are new competencies impacting cost structure?
      A: Management clarified that investments in enhanced capabilities and regulatory compliance are necessary for growth, and while they temporarily increase costs, these expenses will diminish as a percentage of revenue over time ( ).

    10. Strategic Balance
      Q: How balance expansion, capabilities, and innovation initiatives?
      A: They maintained that a strategic blend of decentralized store expansion, continuous product and service enhancements, and targeted innovation will drive sustainable growth while capitalizing on ample market white space ( ).

    Research analysts covering BBB FOODS.