TL
Taboola.com Ltd. (TBLA)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 delivered broad beats vs guidance and S&P consensus: revenue $496.8M (+14.7% y/y), ex-TAC Gross Profit $176.8M (+6.3% y/y), Adjusted EBITDA $48.2M (27.3% margin), and GAAP diluted EPS $0.02; management raised FY25 guidance across metrics . Versus S&P consensus, revenue beat by ~$31.2M (~6.7%) and Primary EPS beat by ~$0.02; see tables below (S&P Global) .
- Realize reached an “inflection point” as scaled advertisers rose 4% to 2,064 and average revenue per scaled advertiser grew 11% y/y; Taboola News and Bidded Supply also contributed. App traffic is now ~1/3 of supply, while search exposure remains in single digits .
- FX (+$2M opex headwind), higher hosting, and increased Realize marketing spend pressured margins y/y; Q4 EBITDA guide embeds >$5M FX opex headwind, partly offset by ex-TAC tailwinds .
- Capital allocation remains a catalyst: net cash $41.5M, $34.4M Q3 buybacks (~10M shares), ~14% of shares repurchased YTD; no longer required to repurchase from Yahoo for the balance of 2025, enabling more open-market buybacks .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Realize momentum: “third quarter results beating the high-end of our guidance across all metrics”; scaled advertisers +4% to 2,064 and ARPS +11% y/y; CEO: “Realize is at an inflection point” .
- Broad-based growth: Revenue +14.7% y/y to $496.8M; ex-TAC Gross Profit +6.3% y/y, aided by strong ad spend, Taboola News, and Bidded Supply .
- Cash generation and returns: FCF $46.3M (96% conversion of adjusted EBITDA in Q3); YTD buybacks ~14% of shares; CFO reiterated long-term 60–70% FCF conversion target .
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What Went Wrong
- Margin mix and costs: ex-TAC margin % down y/y given last year’s Yahoo testing; higher hosting and increased Realize marketing spend; FX headwinds (~$2M in Q3) also weighed .
- Q4 setup: ex-TAC dollars guided down y/y largely due to Yahoo onboarding distortion in 2024 and lower China advertiser demand from tariffs; EBITDA guide includes >$5M FX opex headwind .
- Ongoing non-GAAP adjustments: Significant amortization and share-based comp continue to drive a gap between GAAP net income ($5.2M) and Non-GAAP Net Income ($34.3M) .
Financial Results
QTD performance vs prior periods and S&P consensus (oldest → newest)
Consensus vs actuals (S&P Global)
Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.
KPIs and Mix
Segment breakdown: Not disclosed as segments. Management and materials emphasize network economics (ex-TAC Gross Profit) and advertiser/publisher KPIs .
Guidance Changes
Notes: Company does not guide GAAP net income due to variability of non-cash items; see reconciliation notes .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “We delivered another strong quarter with our third quarter results beating the high-end of our guidance across all metrics... Realize is at an inflection point... we’re continuing to aggressively buy back shares, having already repurchased 14% of the company this year.” .
- CFO: “ex-TAC gross profit for the third quarter came in at $176.8 million, up 6.3% y/y including a 55 bps FX tailwind… adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.3%... we increased marketing spend for Realize based on the traction we are seeing.” .
- On supply/search: “Our exposure to search traffic globally remained in the single digits… app traffic now accounting for roughly 1/3 of our global supply.” .
- On Q4/FY guide: “Q4 adjusted EBITDA guidance reflects a forecasted headwind from FX of over $5 million on operating expenses… We are raising our guidance across the board.” .
Q&A Highlights
- Realize ramp and sales motion: Focus on shifting perception beyond native, ICPs (finance, auto, health, DTC), and iterating tech (predictive audiences, formats). Paramount partnership aims to connect CTV exposure with open-web performance and measurable outcomes (early stage) .
- Margins/COGS cadence: ex-TAC margin % down y/y due to prior Yahoo testing methodology; other cost of revenue movements reflect server life changes and capitalized project accounting; Q4 ex-TAC y/y impacted by 2024 Yahoo onboarding and China .
- FX and opex: $2M FX headwind in Q3; >$5M FX opex headwind embedded in Q4 guide .
- Capital structure: ~10M shares repurchased in Q3 ($34.4M); ~14% YTD; revolver supports liquidity; no further required purchases from Yahoo in 2025, enabling more open-market buybacks .
Estimates Context
- Q3 Revenue: $496.8M vs S&P consensus $465.6M* → beat by ~$31.2M (~6.7%). Q3 Primary EPS: $0.1121* vs $0.09* → beat by ~$0.022. Q3 EBITDA: S&P consensus $45.8M* vs S&P “actual” $39.2M*; note company’s Adjusted EBITDA is $48.2M (definitions differ) . Values with asterisks from S&P Global.
- Prior quarters also beat: Q1 and Q2 revenue and Primary EPS exceeded S&P consensus; see table above (S&P Global).
- Implications: Sell-side models likely move higher for FY25 revenue/ex-TAC/Adj EBITDA after the raise; near-term Q4 ex-TAC y/y softness and FX opex headwinds may temper margin expectations (especially vs Q4’24 comps) .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Realize appears to be driving a durable improvement in advertiser success (scaled advertisers +4% to 2,064; ARPS +11%), supporting multi-quarter ex-TAC and revenue growth into 2026 if execution persists .
- Mix quality improving: app traffic ~1/3 of supply, search exposure remains low, and Taboola News/OEM distribution provide differentiated, LLM-resilient inventory .
- FY25 raised across the board; however, Q4 reflects FX opex headwinds (> $5M) and difficult ex-TAC compares tied to last year’s Yahoo onboarding and China demand, which may cap near-term margin expansion .
- Cash generation and capital returns are material: 96% FCF/EBITDA conversion in Q3; long-term target 60–70%; ~14% share count reduction YTD augments per-share growth .
- Watch list: Realize adoption across ICPs, EBITDA leverage vs FX/hosting/marketing spend, China advertiser demand normalization, and continued Taboola News/device partner expansion .
- Stock catalysts: sustained revenue/ex-TAC beats; visibility on Realize-driven budget shifts; incremental OEM/CTV partnerships; and continued aggressive buybacks funded by robust FCF .
Appendix: Other Relevant Q3 2025 Materials
- Earnings press release (Nov 5): Results and guidance; non-GAAP reconciliations .
- 8-K Item 2.02 with Exhibit 99.1 press release and financial statements .
- Investor conferences: RBC (Nov 18), UBS (Dec 2) .
- Pre-announcement of earnings date (Oct 16) .
S&P Global disclaimer: All values marked with asterisks (*) are retrieved from S&P Global consensus/actuals data.