Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

TR

Tamboran Resources Corp (TBN)·Q1 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 FY26 marked a pivotal execution quarter: the Shenandoah South Pilot Project reached FID, the SS-6H 60-stage stimulation commenced, and both SPCF (68% complete) and APA’s Sturt Plateau Pipeline (60% welded) remained on budget and schedule for mid‑2026 first gas .
  • Funding strengthened materially: $56.1M gross Public Offering at $21/share, up to $32M PIPE pending shareholder vote, and an SPCF facility financing backed by a Northern Territory guarantee; quarter-end cash was $39.6M with ~$100M near-term inflows, positioning Tamboran to fund pilot wells and SPCF commissioning .
  • Operational efficiencies improved: three 10,000‑ft horizontals drilled ahead of schedule and below budget; average spud-to-TD 26.7 days; stimulation design updated toward ~2,250 lb/ft proppant and ~55 bbl/ft water, and tracer-tagged native sand tests to cut costs .
  • Guidance maintained with upside: mid‑2026 first gas at 40 TJ/d maintained; management now sees near-term expansion to 50 TJ/d and a pathway to 100 TJ/d within ~12–18 months via incremental compression, subject to approvals and execution .
  • Near-term stock catalysts: SS‑6H IP30 in Q1 CY26, Falcon acquisition vote/close in Q1 CY26, Phase 2 farm-out decision in Q1 CY26, and continued SPCF/SPP commissioning progress .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • FID achieved on the Shenandoah South Pilot Project; all key commercial and stakeholder approvals secured under BUG legislation, enabling appraisal gas sales and avoiding flaring .
  • Drilling program delivered ahead of schedule and below budget: three 10,000‑ft horizontals batch drilled; average spud-to-TD 26.7 days; SS‑6H set a daily record >3,750 ft in the target shale .
  • Funding and strategic partnerships: $56.1M public raise backed by Baker Hughes ($10M), PIPE up to $32M, and preferred services agreements with Baker Hughes plus ongoing alliances with H&P and Liberty Energy to improve well delivery and economics .
    • “Baker... will supply oilfield services and support optimization and efficiency initiatives in Tamboran’s initial development” .

What Went Wrong

  • Coil tubing failure at SS‑4H delayed stimulation sequence; management pivoted to SS‑6H to stay on schedule; service provider to bear costs .
  • Operating cash outflow rose with pilot activity and SPCF build; net loss widened year-over-year as field and financing-related costs increased despite lower exploration expensing (more capitalization) .
  • Internal controls remain a material weakness; remediation underway but not yet effective, posing reporting/process risk until sustained testing demonstrates effectiveness .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.0 $0.0*$0.0
Net Income ($USD Millions)$(6.66) $(10.18)*$(8.18)
Net Loss per Share, Basic & Diluted ($)$(0.458) n/a*$(0.467)
Total Operating Costs and Expenses ($USD Millions)$8.80 $7.12*$8.21
Cash and Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$25.64 $39.44*$39.56
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)$(23.20) (9M) $(6.43)*$(13.80)
Capital Expenditure ($USD Millions)$74.08 (9M) $(24.31)*$(27.49)*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Context and drivers:

  • No revenue recognized; company remains pre-production under successful efforts accounting .
  • Q1 net loss $(8.18)M; operating costs driven by camp mobilization ($1.63M), LNG pre-FEED ($0.19M), accretion of ARO ($0.29M), and G&A, partly offset by capitalized pilot drilling/stimulation and camp recoveries .
  • Operating cash use reflects drilling of SS‑4H/5H/6H, SPCF construction and lease payments; financing inflows post-quarter strengthen liquidity .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
First gas timingMid‑2026Mid‑2026 (maintained in Q4 FY25) Mid‑2026; SPCF/SPP on budget/schedule Maintained
Pilot throughputInitial ops40 TJ/d 40 TJ/d; upside 50 TJ/d; pathway to ~100 TJ/d via compression in ~12–18 months Raised upside
SS‑6H IP30 testQ1 CY26N/AIP30 targeted after completion and soak; flow test in Q1 CY26, weather permitting New specific timing
SPCF progressThrough Oct‑25Construction progressing; approvals obtained 68% complete; within P50 budget/schedule; NT Govt guarantee supports financing Maintained, quantified
SPP progressThrough CY25Expected completion by YE25 60% welded; practical completion expected by YE25 Maintained, quantified
FundingQ4–Q1Seeking SPCF financing $56.1M Public Offer; up to $32M PIPE; pro forma cash/inflows ~$140M including $15M DWE acreage sale; SPCF facility in place Raised
Phase 2 farm-outQ1 CY26Q1 CY26 target Q1 CY26 target reiterated; interest robust Maintained
Falcon acquisitionQ1 CY26Announced Sept-25 Plan to close Q1 CY26 post shareholder votes Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 FY25)Previous Mentions (Q4 FY25)Current Period (Q1 FY26)Trend
Completion design (water/proppant)Soak modeling (21–60 days); aim lower water, local sand; zipper fracs and cost path to ~$16M per well Emphasis on choke management, lower water than Haynesville; drilling tool improvements Target ~2,250 lb/ft, ~55 bbl/ft; adopting SS‑1H intensity; 60-stage SS‑6H program underway Improving clarity
Local sand initiativeIdentified local sand to cut ~$3.5M per well Continued; planning logistics Tracer-tagged comparative stages planned to validate performance Executing pilot
Regulatory/BUG approvalsBUG framework noted; mid‑2026 schedule Consent from Native Title and NT Govt approvals secured First approvals under BUG; appraisal gas sales sanctioned De‑risked
Farm-out processRBC engaged; development-ready phase 2 acreage Confidence in Q1 CY26 conclusion; interest robust Robust multi-party interest; acreage increased to 500k acres Momentum building
SPCF/SPP progressCompressors and pipe arrivals; plan YE25 completion On schedule SPCF 68% complete; SPP 60% welded; YE25 practical completion On-track
Macro demand/East CoastLOI for 26 MMcf/d; East Coast shortfall Maintain domestic-first approach; LNG optionality later East Coast/NT demand robust; JKM ~$11/MMBtu; focus on local supply ahead of LNG Supportive demand

Management Commentary

  • “This quarter marks a significant milestone… we officially sanctioned the Shenandoah South Pilot Project, paving the way for first gas sales… in mid‑2026” (Dick Stoneburner) .
  • “At the end of the quarter, we had approximately $40 million in cash… with near-term cash inflows of $100 million… we are well positioned to fund our pilot project” .
  • “We think… this system can deliver up to 50 million a day… immediately working toward increasing… to 100 million a day” .
  • “We are progressing in-basin sand… we’ll tag stages with tracer… the ideal situation is they all perform relatively the same” .
  • “It’s a robust [farm-out] process… surprised by the quality and the number” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Funding runway: CFO outlined cash build from $39.6M to ~$127.6M on PIPE vote and SPP, with additional SPP/share plan potentially to ~$160M; SPCF debt facility secured; Falcon adds ~$10M spend but overall “well funded” .
  • SS‑4H coil incident: Service provider rig-up error sheared coil; costs borne by provider; shifted stimulation to SS‑6H to maintain schedule .
  • Completion philosophy: Move toward SS‑1H-style intensity with less water/sand given reservoir performance; deliberate choke management and soaking (20–30 days) prior to IP30 .
  • Expansion upside: System can likely deliver 40–50 MMcf/d initially; compression expansion could reach ~100 MMcf/d before long-haul pipeline .
  • Market context: Domestic NT/East Coast gas shortfall persists; JKM ~$11/MMBtu supports returns; priority is local supply before LNG exports .

Estimates Context

MetricQ1 2026Q2 2026
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)$0.0$0.0
Revenue – # of Estimates42
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)n/an/a

Values retrieved from S&P Global. Coverage remains limited given pre‑revenue status; consensus points to $0 revenue through Q2 FY26, and EPS consensus was not available. The company reported Q1 FY26 net loss per share of $(0.467), suggesting estimates may need to reflect ongoing pilot spend until first gas .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution de‑risking: FID, stimulation start, and SPCF/SPP construction reduce path‑to‑first‑gas risk; watch SS‑6H IP30 and YE25 SPP completion as confirmation points .
  • Funding capacity: Post‑quarter equity raises and facility financing provide runway to mid‑2026 commissioning; liquidity steps materially cut financing overhang .
  • Cost trajectory: Batch drilling and local sand validation could improve capital efficiency; monitor tracer results and stage pumping rates for cost-down proof points .
  • Volume upside: Near‑term potential to 50 TJ/d and plan to ~100 TJ/d via compression expansion create optionality ahead of long‑haul pipeline decisions .
  • Farm-out and consolidation: Phase 2 farm-out and Falcon deal are key strategic catalysts for scale and carry; outcomes will shape Phase 2 capital intensity and timing .
  • Macro demand tailwinds: NT/East Coast shortfall and stable JKM support domestic-first monetization; regulatory approvals under BUG framework enable appraisal sales now .
  • Risks: Operational execution (stimulation, flowback), internal controls remediation, regulatory/community processes (ILUA), and wet-season logistics remain watch items .

KPIs

KPIQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026
Wells drilled (10,000‑ft horizontals)Planned (spud in July) 2 reached TD; record horizontal speed segments 3 drilled; ahead of schedule/budget
Avg spud-to-TD (days)Target <25 Best segments imply ~19 achievable 26.7 average
SS‑6H stimulation stagesN/APlanned 60-stage program commenced
SPCF completion (%)Design/approvals underway Progressing; on track 68% complete; P50 budget/schedule
SPP welded (%)Pipe inbound On track 60% welded; YE25 practical completion
Cash balance ($USD M)$25.6 $39.4*$39.6
Near-term inflows ($USD M)$26 (receivables incl. PIPE/DWE) N/A~$100 (Public Offer, PIPE, DWE sale)

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown: Not applicable (pre‑revenue) .

Disclosures of non‑GAAP: None presented; company is pre‑revenue and reports under US GAAP successful efforts method .