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Trulieve Cannabis Corp. (TCNNF)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered resilient top-line and margin performance: revenue $288.2M, gross margin 58.9%, adjusted EBITDA $102.7M, cash from operations $76.8M, and free cash flow $64.4M .
  • Results vs S&P Global consensus: revenue slightly beat ($288.2M vs $287.5M), adjusted/normalized EPS modestly beat (-$0.07 vs -$0.077), while S&P’s EBITDA definition showed a miss ($84.8M vs $95.9M)*; company-reported adjusted EBITDA was $102.7M, up 7% YoY .
  • Guidance: Q4 revenue targeted up low single digits vs Q3; 2025 cash from operations at least $250M maintained; 2025 capex raised to up to $45M; planned redemption of $368M senior secured notes due 2026 in December 2025 .
  • Key catalyst/narrative: tax reform/280E resolution; uncertain tax position liability rose to $616M, management reiterated that “without the effect of 280E, Q3 2025 net income would have been positive,” and continues customary tax payments without 280E until final resolution .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Operating expense discipline drove operating income expansion: OpEx fell to $127.6M from $172.7M YoY and operating income rose to $42.2M from $0.6M YoY .
  • Durable retail demand and product innovation: sold ~12.5M branded products; loyalty members reached 820k and accounted for 77% of transactions; launched Roll One Clutch AIO vapes in FL (sold out in <2 weeks) and expanded Onward/Upward THC beverages .
  • Strong liquidity and cash generation: quarter-end cash $458M; CFO $76.8M; FCF $64.4M; announced planned redemption of $368M notes (debt $478M at ~7.9%) .

Quoted management:

  • “Our 2025 strategic plan is delivering results…Significant flexibility in our core business and strong cash generation continue to set us apart” — Kim Rivers, CEO .

What Went Wrong

  • Sequential softness consistent with seasonal pattern: revenue declined 5% QoQ and gross margin compressed to 58.9% from 60.6% QoQ; adjusted EBITDA fell to $102.7M from $110.6M QoQ .
  • Tax burden still dominates GAAP results: net loss attributable to common shareholders was $26.8M with $53.0M tax provision; uncertain tax position liability grew to $616M (with $580M related to the 280E challenge) .
  • Estimates optics on EBITDA: S&P’s EBITDA print of $84.8M* missed consensus $95.9M*, despite company-adjusted EBITDA $102.7M (36% margin); non-GAAP items (campaign contributions $6.3M, non-recurring costs $3.8M) affected adjusted-to-GAAP bridge .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)297.8 302.1 288.2
Gross Margin %61.5% 60.6% 58.9%
Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)149.9 130.3 127.6
Operating Income ($USD Millions)33.3 52.6 42.2
Net Loss - Continuing Ops ($USD Millions)(32.1) (15.8) (23.7)
EPS - Continuing Ops ($USD)(0.16) (0.07) (0.11)
Adjusted EPS ($USD)(0.02) (0.04) (0.07)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)76.0 96.8 81.3
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)109.2 110.6 102.7
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)50.7 86.1 76.8
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)33.9 74.5 64.4

Segment mix

SegmentQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Retail Revenue ($USD Millions)282.0 284.0 271.0
Retail as % of Revenue95% 94% 94%

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Branded products units sold (Millions)12.0+ 12.5+ 12.5+
Loyalty program members (Thousands)625 725 820
Traffic YoY+7% +8% +6%
Customer retention (companywide)66% 67% 68%
Customer retention (medical-only)75% 76% 76%
Dispensary count (period-end)229 231 232
Cash and Equivalents ($USD Millions)329 401 458
Uncertain tax position liability ($USD Millions)501 560 616

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue vs prior quarterQ4 2025 vs Q3 2025n/aUp low single digits vs Q3 New
Revenue vs prior quarterQ3 2025 vs Q2 2025Down mid single digits vs Q2 (issued with Q2 results) Actual -4.6% QoQ (288.2 vs 302.1) Achieved directional guide
Cash from Operations (annual)FY 2025At least $250M At least $250M Maintained
Capital Expenditures (annual)FY 2025Up to $40M Up to $45M Raised
Debt actionsDec 2025n/aRedeem $368M senior secured notes due 2026 New action

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: A Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was not available in the document catalog at the time of this analysis; themes summarized from management commentary and investor materials .

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025)Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Tax/280E challengeUncertain tax position $501M; refunds claimed; “without 280E, Q1 net income would have been positive” Uncertain tax position $560M; refunds received ~$114M; positive net income without 280E Uncertain tax position $616M; $580M relates to 280E; deposits $89M; positive net income without 280E Liability rising; resolution still pending
Branded products and beveragesLaunch of Onward THC beverage; >12M units; brand portfolio emphasis Expanded Onward (Florida/Illinois), launched Upward energy drinks; >12.5M units Broader beverage distribution; 5 new 10mg flavors; >12.5M units Expansion continuing
Retail network and footprint229 dispensaries; additions in AZ/FL/OH 231 dispensaries; additions in FL/OH 232 dispensaries; opened Cincinnati, OH; relocation in AZ Steady growth
Customer loyalty and trafficLoyalty 625k; traffic +7% YoY Loyalty 725k; traffic +8% YoY Loyalty 820k; traffic +6% YoY; loyalty share 77% of transactions Loyalty strengthening
Technology/appn/an/aLaunched new mobile app in Florida to enhance digital engagement New initiative
Debt/financing actionsDebt ~$480M (7.9%) Debt $478M (7.9%) Plan to redeem $368M notes due 2026 in Dec 2025 Deleveraging action announced

Management Commentary

  • “Our 2025 strategic plan is delivering results, with demonstrable progress on reform, customers, distribution, and branded products…strong cash generation continue to set us apart” — Kim Rivers, CEO .
  • “With strong margins and cash flow, scaled operations, and flexibility across our platform, Trulieve is uniquely positioned as an industry leader” — Q2 commentary .
  • “Strong margins and cash flow achieved…demonstrate our commitment to operational excellence” — Q1 commentary .

Q&A Highlights

A Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was not available in the catalog to extract Q&A themes at this time; we will update this section when the transcript is posted .

Estimates Context

MetricQ3 2025 ActualQ3 2025 ConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($USD)$288,187,000*$287,455,990*+$731,010 (Beat)*
Primary EPS ($USD)-$0.070*-$0.077*+$0.007 (Beat)*
EBITDA ($USD)$84,787,000*$95,871,890*-$11,084,890 (Miss)*
  • Company-reported GAAP EPS (continuing operations) was -$0.11 and adjusted EPS -$0.07 ; company-reported EBITDA was $81.3M and adjusted EBITDA $102.7M (36% margin) .
  • Values marked with an asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Margin and cost discipline remain the differentiator: SG&A and total OpEx reduction supported 58.9% gross margin and $42.2M operating income despite seasonal revenue softness .
  • Cash strength plus note redemption lowers risk: $458M cash and planned $368M notes redemption signal proactive balance sheet management and potential interest expense relief into 2026 .
  • Loyalty-driven demand and product innovation underpin traffic: loyalty share at 77%, traffic +6% YoY, sell-outs in new vape products, and continued beverage expansion should support retail throughput .
  • Watch the 280E resolution path: uncertain tax liability grew to $616M; management indicates profitability absent 280E—headline risk persists but resolution could be a multi-quarter catalyst .
  • Near-term trading: modest beats on revenue/EPS vs consensus but EBITDA optics mixed under S&P’s definition; expect focus on Q4 low-single-digit revenue growth guide and December note redemption timeline .
  • Medium-term thesis: scaled footprint (232 dispensaries), strong brands, and improving non-GAAP profitability (adj. EBITDA margin 36%) position Trulieve well if federal reform (rescheduling/SAFER/States 2.0) advances .
  • Monitor capex and cash conversion: capex guide raised to $45M; sustained CFO trajectory toward ≥$250M for FY 2025 remains a critical execution milestone .

Additional documents reviewed:

  • Q3 2025 8-K press release and exhibits .
  • Q2 2025 8-K press release .
  • Q1 2025 8-K press release .

S&P Global estimates disclaimer: Values marked with an asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global.