TC
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 delivered continued momentum: net income $13.7M and diluted EPS $0.79, with net interest income up 7.6% QoQ to $43.4M; efficiency ratio improved to 58.80% and ROAA was 1.13% .
- Deposit remix was a notable positive: total deposits rose to $4.31B (+7.9% QoQ) and average cost of deposits fell 35 bps QoQ to 3.83%; NIB demand rose to $602.1M (14.0% of deposits) .
- Credit remained well-controlled though NPLs rose to 0.70% of loans; management highlighted a $5.4M nonaccrual with 35% LTV and “do not anticipate losses” on recent downgrades .
- 2025 setup: management targets loan growth of $50–$100M per quarter (~8% for the year), maintain ROAA ≥1%, keep efficiency ratio below 60%, and expects NIM roughly ~5 bps higher absent excess cash; core conversion to FIS (mid-2025) should add functionality and lower costs .
- Catalysts: margin expansion from lower funding costs, continued NIB growth, disciplined loan pricing (SOFR+300), technology-driven efficiency and fee-income scale-up (~$3M/quarter) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Net interest income grew for the 14th consecutive quarter to $43.4M (+7.6% QoQ; +16.4% YoY) as average earning assets rose and funding costs declined post Fed cuts; efficiency ratio improved to 58.80% .
- Deposits up $316M QoQ; NIB demand increased to $602.1M (14% of deposits), supporting a 35 bps decline in average deposit costs to 3.83% QoQ .
- Strong loan and deposit pipelines with disciplined pricing (generally SOFR+300 plus fees) sustaining loan yields despite competitive markets; management emphasized turning away lower-spread deals .
What Went Wrong
- Nonperforming loans increased to $27.9M (0.70% of loans) from 0.62% in Q3 on $6.7M of loans placed on nonaccrual; though management does not anticipate losses on major downgrades, it’s a watch item .
- Noninterest expense rose to $27.2M (+6.5% QoQ), driven by new hires, bonuses, and reduced salary deferrals; mgmt expects ~$27M per quarter near term and ~4% YoY OpEx growth in 2025 .
- Excess liquidity diluted NIM by ~5–7 bps in Q4; while much rolled off shortly after year-end, timing remains variable and could temporarily cap margin expansion .
Financial Results
Notes: Total Revenue calculated as Net Interest Income + Noninterest Income using reported figures in each period .
Segment/Portfolio Breakdown (Period-end loans)
KPIs and Balance Sheet/Deposits
Estimates vs Actuals (Consensus via S&P Global)
Note: We attempted to retrieve S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus, but data was unavailable at time of request.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We are proud to achieve 14 consecutive positive quarters of net interest income growth... efficiency ratio to 58.8%” — Bart Caraway (CEO) .
- “Net interest income was up $3.1M versus the prior quarter... cost of funds improved materially, falling 35 bps... margin would have been about 5 bps higher without excess cash” — John McWhorter (CFO) .
- “We will maintain ROAA of 1% or better... sustain loan growth targets of $50–$100M per quarter (~8% for 2025) and keep efficiency ratio below 60%” — Bart Caraway (CEO) .
- “We’ve elected to change cores from Jack Henry to FIS... save money and gain functionality... conversion mid-year” — John McWhorter (CFO) .
Q&A Highlights
- Loan yield and margin: management outperformed modeling assumptions on both loan yields and cost of funds; expects margin to be ~5 bps higher absent excess cash, and improved as L/D moves to ~95–96% .
- Pricing discipline: most new credits targeted at SOFR+300 plus fees; approvals below that require CEO/CFO sign-off and are rare .
- Expenses: near-term noninterest expense ~$27M per quarter; ~4% YoY increase expected; some 2H25 technology savings anticipated .
- Fee income: treasury growing 50–60% annually (from small base), wealth ~$50K/month, swaps/loan fees provide margin hedge; targeting ~$3M quarterly noninterest income .
- Deposits: multiple initiatives across lines; NIB demand grew monthly since July; expect steady incremental NIB gains ($10–$20M per quarter) with typical 1Q seasonal dip .
- Strategy tone: confident on continuing quarterly earnings growth; balanced AL profile leaves bank “somewhat indifferent” to exact number of Fed cuts .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at time of request; comparison to estimates cannot be provided. Based on management’s commentary, they expect future quarters to be better than Q4, supported by margin stability, expense control, and fee income scaling .
- Implication: sell-side models may need to reflect lower deposit costs, modest margin uplift (~5 bps absent excess cash), and ~$27M quarterly OpEx near term; incorporate
8% loan growth and fee income trajectory ($3M/quarter) .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Deposit remix and cost decline are driving earnings: average deposit cost fell 35 bps QoQ to 3.83%; efficiency ratio improved to 58.80%, supporting durable profitability .
- Margin set to inch higher: NIM would have been ~5–7 bps higher without excess liquidity; as cash normalizes and L/D approaches ~95–96%, NIM should benefit .
- Growth with discipline: loan pricing anchored at SOFR+300 plus fees; pipeline strength but willingness to turn away deals below thresholds should protect spreads .
- Credit watch but manageable: NPL ratio rose to 0.70%; management does not anticipate losses on the $5.4M nonaccrual with 35% LTV; charge-offs at 0.09% of average loans annualized .
- Technology catalyst: mid-2025 core conversion (FIS) expected to lower costs and broaden treasury functionality, aiding deposit growth and fee income .
- Fee income scaling: treasury, wealth, swaps and loan fees support ~$3M/quarter noninterest income, providing diversification and margin hedge .
- Near-term trading lens: watch Q1 seasonal deposit dip and excess cash effects on NIM; medium-term thesis supported by NIB growth, disciplined lending, sub-60% efficiency, and technology-driven operating leverage .
Additional Relevant Q4 Press Releases
- Earnings release schedule: company reported Q4/FY results on Jan 22, 2025; call Jan 23, 2025 .
- Preferred dividend: Board declared $17.25 per share quarterly dividend on 6.75% Series A Convertible Non‑Cumulative Preferred Stock, payable Jan 15, 2025 (record Dec 31, 2024) .
Prior Quarter References used for trend analysis: Q3 2024 earnings release and 8‑K , Q2 2024 earnings release and 8‑K .