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Tamboran Resources Corp (TBN)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Pre-revenue operator delivered operational progress in Q3 FY25: completed 35‑stage SS‑2H ST1 stimulation, initiated a 90‑day flow test after a 62‑day “soak,” and reinforced funding through a US$70.4M raise, lifting pro forma cash to US$96.0M .
  • First gas from the ~40 MMcf/d gross Shenandoah South (SS) Pilot remains on track for mid‑2026; compression and pipeline long‑lead items were delivered to Australia, and construction is slated to start after FID in mid‑2025 .
  • Guidance cadence tightened: SS‑2H ST1 IP30 now planned for June (from April in prior quarter), IP90 by August; drilling of SS‑4H/5H/6H targeted for <25 days spud‑to‑TD each in 2H 2025 to drive cost efficiencies .
  • Strategic positioning advanced: LOI signed with Arafura Rare Earths for 18–26 MMcf/d potential demand, and RBC engaged to lead farm‑out of ~400k acres in the Phase 2 Development Area; APA progressing pipeline licensing and construction plans .
  • EPS modestly beat S&P Global consensus; revenue remains nil as the company is pre‑revenue, with management reiterating no material revenue expected until 2026 . See Estimates Context below.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • SS‑2H ST1 stimulation completed across 35 stages over 5,483 ft with record Beetaloo proppant intensity (~2,706 lb/ft); flow test commenced post a 62‑day soak as part of an optimized flowback strategy .
  • Midstream readiness improved: Sturt Plateau Pipeline pipe delivered into Darwin and compressor units arrived in Brisbane, supporting schedule integrity for mid‑2026 first gas .
  • Funding strength: US$55.4M PIPE and US$15M acreage sale raised ~US$70.4M, fully funding drilling/completions of the remaining three SS wells; pro forma cash ~US$96.0M .
  • Management quote: “We are fully funded to complete the drilling of three follow-up pilot wells… First Gas remains on track… by the middle part of 2026” — Joel Riddle, CEO .

What Went Wrong

  • Timing slippage on IP30 disclosure: SS‑2H ST1 IP30 moved to June from prior guidance of April; SS‑3H IP30 shifted to mid‑2025 after precautionary casing reinforcement .
  • Continued negative cash flow and net losses typical of pre‑revenue stage, with CFO and net income remaining negative in Q3 FY25 .
  • Operational risk reminders: company reiterates early‑stage development and “no material revenue expected until 2026,” highlighting execution, permitting, and infrastructure risks inherent in the plan .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2025 (Mar 31, 2025)Q4 2025 (Jun 30, 2025)Q1 2026 (Sep 30, 2025)
Revenue ($USD Millions)n/a (pre‑revenue) n/a (pre‑revenue) n/a (pre‑revenue)
Net Income ($USD Millions)-$6.66 -$10.18*-$8.18
Diluted EPS – Continuing Ops ($USD)-$0.002299 -$0.003273 -$0.002334*
Cash and Equivalents ($USD Millions)$25.64 $39.44 $39.56
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)-$14.30 -$6.43*-$13.80
Capital Expenditure ($USD Millions)-$36.93*-$24.31*-$27.49*
Total Debt ($USD Millions)$26.87 $26.40*$25.61

Notes: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Comparison vs Estimates (S&P Global):

MetricQ3 2025 ConsensusQ3 2025 Actual
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)-0.001603-0.001559
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)0.00n/a (pre‑revenue)
Primary EPS – # of Estimates1—
Revenue – # of Estimates3—

Notes: Values retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and Operational Metrics:

KPIQ1 FY25 (Sep 2024)Q2 FY25 (Dec 2024)Q3 FY25 (Mar 2025)
SS‑2H ST1 stimulation stages (#)—35 35 (completed)
Avg proppant intensity (lb/ft)—~2,706 ~2,706
Soak period (days)21 (SS‑1H reference) —62 (SS‑2H ST1)
SS‑3H lateral length (ft)—10,000 (drilled) Planned completion in campaign
SS‑3H spud‑to‑TD (days)—25 —
Target spud‑to‑TD for SS‑4H/5H/6H (days)——<25
IP30 timing (SS‑2H ST1)Guide: 1Q25 April 2025 June 2025
IP90 timing (SS‑2H ST1)——August 2025
First gas timing (Pilot)1H 2026 1H 2026 Mid‑2026
Pro forma cash ($USD Millions)~$81.6 adj. cash $59.4 cash $96.0 pro forma post‑raise
Pipeline & compression LLIsOrdered/planned Binding APA agreements Delivered (pipe/compressor)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
SS‑2H ST1 IP30 disclosure2Q 2025April 2025 June 2025 Lowered (timing delay)
SS‑2H ST1 IP90 disclosure3Q 2025—August 2025 New
SS‑4H/5H/6H drilling cycle2H 2025Achieved 25 days on SS‑3H Target <25 days per well Raised (efficiency target)
First gas (SS Pilot)Mid‑20261H 2026 Mid‑2026 Maintained (refined timing)
SS Pilot gross throughputStart‑up~40 MMcf/d ~40 MMcf/d Maintained
Phase 1 expansion potential2026–2027—75–90 MMcf/d potential; LOI with ARU for 18–26 MMcf/d New/Raised
Farm‑out (Phase 2)2H 2025Exploring options RBC engaged; process commencing post IP30 Raised (formal process)
Midstream constructionPost‑FIDBinding APA; approvals progressing Construction start 2H 2025; assets delivered Raised (schedule specificity)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q‑2 and Q‑1)Current Period (Q3 FY25)Trend
Drilling efficiency & costSS‑3H drilled in 25 days; optimized mud/system Target <25 days for SS‑4H/5H/6H; batch drilling, improved tools/NPT reduction Improving
Completion design & local sandLiberty 80k HHP; US‑style frac; local sand plan Apply SS‑2H ST1 learnings; >5 stages/day zipper fracking; local sand to cut ~$3.5M/well Improving
Flowback “soak” strategySS‑1H 21‑day soak benefits SS‑2H ST1 62‑day soak informed by CoreLab; target IP30/IP90 Deepening understanding
Midstream readinessBinding APA pipeline; SPCF EPCM awarded Pipe/compressor delivered; construction planned 2H 2025 Advancing
Commercial off‑takeGSA with NT Govt ~40 MMcf/d LOI with Arafura 18–26 MMcf/d for 10 years; helium LOI with Linde Expanding
Farm‑out strategyExploring Phase 2/3 partnerships RBC engaged; formal Phase 2 farm‑out post IP30 Formalized
Data center opportunityNT data centers scope introduced Still engaged; ~200 MMcf/d for ~1 GW discussed Exploring
Regulatory/political backdropApprovals progressing; SPCF permitting Federal Labor majority continuity; NT coordinator to accelerate approvals Supportive tone

Management Commentary

  • “We are fully funded to complete the drilling of three follow‑up pilot wells… First Gas remains on track to deliver initial 40 million cubic feet a day… by the middle part of 2026.” — Joel Riddle, CEO .
  • “We plan to report IP30 flow test results in June… and will be reporting an IP90… by the end of August.” — Joel Riddle .
  • “Local sand solution… can drop [sand cost] from ~$US4M to about ~$US0.5M, ~US$3.5M per well savings.” — Joel Riddle .
  • “RBC Capital Markets… has initiated [the Phase 2] farm‑out process.” — Joel Riddle .
  • “Pipe delivered into Darwin… compressors delivered into Brisbane… [SPCF] on track to deliver first gas in mid‑2026.” — Company materials .

Q&A Highlights

  • Well cost trajectory: Current AFE ~US$28M per well; long‑term target ~US$16M via multi‑well efficiencies, local sand, higher stage/day throughput, and improved ROP/directional tools .
  • Supply chain/regulatory: Long leads largely secured; APA pipeline steel on schedule; Australia insulated from trade frictions; confidence in mid‑2026 timing .
  • Funding rationale: Opportunistic PIPE anchored by Formentera and top shareholders; not a read‑through on productivity; positions company fully funded into well tests and pilot execution .
  • Phase 2 scale: ~160k “best” acres could support ~20 Tcf, enabling ~2 Bcf/d for ~20 years; checkerboard increases basin activity and cost deflation via multi‑operator dynamics .
  • Soak optimization: CoreLab modeling points to ~60‑day optimal soak in highly desiccated Mid‑Velkerri shale; SS‑2H ST1 soaked 62 days to calibrate type curve .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 FY25 EPS modestly beat S&P Global consensus: actual −$0.001559 vs consensus −$0.001603 (pre‑revenue stage, low estimate count) — modest positive surprise likely to focus investor attention on June IP30 and August IP90 flow results. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Revenue consensus was $0.00; company reiterated no material revenue until 2026, consistent with pre‑revenue status . Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near‑term catalysts: SS‑2H ST1 IP30 (June) and IP90 (August) will inform productivity/type curve and drive sentiment; watch for Phase 2 farm‑out updates post IP30 .
  • Execution focus: Batch drilling and zipper fracs targeting <25‑day cycles per well should drive unit cost down; local sand savings (~US$3.5M/well) are material .
  • Schedule integrity: Midstream long‑leads delivered; APA licensing advancing; construction slated for 2H 2025 supports mid‑2026 first gas timeline .
  • Commercial optionality: LOIs (Arafura gas, Linde helium) broaden demand/monetization pathways beyond initial NT GSA; Phase 1 expansion could lift throughput to 75–90 MMcf/d .
  • Funding runway: Pro forma cash of ~US$96M post PIPE/acreage sale fully funds remaining pilot wells; watch SPCF financing terms for remaining midstream capital .
  • Basin dynamics: Checkerboard fosters multi‑operator competition/efficiency gains; Phase 2 positioning targets East Coast shortfall by 2029–2030 .
  • Trading lens: Any material outperformance on IP30/IP90 or firmed farm‑out terms could re‑rate risk profile; delays to flow testing or midstream milestones would be viewed negatively given pre‑revenue status .

Sources: Q3 FY25 8‑K press release and exhibits ; Q3 FY25 earnings call transcript ; Prior quarters’ 8‑Ks – –. Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.