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TC

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered continued momentum: net income $13.7M and diluted EPS $0.79, with net interest income up 7.6% QoQ to $43.4M; efficiency ratio improved to 58.80% and ROAA was 1.13% .
  • Deposit remix was a notable positive: total deposits rose to $4.31B (+7.9% QoQ) and average cost of deposits fell 35 bps QoQ to 3.83%; NIB demand rose to $602.1M (14.0% of deposits) .
  • Credit remained well-controlled though NPLs rose to 0.70% of loans; management highlighted a $5.4M nonaccrual with 35% LTV and “do not anticipate losses” on recent downgrades .
  • 2025 setup: management targets loan growth of $50–$100M per quarter (~8% for the year), maintain ROAA ≥1%, keep efficiency ratio below 60%, and expects NIM roughly ~5 bps higher absent excess cash; core conversion to FIS (mid-2025) should add functionality and lower costs .
  • Catalysts: margin expansion from lower funding costs, continued NIB growth, disciplined loan pricing (SOFR+300), technology-driven efficiency and fee-income scale-up (~$3M/quarter) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Net interest income grew for the 14th consecutive quarter to $43.4M (+7.6% QoQ; +16.4% YoY) as average earning assets rose and funding costs declined post Fed cuts; efficiency ratio improved to 58.80% .
  • Deposits up $316M QoQ; NIB demand increased to $602.1M (14% of deposits), supporting a 35 bps decline in average deposit costs to 3.83% QoQ .
  • Strong loan and deposit pipelines with disciplined pricing (generally SOFR+300 plus fees) sustaining loan yields despite competitive markets; management emphasized turning away lower-spread deals .

What Went Wrong

  • Nonperforming loans increased to $27.9M (0.70% of loans) from 0.62% in Q3 on $6.7M of loans placed on nonaccrual; though management does not anticipate losses on major downgrades, it’s a watch item .
  • Noninterest expense rose to $27.2M (+6.5% QoQ), driven by new hires, bonuses, and reduced salary deferrals; mgmt expects ~$27M per quarter near term and ~4% YoY OpEx growth in 2025 .
  • Excess liquidity diluted NIM by ~5–7 bps in Q4; while much rolled off shortly after year-end, timing remains variable and could temporarily cap margin expansion .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$39.49 (= $37.33 + $2.16) $41.75 (= $38.86 + $2.89) $42.90 (= $40.38 + $2.52) $46.31 (= $43.44 + $2.87)
Basic EPS ($)$0.62 $0.70 $0.85 $0.92
Diluted EPS ($)$0.57 $0.63 $0.74 $0.79
Net Interest Margin (%)3.61% 3.62% 3.73% 3.71%
Efficiency Ratio (%)66.89% 61.39% 59.57% 58.80%
ROAA (%)0.90% 0.97% 1.14% 1.13%

Notes: Total Revenue calculated as Net Interest Income + Noninterest Income using reported figures in each period .

Segment/Portfolio Breakdown (Period-end loans)

Loan Category ($USD Millions)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
C&I$1,361.4 $1,499.3 $1,497.4
CRE – Non-farm, Owner Occ.$499.9 $470.2 $448.1
CRE – Non-farm, Non-Owner$612.3 $611.6 $652.1
Residential$349.5 $339.6 $336.7
Construction/Development/Other$756.6 $825.3 $871.4
Farmland$31.0 $35.7 $30.9
Consumer$2.2 $2.0 $1.9
Municipal & Other$145.2 $106.2 $127.9
Total Loans$3,758.2 $3,889.8 $3,966.4

KPIs and Balance Sheet/Deposits

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Assets ($B)$4.47 $4.63 $4.94
Total Deposits ($B)$3.86 $3.99 $4.31
NIB Demand ($B)$0.464 $0.490 $0.602
Avg Cost of Deposits (%)4.22% 4.18% 3.83%
Cost of Interest-Bearing Deposits (%)4.76% 4.75% 4.33%
NPL / Total Loans (%)0.65% 0.62% 0.70%
ACL / Total Loans (%)1.02% 1.02% 1.02%
Net Charge-offs ($M)$1.83 $(0.06) $0.88
Book Value per Share ($)$26.99 $28.13 $28.65
Tangible Book per Share ($)$25.60 $26.75 $27.29

Estimates vs Actuals (Consensus via S&P Global)

MetricQ4 2024 ConsensusQ4 2024 Actual
Diluted EPS ($)N/A (unavailable)$0.79
Total Revenue ($M)N/A (unavailable)$46.31 (= $43.44 + $2.87)

Note: We attempted to retrieve S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus, but data was unavailable at time of request.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Loan Growth (Quarterly)2025Not explicitly quantified$50–$100M per quarter New/Specified
Loan Growth (Annual)2025Not explicitly quantified8% ($325M) New/Specified
ROAA Target2025~1% target (implicit)≥1% maintained Maintained
Efficiency Ratio2025Sub-60% goal achieved Q3/Q4 Maintain <60%; pursue further improvement Maintained/Enhanced
NIM OutlookNear termNot quantified previously+~5 bps vs Q4 absent excess cash; variability with cash balances New qualitative
Loan-to-Deposit RatioOngoing~95% goal in prior commentary95–96% target reiterated Maintained
Noninterest Expense2025Not quantified~$27M per quarter next few quarters; ~4% YoY increase New specified
Deposit Growth2025Positive trend since JulyMirror loan growth to hold ~95% L/D; NIB up ~$10–$20M per quarter; seasonal 1Q dip New qualitative
Technology/Core ConversionMid-2025Not previously announcedMove from Jack Henry to FIS; cost savings + functionality uplift New
Fee Income2025Building initiatives~$3M per quarter expected; multiple drivers (treasury, wealth, swaps) New quantified

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3)Current Period (Q4)Trend
Deposit Mix & NIB GrowthNIB $464.5M (12.0%) in Q2; $489.8M (12.3%) in Q3; efficiency improving NIB $602.1M (14.0%); avg deposit cost down 35 bps; multiple initiatives across lines of business Improving deposit mix; ongoing NIB build
NIM & Funding CostsNIM 3.62% (Q2); avg deposit cost 4.22%; NIM 3.73% (Q3); avg deposit cost 4.18% NIM 3.71%; avg deposit cost 3.83%; NIM would be ~5–7 bps higher absent excess liquidity Stable-to-improving as costs decline
Loan Growth & Pricing DisciplineC&I/real estate drove growth; loans +$12M Q2; +$131.7M Q3 Pipeline strong; insist on SOFR+300 pricing; turning away lower-spread deals Disciplined growth; spreads defended
Technology/Operational EfficiencySub-60% efficiency achieved ahead of schedule in Q3; 1% improvement initiative Core conversion to FIS mid-2025; expected cost savings and functionality Efficiency initiatives deepening
Credit Quality & Portfolio DetailNPL to loans rose to 0.65% in Q2 (CRE relationship); Q3 NPL 0.62% NPL 0.70%; $6.7M new nonaccruals; $5.4M commercial with 35% LTV; mgmt does not anticipate losses Generally stable with isolated items
Fee Income BuildQ2 fee growth from SBIC; Q3 noninterest income dipped on securities losses ~$3M/quarter targeted near term; treasury, wealth, swaps momentum Scaling from diverse drivers

Management Commentary

  • “We are proud to achieve 14 consecutive positive quarters of net interest income growth... efficiency ratio to 58.8%” — Bart Caraway (CEO) .
  • “Net interest income was up $3.1M versus the prior quarter... cost of funds improved materially, falling 35 bps... margin would have been about 5 bps higher without excess cash” — John McWhorter (CFO) .
  • “We will maintain ROAA of 1% or better... sustain loan growth targets of $50–$100M per quarter (~8% for 2025) and keep efficiency ratio below 60%” — Bart Caraway (CEO) .
  • “We’ve elected to change cores from Jack Henry to FIS... save money and gain functionality... conversion mid-year” — John McWhorter (CFO) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Loan yield and margin: management outperformed modeling assumptions on both loan yields and cost of funds; expects margin to be ~5 bps higher absent excess cash, and improved as L/D moves to ~95–96% .
  • Pricing discipline: most new credits targeted at SOFR+300 plus fees; approvals below that require CEO/CFO sign-off and are rare .
  • Expenses: near-term noninterest expense ~$27M per quarter; ~4% YoY increase expected; some 2H25 technology savings anticipated .
  • Fee income: treasury growing 50–60% annually (from small base), wealth ~$50K/month, swaps/loan fees provide margin hedge; targeting ~$3M quarterly noninterest income .
  • Deposits: multiple initiatives across lines; NIB demand grew monthly since July; expect steady incremental NIB gains ($10–$20M per quarter) with typical 1Q seasonal dip .
  • Strategy tone: confident on continuing quarterly earnings growth; balanced AL profile leaves bank “somewhat indifferent” to exact number of Fed cuts .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at time of request; comparison to estimates cannot be provided. Based on management’s commentary, they expect future quarters to be better than Q4, supported by margin stability, expense control, and fee income scaling .
  • Implication: sell-side models may need to reflect lower deposit costs, modest margin uplift (~5 bps absent excess cash), and ~$27M quarterly OpEx near term; incorporate 8% loan growth and fee income trajectory ($3M/quarter) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Deposit remix and cost decline are driving earnings: average deposit cost fell 35 bps QoQ to 3.83%; efficiency ratio improved to 58.80%, supporting durable profitability .
  • Margin set to inch higher: NIM would have been ~5–7 bps higher without excess liquidity; as cash normalizes and L/D approaches ~95–96%, NIM should benefit .
  • Growth with discipline: loan pricing anchored at SOFR+300 plus fees; pipeline strength but willingness to turn away deals below thresholds should protect spreads .
  • Credit watch but manageable: NPL ratio rose to 0.70%; management does not anticipate losses on the $5.4M nonaccrual with 35% LTV; charge-offs at 0.09% of average loans annualized .
  • Technology catalyst: mid-2025 core conversion (FIS) expected to lower costs and broaden treasury functionality, aiding deposit growth and fee income .
  • Fee income scaling: treasury, wealth, swaps and loan fees support ~$3M/quarter noninterest income, providing diversification and margin hedge .
  • Near-term trading lens: watch Q1 seasonal deposit dip and excess cash effects on NIM; medium-term thesis supported by NIB growth, disciplined lending, sub-60% efficiency, and technology-driven operating leverage .

Additional Relevant Q4 Press Releases

  • Earnings release schedule: company reported Q4/FY results on Jan 22, 2025; call Jan 23, 2025 .
  • Preferred dividend: Board declared $17.25 per share quarterly dividend on 6.75% Series A Convertible Non‑Cumulative Preferred Stock, payable Jan 15, 2025 (record Dec 31, 2024) .

Prior Quarter References used for trend analysis: Q3 2024 earnings release and 8‑K , Q2 2024 earnings release and 8‑K .