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Taboola.com Ltd. (TBLA)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 delivered broad beats vs guidance and S&P consensus: revenue $496.8M (+14.7% y/y), ex-TAC Gross Profit $176.8M (+6.3% y/y), Adjusted EBITDA $48.2M (27.3% margin), and GAAP diluted EPS $0.02; management raised FY25 guidance across metrics . Versus S&P consensus, revenue beat by ~$31.2M (~6.7%) and Primary EPS beat by ~$0.02; see tables below (S&P Global) .
  • Realize reached an “inflection point” as scaled advertisers rose 4% to 2,064 and average revenue per scaled advertiser grew 11% y/y; Taboola News and Bidded Supply also contributed. App traffic is now ~1/3 of supply, while search exposure remains in single digits .
  • FX (+$2M opex headwind), higher hosting, and increased Realize marketing spend pressured margins y/y; Q4 EBITDA guide embeds >$5M FX opex headwind, partly offset by ex-TAC tailwinds .
  • Capital allocation remains a catalyst: net cash $41.5M, $34.4M Q3 buybacks (~10M shares), ~14% of shares repurchased YTD; no longer required to repurchase from Yahoo for the balance of 2025, enabling more open-market buybacks .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Realize momentum: “third quarter results beating the high-end of our guidance across all metrics”; scaled advertisers +4% to 2,064 and ARPS +11% y/y; CEO: “Realize is at an inflection point” .
    • Broad-based growth: Revenue +14.7% y/y to $496.8M; ex-TAC Gross Profit +6.3% y/y, aided by strong ad spend, Taboola News, and Bidded Supply .
    • Cash generation and returns: FCF $46.3M (96% conversion of adjusted EBITDA in Q3); YTD buybacks ~14% of shares; CFO reiterated long-term 60–70% FCF conversion target .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Margin mix and costs: ex-TAC margin % down y/y given last year’s Yahoo testing; higher hosting and increased Realize marketing spend; FX headwinds (~$2M in Q3) also weighed .
    • Q4 setup: ex-TAC dollars guided down y/y largely due to Yahoo onboarding distortion in 2024 and lower China advertiser demand from tariffs; EBITDA guide includes >$5M FX opex headwind .
    • Ongoing non-GAAP adjustments: Significant amortization and share-based comp continue to drive a gap between GAAP net income ($5.2M) and Non-GAAP Net Income ($34.3M) .

Financial Results

QTD performance vs prior periods and S&P consensus (oldest → newest)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($M)$427.5 $465.5 $496.8
y/y Growth+3% +8.7% +14.7%
ex-TAC Gross Profit ($M)$151.7 $172.1 $176.8
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$35.9 $45.2 $48.2
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (Adj EBITDA / ex-TAC)23.7% 26.2% 27.3%
GAAP Net Income (Loss) ($M)$(8.8) $(4.3) $5.2
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$(0.03) $(0.01) $0.02
Non-GAAP Net Income ($M)$25.0 $30.2 $34.3
Cash from Ops ($M)$48.1 $47.4 $53.2
Free Cash Flow ($M)$36.1 $34.2 $46.3

Consensus vs actuals (S&P Global)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($M)$418.3*$448.6*$465.6*
Revenue Actual ($M)$427.5 $465.5 $496.8
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)$0.013*$0.083*$0.09*
Primary EPS Actual ($)$0.0731*$0.0963*$0.1121*
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($M)$24.0*$41.0*$45.8*

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and Mix

KPI/MixQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Scaled Advertisers (y/y change)+9% +8.5% +4.4%
Avg Rev/Scaled Advertiser (y/y change)(3%) +1.8% +10.9%
Scaled Advertisers (count)2,064
App Traffic as % of Supply~1/3
Search Exposure~5% search share stated earlier in year Single digits

Segment breakdown: Not disclosed as segments. Management and materials emphasize network economics (ex-TAC Gross Profit) and advertiser/publisher KPIs .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenues ($M)Q4 2025$532–$542 New
Gross Profit ($M)Q4 2025$166–$171 New
ex-TAC Gross Profit ($M)Q4 2025$204–$210 New
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)Q4 2025$83–$85 New
Non-GAAP Net Income ($M)Q4 2025$52–$56 New
Revenues ($B)FY 2025$1.858–$1.888 (Q2 PR) $1.914–$1.932 Raised
Gross Profit ($M)FY 2025$541–$555 (Q2 PR) $550–$564 Raised
ex-TAC Gross Profit ($M)FY 2025$689–$703 (Q2 PR) $700–$710 Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2025$208–$214 (Q2 PR) $209–$214 Raised (midpoint)
Non-GAAP Net Income ($M)FY 2025$138–$144 (Q2 PR) $139–$144 Raised (low end)

Notes: Company does not guide GAAP net income due to variability of non-cash items; see reconciliation notes .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025 and Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
AI/technology initiatives (Realize, Abby, Predictive Audiences)Q1: Early Realize traction cited in PR . Q2: Realize expands beyond native; 650 advertisers testing; Abby assistant demos; predictive audiences; AI drives yield .“Inflection point” for Realize; scaled advertisers +4% to 2,064; ARPS +11%; continued marketing and hosting investments; Abby and AI productivity use cases reiterated .Improving execution; growing adoption
Supply mix, LLM/search impactQ2: Search exposure ~5%; minimal LLM-driven impact; Taboola News growing double digits .App traffic ~1/3 of supply; search exposure remains single digits; Taboola News growth continues .Resilient supply; favorable mix shift
Tariffs/macroQ2: China ad demand down; not material; cautious guide .Q4 ex-TAC y/y softness partly from unusually strong China in Q4’24 and 2025 tariffs .Ongoing headwind in comparisons
Product/performance (Taboola News, Bidded Supply)Q2: Strong contributions; OEM and device partnerships expanding .Continued outperformance from Taboola News and Bidded Supply .Positive momentum
Capital allocationQ2: New $270M revolver; buybacks shrank SO by ~12% 1H25; added $200M authorization .Net cash ~$41.5M; Q3 buybacks ~$34.4M; ~14% YTD; no longer required to buy from Yahoo for balance of 2025 .Aggressive repurchases continue
Regulatory/legalQ2: Litigation-related “other costs” in non-GAAP reconciliation .Q3: Other costs include litigation-related expenses .Persistent but not core to ops

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We delivered another strong quarter with our third quarter results beating the high-end of our guidance across all metrics... Realize is at an inflection point... we’re continuing to aggressively buy back shares, having already repurchased 14% of the company this year.” .
  • CFO: “ex-TAC gross profit for the third quarter came in at $176.8 million, up 6.3% y/y including a 55 bps FX tailwind… adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.3%... we increased marketing spend for Realize based on the traction we are seeing.” .
  • On supply/search: “Our exposure to search traffic globally remained in the single digits… app traffic now accounting for roughly 1/3 of our global supply.” .
  • On Q4/FY guide: “Q4 adjusted EBITDA guidance reflects a forecasted headwind from FX of over $5 million on operating expenses… We are raising our guidance across the board.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Realize ramp and sales motion: Focus on shifting perception beyond native, ICPs (finance, auto, health, DTC), and iterating tech (predictive audiences, formats). Paramount partnership aims to connect CTV exposure with open-web performance and measurable outcomes (early stage) .
  • Margins/COGS cadence: ex-TAC margin % down y/y due to prior Yahoo testing methodology; other cost of revenue movements reflect server life changes and capitalized project accounting; Q4 ex-TAC y/y impacted by 2024 Yahoo onboarding and China .
  • FX and opex: $2M FX headwind in Q3; >$5M FX opex headwind embedded in Q4 guide .
  • Capital structure: ~10M shares repurchased in Q3 ($34.4M); ~14% YTD; revolver supports liquidity; no further required purchases from Yahoo in 2025, enabling more open-market buybacks .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 Revenue: $496.8M vs S&P consensus $465.6M* → beat by ~$31.2M (~6.7%). Q3 Primary EPS: $0.1121* vs $0.09* → beat by ~$0.022. Q3 EBITDA: S&P consensus $45.8M* vs S&P “actual” $39.2M*; note company’s Adjusted EBITDA is $48.2M (definitions differ) . Values with asterisks from S&P Global.
  • Prior quarters also beat: Q1 and Q2 revenue and Primary EPS exceeded S&P consensus; see table above (S&P Global).
  • Implications: Sell-side models likely move higher for FY25 revenue/ex-TAC/Adj EBITDA after the raise; near-term Q4 ex-TAC y/y softness and FX opex headwinds may temper margin expectations (especially vs Q4’24 comps) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Realize appears to be driving a durable improvement in advertiser success (scaled advertisers +4% to 2,064; ARPS +11%), supporting multi-quarter ex-TAC and revenue growth into 2026 if execution persists .
  • Mix quality improving: app traffic ~1/3 of supply, search exposure remains low, and Taboola News/OEM distribution provide differentiated, LLM-resilient inventory .
  • FY25 raised across the board; however, Q4 reflects FX opex headwinds (> $5M) and difficult ex-TAC compares tied to last year’s Yahoo onboarding and China demand, which may cap near-term margin expansion .
  • Cash generation and capital returns are material: 96% FCF/EBITDA conversion in Q3; long-term target 60–70%; ~14% share count reduction YTD augments per-share growth .
  • Watch list: Realize adoption across ICPs, EBITDA leverage vs FX/hosting/marketing spend, China advertiser demand normalization, and continued Taboola News/device partner expansion .
  • Stock catalysts: sustained revenue/ex-TAC beats; visibility on Realize-driven budget shifts; incremental OEM/CTV partnerships; and continued aggressive buybacks funded by robust FCF .

Appendix: Other Relevant Q3 2025 Materials

  • Earnings press release (Nov 5): Results and guidance; non-GAAP reconciliations .
  • 8-K Item 2.02 with Exhibit 99.1 press release and financial statements .
  • Investor conferences: RBC (Nov 18), UBS (Dec 2) .
  • Pre-announcement of earnings date (Oct 16) .

S&P Global disclaimer: All values marked with asterisks (*) are retrieved from S&P Global consensus/actuals data.