Texas Capital Bancshares - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Executive Summary

• Q1 2025 delivered solid core profitability with EPS of $0.92, ROAA of 0.61%, and NIM expanding 26 bps QoQ to 3.19% on lower funding costs and higher loan yields; tangible book value per share rose to a record $67.97.
• Management raised 2025 revenue guidance to the high end, now “low double‑digit % growth,” maintained high single‑digit % non‑interest expense growth, provision of 30–35 bps (ex‑mortgage finance), and reiterated a 1.10% quarterly ROAA target in 2H25; tax rate ~25% and CET1 >11% maintained.
• Street scorecard: modest misses on revenue and EPS versus S&P Global consensus as investment banking fees were delayed amid macro/political uncertainty (not canceled), while NII outperformed on deposit beta progress; treasury product fees rose 22% YoY to a record, and core non‑interest‑bearing deposits (ex‑mortgage finance) grew 7% QoQ.
• Credit remained controlled: NCOs 0.18%, ACL/loans 1.48% (1.85% ex‑mortgage finance), NPAs fell QoQ; criticized loans rose modestly QoQ but improved YoY; CET1 11.6% and total capital 15.6% keep strategic optionality (buybacks, growth, hedging) intact.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • NIM and NII momentum: NIM rose to 3.19% (+26 bps QoQ) as interest‑bearing deposit costs fell to 3.97% and loan yields edged higher; NII increased to $236.0mm (+$6.4mm QoQ).
  • Core deposits and treasury fees: Non‑interest‑bearing deposits ex‑mortgage finance grew 7% QoQ; treasury product fees rose 22% YoY to a record. “Earning the right to be our clients’ primary operating bank remains the foundation…,” noted the CEO.
  • Guidance upshift and balance sheet strength: Revenue guidance raised to low double‑digit growth; CET1 11.6% and TCE/TA ~10% underpin flexibility (including buybacks of ~396k shares for $31mm at ~$78.25).

• What Went Wrong

  • Fee headwinds from uncertainty: Non‑interest income fell $9.6mm QoQ on lower investment banking/advisory fees; management cited “mid‑ to late‑quarter capital markets uncertainty” that delayed (not canceled) mandates.
  • Seasonal and talent‑build expense ramp: Non‑interest expense rose 18% QoQ on seasonal payroll resets and new hires in fee areas of focus, lifting the adjusted efficiency ratio to 72.4%.
  • Mixed criticized loans trend: Criticized loans/loans increased to 3.41% (from 3.18% in Q4), though down YoY; management is monitoring tariff‑sensitive sectors (infrastructure, transportation, logistics, manufacturing; low‑end consumer exposure).

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Hello everyone and welcome to the Texas Capital Bancshares Q1 2025 earnings call. My name is Ezra and I will be your coordinator today. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. I will now hand over to Jocelyn Kukulka, Head of Investor Relations, to begin. Please go ahead.

Jocelyn Kukulka (Managing Director)

Good morning and thank you for joining us for TCBI's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. I'm Jocelyn Kukulka, Head of Investor Relations. Before we begin, please be aware this call will include forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectation of future results or events. Forward-looking statements are subject to both known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements. Our forward-looking statements are as of the date of this call, and we do not assume any obligation to update or revise them. Statements made on this call should be considered together with the cautionary statements and other information contained in today's earnings release, our most recent annual report on Form 10-K, and subsequent filings with the SEC.

We will refer to slides during today's presentation, which can be found along with the press release in the Investor Relations section of our website at texascapital.com. Our speakers for the call today are Rob Holmes, Chairman, President, and CEO, and Matt Scurlock, CFO. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, our operator will open the call for Q&A. Now I'll turn the call over to Rob for opening remarks.

Rob Holmes (Chairman, President and CEO)

Thank you for joining us today. This quarter's results, continued evidence, are clearly differentiated strategy and operating model. Contributions from across the firm enabled another quarter of strong financial progress, with year-over-year revenue growth of 9%, adjusted pre-provision net revenue growth of 21%, and tangible book value per share growth of 11%, which ended the quarter at a record high for the firm. The company also maintained its peer-leading capital levels, with tangible common equity to tangible assets of 10%, while continuing to effectively support clients' growth objectives during the first quarter of the year. Earning the right to be our client's primary operating bank remains the foundation of our transformation, with sustained success again displayed by another quarter of peer-leading growth in treasury product fees, which increased 22% year-over-year to a record high for the firm.

Non-interest-bearing deposits, excluding mortgage finance, grew 7%, marking the firm's largest quarterly increase since 2021 and are up 11% since the first quarter of last year. Consistently increasing client relevance through both breadth of services and quality of advice continues to deliver a longer duration, less rate-sensitive deposit base. Further evidenced this quarter by our ability to effectively reprice down our liabilities, supporting a 26 basis points increase in late quarter net interest margin and 10% increase in year-over-year quarterly net interest income. Looking ahead, we remain confident in our ability to deliver risk-adjusted returns consistent with our published targets. Deliberate actions over the last four years purposefully positioned our firm to operate through any market or rate cycle with our financially resilient balance sheet, tailored coverage model, and breadth of products and services, enabling us to uniquely serve clients as they navigate this period of elevated macroeconomic uncertainty.

Recent tariff actions and resulting volatility in the financial markets could manifest in changes to client confidence affecting hiring, capital investment, and M&A. To date, institutional debt markets are still functioning, albeit at higher costs. Banks are still aggressively competing for high-quality credits, and flows in our institutional sales and trading desk continue to grow in a consistent manner. Our perspectives are influenced by unique positioning as the only full-service firm headquartered in Texas, with significant connectivity to small businesses through our top five SBA 7(a) lending program, our loan syndications team, which has reached as high as the number eight lead arranger in league tables for middle market loan transactions in the country, our extensive reach into institutional credit markets through more than $25 billion of leveraged finance transactions we facilitated last year, and our institutional sales and trading business, which now transacts with over 1,000 active accounts.

You have often heard me say that we regularly prepare for a range of economic or geopolitical outcomes beyond the base case or consensus view. Strategically, that means operating without balance sheet concentrations, deploying products and services that allow us to comprehensively serve clients, and carrying liquidity, capital, and reserve levels that enable confidence and flexibility across a range of economic scenarios. We often refer to that as operating with a balance sheet and business model that is resilient to market and rate cycles. It is because of our deliberate preparation that we are confident about the future and expect to continue to onboard and serve the best clients in our markets. Thank you for your continued interest in and support of our firm. I'll turn it over to Matt to discuss the financial results.

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

Thanks, Rob. Good morning. Starting on slide five, first quarter total revenue increased $24.1 million, or 9%, relative to Q1 of last year, supported by 10% growth in net interest income and 8% growth in fee-based revenue. Late quarter total revenue declined by $3.2 million, or 1%, for the quarter, as a $6.4 million increase in net interest income was offset by a decline in fee revenue as mid to late quarter capital markets uncertainty limited pull-through of a strong and building investment banking pipeline. Total non-interest expense increased $30.9 million quarter over quarter due to $14 million of expected seasonal payroll and compensation expenses, resetting annual variable compensation accruals and onboarding of previously discussed talent and fee income areas of focus, particularly investment banking.

Taken together, year-over-year pre-provision net revenue increased 21%, or $13.5 million on an adjusted basis, to $77.5 million, which should, as expected, represent the low point for the year. This quarter's provision expense of $17 million resulted from $422 million of growth in gross LHI, excluding mortgage finance, $10 million of net charge-offs against previously identified problem credits, and our continued view of the uncertain macroeconomic environment, which remains decidedly more conservative than consensus expectations. The firm's allowance for credit loss increased $7.2 million to $332 million, finishing the quarter at 1.85% of LHI when excluding the impact of mortgage finance allowance and loan balances. Net income to common was $42.7 million, an increase of 44% compared to adjusted net income to common in Q1 of last year.

This continued financial progress, coupled with a consistent multi-year buyback approach, contributed to a 48% increase in quarterly earnings per share compared to adjusted earnings per share from a year ago. The firm continues to operate from a position of financial strength, with balance sheet metrics remaining exceptionally strong. Ending period cash and securities comprise 27% of total assets, as the firm continues to onboard and expand client deposit relationships while supporting their broad needs, including access to credit. These consistent client acquisition trends are increasingly resulting in risk-appropriate portfolio expansion, with ending period gross LHI balances, excluding mortgage finance, growing $422 million, or 2%, late quarter. Average commercial loan balances increased 4%, or $401 million, during the quarter, with broad contributions across areas of industry and geographic coverage. Ending period balances now up approximately $1 billion, or 10%, year over year.

Real estate loans also increased during the quarter, up $208 million, and were flat to first quarter 2024 levels, as new volume resulting from our consistent market-facing posture outpaced potential payoffs that could result should rates move lower. As anticipated, average mortgage finance loans decreased 27% late quarter to $4 billion, as quarterly seasonal home buying activity hit its annual low in Q1. Given ongoing rate volatility, we remain cautious on our mortgage outlook for the remainder of 2025, with full-year expectations for a 10% increase in average balances predicated on a $1.9 trillion origination market. Late quarter deposit growth of $814 million, or 3%, was driven predominantly by our continued ability to onboard and expand core operating relationships while serving the entirety of our clients' cash management needs.

This was the third consecutive quarter of growth in non-interest-bearing deposits, excluding mortgage finance, which increased $250 million, or 7%, late quarter, to finish at their highest level since Q2 of 2023. Clients' interest-bearing deposit balances also continued to expand and are now up approximately $2.9 billion, or 19%, year over year. Our sustained success winning high-quality deposit relationships continues to enable maintenance of decade-low levels of broker deposits and a select reduction of higher-cost deposits we were unable to earn an adequate return on the aggregate relationship. This is in part observed in the ratio of average mortgage finance deposits to average mortgage finance loans, which improved to 113% this quarter, down significantly from 148% in Q1 of last year. We would expect this ratio to trend below 100% as loan volumes grow in the seasonally stronger second and third quarter.

Our modeled earnings at risk were relatively flat quarter over quarter, with current and prospective balance sheet positioning continuing to reflect a business model that is intentionally more resilient to changes in interest rates. Improvements in rate fall earnings sensitivities were driven by adjustments in down rate deposit betas to better align with recent experience and the addition of $300 million in forward-starting receive-fixed swaps that will become active in Q3. Given the volume of maturing swaps, we do anticipate future interest rate derivative or securities actions over the course of 2025, augmenting potential rate fall earnings generation at materially better terms than available during our deliberate pause through the mid-part of last year.

The total allowance for credit loss, including off-balance sheet reserves, increased $7 million on a late quarter basis to $332 million, up $28 million year over year, which, when excluding the impact of mortgage finance allowance and loan balances, is 1.85% of total LHI, two basis points below our high since adopting CECL in 2020. Despite a modest increase in late quarter special mention loans, criticized loans decreased $96 million, or 11%, year over year, supported by stable substandard loan balances and an $8.5 million, or 8%, decline in year-over-year non-performing assets. We remain highly focused on proactively managing credit risk across a range of both macroeconomic and portfolio-specific scenarios, including those associated with the recent trade policy-induced market volatility, with our frequently discussed through-cycle approach centered on quality client selection, excess capital and liquidity, and consistently applied reserving methodology.

Specifically, the firm has been focused on the effects of possible tariffs since late summer 2024, as the presidential campaigns were moving towards the November election, with initial emphasis on Canada, Mexico, and China. While too early to know the precise impacts of the April 2nd trade announcements, we remain confident in our routines to monitor and manage the portfolio while effectively supporting clients as they look to navigate considerable economic uncertainty. Consistent with prior quarters, capital levels remain at or near the top of the industry. Total regulatory capital remains exceptionally strong relative to both peer group and our internally assessed risk profile. CET1 finished the quarter at 11.63%, a 25 basis point increase from prior quarter, supported by continued strong capital generation coupled with effective implementation of the enhanced credit structures discussed last quarter for 15% of our mortgage finance level portfolio.

Our continued client dialogue suggests at least 30% of Q2 ending mortgage finance balances will qualify for the improved structure and associated reduction in risk-weighted assets. We continue to deploy the capital base in a disciplined and analytically rigorous manner focused on driving long-term shareholder value. During the first quarter, we purchased approximately 396,000 shares, or 0.86% of prior quarter shares outstanding, for a total of $31 million at a weighted average price of $78.25 per share, or 117% of prior month tangible book value per share. Turning to our full-year outlook, despite observed macroeconomic uncertainty, we are raising our revenue guidance to low double-digit % growth. The higher end of our previously disclosed range is our ability to effectively serve clients across an increasingly broad platform should continue to differentiate in the market while providing revenue resilience across a wide range of potential scenarios.

We are maintaining our non-interest expense guidance of high single-digit % growth, which includes resumed progress associated with fee-based initiatives in the second half of the year. The full-year provision expense outlook remains 30-35 basis points of loans held for investment, excluding mortgage finance, which should enable the preservation of industry-leading coverage levels while effectively supporting our clients' growth needs. Taken together, this outlook suggests continued earnings momentum and achievement of quarterly 1.1% ROAA in the second half of the year. Operator, we'd now like to open up the call for questions. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. Please ensure your device is unmuted locally. If you change your mind or your question has already been answered, please press star followed by two. Our first question comes from Woody Lay with KBW. Woody, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Woody Lay (VP)

Hey, good morning, guys.

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

Good morning.

Woody Lay (VP)

Hey, Woody. Wanted to start on the revenue guide and just wanted to better understand the motivation to now targeting the higher end of the range. Is that really being driven by NII? I mean, it was a nice NIM increase in the quarter, solid growth. Is that what is driving the higher revenue guide?

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

Yeah, you got it, Woody. We noted on the first quarter call that we could move to the higher end of the revenue guide if we saw interest-bearing deposit betas get to 60 prior to the mid-part of the year, ultimately go higher than 60 if we saw LHI, excluding mortgage finance, deliver comparable loan growth to last year, and if we suspected that average mortgage finance volumes could be up 10% for the full year. Those were the general components that we outlined that would move us to the higher end. Those are obviously all things that have either already transpired or that the current outlook suggests will.

There is no question that that earned net interest income improvement that you cited could potentially be partially offset by decreases in fees, but as noted in both my comments as well as Rob's, the majority of the transactions in our investment banking pipeline haven't been canceled. They've just been delayed. If we get to the second half of the year and those transactions do start to fall away or push into 2025, you'll see us start to adjust down the expense outlook to reflect lower fee-based incentives. At this point, feel pretty confident in the ability to deliver double-digit growth and revenue across a pretty wide range of economic and interest rate outlooks.

Woody Lay (VP)

Got it. Yeah, that's great to hear. Maybe shifting over to loan growth in the pipeline. It was a really strong growth quarter in the first quarter. How's the pipeline shaping up into the second quarter? Are you seeing the macro uncertainty impact clients' demand for loans at this point?

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

Yeah, Woody, I'd note that along with the consistently growing and improving deposit franchise, we do continue to fill clients' capital needs through a variety of channels, which includes access to bank debt. What are now pretty sustained client acquisition trends coupled with multiple quarters of slowing capital recycling. That's what supported the $422 million, or 10% annualized increase in LHI this quarter. There are some risks to that pace continuing, notably some of the previously discussed potential for accelerated payoffs in CRE, which should move slightly higher in Q2. The outlook for onboarding new C&I relationships at this point is still quite strong.

Woody Lay (VP)

Got it. Last for me, I wanted to touch on the buyback. It was great to see you all active again in the first quarter. Obviously, with the market pullback, the stock is a little bit cheaper today. How are you thinking about forward buybacks from here?

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

Yeah, I'd say that we're pretty boring on this topic. There's no change in capital priorities. We rely on the exact same highly disciplined approach to allocation that you've seen us employ since Rob arrived. With times like this, precisely why we choose to carry excess capital. To your point, the stock's clearly trading below levels where we've previously been comfortable buying back shares. Alongside opportunities for new client acquisition, it's like we've got multiple compelling options for near-term capital deployment. I'd call out that further supporting the optionality is a success that we've had implementing the enhanced credit structures for the mortgage finance clients. We noted in the prepared remarks that as of March 31, we had $715 million, or 15%, of clients that had moved into that structure, which reduced their risk weighting from 100% to 26%, resulting in a 21 basis point increase in regulatory capital.

Based on current client interaction, we suspect we can get that number to 30% of ending period Q2 warehouse balances in the structure. With near 10% tangible common equity, a lot of new client acquisition, and building regulatory capital, we've got a lot of options in terms of capital deployment.

Woody Lay (VP)

Yep. All right. Thanks for taking my questions.

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

You bet.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ben Gerlinger with Citi. Ben, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Ben Gerlinger (VP of Equity Research)

Hey, good morning. When you guys—I think you said the commentary for clients, especially the investment banking, isn't that things are canceled, that they've been pushed. Is there something that they're looking for, either economically or political clarity, that they're citing most? I'm just trying to think. The rate of change, it seems like every bank has said client activity slowed a little bit since liberation day. All is equal. You're still seeing a healthy economy. I'm just kind of curious, is there any sticking points specifically because you do have this kind of newer budding investment bank that's seeing success? I'm just kind of trying to look—what are they looking for?

Rob Holmes (Chairman, President and CEO)

They're just looking for certainty. It's very, very hard to project financial forecasts in a world of as great uncertainties as we have today. Uncertainty is the great killer of all deals. You have, like we said, the debt markets are functioning, but if you don't have to go in periods such as this, then you don't go. The only people going are people that have to. They'll do it at wider spreads than maybe necessary or previously they could have achieved before what you call liberation day. I think the uncertainty index that people keep referring to is very, very real. We had low single-digit millions of investment banking fees fall away that won't come back. The rest of the pipeline that suggested what was pushed out. It's really hard for a CEO or a board to do something strategic in an environment such as this.

It's also not a great time to refinance or plan capital investment or build your inventories until you know what the economic environment's going to be going forward.

Ben Gerlinger (VP of Equity Research)

Gotcha. That's helpful.

Rob Holmes (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah, a long way of saying it's a lot of factors. Sorry.

Ben Gerlinger (VP of Equity Research)

Right. No, no, no. I understand. I was just more so thinking—you answered it well, Rob. I appreciate that. I was just more so thinking just kind of anything specific. It is a tough environment for certainty, not lost on me. When you look at loan yields and securities yields, they are up linked quarter. I mean, does this trend continue? I just wanted to double-check on everything that you guys have done. Is there anything idiosyncratic within this quarter that would have inflated it more than normal?

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

You had the full quarter impact then of the mortgage finance deposit repricing that occurred in the back end of last year. There is a couple of months delay before that ultimately shows up in loan yields. Those costs are split about 60% attributed to the mortgage warehouse and about 40% to commercial loans to mortgage companies. Aggregate yields, as well as spread on new origination, are roughly the same. On the securities portfolio, we have got around $120 million a quarter of cash flows. We are reinvesting somewhere around 5.3%. That obviously changes every single day. You can expect to see us continue to do that.

Ben Gerlinger (VP of Equity Research)

Gotcha. Okay. That's helpful. I appreciate it, guys.

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

You bet.

Rob Holmes (Chairman, President and CEO)

You bet.

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

Maybe the one other thing I would say then is clearly the guide relies on implied forwards for Fed cuts, which at the time of compilation included two cuts in the year, one in June, one in October. Anticipated NII is also impacted by that.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Brett Rabatin with Hovde Group. Brett, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Brett Rabatin (Managing Director of Head of Equity Research)

Hey, good morning. Wanted to ask about mortgage finance. And the mortgage finance business is obviously competitive, but it seems like you guys might have taken some share this quarter. Any thoughts on market share gains this quarter and just what you're trying to get with that business relative to maybe the top five in the space?

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

Thanks, Brett. We landed full year—I'm sorry, full quarter average balances right on top of the guide. We got into $4 billion. We landed right on $4 billion. We were higher on ending period balances, which was the impact of rates moving down and causing it in February. There is a 40-day or so lag before you see the reduction in mortgage rates ultimately show up as warehouse balances. We still sit around 5% total market share, which is where we anticipate staying. The guide suggests a $1.9 trillion origination market, which is predicated on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages between 6% and 7%. If we see that, then we expect about a 10% increase in full-year average balances. Thinking about Q2, we expect around $5.2 billion of average balances. We noted in the commentary continued reduction in mortgage finance deposits, which is quite deliberate.

You should see that self-funding ratio move from 113% to somewhere closer to 95% in the second quarter. The last comment I'd make on that is, although it's steady market share, we continue to do more with those clients. Our ability to effectively help them hedge their portfolios, help them securitize, help provide leverage for other portions of their wallet are things we've worked quite hard on over the last few years. It's not solely a warehouse offering. It's a holistic offering to mortgage finance clients that generates a much higher return on equity than we've had historically.

Rob Holmes (Chairman, President and CEO)

I would just emphasize the last part of Matt's comments. We are not focused at all on market share in mortgage warehouse. The mortgage warehouse balances are a result of our clients' needs that we were focused on in that space. We are focused on the very best clients in the mortgage origination space. If that's their need, that's the result in the warehouse. I think you could further probably project that or assume that there will be a time that if you do not convert to the SPE structure in the warehouse, you may not be a client of the firm because that's where we are going because of the better capital treatment and all the different things that we do with those clients. It is more of a vertical than a warehouse.

Brett Rabatin (Managing Director of Head of Equity Research)

Okay. That's great color on that. You obviously changed the revenue guidance to be more optimistic on NII, and you took away the fee income guidance of $270 million for the year. If you were to think about the pipeline for investment banking from here, has it changed relative to previously, or is it just the uncertainty that's kind of driving the near-term quarter lower?

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

Yeah, Bro.

Rob Holmes (Chairman, President and CEO)

I would just say it's growing. It's granular. It's been pushed back. It's changing in a constructive way, not a different way. To the question earlier, just the uncertainty, it's really, really hard to transact at this moment.

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

The only thing I'd add, Brett, just to emphasize the notion that it's much more heavily weighted now to the back half of the year is our outlook for Q2 is $25 million-$30 million of investment banking fees. The number of transactions in the pipeline throughout the point continues to increase. The delay is largely associated with awarded mandates and M&A and cap markets that folks have just put on pause. There is a very slight reduction in the overall fee outlook for the year, but it is more heavily weighted now to the third and fourth quarter.

Rob Holmes (Chairman, President and CEO)

Which is no different than the other banks reporting so far.

Brett Rabatin (Managing Director of Head of Equity Research)

Yep. Okay. Great. Appreciate all the color, guys.

Rob Holmes (Chairman, President and CEO)

You bet.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Michael Rose with Raymond James. Michael, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Michael Rose (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just wanted to see if I could get a little color on the increase in special mention loans this quarter. To the extent that you can, what are some of the industry sectors that you'd be more worried about in your markets as it relates to tariffs? Thanks.

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

Happy to address that, Michael. Rob re-emphasized in his opening remarks that we regularly prepare for a range of economic or geopolitical outcomes that are considerably more stressful than a consensus view. As you know, those scenarios are directly connected to current and prospective balance sheet positioning. We also noted that we entered the period, in our view, well-equipped to serve clients across a range of potential economic outcomes and that we began specific preparations for changes in global trade policy late in the summer with a particular focus on implications for changes in policy with Mexico, China, and Canada. The current assessment indicates areas worthy of heightened monitoring are infrastructure, transportation, logistics, as well as just general manufacturing within CNI.

We also remain focused on commercial clients that serve the low end of the consumer markets where you could see increases in prices put additional stress on those consumers. I'd say importantly, none of those segments on their own comprise more than 1% to 2% of the overall loan portfolio. The last point I'd make on credit is that our multi-year reserve build has relied on a set of economic assumptions materially more conservative than a consensus outlook, which alongside our observed performance in the portfolio suggests the full-year outlook still is 30-35 basis points of provision relative to LHI, excluding mortgage finance.

Michael Rose (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Very helpful. I appreciate the color. Just to switch some gears to fees, just on the Treasury solutions, you noted that kind of a record quarter for the third quarter in a row. Can you just give some color on the outlook there and why the growth's been so strong? Just separately on private wealth, it does say in the slide deck that you kind of anticipate improved kind of penetration as the year goes on. Just some color in those two areas would be helpful. Thanks.

Rob Holmes (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah, Michael. What I would say about Treasury, and if this is redundant, apologize. It is up 22% year over year. That is all products and services. Cash payments is up 11%. That does not include FX or merchant or corporate card. It is just the payments and receivables of our clients, if you will. That is really, really strong. That business grows GDP or less for most banks. This is eight straight quarters of three times market rate of growth. There is continued momentum, and it is very simple. It is in our DNA now. Our bankers do not talk about deposits. They do not talk about they do not go talk to their clients about, "Can we make you a loan?" or, "Can you give us a deposit?" We go talk to our clients about solutions.

It could come in any form of debt: private credit, bank debt, institutional debt, what have you, equity or the like, converts, etc. When you go talk to your clients about solutions, you add more value. You're more likely to become their primary bank. That comes with operating accounts. You see the cash fees go up like they did. I would venture to say that we have the only institutional sales and trading floor in America that sells Treasury services. We all know that's the health of the bank. We are astute on the products and services in that space. We add value to our clients, reducing working capital and improving their operations and also making it safer and de-risking. It's easier. We developed through our own technology platform, an onboarding platform called Initio that we talked about in the past.

It was easier to onboard operating accounts here when clients onboard an incremental account. They choose us other than a secondary or third bank because it's more simple. If you go talk to our clients, they feel very safe and sound with our capital and our equity to give us all their primary operating business. I would say it's because it's in our DNA. I hope I explained that correctly. On the Treasury side and on the wealth side, we're behind in wealth. Okay? It was hard for us to go all in on wealth. We got a lot better. We have really good people. We have really good investors. We have a great go-to-market strategy. We have great clients. They were burdened with a lesser platform.

That platform was put in place fourth quarter of last year for new clients, kind of the first quarter of this year for current clients. That migration will go through the back half of this year, migrating our legacy clients onto the new platform. What I mean by that, it's the digital journey of our wealth clients. Now they have a digital journey of their everyday operating accounts, if you will, with their investments and with their money transfer, etc., that you'll see at a money center bank. It's not an inferior client journey anymore. Now that we have an on par, better client journey than most banks with really good investors and really good performance and talented advisors, we expect to make real progress in the wealth business moving forward. We can get totally behind it.

Michael Rose (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Thanks, guys. I appreciate the color and candor. I'll step back.

Rob Holmes (Chairman, President and CEO)

Thanks, Michael.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Anthony Elian with JPMorgan. Anthony, your line is now open.

Anthony Elian (Equity Research)

Hi everyone. Matt, you mentioned the prepared remarks, the anticipated future rate derivative or securities actions you plan to make sometime this year to potentially offset falling rates. Can you just provide a bit more color on this and the timing of it and if it's included in your revenue outlook as well?

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

It is included in the revenue outlook, Tony. We added $300 million of two-year forward starting receive fixed swaps this quarter. That obviously impacts the 12-month IRR sensitivities. What also impacts that sensitivity is being more effective in repricing down our liabilities. The sensitivities were previously modeled at a 60% interest rate deposit beta. We moved that up to 70%, which we expect to hit in the mid part of the year. We've got about $500 million of prime swaps that mature in Q2 and then $1.5 billion of SOFR swaps that mature in the third quarter. In the outlook, we expect to try to manage our balance sheet duration to a similar position to where we are today. You also see us selectively, as I mentioned earlier, add to the securities portfolio.

We purchased about $200 million this quarter, around 5.3 or 5.4. We expect to continue to manage that portfolio in a similar way.

Anthony Elian (Equity Research)

Thank you. On the enhanced credit structures you first outlined last quarter and the benefits to RWA, you've implemented, I think you said, 15% on the mortgage finance loan portfolio, and then that could be at least 30%. Is the timing of that in the second quarter, or is that more of a second half of year event when you'd expect to be implemented on the 30%? Thank you.

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

Yeah, we would expect that 30% of ending period balances in Q2 or in Q2 are in the structure. Just to reiterate it, the risk weighting for those clients moved from 100% to 26%. The 15% already in has created 21 basis points of regulatory capital.

Anthony Elian (Equity Research)

Great. Thank you.

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

You bet.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Jon Arfstrom with RBC. John, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Jon Arfstrom (Managing Director of Financial Services)

Thank you. Good morning. A couple of questions for you. Just on cap markets, is there a way to size the pipeline relative to where it's been historically?

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

We entered the year with 2X the M&A pipe that we had entering the previous year. That's up 50%. The cap markets pipe is larger at this point than at this point in 2025 than it was at this point in 2024. We've onboarded a large quantity of new investment banking talent starting in the back end of Q4 through Q1. We talked about that a lot on the last call. That our increase in full-year non-interest expense gap was primarily related to adding new talent and fee and commodities of focus, which includes Treasury, but is heavily weighted toward investment banking. John, I think all those factors suggest a really healthy business. Although the timing is somewhat difficult to predict, a lot of momentum as you move into the second half of the year.

Jon Arfstrom (Managing Director of Financial Services)

Okay. This is an annoying question for you guys, I know, but just the 1.1 ROA level. I'm not too hung up over it. I think it's time rather than timing. What is different in the P&L later in the year to get there? Is it just your last answer? Is it the banking and Treasury fees and maybe a little better non-interest bearing? Is that it, or is there something else we're missing?

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

I think there's a lot of balance sheet momentum as well, John, and increasingly so the balance sheet's growing, and it's increasingly productive. We've said for a long time that we're generally product agnostic. We want to show up and serve clients in a way that best fulfills their needs, not ours, and that the P&L geography was not our primary concern. It was more onboarding the right relationships and serving them for the entirety of their lifecycle. The current outlook suggests a lot of momentum in balance sheet and a lot of associated momentum in NII. PPNR this quarter is obviously going to be distorted by day count. That's roughly $5 million of pre-tax income, as well as the seasonal comp and benefits expense, which this quarter was $14 million. That's another $20 million of PPNR on a seasonally slower quarter for us.

You should think about as you look toward the back half of the year and achievement of the 1.1.

Jon Arfstrom (Managing Director of Financial Services)

Yeah. Okay. Good. Rob, I want to say yeah, go ahead.

Rob Holmes (Chairman, President and CEO)

No, I was just going to add, look, I think Matt said it well for modeling purposes, but what I would just say is it's the improvement of the entirety of the balance sheet and income statement. We are now viewed very differently in the marketplace as a firm than we were before, three years ago, four years ago, and certainly before I got here. We did not have the right client selection. Those clients banked with us because of rate, not because of value that we brought to them. That is no longer the case. We can compete on them now. We expect to compete on them now. Our best clients appreciate we may show up with an investment banker on a deal that the deal was pushed because of the uncertainty we talked about.

Because you bring that advice and you're there frequently and you're highly valued, they don't care about rate nearly as much. I don't see any stop to that improvement over time. You have fee growth on the other parts of the firm, and you have credit that looks really, really good. We've got peer-leading and industry-leading provisions since I got here, and credit-sized loans are down 11% year over year, and we feel really, really good. That's primarily driven by client selection. I think it's a combination of the entirety of balance sheet income statement, client selection, and improvement of our ability to operate and gain efficiencies.

Jon Arfstrom (Managing Director of Financial Services)

Okay. Got it. I wanted to say this last quarter, but I want to congratulate you on the chairman title. Just curious if anything changes from your point of view with you adding that incremental responsibility.

Rob Holmes (Chairman, President and CEO)

Thank you, John. I think a lot changes. It comes with a lot of responsibility, but it also nothing changes. Bob Stallings went from Chairman to Lead Director. The Lead Director is very important here, like any public company. It is kind of a title, but it is not. What it will do is, look, I got to shape the board. I got to lead the board. I will have much more of a say in who is on the board, what the board focuses on, etc. I am really excited that Bob Stallings is Lead Director, and I have an immense amount of respect and appreciation for him doing so.

Jon Arfstrom (Managing Director of Financial Services)

Okay. Thank you, guys. Thank you very much.

Rob Holmes (Chairman, President and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Matt Olney with Stephens. Matt, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Matt Olney (Research Analyst)

Hey. Thanks, guys. Just want to follow up on the mortgage finance self-funding ratio. I think Matt said 95% in the second quarter. Just remind us of the driver of that. Could we see further improvements throughout the year, or did you just make some adjustments in the first quarter? We'll see the full impact in 2Q.

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

Yeah. We think $5.2 billion of average warehouse loan balances, $4.9 billion of average mortgage finance deposits. We talked a bit earlier about the expansion of products and services that we can offer those clients, as well as the pretty significant growth in deposits outside of that area. We have talked, I think Rob articulated the growth in commercial non-interest bearing up 7% in late quarter, 11% year over year. We also have material growth in interest-bearing deposits with our core commercial clients. We are up $3.4 billion or 26% year over year in interest-bearing deposits, excluding brokered and excluding institutional index. That is while pushing the interest-bearing deposit beta up to 67%.

As we look across the franchise at relationships where we're unable to earn an acceptable return on the aggregate relationship, there's a handful of those that resided in the mortgage finance business where we were paying outsized rate for deposits. Over the last year or so, we've been reducing those, selectively reducing those where we couldn't earn the right to do more business with those clients. You should see us move below the 100% self-funding ratio in the second and third quarter as warehouse balances move higher, and then likely stay a hair below that even in the fourth quarter. It's just a reflection of growth elsewhere on the platform.

Matt Olney (Research Analyst)

Okay. Thanks for that, Matt. One more question. The hedge impact in the quarter we just saw in 1Q, did not see in its closure. Did not know if you saw what the hedge impact was to the NII in the first quarter.

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

It's coming down materially, Matt. I mean, you're going to see the remainder of the hedges generally roll off by the end of the year with the big slug, like I said, coming off in Q3.

Matt Olney (Research Analyst)

Yeah. Okay. Thank you.

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

You bet.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Jared Shaw with Barclays. Jared, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Jared Shaw (Managing Director)

Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks. How should we think about sort of the pace of timing of getting to the 11% CET1? Is that just sort of consistently through the year, or do you feel that there's an opportunity to maybe accelerate that earlier?

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

Yeah. Jared, the 11% isn't meant to suggest that we would push it all the way down to 11%. You should more think about that as a floor. We've talked, I think, quite frequently about what we believe is a real competitive advantage of operating with the most capital, in particular the most TCE. I don't know that I would look for us to push it all the way down to 11%. That just more indicates the amount of flexibility that we have near term. If you look at all the metrics that we put out on September 1, 2021, the only metric that we backed away from is the CET1 guide. We originally had that going down to 9-10%, and just feel like it's prudent to now operate with materially higher levels of regulatory capital and, again, focus on real loss-absorbing capital and TCE.

Jared Shaw (Managing Director)

Okay. All right. Got that. Thanks. Just a little bit of follow-up on Matt's question from before. I guess the hedge costs are what, $12.5 million in fourth quarter? Do you have the actual number for first quarter?

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

It should be around $8 million.

Jared Shaw (Managing Director)

Okay. All right. Thanks. Then just finally, when we look at the 1.1 ROA target or goal, is that before or after preferred dividends?

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

That's all in 1.1 ROA as reported. There's no gimmicks associated with it.

Rob Holmes (Chairman, President and CEO)

Hadn't thought of that.

Jared Shaw (Managing Director)

Okay. All right. That's after paying the preferred dividends.

Matt Scurlock (CFO)

It's before paying the preferred divs. It's the same way we report it every single time, Jared.

Jared Shaw (Managing Director)

Got it. Okay. All right. Thanks a lot.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much. We currently have no further questions, so I will hand back to Rob Holmes for any closing remarks.

Rob Holmes (Chairman, President and CEO)

Just grateful for everybody's interest in the firm and look forward to the next couple of quarters. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much, everyone, for joining. That concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines.