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Taboola.com Ltd. (TBLA)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Strong execution: Q2 revenue $465.5M, ex-TAC gross profit $172.1M, and Adjusted EBITDA $45.2M all exceeded the high end of guidance; FY25 guidance raised across all key metrics .
  • Quality of growth improved: ex-TAC GP grew 15.1% YoY (FX tailwind ~45 bps) driven by higher ad spend, mix shift to higher-margin publishers, Taboola News and Bidded Supply; Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 26.2% (+130 bps YoY) on cost discipline and infrastructure savings .
  • Capital returns accelerated: ~12% of shares repurchased in 1H25; board authorized an incremental $200M, bringing total authorization to ~ $285M as of Aug 1; net cash ~$27M, revolver provides flexibility .
  • Key stock catalysts: raised FY25 guide, improving profitability/FCF conversion, early traction from Realize (performance ads beyond native), and continued buybacks; watch ARPSA growth pace and China/tariff sensitivity .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Beat-and-raise quarter: Revenue, ex-TAC GP, and Adjusted EBITDA all topped high end of guide; FY25 guidance lifted across revenue, gross profit, ex-TAC GP, Adjusted EBITDA, and Non-GAAP NI .
    • Profitability mix improving: 15.1% ex-TAC GP growth on higher-margin publisher mix and contributions from Taboola News and Bidded Supply; margin expansion aided by lower server/network depreciation .
    • Strategic momentum: Early traction from Realize with ~650 advertisers testing display/social since February; CEO: “We’re raising full-year guidance across the board…exciting early traction with Realize” .
  • What Went Wrong

    • ARPSA growth modest: Average revenue per scaled advertiser rose ~2% YoY; analysts flagged the low growth vs the strategic goal of expanding budgets from existing clients .
    • China/tariff headwind: China-related spend had been a modest drag (~1% impact previously); management assumes no recovery in 2H25 despite slight recent improvement .
    • GAAP EPS still negative: Diluted GAAP EPS remained ($0.01); non-GAAP profits positive, but GAAP net loss persisted at ($4.3M) .

Financial Results

Overall performance vs prior two quarters (oldest → newest):

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($M)$491.0 $427.5 $465.5
Gross Profit ($M)$177.6 $119.3 $135.6
ex-TAC Gross Profit ($M)$212.7 $151.7 $172.1
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$92.3 $35.9 $45.2
Non-GAAP Net Income ($M)$73.3 $25.0 $30.2
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.10 ($0.03) ($0.01)
Cash from Operations ($M)$61.9 $48.1 $47.4
Free Cash Flow ($M)$51.9 $36.1 $34.2
Cash & Equivalents ($M)$230.4 $216.2 $115.2

Q2 2025 YoY growth vs Q2 2024:

MetricQ2 2025 YoY
Revenue+8.7%
Gross Profit+18.2%
ex-TAC Gross Profit+15.1% (FX +0.5%)
Adjusted EBITDA+21.3% (margin 26.2% vs 24.9%)

Consensus vs actual (Q2 2025):

MetricConsensus*ActualResult
Revenue ($M)$448.6*$465.5 Beat
Primary EPS (Non-GAAP) ($)$0.083*$0.096*Beat

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and metrics:

KPIQ2 2025Prior Year / Comment
Scaled Advertisers YoY growth+8.5% Healthy new-customer adds
Avg Rev per Scaled Advertiser YoY+1.8% Modest; mix reflects newer advertisers start smaller
Adjusted EBITDA margin26.2% 24.9% in Q2’24
Taboola NewsDouble-digit growth Key unique supply driver

Drivers and mix commentary:

  • ex-TAC GP growth driven by higher ad spend, shift to higher-margin digital property partners, Taboola News and Bidded Supply; partial favorable compare from Yahoo onboarding in the year-ago period .
  • Gross profit benefited from cost actions, including reduced server/network depreciation following useful life reassessment .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($M)FY 2025$1,838–$1,888 $1,858–$1,888 Raised (low end)
Gross Profit ($M)FY 2025$536–$552 $541–$555 Raised
ex-TAC Gross Profit ($M)FY 2025$674–$690 $689–$703 Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2025$201–$209 $208–$214 Raised
Non-GAAP Net Income ($M)FY 2025$122–$128 $138–$144 Raised materially
Revenue ($M)Q3 2025$461–$469 New
Gross Profit ($M)Q3 2025$127–$133 New
ex-TAC Gross Profit ($M)Q3 2025$166–$172 New
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)Q3 2025$43–$48 New
Non-GAAP Net Income ($M)Q3 2025$29–$34 New
Share repurchase authorizationn/a+$200M incremental; total auth. ~ $285M as of Aug 1 Expanded

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024 (Q-2)Q1 2025 (Q-1)Q2 2025 (Current)Trend
AI/Technology initiativesLaunch of Realize performance platform; focus on 2025 investments Building momentum; above guidance; Realize traction noted Early traction: ~650 advertisers tested display/social; expanding beyond native Positive adoption, still early
Macro/tariffsNot highlighted in PRStable ad market backdropStability; tariffs watched; assuming no China recovery in 2H Neutral to slight headwind from China
Product performance2024 transformative; strong results Broad-based growth in native Taboola News double-digit growth; Bidded Supply strong Improving mix/unique supply
Regional trendsGlobal footprint notedChina modest drag (~1% previously), ~5% of revenue; slight recovery, not in guide Cautious on China
Regulatory/legalBuyback process subject to Israeli approvals; no update on 25% exemption Ongoing
R&D/InfrastructureLower server/network depreciation benefited gross profit Cost discipline continues
Capital allocationAuthorization +$200M announced Returning capital via buybacks ~12% shares repurchased 1H25; +$200M incremental authorization Aggressive buybacks sustained

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We delivered a strong second quarter, beating the high end of our guidance…raising full-year guidance across the board…seeing exciting early traction with Realize…We truly believe we're just getting started.”
  • CEO on Realize: “Realize expands our reach beyond native…display and social…650 advertisers have already tested our new display and social capabilities since the February launch.”
  • CEO on open web/LLMs: Minimal impact to date; only ~5% of company traffic from Google search; sees opportunity for LLM experiences on publisher sites creating new high-intent touchpoints .
  • CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA margin was 26.2%, improved by 130 bps YoY…benefited from healthy ex-TAC growth and strong cost discipline…We ended Q2 with net cash ~$27.2M; $270M revolver provides significant liquidity.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Path back to double-digit growth: Management pegs Realize as the primary lever to re-accelerate beyond the 3–5% FY growth embedded in FY25 guide; not yet in FY25 outlook .
  • ARPSA debate: Analysts questioned modest +2% ARPSA; CFO notes mix effect from onboarding new scaled advertisers; considering “same-store” disclosure in the future .
  • Open web durability vs AI search: CEO argues limited current impact and long-term opportunity from publisher-embedded LLMs elevating intent moments .
  • China/tariffs: Slight recovery observed but not embedded in guidance; China ~5% of revenue, prior drag ~1% .
  • Capital allocation: Company using revolver to run cash-neutral on average and prioritize buybacks; incremental $200M authorization secured .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025: Revenue and Primary (non-GAAP) EPS both beat S&P Global consensus; revenue $465.5M vs $448.6M*; Primary EPS $0.096* vs $0.083* . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Implication: Estimate revisions likely skew positive on revenue and non-GAAP EPS; Adjusted EBITDA performance and raised FY guide should also support upward tweaks to FY25 profitability frameworks .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Beat-and-raise quarter with expanding profitability and strong FCF conversion; execution credibility improving .
  • Mix shift and infrastructure optimization underpin margin expansion; these drivers appear durable into 2H25 .
  • Realize is the medium-term growth call option; early traction across display/social broadens TAM beyond native; tangible KPI to track is growth in scaled advertisers and ARPSA acceleration .
  • Unique supply (Taboola News, OEM lock screens) offers differentiated performance inventory as alternatives to search/social saturate .
  • China remains a watch item; guidance prudently assumes no rebound despite slight recent improvement .
  • Aggressive buybacks (12% in 1H25) and additional $200M authorization provide support; revolver gives flexibility with net cash position maintained .
  • Near-term setup: Q3 guide implies continued stability; track estimate revisions post-raise and any disclosures on Realize monetization milestones .

Appendix: Current Guidance Detail

Q3 2025 and FY 2025 (as of Aug 6, 2025):

MetricQ3 2025 GuidanceFY 2025 Guidance
Revenue ($M)$461–$469 $1,858–$1,888
Gross Profit ($M)$127–$133 $541–$555
ex-TAC Gross Profit ($M)$166–$172 $689–$703
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$43–$48 $208–$214
Non-GAAP Net Income ($M)$29–$34 $138–$144

Management notes they cannot reconcile non-GAAP guidance to GAAP without unreasonable effort due to variability in items like share-based compensation and warrant valuations .